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Nobody could have predicted

You are here: Home / Archives for Nobody could have predicted

3rd Party candidates and second choices

by David Anderson|  August 7, 20206:45 pm| 54 Comments

This post is in: Politics, Democratic Stupidity, Nobody could have predicted

Building on Adam’s thread on Kanye West (not a sentence I expected to write this year), I wanted to look at the spoiler effect of a third party candidate in a first past the post election. We don’t have great data on that counterfactual, but I think that we can look at Maine’s 2nd Congressional District election in 2018 to get some idea of what percentage of not-first-two party vote is persuadable to vote for one of the two major parties.

Maine using Ranked Choice Voting for its federal elections. A voter sees all the candidates who are running and ranks them from 1 to the number of candidates. The voter has a choice to stop ranking at any point. If there is no clear majority winner in the first round, the ballots of the candidate who received the fewest 1st choice votes are re-allocated on the basis of the second choice. This repeats until there is a clear majority winner.

Maine’s 2nd District went to a RCV run-off in 2018. The first round had the Republican incumbent hold a tiny plurality lead. The Democratic challenger won after the run-off. That is not the interesting part. The interesting part is this paragraph from the Portland Press Herald on the 3rd and 4th choice candidates:

In the end, Golden gained 10,232 votes from the ranked-choice retabulations and Poliquin gained 4,695 votes. That 5,537-vote edge allowed Golden to overcome Poliquin’s 2,632-vote lead. Roughly 8,000 of the ballots cast for the independents did not designate an additional choice or did not select either of the major-party candidates.

Roughly 8,000 out of almost 23,000 minor party voters did not choose a major party candidate. These folks were mobilized specifically for the minor party candidate. However over three fifths of the minor party voters were okay with at least one of the major party candidates. We can assume that most of them would likely have voted for a major party candidate in a first past the post system.

So what does that mean?

Some fraction of a third party candidate’s vote is never in play for a major party candidate. However a decent to large chunk of it is in play. And an ideological or identity based third party candidate is going get most of the in-play voters from the major party closest to it. So, a spoiler candidate is likely to get some small percentage of idiosyncratic voters who were never in play and then a good size sliver of voters from the major party closest to it. Looking at Maine, the 2nd District results had a net swing of about 1.8% which in a close race was a decisive swing.

3rd Party candidates and second choicesPost + Comments (54)

Wednesday Morning Open Thread: Another Day of Ugliness

by Anne Laurie|  December 4, 20196:29 am| 137 Comments

This post is in: Impeachment Inquiry, Open Threads, Republican Venality, Trumpery, All Too Normal, Let A Thousand Watergates Bloom, Looks Like I Picked the Wrong Week to Stop Sniffing Glue, Nobody could have predicted

The projection. And the abject fear. https://t.co/UOoLn5tLjt

— Tom Nichols (@RadioFreeTom) December 4, 2019

I’m still like 40% convinced that if Pelosi held a press conference to announce her view that Trump is too stupid to have demanded that Ukraine investigate Biden in exchange for aid, he’d just blurt out a confession.

— Josh Chafetz (@joshchafetz) December 2, 2019

Schiff says “it’s deeply concerning” that there may have been members of Congress “complicit” in Trump seeking dirt on political foes – responding to phone logs uncovered Nunes interactions

— Manu Raju (@mkraju) December 3, 2019

For those who've questioned impeaching now while evidence is still unfolding, Schiff has a response: "This repeated & pervasive threat to our democratic electoral process added urgency to our work." Trump is cheating to win in 2020. Schiff felt the country couldn't afford to wait

— Joyce Alene (@JoyceWhiteVance) December 3, 2019

As Democrats prepare to draft articles of impeachment, "you could wind up with 3 or 4 articles," sources tell NBC News:

•One to two on abuse of power
•One on broader contempt/obstruction of Congress
•One related to the Mueller report and obstructionhttps://t.co/S86Qqnw2qo

— Kyle Griffin (@kylegriffin1) December 3, 2019

I haven’t been able to watch all the way through this, but from what I have it’s a good, if crowded, recap:

My friend Jack Bryan with @ActMeasuresDoc has done a great service and condensed the impeachment hearings so far into an easy to digest 60 minutes. https://t.co/V6mzfyTHon

— Adam Parkhomenko (@AdamParkhomenko) December 1, 2019

Wednesday Morning Open Thread: Another Day of UglinessPost + Comments (137)

Trump & the Trumplodytes Open Thread: Resentful Losers Run Amuck

by Anne Laurie|  November 3, 20195:14 pm| 112 Comments

This post is in: Excellent Links, Foreign Affairs, Open Threads, Russia, Trumpery, All Too Normal, Ever Get The Feeling You've Been Cheated?, Nobody could have predicted

NEW: Beware middle management! A never-before-seen KGB training manual, which reads like a cross between Pravda and The Office, explains how disgruntled, underpaid employees in the West were rip for recruiting: https://t.co/JgiNdkjOJX

— Michael Weiss (@michaeldweiss) November 3, 2019


The story is members-only, but the teaser tweet did remind me of a certain notorious American personality who’s spent the last quarter-century complaining that nobody appreciates him like he DESERVES…

This story, about “a virtual world in which the president spends significant time mingling with extremists, impostors and spies,“ made me physically ill. https://t.co/PcaTc82Lyd

— Daniel W. Drezner (@dandrezner) November 3, 2019

… Mr. Trump, whose own tweets have warned of deep-state plots against him, accused the House speaker of treason and labeled Republican critics “human scum,” has helped spread a culture of suspicion and distrust of facts into the political mainstream.

The president is also awash in an often toxic torrent that sluices into his Twitter account — roughly 1,000 tweets per minute, many intended for his eyes. Tweets that tag his handle, @realDonaldTrump, can be found with hashtags like #HitlerDidNothingWrong, #IslamIsSatanism and #WhiteGenocide. While filters can block offensive material, the president clearly sees some of it, because he dips into the frothing currents and serves up noxious bits to the rest of the world.

By retweeting suspect accounts, seemingly without regard for their identity or motives, he has lent credibility to white nationalists, anti-Muslim bigots and obscure QAnon adherents like VB Nationalist, an anonymous account that has promoted a hoax about top Democrats worshiping the Devil and engaging in child sex trafficking…

To assess this unprecedented moment, The New York Times examined Mr. Trump’s interactions with Twitter since he took office, reviewing each of his more than 11,000 tweets and the hundreds of accounts he has retweeted, tracking the ways he is exposed to information and replicating what he is likely to see on the platform. The result, including new data analysis and previously unreported details, offers the most comprehensive view yet of a virtual world in which the president spends significant time mingling with extremists, impostors and spies.

Fake accounts tied to intelligence services in China, Iran and Russia had directed thousands of tweets at Mr. Trump, according to a Times analysis of propaganda accounts suspended by Twitter. Iranian operatives tweeted anti-Semitic tropes, saying that Mr. Trump was “being controlled” by global Zionists, and that pulling out of the Iran nuclear treaty would benefit North Korea. Russian accounts tagged the president more than 30,000 times, including in supportive tweets about the Mexican border wall and his hectoring of black football players. Mr. Trump even retweeted a phony Russian account that said, “We love you, Mr. President!”…

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Trump & the Trumplodytes Open Thread: Resentful Losers Run AmuckPost + Comments (112)

Donald Trump’s Nemesis

by John Cole|  November 2, 20193:21 pm| 78 Comments

This post is in: Racist-In-Chief, hoocoodanode, Nobody could have predicted

In the least surprising news EVER, it appears that smugglers have managed to defeat the Trump’s billion dollar boondoggle:

Smuggling gangs in Mexico have repeatedly sawed through new sections of President Trump’s border wall in recent months by using commercially available power tools, opening gaps large enough for people and drug loads to pass through, according to U.S. agents and officials with knowledge of the damage.

The breaches have been made using a popular cordless household tool known as a reciprocating saw that retails at hardware stores for as little as $100. When fitted with specialized blades, the saws can slice through one of the barrier’s steel-and-concrete bollards in a matter of minutes, according to the agents, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly about the barrier-defeating techniques.

After cutting through the base of a single bollard, smugglers can push the steel out of the way, allowing an adult to fit through the gap. Because the bollards are so tall — and are attached only to a panel at the very top — their length makes them easier to push aside once they have been cut and are left dangling, according to engineers consulted by The Washington Post.

Now I hardly feel smart for having PREDICTED THIS, because anyone with two functioning brain cells could have told you this was going to happen. Unfortunately, that requirement is daunting for Trump and his base, who demanded a wall to keep them dammned furriners out. Honestly, the only possible way you could think this wall would work in any way, shape, or form, is if you are so fucking stupid that you have never examined the history of EVERY FUCKING BORDER WALL EVER BUILT and so fucking racist that you think Mexicans do not have access to sophisticated technologies like ladders, shovels, and… saws.

Of course, not every one is a fucking moron, so there were actual proposals that would have been cheaper, would not have impeded on landowners rights, and not served as a giant stain on the landscape and our nation’s character, but those were ignored:

But it is fertile for an invisible kind of fence, one built of artificial intelligence, radar, drones, sensors, motion-activated cameras and even lidar, the same technology used in self-driving vehicles.

“Virtual walls” or “smart walls” along the southwest border are increasingly being billed as an alternative to the proposed concrete and steel barriers that have so sharply divided public opinion.

An electronic fence is not about preventing intrusion as much as it is about detecting intrusions and then intercepting them.

Although even the strongest proponents for such a technological solution admit physical barriers are likely best in urban areas such as San Diego and El Paso, they see a virtual wall as a cheaper and more effective way to police much of the rest of the 2,000-mile southwest border.

If you were actually serious about this hypothetical “invasion” of illegals, this is what you might consider. If you’re just concerned with riling up your ignorant ass racist base with apocryphal tales of illegal hordes, you build a fucking wall that anyone can saw through.

Donald Trump’s NemesisPost + Comments (78)

Late Night Open Thread: Au Revoir, Little Red Sparrow

by Anne Laurie|  October 28, 201912:36 am| 33 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Gun Issues, Open Threads, Republican Stupidity, Republican Venality, Russia, #notintendedtobeafactualstatement, All we want is life beyond the thunderdome, Both Sides Do It!, Nobody could have predicted, Riveted By The Sociological Significance Of It All

At the airport, Butina tells a group of journos that “Russians don’t surrender,” apparently forgetting that she pleaded guilty to a felony in the US and testified against Alexander Torshin, which got him booted out of Russia’s Central Bank. pic.twitter.com/O8a3SfdZdE

— Kevin Rothrock (@KevinRothrock) October 26, 2019

NEW: Maria Butina Receives Hero’s Welcome in Moscow https://t.co/6ZjkYPQ6Fv

My latest for @thedailybeast

— Julia Davis (@JuliaDavisNews) October 26, 2019

One day you’re the NRA’s top pin-up girl, the next you’re (allegedly) fighting for food in an American prison:

… Eagerly anticipating Butina’s impending liberation, Russian state media outlets expected to live-stream her release, but U.S. authorities had other plans. Having traveled to the Tallahassee Federal Correctional Institution from Atlanta, Georgia and Jacksonville, Florida, Russian state TV stringers were stranded for hours filming traffic, building exits and geese on the lawn. Meanwhile, Butina was quietly whisked out of the facility and transferred to the custody of ICE for a speedy deportation back to Russia…

Appearing on 60 Minutes—the most popular news talk show in Russia—the correspondent of Russia’s state-TV channel Rossiya-24 Valentin Bogdanov pointed out that the Western media no longer dares to call Butina a spy. “They’re being careful,” Bogdanov said, speculating that media outlets are afraid of being sued for using the wrong language. In the Kremlin-controlled Russian media, Butina is being described mainly in glowing terms…

Working at the direction of a Russian government official, Alexander Torshin, Butina infiltrated Republican political circles and the National Rifle Association around the time of the 2016 election in order to promote Russian interests. In September of 2019, an investigation by Senate Democrats determined that the NRA has acted as a “foreign asset” in providing Russian officials access to US political organizations.

In court documents, prosecutors argued that Butina’s efforts had the hallmarks of a Russian espionage operation, suggesting that she was acting as a “spotter” by identifying people who have the ability to influence policy in Russia’s favor, as a set of targets Russian spies could potentially cultivate. Investigators from special counsel Robert Mueller’s team questioned Butina on only one occasion for approximately an hour. Her name was left out of the final version of the Special Counsel’s redacted report. Many questions about the full scope of Maria Butina’s activities in the United States remain unanswered…

There is little doubt that Maria Butina will be actively used by Russian state media for anti-American propaganda. Butina also has other plans. In April, she told CNN that she might start tutoring Russian students who want to study in America.

Maria Butina says she has no plans to return to the US at the moment for personal safety reasons. She has been deported for committing a felony and would never be allowed back. https://t.co/SIWzvRsdtu

— X Soviet (@XSovietNews) October 26, 2019

On the surface, but historically Russia has always assumed that those jailed abroad may have been recruited while in custody, and they have met unpleasant fates on their return. https://t.co/6Gf0SdIS5r

— X Soviet (@XSovietNews) October 26, 2019

Putin expects others to be like him and keep someone in prison until an exchange is agreed. Maria Butina was released even before the end of her sentence, so Putin has no need to offer Paul Whelan in return. For him people are just bargaining chips. https://t.co/vo6YQtb8HI

— X Soviet (@XSovietNews) October 26, 2019

Why would Alexander Malkevich (left), the editor of one of the Internet Research Agency’s disinformation websites aimed at the United States be meeting Maria Butina with flowers at the Moscow airport? Sure looks like him. https://t.co/12P70I5u05

— Mike Walker (@New_Narrative) October 26, 2019

Late Night Open Thread: <em>Au Revoir</em>, Little Red SparrowPost + Comments (33)

Friday Morning Open Thread: Thick Mick Mulvaney Knows What His President Likes

by Anne Laurie|  October 18, 20195:59 am| 271 Comments

This post is in: Hail to the Hairpiece, Impeachment Inquiry, Open Threads, Republican Stupidity, Republican Venality, #notintendedtobeafactualstatement, Assholes, Fucked-up-edness, Nobody could have predicted

“You and what army?” pic.twitter.com/8TijggA6cD

— Schooley (@Rschooley) October 17, 2019

… Pre-sorted Starbursts, free money, and the wholehearted defense of even his dumbest moves.

Problem is, the guy with this kind of single-minded dedication to Lord Smallgloves’ whims is not necessarily an intellectual heavyweight.

here, from the WH podium, is Chief of Staff Mulvaney acknowledging quid pro quo – military aid for Ukraine to defend itself from Russian aggression in return for “DNC server” investigation intended to absolve Russia for its interference in 2016 election to help Trump win https://t.co/e5dk0J6ClX

— John Harwood (@JohnJHarwood) October 17, 2019

"To be clear, what you described is a quid pro quo" — Here's Mick Mulvaney casually admitting that Trump held up aid to Ukraine as leverage to get the Ukrainian government to investigate the 2016 election pic.twitter.com/ylz7BKEmKd

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) October 17, 2019

Everyone’s free to choose the name by which they’re known, but as I have been pointing out for some time, Mick is generally not the cognomen of someone renowned for his wisdom.

Anyone stupid enough to work for Trump is too stupid to pull off the con. https://t.co/Fbw0Pgxg9o

— The Hoarse Whisperer (@HoarseWisperer) October 17, 2019

Journos: don’t soft pedal was Mulvaney just said. They froze weapons aid to Ukraine until they agreed to get on board the Seth Rich/Crowdstrike server conspiracy theory. Why not just demand the Kurds invade Comet Ping Pong. We’re in freefall here.

— Josh Marshall (@joshtpm) October 17, 2019

Voiceover: Later, that same day…

NEW: Mulvaney walks back today's press briefing: “There never was any condition on the flow of the aid related to the matter of the DNC server.”

— Peter Alexander (@PeterAlexander) October 17, 2019

Like everyone around Trump, seems like Mulvaney’s goal is now protecting himself. This is the area where he has personal exposure and details of his involvement had started leaking out. So he got out there and put it on the president. https://t.co/CVz2daPnwz

— Matthew Miller (@matthewamiller) October 17, 2019

SRSLY?

trump actually thought mick did a good job until someone had to tell trump that in fact mick did not do a good job https://t.co/IztPoX50uq

— darth™ (@darth) October 17, 2019

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Friday Morning Open Thread: Thick Mick Mulvaney Knows What His President LikesPost + Comments (271)

Late Night Open Thread: So Where’s Your Tipping Point, Repubs?

by Anne Laurie|  October 18, 201912:25 am| 115 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Grifters Gonna Grift, Hail to the Hairpiece, Open Threads, Repubs in Disarray!, Nobody could have predicted

G7 to Doral is hardly today's only news about @realDonaldTrump profiting from his presidency:

An evening of prayer for the Kurds is scheduled for Trump Hotel DC.

Trump will profit from people praying for a remedy to a crisis he instigated.

via @1100Penn https://t.co/AoSL97C28O

— Zach Everson (@Z_Everson) October 18, 2019

How bad does @realdonaldtrump’s Doral need this business? Look what’s happened there during his presidency. In ONE YEAR, from ‘16-‘17:
—revenue fell 13.8%
—Net operating income fell 62% pic.twitter.com/RTr9OST3wd

— David Fahrenthold (@Fahrenthold) October 17, 2019

She makes a good point! We *dont* know if @realdonaldtrump is making a profit or losing $ overall. To me, the bigger Q is: is Trump using his power to force people to pay him money?
Today, the answer was a huge yes. https://t.co/J0tzQyjSwG

— David Fahrenthold (@Fahrenthold) October 18, 2019

Trump doesn't want to put out any fires. His campaign (and Putin) taught him and his team that ten fires are better than one. Only so many firefighters, only so much water, and they are far easier to start than to put out. https://t.co/VoNs0ESUSm

— Mig Greengard (@chessninja) October 17, 2019

It always feels like it’s getting worse, but also it’s getting worse.

— Chris Hayes (@chrislhayes) October 17, 2019

Trump calls Rep. Louie Gohmert "a man who is smart as hell."

— Daniel Dale (@ddale8) October 18, 2019

NEW: Things aren't getting better for the Senate's most vulnerable Republicans.

Incumbents in #MESen #NCSen #COSen #AZSen and #IASen saw their net approval slide in the third quarter, with a 9 point drop for Joni Ernst – the biggest fall in the Senate. https://t.co/hSIvK5ez1A pic.twitter.com/KlLZJGPE9r

— Eli Yokley (@eyokley) October 17, 2019

I’ve said since November 2016 that:

A. I don’t think Trump will finish his term

B. Likely that Repubs will turn on Trump, not out of principle or because it’s a good move for them, but because Trump will get so bad that it’ll be their least catastrophic option

— Dana Houle (@DanaHoule) October 17, 2019

Late Night Open Thread: So Where’s Your Tipping Point, Repubs?Post + Comments (115)

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