I love it when you call me Big Poppa

There’s one thing I do agree with the teahadists about: it’s fucking amazing how much establishment media favors the wise Burkean daddy Republicans (Romney, McCain, Christie, Jeb) over the wild-eyed tea party bucks (Rand Paul, all the nuts who ran against Romney in 2012).

Jen Rubin is en easy target, she wrote eight anti-Perry pieces in one day during the 2012 election, and she’s already full-time on the anti-Rand Paul beat. Joe and Mika are shameless shills for Chris Christie. Also too, Jebmentum:

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227 replies
  1. 1
    Hawes says:

    Bush vs Clinton?

    I fucking hate re-runs…

  2. 2
    Marc says:

    Rubin’s also transferred her affections to Chris Christie. Given her track record, this is excellent news for anybody running against Chris Christie.

  3. 3
    Shakezula says:

    It’s like watching kids narrate the games they’re playing with their toys. “And here comes … SUPER JEB! ‘I’ll save you ‘Merica!’ Whoooosh!”

  4. 4
    eric says:

    before I hear anyone tell me how strong a GOP candidate will be in the general, show me the states that will flip from blue to red because of that candidate as opposed to a generic R. The actual national percentage means nothing, it is about the electoral college. Strikes me that the GOP needs someone that speaks “rustbelt” to put it in play. A generic Bush or southern tool may get the establishment and the teahadists, but that is not enough. They have to win something they did not win before. Maybe it is Jeb, but I dont see why it should be. I would be more inclined to believe in Portman or Kasich based upon regional appeal, notwithstanding their own weaknesses as candidtates because, lets face it, all candidates have warts — the issue is whether people will care.

  5. 5
    Violet says:

    There was a picture of Jeb on some article the other day. He was addressing some gathering. He’s currently wearing these sort of hipster glasses. I don’t know if that’s supposed to make him look young and smart, but he certainly looks different than his brother. I doubt that’s by accident.

    I really don’t think Jeb would do nearly as well as they think he would. Yes, let’s return to the Bush years. Which one? The first one who “wouldn’t finish the war” and lost after one term or the one who got us into two wars he left unfinished and tanked the economy? Both are winners!

  6. 6
    shortstop says:

    Establishment media AND establishment in general. The Kochs and tea party PACs notwithstanding, the lion’s share of donor dollars go to the wise Burkean daddies. That’s why Romney was always going to win, no matter how badly he got beaten up in the primaries. Even though their motivations are eye roll-causing, these guys are right about Jeb being the sole survivor if he comes in.

  7. 7
    Belafon says:

    @Hawes: As a Cowboys fan, I loved it when they beat the Bills twice in a row. And then Dallas beat Buffalo in hockey.

    I’d love for a Clinton to crush a Bush.

  8. 8
    Alex S. says:

    So apparently they are resigned to Christie’s demise. Now Jeb Bush is really the only one they’ve got left. Neither Paul nor Walker are part of the republican mainstream.

  9. 9
    feebog says:

    As the Outlaw Jersey Whale slowly sinks under the weight of multiple scandals, the Republican money boys and the Villagers are desperately looking for their knight on a white horse. The best they can come up with is a tired retread on a spavined nag. Years ago, when I was a boy, we hit a skunk with our ’55 station wagon. The car smelled to high heaven for months. No matter how much we wash the undercarriage, the stink remained. I think Jeb will suffer from the same kind of long term stink created by his big brother. Jeb will be putting forth the same lousy policies GWB championed, and we all know how that turned out. The American people aren’t going to buy it.

  10. 10
    Hunter Gathers says:

    Bush 2016: Third Time’s The Charm?

  11. 11
    srv says:

    If Jeb took up coke and drinking, found Jesus, had a head injury or two, I think he could give Hillary a run for her money.

    BTW, Hillary-talk is getting noticed by the country folk. They are taking it as though she had a giant strap on and this would be a worse humiliation than Obama. There’s no dialing back, these people are full blast to the Wingularity.

  12. 12
    barry says:

    Off topic, but John Harwood’s father was a big wig at the Washington Post. Mark Halperin’s father was a big wig in the Nixon’s NSA under Kissinger. Is there any doubt that our media thrives of nepotism and connections.

  13. 13
    barry says:

    Off topic, but John Harwood’s father was a big wig at the Washington Post. Mark Halperin’s father was a big wig in the Nixon’s NSA under Kissinger. Is there any doubt that our media thrives of nepotism and connections.

  14. 14
    Bobby Thomson says:

    There is a logic behind a Bush primary candidacy, because TX and FL will both have early primaries.

    But the word “if” is doing a lot of work in Halperin’s post. I don’t get the sense watching Jeb that he will do the necessary work. Maybe not Fred Thompson levels of laziness, but that same kind of vibe.

  15. 15
    Fuzzy says:

    As a die hard Democrat I still feel Jeb could beat Hillary. They both have so much baggage that the dirty politics of the GOP could win the popular vote and the SCOTUS would certainly listen to a lawsuit just like last time.

  16. 16
    jibeaux says:

    @barry: That’s not o/t at all.

  17. 17
    Jewish Steel says:

    I troll my local Tea Party whackaloons posing as an establishment Republican figuring it would get under their skin more than as an Obot. It does!

  18. 18
    Omnes Omnibus says:

    @eric:

    before I hear anyone tell me how strong a GOP candidate will be in the general, show me the states that will flip from blue to red because of that candidate as opposed to a generic R.

    I have been beating this drum for a while now. I offer it as: which Obama 2012 states will this candidate put into play in the general? If it isn’t enough to give the R 270 EC votes, the rest doesn’t matter.

  19. 19
    eric says:

    @Bobby Thomson: and lets be clear it is not as if the crazies will give him a free pass because he is a bush. where has he been publicly regarding obamacare and the debt crisis — Cruz and Paul fought the good fight, jebby did not bother getting his hands dirty.

  20. 20
    Roger Moore says:

    @Hawes:

    Bush vs Clinton?

    But it would have a great slogan

    2016: The Second Time as Farce

  21. 21
    jibeaux says:

    @Fuzzy: I don’t really agree with that, but just wanted to say that the prospect of Clinton v. Bush 2016! makes me want to jump in front of a train.

  22. 22

    It’s not amazing. The media (specifically, national level journalists as a group) are rich Republicans. They’re the people who think America is a ‘center-right nation’, as I was informed by CNN when Obama’s win on election night was announced. They couldn’t believe it. They’re lazy, arrogant, and mean-spirited people like Brokaw who think the poor should suffer because that will build character. The Tea Party is hurting their brand, and they’re desperately groping for a Reagan figure who can tell the whole country that the poor deserve to suffer and be wildly popular for it.

    @Violet:
    I don’t think it matters. The Democratic candidate in 2016 will be running against the Republican Party, not the Republican candidate. Everyone – including conservatives – will judge the Republican candidate based on the Republicans around him talking about legitimate rape and Hispanics understanding that being compared to dogs is a good thing if they only spoke proper English. The only way the Republican candidate will be noticed is if he is even worse than the lunatics surrounding him.

    @shortstop:

    The Kochs and tea party PACs notwithstanding

    That is a mighty big notwithstanding.

  23. 23
    jibeaux says:

    @Omnes Omnibus: I think the sharper ones have had that thought, concluded that there are none, and have gone on to their next line of wankery, like the two guys above — who can win the primary? Unlike the general, someone from their side pretty much has to win the primary somehow, so it’s a safer form of navel gazing.

  24. 24
    DougJ says:

    @Jewish Steel:

    Likewise, I’ll admit that “No Labels” bugs me more than Fox does.

  25. 25
    eric says:

    @Omnes Omnibus: the EC math is all that matters, but to point this out is to make themselves less relevant as opinion makers. I have seen it argued that Hillary puts a red state (WV) or two in play.

  26. 26
    shortstop says:

    @Jewish Steel: That’s some top-notch entertainment for you outside of recumbent bike season. Well played.

    @Alex S.: Agreed, but if Jeb doesn’t get in, I can’t help believing it’s going to be Walker, mainstream cred or no. Who else is there?

    Hillary would spank him from here to Sunday, of course.

  27. 27
    Roger Moore says:

    @feebog:

    the Republican money boys and the Villagers are desperately looking for their knight on a white horse.

    Did somebody say White Horse? Willard’s your man!

  28. 28
    OzarkHillbilly says:

    @Hunter Gathers: Nostradamus thought so.

  29. 29
    yam says:

    I’ll vote for Jeb when W apologizes for Iraq.

  30. 30
    eric says:

    I think that the Kochs and ALEC have it figured out: energize the crazies to win local races by spending locally and nationally. keep the House and win the states and with the Senate set up the way it is, the nation is center-right by default.

  31. 31
    Amir Khalid says:

    It’s not about Jeb Bush, is it? It’s about his family, who haven’t demonstrated any real gift for the presidency despite two members winning the office. Jeb could acquire enough fire in his belly to fly by jet propulsion, and it still wouldn’t help his chances of making them the first American family with three presidents.

  32. 32
    kuvasz says:

    Please Mr. Bush, run for president in 2016, so we can drive a stake right through your fucking heart and be done with your whole family.

    campaign motto….. Another Bush, Another Recession!

  33. 33
    Cervantes says:

    Wait …

    it’s fucking amazing how much establishment media favors the wise Burkean daddy Republicans (Romney, McCain, Christie, Jeb) over the wild-eyed tea party bucks (Rand Paul, all the nuts who ran against Romney in 2012).

    You’re amazed by “how much establishment media favors” establishment candidates?

    In other news: Christians favor Christianity, water is wet, and sunshine on my shoulders makes me happy.

  34. 34
    jibeaux says:

    @Amir Khalid: Agreed. Jeb would stand a real chance at taking the 2000 presidency, if the primary voters had gone with Dumb instead of Dumber, but I don’t think “third time’s the charm” is going to work as a slogan.

  35. 35
    jibeaux says:

    @Amir Khalid: Agreed. Jeb would stand a real chance at taking the 2000 presidency, if the primary voters had gone with Dumb instead of Dumber, but I don’t think “third time’s the charm” is going to work as a slogan.

  36. 36
    Roger Moore says:

    @DougJ:

    Likewise, I’ll admit that “No Labels” bugs me more than Fox does.

    There’s somebody in my neighborhood who has a “No Labels” yard sign, and I get mad every time I see it. It represents an amazingly smug, lazy view of politics that is worse in a lot of ways than the knuckledraggers of the far right.

  37. 37
    p.a. says:

    Of course I’ll vote (D) but Hillary is too old, too Lanny Davis-DLC, headed a crappy primary campaign in ’07-’08; at first lazy and overconfident, then sneakily racist.

  38. 38
    Roger Moore says:

    @yam:

    I’ll vote for Jeb when W apologizes for Iraq.

    I demand a traditional Japanese-style apology.

  39. 39
    MomSense says:

    @Hunter Gathers:

    Bush 2016: Third Time’s The Charm?

    I’m hoping for Bush 2016: Three strikes you’re out!

  40. 40
    Napoleon says:

    @barry:

    Harwood’s dad, I have read, was a huge pusher of RFK back in the day.

  41. 41
    brettvk says:

    I wouldn’t be surprised if Romney makes another run if it looks like Walker and Jeb are the best prospects. He could argue that he can fix all the things that he did wrong in 2012. I’ll bet Ann is thinking about it.

  42. 42
    shortstop says:

    @DougJ: Me, too. This is my father-in-law, who can’t speak intelligibly on any major issue but somehow, despite his courageous independence and refusal to be put in a box, votes Republican every damn time.

  43. 43
    eric says:

    @Roger Moore: Ideology matters and people arent going to give it up because it is messy. these people want the apple cart to go smoothly so their returns on their 401ks get nothing but bigger. they are about income and wealth and doing nothing that would harm THEIR income and wealth even if others suffer or if other non-monetary issues matter. they are, to put it crassly, whores to Mammon.

  44. 44
    Hill Dweller says:

    If the Twitter machine is to be believed, Sochi is a shit hole, and much of the construction isn’t completed. What will the wingnuts do if their hero Putin looks incompetent?

  45. 45
    Cervantes says:

    @Roger Moore:

    It represents an amazingly smug, lazy view of politics that is worse in a lot of ways than the knuckledraggers of the far right.

    You could even say that “No Labels” is a label.

  46. 46
    Gex says:

    @Hill Dweller: Blame the gays.

  47. 47
    Jewish Steel says:

    @DougJ: My reasoning exactly. ETA: I put a monacle in my eye to get in character.

    @shortstop: I try not to bitch about the weather, but bicycling season seems like 10,000 years ago.

  48. 48
    jibeaux says:

    @Cervantes: “No Labels”, above all, makes me think of a budget clothing brand that’s trying to be edgy. Seriously, doesn’t Sears carry “No Labels” or was it J.C. Penney?

  49. 49
    Cervantes says:

    @Napoleon:

    Harwood’s dad, I have read, was a huge pusher of RFK back in the day.

    And his mom.

    Young John himself appeared in an advertisement for RFK.

  50. 50
    Jewish Steel says:

    @jibeaux: Doesn’t Poochie wear No Labels?

  51. 51
    Woody says:

    Jeb Bush is the most likely Republican candidate. By a lot.

    Our rightwing brethren regard the W Bush Years as wonderful until he was betrayed by the Wrong People.

    The Village courtiers were in solid with the W Bush White House.

    The American nobles know for a fact that the Bush family will always deliver to their patrons. They always have.

    The Bush family feature important friendships, business associations, and issue networks. They are capable and successful as hell. The only question is 2016 or 2020.

  52. 52
    Tommy says:

    @Roger Moore: I did something years ago I am not proud of. I stole a flag from a school. I often fly it where I live. It is red. Stars on it. Told I am a communist to fly it. I am like this is the flag for the District of Columbia! You know, our nations Capital.

  53. 53
    Omnes Omnibus says:

    @shortstop: I just cannot see Walker as viable in the GOP primaries or a national election. Of course, part of my reaction to him is visceral at this point, so my opinion may be less than reliable. He has had ongoing corruption investigations looking into him since he was elected; running a national campaign will only intensify the scrutiny and I am sure that he is dirty. He is under 50% approval in his home state right now; his reelection is not assured ( if he does win, it will improve his chances in the GOP primaries). He is a college drop out; Not being snobbish, but when is the last time a person without a degree been a major party candidate (Truamn?)? Finally, he has less personality and charisma than Rick Santorum.

  54. 54
    jibeaux says:

    A little tidbit from TPM:

    Democratic pollster PPP showed last week that Huckabee could have some momentum. Following Huckabee’s widely mocked remark about birth control and the female libido, a survey from PPP last showed the former Arkansas governor as the GOP’s top choice for 2016.

    We need to use Cleek’s law to our advantage….

  55. 55
    Gex says:

    @jibeaux: No labels makes me think of the 30 Rock episode where the indie, “locally made” jeans were really manufactured by Halliburton. To me “No Labels” reeks of the type of Republican who wants all the same policies as the Teahadis, but with soundbite, focus group tested wording so they don’t have to be embarrassed by the misogyny, racism, homophobia, and xenophobia of the Tea Party.

  56. 56
    Cluttered Mind says:

    Bush 2016: Come on baby I only hit you cause I love you, give me one more chance?

  57. 57
    Patrick says:

    @barry:

    Nepotism is bad, no doubt. But John Harwod is literally the only one I can stand at CNBC. The rest of them hate Obama with a passion and really belong on FoxNews.

  58. 58
    Betty Cracker says:

    @Omnes Omnibus: You’re right. Jeb(!) could win FL’s 29 EC votes, but I wouldn’t count on it, especially if HRC is the Democratic nominee. They love her down here. And even if the Rs got FL, that wouldn’t be enough.

  59. 59
    Cluttered Mind says:

    Bush 2016: You survived the happenstance and the coincidence, but are you ready for the enemy action?

    I could do this all day. It’s a gold mine…I’d better stop.

  60. 60
    Cluttered Mind says:

    Okay, I lied, one more. Bush 2016: Because bad things always happen in threes.

  61. 61
    Patrick says:

    If @JebBush suddenly got massive fire in the belly 2 B prez & spent ’14 making smart moves, he would be WAY ahead in the invisible primary

    Perhaps. But in reality, how would Jeb survive Iowa and then NH? The Bush name isn’t exactly popular in the midwest regardless of party.

  62. 62
    Roger Moore says:

    @Cervantes:

    You could even say that “No Labels” is a label.

    One that I’m sure has been extensively focus-group tested. That is, indeed one of the things I hate most about it; it’s a slick political insider’s attempt to produce something that’s supposed to appeal to people who hate slick political insiders, and it works. The people who fall for it just have no grasp of what’s going on and see their willful ignorance as virtuous, even as it makes them fall prey to people they claim to despise.

  63. 63
    mainmata says:

    @eric: Scott Walker likes how you think LOL!

  64. 64
    Fester Addams says:

    @Hill Dweller: Easy. Put a (D) in front of his name.

  65. 65
    jibeaux says:

    @Cluttered Mind: Bush 2016: Because Food On Your Family

  66. 66
    Alex S. says:

    @MomSense:

    Honestly, that might be what Jeb is thinking. He’d rather want his son to run in 20 years and he knows that if he were to run, he’d likely lose to Hillary which means that the Bush name is dead even in the GOP.

  67. 67
    Paul in KY says:

    @Shakezula: Like that characterization.

  68. 68
    Roger Moore says:

    @Hill Dweller:

    What will the wingnuts do if their hero Putin looks incompetent?

    The same thing they do when one Republican candidate after another crashes and burns on contact with reality: find a new mancrush. It’s not like there’s a shortage of authoritarians for them to crush on.

  69. 69
    Paul in KY says:

    Just can’t see Jeb running, as his wife is crazier than Kitty Dukakis (RIP) was.

  70. 70
    Napoleon says:

    @Cervantes:

    Young John himself appeared in an advertisement for RFK.

    That is an interesting factoid. Thanks.

  71. 71
    Mandalay says:

    @Omnes Omnibus:

    Not being snobbish, but when is the last time a person without a degree been a major party candidate

    Paul Keating became Prime Minister of Australia despite leaving school at 15. John Major became Prime Minister of Britain despite leaving school at 16.

    I would gouge my eyes out with a rusty fork before I’d vote for Walker, but I certainly don’t hold it against him that he doesn’t have a degree.

  72. 72
    Mandalay says:

    @Omnes Omnibus:

    Not being snobbish, but when is the last time a person without a degree been a major party candidate

    Paul Keating became Prime Minister of Australia despite leaving school at 15. John Major became Prime Minister of Britain despite leaving school at 16.

    I would gouge my eyes out with a rusty fork before I’d vote for Walker, but I certainly don’t hold it against him that he doesn’t have a degree.

  73. 73
    Paul in KY says:

    @barry: Glad you have caught on ;-)

  74. 74
    jibeaux says:

    @Alex S.: Bush 2036: That Was A Really Long Time Ago, We Have Brown Ones Now!

  75. 75

    @Cluttered Mind: For the win!

    It’s even correct bumper-sticker length.

  76. 76
    xenos says:

    @eric:

    I have seen it argued that Hillary puts a red state (WV) or two in play.

    Who can Hillary lose NC or PA or FL, or even VA to?

    I have not lived in the US for a few years, so I may not be up on things, but which Obama 2012 state could you expect her to lose in, even with the idiots form her 2008 campaign in charge?

  77. 77
    Paul in KY says:

    @yam: I wouldn’t vote for Jeb if W committed seppuku to atone for his guilt (which he should do anyway).

    I know you were saying ‘no way’ as there is no way Batshit McChimpy would ever apologize.

  78. 78
    Cluttered Mind says:

    @jibeaux: Bush 2036: Because this generation is healthy and unscarred by war.

  79. 79
    Paul in KY says:

    @Cervantes: Liked the ‘sunshine on my shoulders’ line!

  80. 80
    jibeaux says:

    @xenos: I don’t think he’s saying that, although in ’12 NC was not an Obama state anymore. /sad trombone

  81. 81
    jl says:

    I’ve read Mitt Romney is polling well. No love for Mitt?

  82. 82
    Paul in KY says:

    @Roger Moore: I was thinking that too!

  83. 83
    Mnemosyne says:

    @Cluttered Mind:

    Bush 2016: Because bad things always happen in threes.

    I think this one’s the winner.

  84. 84
    Mandalay says:

    Mark Halperin on Jan 16:

    If @JebBush suddenly got massive fire in the belly 2 B prez & spent ’14 making smart moves, he would be WAY ahead in the invisible primary

    Mark Halperin four days earlier on Jan 12:

    Best ’16 political news for @GovChristie: no one else in the field is strong/rising or had a great ’13. He remains as strong as anyone else

    Utterly shameless.

  85. 85
    Mandalay says:

    Mark Halperin on Jan 16:

    If @JebBush suddenly got massive fire in the belly 2 B prez & spent ’14 making smart moves, he would be WAY ahead in the invisible primary

    Mark Halperin four days earlier on Jan 12:

    Best ’16 political news for @GovChristie: no one else in the field is strong/rising or had a great ’13. He remains as strong as anyone else

    Utterly shameless.

  86. 86
    Omnes Omnibus says:

    @Mandalay: Given the context of the comment, one would have thought that “in the US” was understood. Also, I am not holding it against him; I am saying that it is a factor in my reasoning that he is unlikely to be the GOP candidate.

  87. 87

    This will be interesting for my wingnut sister. She worked for the State of FLA and got outsourced by Jeb a few months before retirement. The last time we talked politics she called the Bushes leftists.

  88. 88
    Paul in KY says:

    @shortstop: Maybe you should tell him you’ve converted to Republicanism & that may make him start voting Democratic.

    It’s worth a shot…

  89. 89
    Roger Moore says:

    @Omnes Omnibus:

    He is a college drop out; Not being snobbish, but when is the last time a person without a degree been a major party candidate (Truamn?)?

    AFAIK, it was Truman.

  90. 90
    Cervantes says:

    @Paul in KY:

    crazier than Kitty Dukakis (RIP) was.

    Be nice. She struggled with alcoholism and depression.

    Plus she’s still very much alive. We see her and Mike socially every so often.

    Did you know they are great with trick-or-treaters, whose parents, even, frequently have no idea who they are?

  91. 91
    jibeaux says:

    All right, I’ll accept that I’ve been beaten AFTER I submit:

    Bush 2016: These Are Not The Droids You’re Looking For

    Right?

  92. 92
    Omnes Omnibus says:

    @jibeaux: No, that’s a Romney tagline.

  93. 93
    Anoniminous says:

    Obama had a 12 point advantage with women over Romney. If Hilary runs you can add another 3 percent (or so) plus a larger turn-out of women. Further, white voters will comprise around 70% of the electorate in 2016 and they are politically concentrated in states the GOP candidate will probably win anyway, e.g., Mississippi. Jeb may put Florida in play. Say he does. Say he wins it. He’s still has to win sweep Ohio, Virginia, and North Carolina and the chances of doing that are close to zip/nada.

    Thus, Jeb does not chip away at the Democratic Party’s lead among women nor does he expand the battle field. Structurally he’s a NothingBurger.

  94. 94
    Mnemosyne says:

    @Omnes Omnibus:

    Heck, when was the last time we elected a president who didn’t graduate from one of the Ivies? Nixon?

  95. 95
    KG says:

    There’s one thing I do agree with the teahadists about: it’s fucking amazing how much establishment media favors the wise Burkean daddy Republicans (Romney, McCain, Christie, Jeb) over the wild-eyed tea party bucks (Rand Paul, all the nuts who ran against Romney in 2012).

    This is no surprise. The establishment media is all about the horse race, which is all about the ratings, nobody wants to watch a blow out. They need the aura of competitiveness and they know that the wild-eyed crazies aren’t going to win and aren’t going to make it competitive. Believe me, if there was a liberal version of what is going on with the GOP/TP today, they’d treat it the same. The media lives for a 2000-too-close-to-call-anything-can-happen fiasco. It’s all about ratings, which is all about money (better ratings mean better ad revenues). They don’t want a ’64, ’72, ’84 style shellacking, that’s bad for business. It’s the same reason they would love a reasonable third party/independent challenger (pre-crazy Perot in ’92), because that’ll but the race in more flux, which again means better ratings.

  96. 96
    Roger Moore says:

    If @JebBush suddenly got massive fire in the belly 2 B prez & spent ’14 making smart moves, he would be WAY ahead in the invisible primary

    And if my aunt had balls, she’d be my uncle.

  97. 97
    JPL says:

    According to TPM Huckabee is leading the pack. Will they forgive him for mandating that Insurance coverage carry contraception?

  98. 98
    DougJ says:

    @Mandalay:

    Good find.

  99. 99
    Paul in KY says:

    @Cluttered Mind: Bush 2016: ‘We Think You’re That Stupid’

  100. 100
    Suffern ACE says:

    @Omnes Omnibus: I have been beating this drum for a while now. I offer it as: which Obama 2012 states will this candidate put into play in the general? If it isn’t enough to give the R 270 EC votes, the rest doesn’t matter.

    Florida for one and then if the Dems don’t take back legislatures or governor’s manisions in Ohio, Michigan and PA, split the electoral vote by congressional district.

    What, you didn’t think that EC “reform” plan had gone away, did you?

  101. 101
    Cluttered Mind says:

    @Omnes Omnibus: No, the Romney tagline is: You will be assimilated, resistance is futile.

  102. 102
    Omnes Omnibus says:

    @Mnemosyne: Reagan.

  103. 103
    jibeaux says:

    @Omnes Omnibus:
    Bush 2016: We Are Not The Droids Who Were Just Here

  104. 104
    shortstop says:

    @Omnes Omnibus: Is he really a college dropout? I didn’t know that.*

    And I agree with and have already stipulated every other Walker weak point you mention above in our other discussions on this topic. My short version is that as much baggage as he has, he has less than the other guys and is going to be more palatable to the ‘stablishment than the ‘bagger wackaloons.

    So if Bush doesn’t come in, and it’s not Walker, who will it be? Who can make it all the way through the primaries?

    *Another thing I somehow didn’t know until this week is that Wisconsin wingnuts are threatening to enforce the Uniform Marriage Evasion Act if your state’s ghey people don’t stop going to Iowa, Minnesota and (soon) Illinois to get hitched. For fuck’s sake!

  105. 105
    Mike E says:

    @Mandalay: “Invisible primary”, is that for, like, the choir invisible to vote in with an invisible hand?

  106. 106
    xenos says:

    @Hawes:

    Bush vs Clinton?

    I fucking hate re-runs…

    I rather like the way that movie turned out. I would not mind watching it again.

  107. 107
    Suffern ACE says:

    @Mnemosyne: Carter and Reagan didn’t go to the Ivies. But it has been 25+ years of Ivy league rule. During which time, we’ve kind of gone crappy.

  108. 108
    Paul in KY says:

    @Cervantes: I was sure she had passed. I voted for him & her. My bad on thinking she was dead. Glad she is still alive.

  109. 109
    Roger Moore says:

    @Omnes Omnibus:

    No, that’s a Romney tagline.

    Sorry, but Romney’s tag line (or is that Tagg line) is “Romney 2016: This is the Droid you’re looking for.”

  110. 110
    Ron Thompson says:

    This is the result of their descent into insanity. 50 years ago, they had the Governors of Michigan and Pennsylvania, and people thought Romney and Scranton would be strong presidential candidates. Now they have Snyder and Corbett, and they’re both obvious non-entities.

    It’s partly bad luck.It only takes one super-candidate to win. But the fact that you really have to be kind of a jerk to get the support of Republican primary voters has moulded the party and dried up the pool of plausible candidates.

    If Jeb runs, his bumper stickers, buttons, backdrops, etc. will all be “Jeb”, with no mention of “Bush”

  111. 111
    Omnes Omnibus says:

    @shortstop:

    So if Bush doesn’t come in, and it’s not Walker, who will it be? Who can make it all the way through the primaries?

    I would bet on Santorum. I think ’14 will got fairly well for our side and the GOP will let its freak flag fly in’16.

    *Another thing I somehow didn’t know until this week is that Wisconsin wingnuts are threatening to enforce the Uniform Marriage Evasion Act if your state’s ghey people don’t stop going to Iowa, Minnesota and (soon) Illinois to get hitched. For fuck’s sake!

    Yeah, I am so proud. But this is the kind of thing that help the Ds in ’14. The GOP really is that crazy.

  112. 112
    Paul in KY says:

    @Mnemosyne: Pres Carter graduated from Naval Academy (I think).

  113. 113
    Paul in KY says:

    @Mnemosyne: Also Reagan from Whittier.

  114. 114
    Svensker says:

    @Bob In Portland:

    This will be interesting for my wingnut sister. She worked for the State of FLA and got outsourced by Jeb a few months before retirement. The last time we talked politics she called the Bushes leftists.

    Won’t make a dang bitta difference if I go by my wingnuts. They’ll call him a commie loving baby killer…until he’s the Repub candidate. Then he’ll be the Only Thing That Can Save ‘Murka From the Goddless Liberals!TM When he loses (please, God) or was a terrible president who ballooned the budget, it will be because he wasn’t crazy enough and not a Real Conservative.

    They never learn.

  115. 115
    KG says:

    @xenos: looking at the 2012 map, in order to eek out a victory, the GOP has to hold every state that it won and then pick up Florida, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and then a smaller state, say New Mexico, Colorado, or Nevada (New Mexico would put them at 273).

    Having a more, ahem, “traditional” candidate on the Democratic ticket will probably open up a few states. Hillary may put Arkansas, Tennessee, Missouri, and maybe even Louisiana in play, given the Clinton connection to the region.

  116. 116
    Cervantes says:

    @Napoleon: You’re welcome.

    It was a TV ad. Sort of a “town hall” thing populated with kids, maybe ten or eleven years old, filmed at a school. They asked Bobby questions, mostly about federal education policy, believe it or not, and he answered.

    (If you think about it, you’ll see why federal education policy was on those kids’ minds in 1968. We know what happened to one of them. I wonder what happened to the others.)

  117. 117
    Cervantes says:

    @Paul in KY: Reagan went to Eureka. Nixon went to Whittier.

    Not that it helped.

  118. 118
    jibeaux says:

    What I like about this game is that it’s hilarious no matter who they name. Huckabee’s leading — Gee whillikers, that’s just peachy! Jeb’s #1 with a bullet — Oh yeah! Christie’s back in the saddle — Get back on that horse, buddy! Romney’s still interested — don’t take no for an answer, man!

  119. 119
    Gene108 says:

    Do the folks backing Jeb understand the reason GWB had problems is because his policies were too liberal? And the reason McCain and Romney lost is they were not conservative enough?

    Above is what the base knows to be true. The MSM needs to understand this.

  120. 120
    Roger Moore says:

    @Anoniminous:

    Further, white voters will comprise around 70% of the electorate in 2016 and they are politically concentrated in states the GOP candidate will probably win anyway, e.g., Mississippi.

    Not to argue the basic point, but Mississippi is not especially white: as of the 2010 Census, it was 59.1% white and 37% African American. The really white areas are Appalachia, the Great Plains, and the Mountain West. The coastal South has a lot of African Americans, which is why Virginia is trending blue, North Carolina is getting purplish, and even Georgia is looking less solidly red.

  121. 121
    SiubhanDuinne says:

    @Paul in KY:

    Kitty Dukakis (RIP)

    Pretty sure she’s still alive.

  122. 122
    Cervantes says:

    @Roger Moore: Truman. You and Omnes are correct.

  123. 123
    KG says:

    @Paul in KY: Reagan went to Eureka College, Nixon went to Whittier.

  124. 124
    shortstop says:

    @KG: Arkansas and Missouri have shifted dramatically to the right; I do not think they’re coming back to us. Tennessee and Louisiana will stay firmly red. The only state I see her putting back in play for us is West Virginia, and I’m not even sure about that. Thoughts from Cole or someone who knows it better?

    @Omnes Omnibus: I would bet Santorum doesn’t make it past Super Tuesday. It will be interesting to watch all this.

  125. 125
    Johannes says:

    @Cluttered Mind: No, Mr. Bush, I expect you to lose!

  126. 126
    SiubhanDuinne says:

    @Paul in KY:

    crazier than Kitty Dukakis

    Also, this is gratuitously cruel. Mrs. Dukakis suffers from depression and alcoholism, as do millions of people. Mental illness =|= crazy.

  127. 127
    Mandalay says:

    @Omnes Omnibus:

    it is a factor in my reasoning that he is unlikely to be the GOP candidate

    He has become state governor without a degree. To have done that is an achievement in itself. I think he could even use it as a selling point in his campaign( “hard work”, “bootstraps”, “American Dream”, etc…)

    I strongly doubt that Walker will ever become president, but his lack of a college degree won’t be a factor. A degree is often only an entry barrier, but having passed that barrier (which he has) it becomes irrelevant. And I don’t think most Americans will give a flying shit, which is exactly as it should be.

  128. 128
    Roger Moore says:

    @Mnemosyne:

    Heck, when was the last time we elected a president who didn’t graduate from one of the Ivies?

    Clinton; Georgetown is prestigious but not an Ivy. If you count Clinton’s law degree, it would be Reagan, who went to Eureka College. There was actually a good run from Johnson through Reagan without an Ivy among them.

  129. 129
    shortstop says:

    @Mandalay:

    I strongly doubt that Walker will ever become president

    In that you have unanimous agreement here. What we’re actually talking about, however, is whether he can get the Republican nomination without a degree. I believe that in today’s climate, he can. Omnes disagrees.

  130. 130
    KG says:

    @shortstop: Democrats of the non-blah persuasion have won in Missouri, Arkansas, and Louisiana in the last few cycles. I hate jumping on race as the issue, but I think it has something to do with it.

  131. 131
    Cervantes says:

    @Mnemosyne:

    Heck, when was the last time we elected a president who didn’t graduate from one of the Ivies? Nixon?

    No. If by “Ivies” you mean college, then it was Clinton, who was graduated by Georgetown. Before him, Reagan, who went to Eureka. Before that it was Carter (Annapolis). And before that you could count Ford (Michigan), though we never elected him President.

    Only then do you get to Nixon (Whittier).

  132. 132
    Paul in KY says:

    @Cervantes: Good catch, had my evil Republican President’s colleges switched. Wonder if either would have been any different if they had gone to each other’s college?

    Think amongst yourselves…

  133. 133
    Jamey says:

    @Napoleon: Judging from how he writes, I’d wager that his dad was a big pusher of LSD back in the day, too…

  134. 134
    Paul in KY says:

    @SiubhanDuinne: Cervantes corrected me above. She is very much alive & I regret my post there.

  135. 135
    Patrick says:

    @Mandalay:

    Don’t forget that Halperin amazingly thought that McCain’s confession that he didn’t know how many houses he owned was good news for John Mccain. It is utterly amazing that MSNBC actually pays money for his “wisdom”.

  136. 136
    cmorenc says:

    @Violet:

    I really don’t think Jeb would do nearly as well as they think he would. Yes, let’s return to the Bush years. Which one? The first one who “wouldn’t finish the war” and lost after one term or the one who got us into two wars he left unfinished and tanked the economy? Both are winners!

    One problem (among many) the GOP would have in a Hillary Clinton v. Jeb Bush matchup is that which era would a majority of voters prefer a partial re-run of: the Clinton years, or Bush 1/Bush 2? I doubt many outside the 27-percenters are pining whatsoever for a return to the “Bush” years, not that they want a literal re-run of the Clinton years either. But the negative shadow of the Bush years hangs a lot deeper and heavier over Jeb Bush’s efforts to recast himself in his own future-oriented image than it does Hillary Clinton. The only upside I can see for the GOP is perhaps a better chance of picking off Florida, but OTOH Hillary makes significant inroads in places that were safely GOP when Obama was running. And there’s the desire of lots of women for the first women president.

  137. 137
    Jamey says:

    @Mnemosyne: Reagan, Carter, Ford

  138. 138
    Paul in KY says:

    @SiubhanDuinne: Could have used more politically correct (and true) terminology. No excuse.

  139. 139
    Turgidson says:

    @Omnes Omnibus:

    For all the mileage the braindead/teabagger faction of the GOP has gotten out of hating on librul elite pointyhead ivory tower Ivy League propaganda mills, they do tend to frequently nominate candidates who made stops at such institutions. I have a theory that on some level, the GOP base trusts a candidate who went into the belly of the librul beast and came out speaking fluent wingnut even more than they’d trust an actual moran like them.

  140. 140
    shortstop says:

    @KG: Race surely does have a lot to do with it, not least in West Virginia. But while Democrats can win local and state office in these states, none of them have gone for a Democratic presidential candidate since Clinton, right? And IIRC, Arkansas has had a steeper rightward descent than any other state over the past few years. (I don’t mean that it’s redder than other states, but that it’s shifted more dramatically rightward than any other.)

    @Cervantes: You, Mnemosyne and Mandalay have shifted to elected presidents, but the original question was whether one could be a major-party presidential candidate. I think that’s not only a different animal; there’s also a difference in whether that’s possible for Republicans vs. Democrats at this particular point in time.

  141. 141
    Omnes Omnibus says:

    @Turgidson: That makes Cruz a contender for the GOP nom.

    ETA: If he wins the nomination, it will also support my theory that they are going to go with the crazy in ’16.

  142. 142
    Napoleon says:

    @Suffern ACE:

    Florida for one and then if the Dems don’t take back legislatures or governor’s manisions in Ohio, Michigan and PA, split the electoral vote by congressional district.

    I think you are likely correct. The Republican’s have no intention of the next election going to the person who gets the most votes. You have seen the last real election for President that you are going to see in a while occur in November of 2012.

  143. 143
    Omnes Omnibus says:

    @Napoleon:

    You have seen the last real election for President that you are going to see in a while occur in November of 2012.

    Bullshit.

  144. 144
    pseudonymous in nc says:

    It’s a test of two rules: “the GOP always nominates the runner-up from last time”, and “the GOP always nominates the establishment figure”. The runner-up from last time is Rick Santorum, who hasn’t held elective office for over seven years, and he’s wingnut-welfare establishment, not GOP daddy establishment.

    I think eric makes a good point: the GOP moneybags now think it’s a better use of their money to buy off state elections, gerrymander the House, and take a punt on the Senate, especially in midterms. It’s an attempt to nullify the presidency and govern by lurching from engineered crisis to engineered crisis.

  145. 145
    catclub says:

    @eric: First you said ideology matters, and then you said all that matters is money. Those are diametrically opposite statements. If only money mattered, they would know ( and act on the fact that) the economy does better under Democrats. If only money mattered, GM would be in favor of a national healthcare system to make them competitive with other developed nations that have it.

    I think your first statement was the more accurate.

  146. 146
    Betty Cracker says:

    @cmorenc: I’m not all that great at reading the local mood: I didn’t think Florida was dumb enough to elect Rick Scott, and I thought it was too dumb to re-elect Obama — I was wrong by a whisker on both counts.

    That said, it would not surprise me a bit if FL went for Hillary over Jeb. He was a fairly popular governor, but that was before the shit really hit the fan with the economy and his brother disgraced the family name for ten thousand generations. Plus, there are a lot of retired women down here who would crawl over broken glass to vote for Hillary.

  147. 147

    she wrote eight anti-Perry pieces in one day

    And showered after finishing each one of them. She later told a friend, “It was like running a marathon, only it was less stressful on the legs.”

  148. 148
    catclub says:

    @Omnes Omnibus: Yeah, that statement by the little Corsican sounds a lot like the people ( on either side) who fear that the sitting president ( either Obama or Bush) would cancel elections and declare himself president for life.

  149. 149
    Cervantes says:

    @shortstop:

    You, Mnemosyne and Mandalay have shifted to elected presidents, but the original question was whether one could be a major-party presidential candidate.

    Shifted, shmifted. I answered the questions I could answer, that’s all.

    Speculating on who the Republicans can bring themselves to nominate next year is interesting enough — please proceed — but on this subject I, personally, have nothing to add at this time, see?

  150. 150
    shortstop says:

    @Betty Cracker:

    I’m not all that great at reading the local mood: I didn’t think Florida was dumb enough to elect Rick Scott, and I thought it was too dumb to re-elect Obama — I was wrong by a whisker on both counts.

    Doesn’t turnout explain both results, though? Fearful and/or crotchety old white people vote very reliably in off-year and midterm elections.

  151. 151
    mai naem mobile says:

    Any white democratic candidate will pick up at least one to two states over Obama ’12 and maybe possibly lose Fl to Jebbie.Fl wouldn’t matter anyway. If Crist wins Fl the Dems will win Fl. Ca,NY,Fl.and Ill going Dem is a high jump for the GOP to jump over.

  152. 152
    Anoniminous says:

    @Roger Moore:

    Mississippi had a 59% voter turnout in 2012 with 2,152,832 voting for Romney and 1,285,584 for Obama. I assume the Obama vote was primarily from the 37% AA population. I have no proof of that, seems reasonable. For a Democrat to win Mississippi there has to be a voter swing of (roughly) 500,000 votes or (roughly) 20% of the electorate. That’s as close to impossible as it’s possible to get which is why I wrote “politically concentrated.”

    (I’m just talking here, not arguing. :-)

    Appalachia is an interesting area. The last time they went Democrat was for Bill Clinton. I suspect (but have no proof) Hilary would pick up votes from her gender and last name, doing better than Gore, Kerry, and Obama. Without data anything I can say is speculation. Undercutting this is the fact Appalachia is economically dependent on coal and that is a dying industry unless and until Federal funds are used to find some way to diversify the area away from extraction, towards some form of manufacturing such as using the coal to make plastics or the coal+trees to make bio-diesel.

    How well would this play on the campaign trail? No idea.

  153. 153
    eric says:

    @catclub: Ideology matters to people such that the No Labels people are deluding themselves to get ideology out of politics. and what they really mean is keep your ideology away from OUR money. dont let the dems tax it and dont let dems that would tax it get elected.

  154. 154
    Captain C says:

    @Hill Dweller:

    What will the wingnuts do if their hero Putin looks incompetent?

    Blame it on Obama, the gays, and the Mexicans, in that order. A few of the older ones may blame the Commies; after it all, it is Russia.

  155. 155
    Turgidson says:

    @Omnes Omnibus:

    I think he has a slim chance at the nom, but he went too far the other way, not just speaking fluent wingnut, but saying all their favorite batshit crazy stuff like a true believer, out of the gate when he became a senator and scared or insulted the establishment moneybags set, perhaps irredeemably. If he runs and does well early – solid Iowa win, strong 2nd or 3rd in NH, then a big SC win, it will be interesting to see whether the grown-ups (relatively speaking) can derail him before it’s too late.

    As loony as he’s been thus far, I also think he might be slick enough to soothe the establishment’s fears behind the scenes, or start making more sense in 2015 so that they can convince themselves he’d mostly do their bidding as president.

    But he won’t be president. So no worries.

  156. 156
    SRW1 says:

    Et tu, Marcello!

  157. 157
    Just Some Fuckhead says:

    Because of the power of evangelicals in the Republican party, Huckabee should get the nomination if he decides to run. Having said that, I’m not sure Romney isn’t going to run again and I think his “incumbency” would be a major asset.

    Jindal could get some traction as Republicans’ Own ‘Bama.

    Jeb Bush isn’t going to run.

  158. 158
    catclub says:

    @KG: Yep. Landrieu could win again this year. It will be close in my estimation.

  159. 159
    different-church-lady says:

    The right keeps looking for their next Great White Hope, and the left keeps looking for a fantasy Lenin-who-can-win-the-general.

  160. 160
    catclub says:

    @Roger Moore: “The really white areas are Appalachia, the Great Plains, and the Mountain West.”

    Also Vermont, NH, Maine. Technically, all on the Appalachian Trail, but somehow different from
    WV, Kentucky, Tennessee, Ark. ( which is not on the trail).

  161. 161
    Cluttered Mind says:

    @catclub: I thought the Appalachian Trail was where you went to meet Argentinians.

  162. 162
    Anoniminous says:

    @Just Some Fuckhead:

    My opinion is Huckabee sat out 2012 because he didn’t want to run against Obama and lose. If he wants to be president he simply has to run in 2016. Otherwise he is looking at 2020, should Hilary win or 2024 if the Republican candidate wins and that’s way beyond his sell-by date.

  163. 163
    sparrow says:

    @Anoniminous: Why do you say Hillary will bring the woman vote? Are there numbers out there that show it? Because I’m skeptical. For one thing, she’s a war-monger, and women don’t usually go for war-mongers. Secondly, plenty of wingnuts are women, and aren’t going to jump fence for Hillary, especially. (Liz Warren, maybe, but not Hillary). I say this as a former teenage wingnut during the Clinton years. I remember the hate for Hillary very vividly.

  164. 164
    Just Some Fuckhead says:

    @different-church-lady:

    and the left keeps looking for a fantasy Lenin-who-can-win-the-general.

    You are a fucking retard.

  165. 165
    Chris says:

    @Frankensteinbeck:

    It’s not amazing. The media (specifically, national level journalists as a group) are rich Republicans. They’re the people who think America is a ‘center-right nation’, as I was informed by CNN when Obama’s win on election night was announced. They couldn’t believe it. They’re lazy, arrogant, and mean-spirited people like Brokaw who think the poor should suffer because that will build character. The Tea Party is hurting their brand, and they’re desperately groping for a Reagan figure who can tell the whole country that the poor deserve to suffer and be wildly popular for it.

    I don’t think it’s that the teabaggers hurt their brand so much as it is that the teabaggers just aren’t like them (background, ideology, social status) – and they want somebody who is.

    What the MSM and elites in general want most in a president is simply that it be one of the people they rub shoulders with in Georgetown homes, Manhattan penthouses, the nearby country clubs and [insert other cliches here].

    People that they know as part of their social circle and can be reasonably sure hold all the attitudes, prejudices and priorities that go with it.

    People who understand what really matters to the nation (their pocketbooks) and what doesn’t (the things that matter to the little people, whichever side of the aisle they’re on).

    People who aren’t scary, unshaven, spittling Bible verses or waving Confederate flags, but also aren’t going to talk their ear off about the “plight” of the “poor,” the “middle class,” the “working Americans” and all these other yokels who, God bless ’em, just don’t understand how lucky they are to have elites that are so smart, and of such high moral character, ensuring that the world turns properly.

    In other words, people like John McCain, Mitt Romney, or (because they really are fair and balanced) Joe Lieberman. Not backwoods hicks like Mike Huckabee, Rick Santorum or Ted Cruz, but also not oboxious do-gooders like Barack Obama, Nancy Pelosi or Hillary Clinton.

  166. 166
    Anoniminous says:

    @sparrow:

    Straight forward old fashioned politics. People vote in greater numbers for a Person Like Me and Hilary, should she get the nomination, would be the first time a woman has a serious shot at the Presidency. She would also lose some obtainable Democratic male votes because girl-cooties.

  167. 167
    catclub says:

    @Chris: Ted Cruz’s wife is an investment banker, yes?
    I think he would fit in fine with the elites. And also wrap up much of the wingnut vote. Pretty dangerous.

  168. 168
    Chris says:

    @Just Some Fuckhead:
    @Anoniminous:

    IIRC, Huckabee is unpopular with both Republican elites (who suspect him of populist tendencies because he’s occasionally used rhetoric like “Wall Street vs Main Street”) and the Republican base (many of whom view him as soft on immigration because he’s said a few non-eliminationist things about Hispanics, and soft on crime because of the couple convicted murderers he pardoned – one of whom went on to kill again, I do believe).

    He could conceivably hobble by if he had just one of those two (the elites or the base) behind him, but without either of them, he’ll never make it through the primary.

  169. 169
    catclub says:

    @Anoniminous: My opinion is that $1M/yr from Fox takes a lot of the fire out of the belly, plus his collection of closets and skeletons. He won’t run again.

  170. 170
    Omnes Omnibus says:

    @Chris: George H.W. Bush is really that group’s Ur-candidate.

  171. 171
    pseudonymous in nc says:

    @Anoniminous:

    Appalachia is an interesting area. The last time they went Democrat was for Bill Clinton. I suspect (but have no proof) Hilary would pick up votes from her gender and last name

    The 2008 primary map shows Hillary pretty much sweeping Appalachia, and it was those primaries where her campaign strategy got a bit icky in its appeal to white voters when the delegate numbers were already against her. That doesn’t translate into general election votes, of course.

    For Dems, this should all be seen as a big distraction. The mid-terms matter, at the state level, and for the shape of Congress for the following two years.

  172. 172
    Anoniminous says:

    @Anoniminous:

    Since I can’t edit my comment:

    The number of voters who are still strongly politically motivated, for whatever reason, by the Bill Clinton presidency are probably unobtainable anyway. Hilary would, I submit, be a strong motivator for single, unmarried, women to turn out in droves. This demographic is ~65% Democrats and a very hard to actually get to the voting booth. I’m thinking we would also see an increase in previously non-voting and loosely attached women across the age demographic.

  173. 173
    Cervantes says:

    @Chris:

    Not backwoods hicks like Mike Huckabee, Rick Santorum or Ted Cruz

    How does “backwoods hicks” describe these three?

  174. 174
    Omnes Omnibus says:

    @Cervantes: I am guessing guilt by association with their supporters.

  175. 175
    Anoniminous says:

    @Chris: @catclub:

    Unless something really weird happens in 2014, I agree with both of you. My point was narrow: IF he wants it he HAS to run in 2016 or his national political career is over and we can stop talking about him.

    (Praise Jeebus)

  176. 176
    Betty Cracker says:

    @shortstop: I think it does explain both, but still, Scott was such an obvious crook! I know several fellow liberals who sat 2010 out because they were peeved that Obama hadn’t delivered their pony yet, allowing Scott to squeak by with less than 50% of the vote. It didn’t help that the Dem candidate was a Bank of America exec either. Still, you gotta vote! Or you get Teaturd Bat Boy! I never let them forget it, either.

  177. 177
    shortstop says:

    @Betty Cracker: Ugh. Well, at least his approval ratings demonstrate mass buyers’ remorse, so you can club your friends over the head with that.

  178. 178
    Paul in KY says:

    @sparrow: She is a woman. That probably doesn’t hurt with the non-wingnut distaff side.

  179. 179
    Just Some Fuckhead says:

    @Betty Cracker: And there’s plenty of evidence that a whole lot of black folks and utes didn’t bother to vote in 2010 because Obama wasn’t on the ticket. I see your obottery and raise you a firebag.

  180. 180
    Paul in KY says:

    @catclub: Thank God though that he is Ted Cruz, super wacko John-Birch-was-a-Commie type.

  181. 181
    Death Panel Truck says:

    In a nation of 300 million + people, Hillary Clinton and Jeb Bush are the best we can do? God, that’s depressing.

  182. 182
    Gene108 says:

    @Mnemosyne:

    Carter went to Annapolis and Ford (though not elected) went to U of Mich

  183. 183
    Anoniminous says:

    @pseudonymous in nc:

    I agree we need to get focused on the 2014 mid-terms. Which makes 2 of us. :-)

    At the moment, the 2014 mid-terms are 100% insider baseball broken down by county, CD, and state internal politics with nothing for a nationally oriented blog to talk about. I mean, I care who will get the Democratic nomination for my area’s NM Public Regulatory Agency seat, the State Auditor, and etc. but I really kind of doubt anyone else is. The Governor nomination is more appropriate for BJ but I’m not that well connected within the NM party so I have nothing to contribute.

  184. 184
    Chris says:

    @catclub:

    Definitely the worst case scenario, yeah, is if you can wrap up both. George W. Bush was the perfect candidate – as the scion of a big East Coast dynasty he was accepted in those circles and had all the help that his family connections could bring him, but he also spoke fluent Wingnutese in a way that McCain and Romney weren’t able to.

    But I’m not convinced Cruz can pull the same thing off – when the 2016 gossip/speculation about Christie v. Cruz was going around, most of the elites seemed to be backing Christie. Even with this scandal, they seem to be really, really sad at the idea that they might have to get off the Christie train. Cruz is the teabagger candidate – I don’t see that the elites are sold on him.

    @Cervantes:

    It doesn’t, but IMO it does describe the way the New York and Washington elites think about them. They’re unserious teabaggers, or at least playing along with them way too much to the point that they’ve become the mask. They put the emphasis on all the wrong things, like abortion and gay marriage and contraception rather than the Confidence Fairy, and worse, they take these things so far that it becomes embarrassing and electorally troublesome for the party. (Granted, that describes Huckabee and Santorum better, I mighta been wrong to include Ted Cruz).

    I don’t think “white trash” accurately describes Bill Clinton either, certainly not after rising through law school, prestigious East Coast universities, and the like. But it’s often pointed out that this is exactly how Official Washington saw him, no matter how long the list of credentials.

  185. 185
    sparrow says:

    @Paul in KY: Well, as a woman, let me just say I’m not so sure I’d bet on gender loyalty. It isn’t a factor for me whatsoever. I want the best person to win. I don’t have a prejudice against a woman, but neither does she get any extra points either. I felt the same about Obama and race. I wouldn’t be surprised If Hillary lost the white woman vote, frankly.

  186. 186
    Bex says:

    @Paul in KY: Nixon from Whittier; Reagan from Eureka.

  187. 187
    Ash Can says:

    Given the, uh, characteristics of the GOP base, I would think that the lack of a college degree would be an asset rather than a liability in the primaries. (In the general, well, that’s a different story.) The reason I agree that Walker doesn’t have a shot is, just as Omnes says, his lack of charisma. GOP primary candidates — let alone the actual nominees — need to have at least a minimal flair for the dramatic and be able to talk a good game. Walker, on the other hand, is Elmer Fudd. (And this is even if the investigations into political improprieties from his Milwaukee days don’t get any closer to him than they have.)

  188. 188
    Anoniminous says:

    @Death Panel Truck:

    Welcome to national political discussions fueled by national media. Nobody in 2005/2006 was talking about some dude from Illinois as a serious candidate.

  189. 189
    Chris says:

    @Anoniminous:

    Ah, yes. I do see.

    I mean, I tend to think of his career as pretty much over already, but I could see how that might be his last chance.

  190. 190
    Another Holocene Human says:

    @Anoniminous: JEB! will not win Florida.

    Or let me put it like this–the only way he or any R could win Florida’s EC’s would be for the Democratic Party to implode 1968 style.

    The only reason the GOP won the last statewide off year election is that Florida’s statewide Democratic Party couldn’t find its ass with both hands. It put up a person whose campaigning skills could only be considered competent by comparison to a Martha Coakley and whose name was unknown to much of the state. Progressive and labor groups were disorganized and voters stayed home. Then everyone woke up to the crook winning the election in a squeaker.

    Lightning is not going to strike twice. The winning coalition that made JEB! governor has all but broken up … the state GOP is coming apart … and that’s statewide offyears. During Presidential elections the state’s poor and minority voters have shown they will crawl over broken glass to vote, in spite of or perhaps because of a decade of dirty tricks starting with JEB!’s people.

    GOP has to win without Florida. I hear the Midwest is lovely this time of year….

  191. 191
    shortstop says:

    @sparrow: Wingnut women would jump the fence for Warren, who is considerably more progressive than Clinton?

    I don’t see it.

  192. 192
    shortstop says:

    @Ash Can: But how does that explain the charismaless Romney’s candidacy? Agree that Walker’s lack of “it” would be a serious liability in the general, but I don’t see it ruling him out of the nomination.

  193. 193
    pdq says:

    @Omnes Omnibus:

    Well, maybe Florida?

  194. 194
    BruinKid says:

    @Paul in KY: Whew. I was about to get pretty upset with you there, as Kitty is here with her husband at UCLA this quarter, as he teaches public policy every winter here.

  195. 195
    shortstop says:

    @shortstop: BTW, to be clearer, I don’t see them jumping for Clinton, either.

  196. 196
    Another Holocene Human says:

    @KG: But they’re Democrats who would NOT help us win down-ticket races in purple/blue states. Whereas a progressive (ish, I guess) base-exciter will.

    Hilary does excite some of the base, but it’s a part that’s aging out. I think despite all the “ha ha, she kills in early polls” crap, going with her would be a big mistake for the party.

    And progressives don’t and won’t like her. Why go there?

    Don’t think the African American community cares for her at all, thanks to 2008. Like you can put a D candidate over the top without them.

    Forget about the angry red states. They’re lost. OfA is organizing the f*ck out of Tejas, not Misery. These folks have been right over and over; I would take their opinion seriously. And Obama has made big pushes in AA cities in the South. I agree with others who say GA will be the next domino to fall. NC, goodness willing. This changes the whole equation.

    Fantasizing about replaying the mid-1990s electoral map with your hand down your pants (not you, KG, but older, nostalgic white Dems who are waving the Hilary Inevitability Banner) serves no-one.

  197. 197
    Another Holocene Human says:

    @Betty Cracker: You’re right, but the election is in 2016. Hilary won the primary back in 2008.

    Anyway, my own experience in my own family is that Hilary’s voters are DYING. While by 2016 more Obama voters younger siblings and children and grandchildren will be of age to vote. A fresh Democratic face with youth and Black voter appeal will win Florida with a safe margin despite county-level attempts at voter suppression. (Pretty good chance Crist will be gov and he is not one to pull dirty tricks voter suppression stuff… in fact, I’m counting on him putting back the felon civil rights restoration that Scott reversed. He’s the most anti-racist state-wide-recognizable pol in Florida that I know of.)

  198. 198
    Another Holocene Human says:

    @catclub: It’s always projection.

  199. 199
    Another Holocene Human says:

    @different-church-lady: In my experience the Left is too busy crafting artist’s statements to explain why they don’t vote and why that makes them better than you to actually learn about any candidates.

    They don’t even know shit about the people they do eventually flog. It’s kinda sad.

  200. 200
    Another Holocene Human says:

    @Anoniminous: Bullshit, she appeals to married people far more than the single woman/single mom category.

    That woman has no fucking idea what single women, esp heads of households go through (UNLIKE Obama, who did well with this demo) and doesn’t know how to talk to them. Wendy Davis, Suze Orman, Oprah … shit. Even Liz Warren would be better for this demographic simply because she is really big on these economic and consumer issues and shows that she understands and cares about the struggles that low income households go through. Economic issues is a lot of the reason this demo really sucks at voting.

  201. 201
    Another Holocene Human says:

    @Just Some Fuckhead: Okay, let’s see how 2014 turns out.

    Bet you’re wrong.

  202. 202
    Paul in KY says:

    @sparrow: Maybe you’re a wingnut ;-)

    (snark)

    i just said it wouldn’t/shouldn’t hurt her with woman who would entertain voting for Democratic nominee.

  203. 203
    Paul in KY says:

    @BruinKid: I have been chastised.

  204. 204
    Just Some Fuckhead says:

    @Another Holocene Human: You bet I’m wrong about something that is verifiable from 2008 based on another something that hasn’t happened yet?

    Did that make any sense when you typed it or was it typically kneejerk obottery?

  205. 205
    Shortstop says:

    @Another Holocene Human:

    A fresh Democratic face with youth and Black voter appeal will win Florida with a safe margin despite county-level attempts at voter suppression.

    Do you have someone in mind?

  206. 206
    AxelFoley says:

    Invisible primary? Is that anything like the shadow government Jeb proposed when President Obama came into office?

    The shit bitches like Halperin come up with to convince themselves their Republican daddies have a chance amazes me sometimes. The stench of Bush is still in the air, so Jeb has no chance to get into the White House.

  207. 207
    pseudonymous in nc says:

    @Anoniminous:

    nothing for a nationally oriented blog to talk about.

    Up to a point, but it’s a mistake to think that the midterms, while conducted on a state and district level, aren’t being fought — and particularly, funded — on a national level. And seeing where that money is being spent right now matters.

  208. 208
    Comrade Veidt says:

    What do you expect? They have Teabaggers you have Naderites.

  209. 209
    gorram says:

    @Roger Moore: “Droids are people, my friend!”

  210. 210
    Fry1laurie says:

    And you know it would be the Bush side, if Lil’ Jebbie runs, that would holler, “Dynasty!” at the Clinton’s, as if the last two Rethuglicans being named Bush didn’t qualify.

  211. 211
    PaulW says:

    Jeb Bush in 2016 would be a disaster for the GOP for three reasons:

    1) A lot of younger voters will be coming in who remember the hard times and disasters under Dubya when they were teens and pre-teens.
    2) A lot of voters will remember Dubya, period. First primary opponent who comes up with an ad of a photo of George W. morphing into Jeb’s face will win (yes, even among the Republican wingnut base).
    3) Jeb is not a Passive-Positive type who can sell a populist message like Dubya could. Jeb is gonna have to dance with who brung him – the deep pocket anti-regulation anti-tax establishment types – and he’s gonna be stuck promoting an agenda (more tax cuts! more deregulation!) that’s not popular with voters today.

  212. 212
    PaulW says:

    @Shortstop:

    Do you have someone in mind?

    Derrick Brooks. He’ll lock up the Tampa and Tallahassee voting markets for certain.

  213. 213
    PaulW says:

    @Just Some Fuckhead:

    I’d like to think voter turnout will be up in FLorida this year because enough people have seen Rick “Piss In This Cup To Get Your Food Stamps” Scott in action and will vote for whoever wins – Rich, Crist, a cheese sandwich – the Dem primary.

  214. 214
    PaulW says:

    @shortstop:

    one other thing about Sen. Warren: She’s NOT RUNNING for 2016. So get that fantasy out of your heads.

    I don’t think Deval Patrick is indicating a run for the Dem ticket either. I’m not sure who’s in the consideration other than Hillary or Biden.

  215. 215
    Cervantes says:

    @Anoniminous:

    At the moment, the 2014 mid-terms are 100% insider baseball broken down by county, CD, and state internal politics with nothing for a nationally oriented blog to talk about. I mean, I care who will get the Democratic nomination for my area’s NM Public Regulatory Agency seat, the State Auditor, and etc. but I really kind of doubt anyone else is.

    Personalities may be local but methods can transcend boundaries and therefore be of wider interest.

    You should read Kay on the subject.

  216. 216
    Anoniminous says:

    @Another Holocene Human:

    Good to hear.

  217. 217
    shortstop says:

    @PaulW:

    one other thing about Sen. Warren: She’s NOT RUNNING for 2016. So get that fantasy out of your heads.

    Uh, I never said I wanted Elizabeth Warren to run in 2016, nor that I thought she would even consider it. I responded in a specific fashion to a specific comment from someone else about crossover voting from wingnut women. So get a little reading comprehension into your head.

  218. 218
    gorram says:

    @Roger Moore: You’re right about the South not being actually all that White, but the Black population is only concentrated along the coast really in the “tobacco states” (Virginia and North Carolina), they’re spread out a bit even in North Carolina but especially in South Carolina, and pretty firmly in the inland “Black Belt” in Georgia and Alabama (although shout out to Atlanta as well). There’s the tail end of the “Black Belt” in Mississippi, but there and in Arkansas and Tennessee, the Black population is concentrated around the Mississippi River (often in trade towns like Memphis where many of them migrated to get out of abusive sharecropping situations). In Louisiana though, it’s true that the concentration of Black populations along the river does touch the coast, but the other parts of coastal Louisiana show that it’s not the coast itself that’s where you tend to find larger Black populations. So, yeah, there’s a lot of coastal Black populations, but there’s also a lot of inland ones too.

    (You can see this in Republican/Democratic voter share maps on the county level, like this one of the 2008 election.)

  219. 219
    gorram says:

    @KG: The radicalization of a lot of people on abortion as well as increasing paranoia that the Democratic party won’t categorically default to White interests has made those states a lot harder for Democrats to win, and basically impossible for anyone who isn’t “centrist” (read: willing to consider if not use “post-racial” racism at least in marketing themselves). It’s not out of the question maybe, but Hillary’s status as White only gets her so far if she’s seen as complicit with the Obama administration (which will get used to brand her as having left the region behind), and her being a woman opens up new difficulties in that area.

    What Hillary does do is put West Virginia in play and make Virginia and North Carolina a bit more lean-democrat. If she plays her cards right (namely by making NAFTA and her defense of it a non-issue) she might similarly solidify a Democratic hold on Ohio. In Missouri/Arkansas/Louisiana and even Georgia she makes Democratic competition a bit easier maybe (depending on how everything plays out), but won’t necessarily put those in play even. Kentucky might be an interesting bellwether since it has a lot of the post-unionization populist conservatism of southern Ohio and West Virginia, but also a lot of the uplands Southern conservatism of Tennessee (which I suspect won’t budge at all over Clinton).

  220. 220
    Bobby Thomson says:

    @Roger Moore: Ford has a law degree from Yale.

  221. 221
    Bobby Thomson says:

    @shortstop:

    Arkansas and Missouri have shifted dramatically to the right; I do not think they’re coming back to us. Tennessee and Louisiana will stay firmly red. The only state I see her putting back in play for us is West Virginia, and I’m not even sure about that.

    Georgia, Montana, and Arizona have a better chance of flipping back than those states. Texas might even have a better chance.

  222. 222
    shortstop says:

    @Bobby Thomson: Texas and Georgia really could happen in the next decade or so. Arizona…maybe. Montana…hmmmm. But none of them in 2016. WV, on the other hand, might go for Hillary in 2016, or at least that’s what I’m wondering.

    Anyway, yes, AR, MO, TN and LA are permanently red.

  223. 223
    Cervantes says:

    @Chris:

    It doesn’t, but IMO it does describe the way the New York and Washington elites think about them. They’re unserious teabaggers, or at least playing along with them way too much to the point that they’ve become the mask. They put the emphasis on all the wrong things, like abortion and gay marriage and contraception rather than the Confidence Fairy, and worse, they take these things so far that it becomes embarrassing and electorally troublesome for the party. (Granted, that describes Huckabee and Santorum better, I mighta been wrong to include Ted Cruz).

    I don’t think “white trash” accurately describes Bill Clinton either, certainly not after rising through law school, prestigious East Coast universities, and the like. But it’s often pointed out that this is exactly how Official Washington saw him, no matter how long the list of credentials.

    So your point is not that Huckabee, Santorum, and Cruz will not garner support from the Republican elite because they are “backwoods hicks” — but rather that the elite will not support Huckabee and Santorum because the latter two focus on the wrong issues; or rather, cannot (any longer) be trusted to prioritize the important issues?

    I agree with this, more or less, but then the question arises: do you think that they (the media elite: Broder et al.) felt, throughout the ’90s, that Clinton, even with his elite educational background and early policy decisions (e.g., to focus on the deficit), could not be trusted to prioritize the important issues? Or when they gave in to their obvious distaste for him, were they foolishly taking their eyes off the ball?

    Anyhow, thanks.

  224. 224
    Cervantes says:

    @sparrow:

    I wouldn’t be surprised If Hillary lost the white woman vote, frankly.

    To whom, in your mind’s eye?

  225. 225
    Cervantes says:

    @Anoniminous:

    Nobody in 2005/2006 was talking about some dude from Illinois as a serious candidate.

    Really? Wasn’t he on the cover of Time? (“Why Barack Obama Could Be The Next President,” October 23, 2006)

    Or were you talking about some other dude from Illinois?

  226. 226
    Cervantes says:

    @Another Holocene Human:

    In my experience the Left is too busy crafting artist’s statements to explain why they don’t vote and why that makes them better than you to actually learn about any candidates. They don’t even know shit about the people they do eventually flog. It’s kinda sad.

    Who are these people you’re talking about?

  227. 227
    colby says:

    @Omnes Omnibus: Agreed. State legislators don’t want POTUS campaigns fought out at the CD level. Think about it: some bullshit state legislator from the Philly suburbs wants Hillary Clinton to visit his district once a week? Like hell. Throw in the status quo bias and the bedwetters should calm down.

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