i’m still plugging away on the calendar so if you’ve procrastinated sending in a photo, it’s not yet too late.
bjcalendar2017 at yahoo dot com
2017 pets of balloon juice calendar updatePost + Comments (11)
by Beth| 11 Comments
This post is in: Open Threads
i’m still plugging away on the calendar so if you’ve procrastinated sending in a photo, it’s not yet too late.
bjcalendar2017 at yahoo dot com
2017 pets of balloon juice calendar updatePost + Comments (11)
by Adam L Silverman| 152 Comments
This post is in: Domestic Politics, Election 2016, Events, Foreign Affairs, Military, Open Threads, Politics, Silverman on Security, Security Theatre
There is a long term International Relations concept called the security dilemma, or as I like to think of it, the insecurity spiral. The security dilemma is a Realist concept that arises from the lack of an international sovereign. Basically because there is no overarching international controlling power, the actions of one or more states, usually in regard to military preparations, can/are misinterpreted leading to other states undertaking responses that in turn lead the original actor or actors to respond, leading to more counter responses. All of which causes a crisis of security, an insecurity spiral, which increases the possibility of conflict.
To avoid a security dilemma states, intergovernmental organizations, and a lot of non state actors, try to utilize strategic communication. Joint Publication 5-0 defines strategic communication as:
… efforts to understand and engage key audiences to create, strengthen, or preserve conditions favorable for the advancement of … interests, policies, and objectives through the use of coordinated programs, plans, themes, messages, and products synchronized with the actions of all instruments of national power. Also called SC.
President-elect Trump’s recent, unsecured communications with many foreign heads of state have many concerned that these conversations are creating a type of security dilemma whereby the President-elect unintentionally or intentionally changes decades of American policy and strategic posture. And does so without the benefit of a State Department Protocol Officer, State Department pre-briefing to prepare for these calls, and secured comms to ensure that his conversations cannot be intercepted and used against the US (and our allies and partners) in the future. These communications have heightened tensions between India and Pakistan. And we now have an escalation in regard to the People’s Republic of China, which actually places the ongoing security of Taiwan at risk.
We're truly in uncharted territory. https://t.co/sZP6Wu8xUU
— Josh Marshall (@joshtpm) December 4, 2016
Did China ask us if it was OK to devalue their currency (making it hard for our companies to compete), heavily tax our products going into..
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) December 4, 2016
If you know anything about Chinese foreign-policy people, this will get your attention. Shen opposite of a hothead https://t.co/zXH2aw08rL pic.twitter.com/OxZeB5oczZ
— James Fallows (@JamesFallows) December 3, 2016
While some of this is a unique combination of the age of social media, 24/7 news media, and the Internet and a President-elect who seems addicted to social media and has a unique talent for capturing 24/7 news media, it is not unknown. To a certain extent the events that led up to World War I were the result of a classic security dilemma leading to a catastrophic insecurity spiral and the outbreak of actual war.
More recently, in the early 1980s, the aggressive attempts by President Reagan to pressure the Soviet Union led to a breakdown that almost led to war over the NATO war game known as Able Archer.
But just to remind us all of Cold War history, Reagan did indeed shock the Soviets as part of a coherent plan. And it nearly backfired. /1
— Tom Nichols (@RadioFreeTom) December 3, 2016
By 1983, however, Reagan realized he'd been too successful: the Soviets – or some of them – were convinced he intended nuclear war. /3
— Tom Nichols (@RadioFreeTom) December 3, 2016
Able Archer was a 1983 NATO war game that was misinterpreted by the Soviet Union. The signals intercepts being made by Soviet Intelligence led them to mistakenly believe that NATO, led by the US and Britain, was preparing a nuclear strike against the Soviet Union. This almost kicked off a classic security dilemma as the Soviets mobilized in response to the war game. This was initially misinterpreted by NATO as the Soviets conducting their own, counter, war game. Fortunately, cooler heads prevailed. After Able Archer’s conclusion, British Intelligence provided a complete report on the security dilemma that resulted from the strategic miscommunication to Downing Street, which then communicated to the Reagan Administration in order to prevent something like this from ever happening again. The documentary below details Able Archer, the Soviet Response, and just how closely everyone, on every side, escaped a war caused by misinterpretation from unintended miscommunication.
by John Cole| 94 Comments
This post is in: John Cole Presents "This Fucking Old House"
I didn’t get around to the house update on Friday, so here is a quick mini update on the kitchen. We got the walls up and the room painted, and the counters are in:
The kitchen might be done in the next week!
This post is in: Don't Mourn, Organize, Energy Policy, Daydream Believers, Fuck Yeah!
BREAKING: Army Corps halts Dakota Access Pipeline work, tells Standing Rock the current route for the pipeline will be denied.
— Ali Velshi (@AliVelshi) December 4, 2016
Goddess, I hope this isn’t another lie from “our” government…
The secretary of the Army Corps of Engineers has told Standing Rock Sioux Chairman David Archambault that the current route for the Dakota Access pipeline will be denied.
The proposed route led to a protest encampment by the Standing Rock Sioux and other activists.
The 1,172-mile pipeline is nearly complete except for a small section beneath a Missouri River reservoir near the encampment, which is about 50 miles south of Bismarck.
Archambault cheered the decision in a statement Sunday.
“I am thankful there were some leaders in the feral government that realized something was not right even though its legal,” he said. “For the first time in hisopry native American, they heard our voices. This is something that will go down in history and is a blessing for all indigenous people.
I heard the army corp of engineers will not grant the easement and they will reroute.
I would say that it is over.”…
Story’s been picked up by the AP / Washington Post.
ETA:
Today's @usarmy announcement underscores that tribal rights are essential components to analysis of #DAPL going forward.SJ pic.twitter.com/2VAiubBTLL
— Sally Jewell (@SecretaryJewell) December 4, 2016
This post is in: C.R.E.A.M., Hail to the Hairpiece, Open Threads, Republican Venality, Trump Crime Cartel, Assholes
Who throws a costume party in December anyway, other than in Eyes Wide Shut? https://t.co/oHJN3LFM81
— Schooley (@Rschooley) December 4, 2016
Somewhere Jay Gatsby is going, “Ugh, tacky. ” But not Politico! “Trump attends donor’s ‘Villains and Heroes’ party — as himself”:
President-elect Donald Trump on Saturday night attended a lavish costume party on Long Island hosted by his biggest donors, the Mercer family…
According to a Saturday evening pool report, Trump’s motorcade arrived at the party at 8:35 p.m. As Trump entered, dressed in a dark suit, overcoat and tie, he was asked who he was dressed as. Pointing at himself, the president-elect mouthed the word “Me.” Neither his wife, Melania Trump, nor Trump’s children attended. Top aide Steve Bannon and former campaign manager Kellyanne Conway attended, with Conway dressed as Super Woman, according to the pool report…
Although Trump during the campaign decried the influence of big donors, the Mercer family played a major role in his campaign and has wielded vast influence in his transition.
The family patriarch, hedge fund tycoon Robert Mercer, donated $2 million to a pro-Trump super PAC that came to be run by his daughter Rebekah Mercer, who controls the family’s political operations.
Rebekah Mercer played a pivotal role in persuading Trump to bring on three close allies of hers to run the campaign — incoming White House senior counselor Bannon and top campaign officials Conway and David Bossie…
The Mercers have hosted the party at their estate on Long Island’s North Shore around the holidays in each of the past several years.
It’s become an increasingly hot ticket as the Mercers have become bigger players in conservative politics.
Robert Mercer and his youngest daughter, Heather Sue Mercer, are competitive poker players, and past years’ parties have featured blackjack and poker tables. The Mercers supply chips — free of charge — that can be redeemed at the end of the night for lavish prizes such as gold Rolexes, according to people who have attended.
Staff and security at the event were dressed as Hell’s Angels and retro Salvation Army members, according to the pool report.
So, I guess this was a sort of coming-out party for Rebekah Mercer, as the new generation of bloated plutocrat parasitizing our commonwealth.
Maybe the best outcome the rest of us can hope for is that Ms. “But She’s the Smart One” comes to blows with “Daddy’s Little Princess” before the Trump Kakistocracy can embed itself too deeply in the national hide. Because I suspect those two have as many issues to work out as their more-famous-for-now daddies…
1. Remember this photo, demonstrating Trump's contempt for ethics and democracy? https://t.co/8TxnnE1Oip pic.twitter.com/Lq2h20IA3k
— Judd Legum (@JuddLegum) December 4, 2016
4. The Japanese retail giant Ivanka wants to do business with is OWNED by the Japanese government https://t.co/wNTKf5qvLC pic.twitter.com/gY4Unn4CLn
— Judd Legum (@JuddLegum) December 4, 2016
Open Thread: Masque of the Red(state) DeathPost + Comments (50)
by TaMara| 178 Comments
This post is in: Authors In Our Midst, Writing Group
Welcome.
To get things started, I’m going to propose two topics, but don’t feel you need to stick to them, I just wanted to give us a place to begin.
jacy provided a great suggestion in the last writers post. With your first comment, introduce yourself, tell us a bit about what you’re writing, what experience you have and what you’re interested in. And remember my golden rules: kind, supportive and informative comments only, leave your snarky, critical, discouraging voice for another time and place.
First topic, by popular request: How to begin and how to stay focused. Hillary R has some very helpful advice over at her place and I’m going to start with this piece:
(1) Show it! Often we procrastinate because we’re afraid to show our work to anyone. (“Afraid” is probably putting it lightly—we’re often terrified.) So stop hoarding your work and start showing it. But be judicious: there’s no point in showing to clueless or callous people. Show only to kind supporters who “get” what you’re trying to do.
Start now! Show bits and pieces, or the whole thing. Invite any feedback, or certain kinds of feedback, or no feedback at all. (Tell your audience what you want!) The showing, not the feedback, is the important part.
(2) Finish small stuff. Finishing is a skill you can practice. If you’re a fiction writer, write anecdotes and vignettes. (Bring them to completion, and then show them.) If you write nonfiction, write up (and show) one small point instead of several big ones. If you’re stuck on a complex email, write (and send) several small ones instead. (Here’s how to overcome email overload.)
Click on over to the entire article to read the rest. She’s going to try and stop by to answer questions today. What helpful tricks do you have for starting and staying on your writing task?
Second topic, for those who are farther along, or who have actually published and can offer advice. What to do when it’s time to start the editing process. I’ve spent my life in theatre, film and television, so I understand collaborative art, the whole process is a group effort. But I am stymied when it comes to novels and short stories. How do you go about editing – finding a good editor, incorporating their input in what is a highly personal work, what boundaries to set, etc. So I would love to hear your thoughts and struggles in the editing process.
Okay that’s it, have at it…
FYI, to read all our group posts, just click on the Writing Group tag and it will pop all of them up in a window.
by TaMara| 29 Comments
This post is in: Open Threads
When I posted a few days ago that I felt I needed to provide entertainment and distraction, I’m glad you guys took me seriously and sent me some fun things to post! Here are a few submissions:
Bystander sent a cute picture of Buster, who just turned 11:
Our Buster turns 11 on Monday. So we are celebrating with a few salmon roe along with this month’s flea/tick/heartworm treatment. Buster is not a natural for the camera, hence no modeling career. Cheers, bystander
And Laura sent a few cute pix, here are two:
And finally, I saw this yesterday. Swan man to the rescue:
Send me more stuff, I’ll post it. I also received some great recipes, so I’ll put this out there again:
if anyone wants to send me recipes and info on different holiday celebrations, please do. I would love to post about that – include photos!
Open thread.