Creamsicle Meltdown

New PRRI research released today shows Trump on the losing end of a historic gender gap:


As expected, non-whites favor Clinton over Trump by huge margins (72% vs. 17%), but Clinton is also annihilating Trump among white women with a college degree (68% to 29%), and even white women without a degree are split 40%-40% between Clinton and Trump. The findings can be read in full here.

Meanwhile, the incomparable Sam Bee weighed in on PussyGate and presidential debate #2. The whole show was fabulous, but here’s a clip:

Samantha Bee called presidential debate #2 a “grotesque travesty of democracy.” Pretty much! As I mentioned yesterday, many of us lady folk were angry and disgusted at the spectacle of a qualified woman like Hillary Clinton being stalked and insulted by hirsute walking Roofie.

Bee says Trump knows he’s losing and is therefore prepared to “suicide-bomb” the election. If Trump’s Twitter output this morning is any indication, Bee is dead right about that:

Uh-oh. He’s shaking out the Tic Tacs right now and limbering up the stubby orange fingers. It’s time to protect your pussy, America! C’mon ladies — and allies of all genders! Let’s knee this sleazy shitbag in the groin and step over his bloated carcass into history!

Be safe as Matthew bears down

For all of our Southeastern US readers, be safe and don’t be stupid as Hurricane Matthew bears down.

Via the Wunderblog:

An 11:03 pm Wednesday fix from the Air Force hurricane hunters found that Matthew had finally closed off its eyewall, and the central pressure had dropped to 959 mb. In its 11 pm EDT discussion, NHC noted that Matthew’s eye–once again distinct on satellite imagery–has contracted to about 17 miles wide, another sign of strengthening. It may take until midday Thursday for any substantial drop in Matthew’s pressure to result in a stronger wind field. NHC predicts that Matthew will again hit Category 4 intensity by Thursday evening. The 00Z Thursday SHIPS model forecast gave an 11% chance that Matthew would intensify enough to become a Category 5 storm again by Thursday night….

Should Matthew continue on its due-northwest track, it would come uncomfortably close to making landfall along the urban corridor from Miami to Palm Beach. Our most reliable track models insist that Matthew will begin angling just to the right before landfall, which would keep the southern part of this corridor on Matthew’s weaker side. Broward County (including Fort Lauderdale) is in a hurricane warning, while Miami-Dade County is in a tropical storm warning. The risk of dangerous impacts, including hurricane-force winds, ramps up greatly from Palm Beach northward. The most recent NHC forecast (see Figure 2 above) keeps Matthew as a Category 4 hurricane as it reaches the Melbourne area on Friday morning and a strong Category 3 by Friday evening just east of Jacksonville.

A reminder, Category 5 is what Andrew and Katrina were.  Big, bad voodoo.  Sandy despite all of her destruction was only a middling Category 1 storm when it came ashore in New Jersey.  Matthew is a big powerful storm so please don’t be stupid, get away from the coast if possible and please don’t go surfing.


Why would Trump go?

The post-convention Dump Trump movement among Republican operatives and strategerists is growing and getting louder. Politico has the scoop:

Republican insiders in key battleground states have a message for The Donald: Get out.
That’s according to The POLITICO Caucus — a panel of activists, strategists and operatives in 11 swing states. The majority of GOP insiders, 70 percent, said they want Trump to drop out of the race and be replaced by another Republican candidate — with many citing Trump’s drag on Republicans in down-ballot races.

I have two big questions. The first is a bit of taunting —“Why the hell could you not organize an orgy at the Bunny Ranch in January?”

Secondly, why the hell would Trump agree? A Dump and Replace Trump movement has severe mechanical limitations. Ballots will start to be printed in the next couple of weeks so there is a hard time constraint on any Trump Replacement movement. More importantly, any Dump and Replace Trump action has two major players who have to agree and a hostile player who has a say. A successful Dump Trump action needs the “establishment” Republican Party to agree to the action (they’re as an institution is either there or close to it) as well as Donald J. Trump to agree to be replaced.

The Republican insider argument is that Trump will cost them the White House, will cost them the Senate and will significantly reduce (best case scenario) the current GOP majority in the House. That means Trump will cost them the Supreme Court median vote. All of those are probably true and they are high salience to Movement Conservatives.

Does Donald J. Trump and his voters care deeply about any of those items except for the White House?


He does not care about the House, he does not care about the Senate. He does not care about policy outcomes. He has a very limited shadow of the future and a very narrow give a fuck space that barely intersects with Republican insider give a damn space.

What is the gain for Trump to step aside? His brand is underwater as his name is currently toxic. If he is to step aside, his brand (and his ego) won’t recover quickly. His best chance of re-establishing his brand (and his ego) is to double down and win. If he wins the White House in November even if there are 98 Democrats in the Senate and 431 Democrats in the House, he won, and the Republican establishment are full of losers. His brand would take off and he could make odd speeches at golf courses while Mike Pence attempts to govern.

If he steps aside, the party insiders are better off, but his brand is shit and his ego is bruised as he would be the loser genuflecting to the wills of the loses that he beat in the primary process.

What can the Republican Party insiders offer to Trump that is worth enough to Trump to make it worthwhile for him to step aside?

Until I see a good answer to that question, I am assuming that the Dump Trump movement is merely a stage of grief and not an actual strategy.

Don’t Try This at Home or In Public or Anywhere for That Matter!

Some knucklehead in Phoenix decided to see what would happen if he lit an entire fireworks display on fire (h/t: Sploid) inside a Wal-Mart. This is not a very good idea. Aside from starting a low explosive fire, and fortunately there weren’t any higher powered fireworks on the display or this would have been much, much worse, Arizona is a Constitutional Carry state. This means one can open carry without a permit, as well as conceal carry with or without a permit. The prankster is lucky someone didn’t hear several pops and decide there was an active threat that needed responding too!


Cloud Cuckoo Land

After revoking the WaPo’s press credentials for accurately reporting that he insinuated President Obama is in league with terrorists, Trump is now doubling down on that very same bat-shit insane accusation and tweet-wanking over his own alleged prescience yet again:

The embedded article from Trump propaganda outlet Breitbart is entitled “Hillary Clinton Received Secret Memo Stating Obama Admin ‘Support’ for ISIS.” Vigorously auditioning for the role of “MiniTruth” in the dystopian hellhole of a Trump administration, the Breitbartians offer proof of nothing but their own disconnection from reality and inability to comprehend an intelligence report. Hillary Clinton is not amused:

Early on in this circus, someone observed that Trump’s success in the GOP primary was based on his willingness to ratchet up the insults and accusations beyond the bounds of rational discourse but that eventually, he would run out of room to escalate without sounding like a drooling psychopath.

Fellow citizens, we’ve arrived at that moment: The primaries officially ended last night, and Trump is already accusing both his opponent and the sitting President of the United States of being traitors who conspire with ISIS. I don’t believe in Peak Trump, but I am having a hard time imagining where he goes from here. The Illuminati? Chem trails? Lizard people? Help me out here…

Trump-proofing the Republican nomination process in the future

This post is speculation. It assumes that Trump will lose and lose big in November and that the Republican establishment as defined by a variety of rules committees has the power and the will to institute changes to the Republican primary process to Trump-proof the process.

The easiest way for the Republican Party to Trump-proof itself is to stop lying to its supporters. The Republican Party elite is fundamentally not trustworthy to its base voters. The core example is the promise that a Republican House and a Republican Senate could force President Obama to unwind PPACA while he sat in the White House. That was not going to happen. Trustworthy elites won’t happen as there is too much money to be made from fleecing the rubes. Once we take policy honesty off the table, rule changes are the next step.

Trump is the delegate leader (and presumptive delegate majority holder once the process plays out) with a low proportion of the total vote.

He benefited from a split field and a rules system that allowed factional plurality leaders to amass delegate strength out of proportion to their actual vote counts. Winner take all elections with more than two candidates have this common failure. There were two sets of winner take all elections in this current Republican primary. The first was state level delegates where the winner of a state received a significant bonus number of delegates and then winner take all at the Congressional District level. The Republicans assigned three delegates to each Congressional District without regard to how many Republicans actually lived or voted in that district.

538 has a good example of how this flat allocation of winner take all delegates by district helped Trump:

If Ted Cruz wins by a huge margin in Milwaukee’s suburbs, as expected tonight, he’ll get all three delegates from Wisconsin’s 5th Congressional District, which cast 257,017 votes for Mitt Romney in the 2012 general election. But in two weeks, Donald Trump could capture just as many delegates by winning a majority of the vote in New York’s heavily Latino, Bronx-based 15th Congressional District, which cast only 5,315 votes for Romney four years ago.

Three weeks ago, Trump won three times as many delegates — nine — at the Northern Mariana Islands convention, which drew just 471 participants.

This is problem #1. The GOP primary delegation process favors plurality winners and it favors candidates who can win in very low turnout environments. There is a massive variance between the minimum number of votes needed per delegate and the maximum number of votes needed per delegate. Some districts are extremely efficient and some are extremely inefficient places to win. The Republicans treat districts like the Senate treats states. The first rule change would be to scale the delegate award to some measure of Republican vote strength.

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The establishment is the kiddie table

Via Political Wire:


new Morning Consult poll finds Donald Trump with a huge national lead over his GOP rivals at 44%, followed by Ted Cruz at 17%, Ben Carson at 10%, Marco Rubio at 10%, Jeb Bush at 8% and John Kasich at 4%.

The consolidated establishment lane of “responsible” Republicans pull in 22%.  That is a faction less than the Cruz/Carson faction.  The Republican Establishment is the kiddie table in that party.

I am having a harder time seeing how Trump is not the nominee for the GOP as he controls the terms of debate, the media loves him, and plausible unified opponents can’t unify.  His non-Cruz/non-unadulterated grifter opponents are locked in a single shot, non-iterative game with a single winner takes all prize.  Coordinating so one of the opponents in this category is the proffered opponent leaves the withdrawing opponents only soft agreement enforcement mechanisms to get any promised goodies.  Throw in that there is personal loathing among some of the Establishment candidates , it makes a non-Cruz anti-Trump consolidation behind a single candidate improbable in the next week or two.

And even if there is a consolidation with universal support transfer, the anti-anti-Establishment non-obvious grifting wing of the GOP is a minority faction.

How does Trump not get the nomination?