Dems made quick work of the House Republican impeachment circus, striking the tents in an afternoon. Ted Cruz had time to make an ass of himself, but that’s an everyday thing. Good work, Senate Dems!
It was considerate of Republicans to deliver charges today, when Trump’s trial in New York is NOT in session. Now they won’t get the hoped for distraction. And they need to draw the nation’s attention elsewhere because, as Josh Marshall at TPM observes, Trump’s entire game is domination. And in the courtroom, the judge is the alpha dog:
What is clear to anyone who has ever tried to understand the man is that he lives in a binary world of the dominating and the dominated. The visuals around the man endlessly illustrate this. Most of us live in a much more fluid and textured world. We interact with most people on a ground of relative equality. Where real differentials of power exist most of us try to paper over those realities with softening trappings. Trump’s whole world view, the way he interacts with friends and foes, won’t accept any middle ground. And this is more than just performance. It’s clear that this is deeply rooted in his experience of the world. Being dominated is a kind of social and ego death. That’s why he’s so good at his whole racket. Because it’s coded so deeply into him.
Nothing puts you more squarely in the bucket of the dominated than being a defendant in a criminal trial and at risk of losing your freedom. The state makes its case against you and you have to sit there and take it. In case there was any question, the judge told Trump you have to be here in my court and sit here. A dozen randomly picked people hold your fate in their hands. You have to make your case, an actual case. Bullshit and attitude, Trump’s coins of the realm, could work. Unless those twelve people decide it doesn’t.
Seeing Trump sitting there, even on this least weighty prosecution, you get a sense of why he’s fought so tooth and nail to avoid this. The biggest and most obvious reason is that he doesn’t want to go to jail. That is certainly a sufficient reason. But it’s not the whole story. At the most basic level, sitting in the dock is horribly and perhaps even fatally off brand. Trump’s brand is swagger and impunity. Always be dominating. Until you’re not.
I think that’s right. I also agree with something Dan Pfeiffer said about the effect of the trial, which many pundits are assuming (as an article of faith) will not harm Trump at all in the upcoming election.
The scale of his crimes (Donald Trump falsifying records to cover up an extramarital affair) seems like small potatoes when compared to his violent attempt to overthrow an election or stealing closely-held national secrets from the White House and then showing them to random people at his beach club. Trump is unlikely to be sentenced to prison if convicted. Still, a felony conviction months before a divisive election is nothing to scoff at.
Pfeiffer notes that in close elections, everything matters. He also cites polls that show majorities of voters take the charges seriously — even a quarter of Republicans:
One in four 2020 Trump voters are not yet sure if Trump should be acquitted. What happens to those voters if Trump is convicted? Most of them vote for Trump anyway. Partisanship is a hell of a drug, but the results of the Republican Primary suggest that drug’s effects may be waning. The exit polls consistently showed that about 30% of Republican primary voters would not believe Trump was fit for the presidency if convicted.
Even if only a fraction of these voters stay home or vote for Biden, it will be enough to tip the election. In the Times poll, Trump is up by one point while getting 94% of his 2020 voters. If only 3% of those voters decide not to vote for Trump, Biden will win by a decent margin…
Finally, Trump being in the news has generally been bad for him and a high profile trial in the media capital of the world guarantees that much of the political coverage will be centered on the former President for the duration of the trial.
Of course, a conviction doesn’t guarantee a Trump loss, but that’s not the same as saying it doesn’t matter.
I’m not even sure a trial ending in an acquittal or hung jury would erase the spectacle of Trump being dominated daily in the courtroom and raging incoherently on the sidewalk afterward. I agree it doesn’t mean he’ll definitely lose, but it’s not the nothingburger some pundits are making it out to be.
My theory is their brains broke when The Beast clawed his way back to GOP dominance after the coup attempt. So now they think Trump is invincible. With that group, at least, he’s still the alpha dog who they roll over for every time.
Open thread.