Ryan Lizza, traditional DC journalist, on the Political Scene podcast on Friday (at around 9:00):
[…]The Republicans keep expanding the number of races where they’re competitive. New Hampshire looks like it’s going to be competitive for Republicans now with Scott Brown, remember Scott Brown the Senator from Massachusetts […]
Harry Enten, writing on Friday for the new 538, which just launched:
But if Brown, a Republican, decides to run, he will face tough odds against the seat’s current occupant, Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen. She’s a rare example of a popular Democratic senator in a swing state. The latest Boston Herald/Suffolk University survey gave Shaheen a 13 percentage-point advantage, which matches a January WMUR University of New Hampshire Granite State poll pegging Shaheen’s lead at 10 points.
Indeed, there is little evidence that voters want to replace Shaheen. People like her. Shaheen’s net favorable rating is +16 points. Compare that with endangered Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan of North Carolina, whose net approval rating is -9 points.
But forget Shaheen’s strength; Brown is weak. His net favorability, an average -10 points in the two polls, shows that more Granite Staters dislike him than like him. In fact, Brown’s net favorable ratings are lower than every other GOP contender included in the January UNH poll. A less famous but more well-liked nominee might give Shaheen a stronger challenge.
I’ll take the 538 approach every fucking day and twice on Sunday, because at least they look at a goddam poll instead of just pumping the latest DC narrative, which in this case is that Democrats are going to lose the Senate.