O. Felix Culpa and I will be having lunch at Joe’s on Rodeo Road Monday, June 19, at noon.
Any Juicer in the area is welcome to join us.
This post is in: Events, Meetups and social events
O. Felix Culpa and I will be having lunch at Joe’s on Rodeo Road Monday, June 19, at noon.
Any Juicer in the area is welcome to join us.
by Betty Cracker| 560 Comments
This post is in: Open Threads, Politics
Trump is supposed to make a statement about the Alexandria shooting shortly. I won’t be watching, but I’ll update this space with a transcript as soon as possible.
As far as national crises go, this would appear to be a minor one. No died in this incident,* thank FSM. But a political shooting is always traumatic, and now there’s some evidence emerging that the alleged shooter was an alt-left nutbar.
So, knowing what we know about Trump, what are the chances he handles this situation with the grace and humility befitting the office? Just about zero, I’d say. We’ll see.
*Update: the shooter has died.
ETA: Okay, I ended up watching it after all and was pleasantly surprised. It wasn’t a well-written or expertly delivered statement by any means, and it’s an embarrassment, as always, to see that clown looming over the presidential seal.
But it was a pretty innocuous statement — thoughts and prayers, yada yada. If Trump is going to use the incident as a political cudgel, he’ll do it on Twitter later. Will post transcript when available.
This post is in: Anderson On Health Insurance
Earlier this week, Iowa asked for a “rescue” plan for their individual exchange market for 2018. There is an inherently contradictory counterfactual that underlies any waiver that can be granted. This means there will be a lot of lawyers.
Iowa basically wants to turn its 2018 ACA market into a the bastard child of the 2019 and 2020 AHCA markets. The major elements are below:
Iowa is asking for additional federal funding and a massive waiver. Tim Jost at Health Affairs has a critical summary:
Iowa essentially says that it has a crisis, and the only way to meet it is to establish a different program than that established by the ACA, which it wants the federal government to fund. Iowa has a real problem but so do a number of other states (although notably California and other states that have embraced the ACA and tried to make it work have often fared better). However, rewriting the ACA without congressional authority and giving federal money to a state without a congressional appropriation raises serious concerns, as does a program that would help middle-income enrollees at the cost of those with lower incomes.
It is also hard to believe that Iowa could possibly stand up what is essentially a state exchange, determining eligibility, calculating premium tax credits, and paying insurers, in less than five months. States that had far more preparation time failed to do so in 2013 and 2014.
There are two major issues with the 1332 criteria. There are four major guide posts for a 1332 waiver. The waiver must provide at coverage at least as comprehensive as the baseline ACA, with cost sharing protections at least as good as the ACA to at least the same number of people at no more net federal costs than the ACA.
Iowa’s argument is one of choosing a favorable counterfactual. Their counterfactual will be that their plan will meet the coverage requirements of at least as good for as many people as the ACA if one assumes that the ACA will cover no one on the Exchange because there will be no insurers on the Exchange. That is a plausible counter-factual. It is one that can be defended with a straight face.
However, let’s think about the implication of that counterfactual. In this scenario, the ACA will cover no one. Covering no one means the federal government spends no money.
Yet Iowa wants to be funded as if they have normal enrollment at normal premium growth rates. This might be a problem.
Oops.
The second major issue is the disappearance of Cost Sharing Reduction subsidies. These subsidies bump up the actuarial value of policies for people who earn between 100% and 250% Federal Poverty Line (FPL) so that a Silver plan has a bump in actuarial value from a maximum of 72% to anywhere from 73% to 94% actuarial value depending on income. The single Silver plan has a lower actuarial value than the weakest CSR Silver plan. This is most notable for people earning under 150% FPL as they would transition from plans with $500 deductibles to plans with $3,500 deductibles. This is a major violation of the 1332 guidelines. It is not rational regulatory wiggle room. There are plenty of people who would have standing to sue as they will be harmed.
There is a good argument that reinsurance will help stabilize the market. The Iowa market has the case example for the benefit of a high cost risk pool or invisible risk sharing or reinsurance or whatever else you want to call it where a small cluster of people are carved out of the general pool and their care is paid for by a much larger pool including external to premiums funding. But between a contradictory counterfactual and the elimination of the CSR assistance, I don’t know how this potential waiver survives a lawsuit.
This post is in: Because of wow., I'm With Her, Open Threads, Post-racial America, Proud to Be A Democrat, Republicans in Disarray!, Russiagate, Let A Thousand Watergates Bloom
Kamala Harris just handed Jeff Sessions his ass https://t.co/6SGRQVoF6V pic.twitter.com/jcOrIQya10
— Jezebel (@Jezebel) June 13, 2017
It's unacceptable that Sessions – the top law enforcement official in the country – cannot name his legal basis for evading questions.
— Kamala Harris (@SenKamalaHarris) June 13, 2017
Sessions during questioning from Sen. Kamala Harris: “I’m not able to be rushed this fast. It makes me nervous.” https://t.co/LaEV7O06ax
— NBC News (@NBCNews) June 13, 2017
Kamala Harris is single-handedly destroying another Confederate monument. #SessionsHearing
— Torraine Walker (@TorraineWalker) June 13, 2017
Harris did a very effective job there in getting Sessions to admit the policy he's citing to not answer questions doesn't actually exist
— Michael Cohen (@speechboy71) June 13, 2017
Kamala Harris pummels Jeff Sessions so bad John McCain has to jump in to stop her https://t.co/ODX9sIA3wK pic.twitter.com/D4vhI7tL0B
— Jonathan Chait (@jonathanchait) June 13, 2017
What is it about Kamala Harris that makes her the only Senator Republicans interrupt at every hearing?
— Matthew Miller (@matthewamiller) June 13, 2017
Kamala Harris: What policy are you using to avoid answering?
Jeff Sessions: White privelege
KH: That's not a
Burr: WHITE MALE PRIVILEGE
— Frederick Douglass (@HITEXECUTIVE) June 13, 2017
Re-read Harris's questioning of Sessions: maybe the reason McCain/Burr wanted to shut her down is that she was so thoroughly pwning Sessions https://t.co/hJtRU5GRHg
— Michael Cohen (@speechboy71) June 13, 2017
I don’t want to make this post any longer, but y’all should definitely go read the Jezebel and Chait links, because they are mood-enhancing.
Jason Miller: Sessions knocked away "hysteria from Kamala Harris"
Kirsten Powers: “How was Sen. Harris hysterical?” https://t.co/ivRYRNSzBZ— Anderson Cooper 360° (@AC360) June 14, 2017
by David Anderson| 286 Comments
This post is in: All we want is life beyond the thunderdome
Text from Mo Brooks, who was at the congressional baseball game practice. pic.twitter.com/gRVj8YjTIU
— Matt Fuller (@MEPFuller) June 14, 2017
Hopefully this is random violence and not politically motivated violence.
Let’s wait for more information to come in before speculating too much.
Cheryl makes the very important point:
Reports of a shooting at Alexandria VA, at a congressional baseball practice. As news breaks, keep these in mind: pic.twitter.com/9qWAHMpqZv
— On the Media (@onthemedia) June 14, 2017
Hopefully random violence instead motivated violencePost + Comments (286)
by David Anderson| 24 Comments
This post is in: Nixonland, Open Threads
My family finally moved from Pittsburgh to North Carolina. That means I am happy. It also means I am staring at 100+ cardboard boxes to unpack and re-sort.
So blogging will be light.
But even as it is light, continue to call the Senate:
When you call a Senate office, ask to speak to the relevant Health Legislative Assistant. Hey look, a list of staffer names! 18/ pic.twitter.com/UQ0yZNaSxc
— Ben Wikler (@benwikler) June 8, 2017
The ask is simple — no bill that leads to coverage losses.
This post is in: Local Races 2018 and earlier, Open Threads, Proud to Be A Democrat, #notintendedtobeafactualstatement
Here's a picture of the police escort that Trump got to go golfing (again) this weekend.
Do you think they were trying to say something? pic.twitter.com/UGeVokhi7X
— Holly O'Reilly (@AynRandPaulRyan) June 14, 2017
What’s on the agenda as we gear up for another day?
Results are in from the Virginia special primaries…
Congratulations to @RalphNortham. Let's go win this thing—united. Let's take back the House and ensure VA remains a firewall against hate.
— Tom Perriello (@tomperriello) June 14, 2017
A huge reason why Northam won tonight: AA voters. Whether it's skepticism towards "Bernie wing" of party, I'll leave to others to debate.
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) June 13, 2017
I supported @tomperriello for #VAgov because we’d fought together for consumers. But we were lucky to have 2 great candidates running.
— Elizabeth Warren (@elizabethforma) June 14, 2017
Per the Washington Post,
…Republican Ed Gillespie held off a surprising challenge from Donald Trump acolyte Corey A. Stewart for that party’s nomination.
… Stewart refus[ed] to concede and [said] he wouldn’t support Gillespie, a man he derided throughout the campaign as “Establishment Ed.”…
Stewart’s strength on the Republican ballot was the biggest surprise of the evening. He had been running as more Trump than Trump, making provocative statements and campaigning on the issue of preserving Confederate monuments. Polls had shown him with a fraction of Gillespie’s support, but a low turnout among Republican voters gave Stewart’s committed base an outsize influence, and Wagner drew significant votes in Hampton Roads that might otherwise have gone to Gillespie.
Overall, Democrats turned out in far greater numbers than Republicans. About 540,000 voters cast ballots in the Democratic gubernatorial primary, while just over 360,000 voters cast ballots on the Republican side, with nearly all precincts reporting…
Gillespie’s narrow win, coming from a small and apparently unenthusiastic electorate, suggests that he faces a major challenge as he tries to both woo Stewart voters and attract moderates and independents while he fights a highly motivated Democratic opposition…
Northam is the Democrat who called Trump a 'narcissistic maniac.' Winning strategy for Dem primaries? https://t.co/in8mjiXJpq
— She persisted (@CaseyHinds) June 14, 2017
Wednesday Morning Open Thread: Suggestive?Post + Comments (109)