All You Need To Know About Paul Ryan


…the speaker is torn between his personal feelings about the tape showing Donald Trump discussing grabbing women by the genitals and his desire to preserve the historic GOP majority in the House of Representatives.

My reaction:

A) Profile in Courage.


B) Put his picture in the dictionary next to “Party Before Country”

I have many dreams about this election. One that is very unlikely — but less so than a week ago — is that the GOP loses the House, and Ryan loses his seat.

A boy can dream, can’t he?

Image:Éduoard Manet, The Rabbit 1866.

ETA:  I’ll confess. This post was motivated in part by a desire to use that picture in association with today’s GOP.


Besides either pointing and laughing or cringing and looking at our fellow countrymen with abject fear and uncertainty, what is on the agenda today


My Gob is Smacked Past All Smackeration. Thanks, Rudy

Just a quicky here, as I can’t resist this:

Speaking in Youngstown, Ohio ahead of Donald Trump, Rudy Giuliani, who was the mayor of New York City on 9/11, declared that Islamic extremists hadn’t carried out any terror attacks on American soil before Barack Obama’s presidency.

“Under those 8 years, before Obama came along, we didn’t have any successful radical Islamic terrorist attack in the US,” Giuliani told the crowd. “They all started when Clinton and Obama came into office.”

Video here.

Just as a reminder.  That would be Rudy “Noun, Verb, 9/11” Giuliani.


This is beyond hateful.  This is, as Charles Pierce has often said, yet more evidence that the GOP has been consumed by prion disease.  It’s just…pitiable…




…Aw, hell. I got nuthin’.  You?

Image: Giovanni Battista Tiepolo, The Rage of Achilles1757.

Dumb idea of the week

And this is not even directly related to Trump.

my first response is to ask if Ryan Lizza guzzles anti-freeze for breakfast as this is breathtakingly stupid.

Let’s make a few assumptions that I think are verifiable within reality.

a) Hillary Clinton has in all projection systems been favored to win the White House at all points to varying degrees (except the 538 click-bait now-cast)
b) A Republican appointed or de facto appointed Supreme Court median judge produces significantly different policy and political outcomes than a median Supreme Court justice that represents a typical Democratic nominee.
c) The Clinton campaign is better run than the Trump campaign.

Now let’s make a few more slightly shakier assumptions.

d) The Democratic coalition has good reason to believe it is a dominant Presidential level coalition ( 5 out 6 most recent elections had Dem popular vote pluralities etc)
e) The Republican coalition is a maxed out coalition with significant headwinds due to higher death and lower replacement rates of their core voters compared to Democratic core voting blocks.
f) The Donald is a dumpster fire which excerbates E

In football analytics terms, Clinton is ahead and she can win with a good, productive 8 minute offense of low variance but efficient plays. There is little reason for the Clinton campaign to adopt high variance vertical shots down the field to score when she is already up 9 with a better quarterback and a better defense. Scoring point is nice but running time off the clock and winning field position works almost as well. Interceptions and fumbles would dramatically drop win probability compared to a counterfactual of boring productive plays.

Promising to nominate a typical Republican judge as the median SCOTUS vote in order to try to capture 2% to 5% of the core Republican vote is a high variance play for a Democratic nominee. It could be worth it if the nominee was down 9 points with three months left. But that is not the case. Promising to nominate a Kennedy clone or more likely a Roberts clone may or may not get any Republican votes as a Trump Administration would nominate at least a Roberts if not an Alito clone anyways while it would cause a lot of trouble on the left flank. That could be acceptable if the left flank was legitimately faced with a “this sucks but it is the only chance to avoid the true suckage of four years of Trump” choice but that is not the choice out there.

Therefore this is the stupidest thing I’ve read this week.

Gone, Baby, Gone

The DWS shit-show was getting pretty pathetic:

Democratic National Committee (DNC) Chairwoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz was repeatedly interrupted and booed Monday as she sought to speak to Florida’s convention delegation.

The Florida lawmaker, who will resign after the Democratic National Convention this week after leaked emails showed top members of the DNC working to boost Hillary Clinton‘s presidential primary bid, had to strain her voice to yell over the flurry of protestors who showed up to interrupt her speech.

“We need to make sure we move together in a unified way,” she said over shouts from the crowd.

As she spoke, people stood on chairs holding up signs that said “emails,” “No!” and “Thanks for the ‘help,’ Debbie.”

Others repeatedly shouted: “Shame.”


The Florida congresswoman was defiant, insisting delegates would see more of her.

“You will see me every day between now and Nov. 8 on the campaign trail, and we will lock arms and we will not stand down,” she said.
CLEVELAND, Ohio – Presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton named U.S. Rep. Marcia L. Fudge as the Permanent Chair of the 2016 Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia this week.
Democratic National Committee Chairwoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz will not be speaking or presiding over this week’s convention at all…
Jesus, what does it take for this tone-deaf fool to take a hint?  Anyone with an ounce of political skill would have seen the writing on the wall and stepped down, but not DWS.

The Jokes, They Write Themselves

There’s lots more serious stuff to blog about today (and everyday!), but this is too good not to use to chum the Balloon Juice lagoon:

Numerous members of the British parliament have complained that they have received multiple emails from the Trump campaign asking for a donation.


“Members of Parliament are being bombarded by electronic communications from Team Trump on behalf of somebody called Donald Trump,” Sir Roger Gale said on Tuesday, according to Politics Home. “Mr Speaker, I’m all in favour of free speech but I don’t see why colleagues on either side of the House should be subjected to intemperate spam.”

Sir Roger seemed to have trouble even deleting the Trump emails.

“Efforts to try to have these deleted have failed. I wonder if you’d be kind enough to intercede with the Digital Services Department to see if they may be blocked,” he lamented.

“Somebody called Donald Trump…”


Image: Peter de Hooch, Man Handing a Letter to a Woman in the Entrance Hall of a House1670.

Stung by the Bee

I’ll just lay this here:

Obnoxious and ignorant is no way to go through life, son.