Ask and You Shall Receive: Counter to Countering Terrorism Edition

Both John and Ann Laurie have touched on the domestic, US political response to Syrian refugees in the wake of Friday’s attacks in Paris. And in the article John cites there is a reference to the suspicion that the Syrian passports found with the attackers were forged/fake. That was actually confirmed yesterday. And the Egyptian passport found at the scene belonged to one of the victims, an Egyptian national, who was attending the match at the Stade National. It has also been suggested that part of the motivation for the attacks, specifically for the targeting, was that it would increase suspicion of refugees, as well as push public opinion and political elites to reject Syrian refugees.

From a strategic viewpoint, this makes perfect sense for ISIS. Part of their argument is that only Muslims who accept tawheed, the radical unity of the Deity, are really Muslims and the only place one can really be a Muslim is one ruled by Muslims who accept tawheed (these Muslims are called muwaheedun) for those who accept tawheed. Moreover, ISIS’s recruiting argument to support this doctrinal/theological/ideological contention is that true Muslims are not welcome and not safe anywhere else. By casting suspicion on Muslim refugees, whether they are from Syria or other states, and enflaming public and political passions against accepting refugees in specific and Muslims in general, they are able to create a self fulfilling prophecy. What ISIS wants is for the US and other states to clamp down on admitting refugees. And they want threats against and actual violence against Muslim citizens of these states to increase. A self fulfilling/self sustaining effort.

But only if we actually play into ISIS’s hands. ISIS’s strategy can only be successful if we give them what they want. They do not have the ways and means to achieve their ends – they need us to provide them for them! This was also the case with bin Laden. If you go back and look at bin Laden’s stated goals in his Letter to America, you’ll see a list of what he wanted to achieve. Click over, read or reread them, and see just how many of his goals were achieved. And then ask yourself how many were only achievable if we overreacted and provided the ways and means for him to achieve his ends. Terrorism, whether its ISIS or al Qaeda or some group not yet in existence, is not an existential threat for western states and societies. The reactions and responses that these groups’ actions try to evoke through the use of terrorism in western states and societies is, however, a potential existential threat. Combatting terrorism can only be successful if it is done on our terms, not those set by and beneficial to the terrorists themselves.

* The featured image are internally displaced Iraqi children between Jisr Diyala and Abu Thayla, Mada’in Qada, Iraq. I took this picture, as well as several others in the summer of 2008. We had stopped to provide their parents with some humanitarian assistance supplies: basic dry staples and sundries and clothes and some toys for the children. They had fled from north of Baghdad and were squatting in a building at an industrial site.

Very Early AM Open Thread

Since its been a few hours since the last post, and I’m sure the insomniacs and night owls could use it, here’s a fresh thread to follow up on the events in Paris or anything else you wish to remark on.

Paris Attack Updates: Updated with France 24 Live Feed; Updated Again and Again

Since Betty C’s thread is a few hours old, here’s a front page update on the attacks in Paris. The BBC is reporting that there was an explosion near the Stade de France, though it is unclear if this was a suicide attack or a more conventional bombing. The Beeb is also reporting fifteen killed near the Bataclan Arts Center and up to sixty people being held hostage there. Finally, they’re reporting that France has closed its borders!

I’m sure we’ll all be updating each other as the night and the weekend goes on, but we should all keep two important points in mind: 1) the reporting is going to change several times as new information becomes available, so what seems to be an accurate now may not be in a few hours. And 2) terrorism, no matter how repugnant or terrible, is a very low probability event. Terrorists real targets aren’t the immediate victims, they are the rest of us; their intention is to scare us into taking actions we would never ordinarily do.

Finally, all of our thoughts and prayers are with the people of France.

Update: Anoniminous provided the link to France 24’s live feed. So no one has to go looking for it, the link is here:

France 24 Live Feed

Update 2: France 24 just reported that the law enforcement response at the Bataclan is complete and two of the hostage takers are dead.

Update 3: In comments Robert Waldman posted the following, which I thought was important enough to be seen as part of the actual post on the front page:

“Anyone stranded in Paris reading Balloon Juice on a smart phone might be interested in the twitter hastag #PorteOuverte (open door). It is being used by people offering shelter to the stranded and by stranded people seeking shelter. Parisians are hosting stranded strangers who don’t think they can safely return to their homes or hotels.

The standard suggestion is to communicate location only privately with direct messages in case there are terrorists on twitter.”

Thanks Robert!



A Dustbowl Where a Breadbasket Should Be


That big blue space west of the City of Baghdad, Mada’in Qada, was where I was deployed in Iraq. It is part of the agricultural belt that rings Baghdad. We also had an assumed risk are south of Mada’in in Wassit Province and, for about six to eight weeks, we had southern Diyala Province, which is just north of Mada’in. Eventually my Brigade Combat Team (BCT) also picked up Mahmoudiya Qada. This gave the Army’s non-modular, legacy brigade  the entire southwestern, southern, and eastern belt/approaches to Baghdad. That’s a lot of territory for 4,500 people to cover. Since this is going to be a photo/picture heavy post, I’m going to put most of it under the fold in order to not swamp the front page.

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Source material

Chris, in a comment to my post on Syria, Strategy, and Policy, asked me about what I look at for source material. While both Cervantes and BobS weighed in with some good recommendations, I promised I’d put something up for Chris yesterday. This has slipped to today. I’m going to break this into three parts and actually start with the final third.

A lot of my research and analytical work is done using open source resources. When I do this type of work I’m basically relying on targeted key word searches that lead me to source material. I then vet that source material in several ways. First, I try to vet the author and the outlet. So if its on a blog or some other form of commentary site, I’m looking to see if I can identify the author and determine if they actually know anything about what they’re talking about and what, if any, biases I can determine. I’m also looking for links to related material at every source I’m looking at. For two reasons: 1) as documentation/citation for what I’m reading and 2) to widen my source material pool as I’m working my way through the subject search. I’m also constantly bookmarking and saving links to potential material that I might possibly need in the future. So that’s a portion of how I go about looking for, finding, and vetting source material. I go where the search takes me, vet continuously, and work the links in the sources I’m finding. The kind of work I do requires me to basically live in information overload, so I do.

So now back to the first third. For news sources, as in straight news reporting and not commentary, I largely avoid US news media. Rather than CNN or FOX or ABC or etc, I prefer the BBC, al Jazeera English, Agency France Press, the Guardian. I will use the AP and Reuters wires, as well as the Christian Science Monitor and McClatchy. For long form reporting I’ve found that the best stuff seems to be at Harpers, Vanity Fair, Rolling Stone, Pro Publica, the New Yorker, and likely several others I’m forgetting. Overall, however, I tend to avoid initial straight news reporting from the US news media. Some of this goes out the window when I doing open source research and analysis. So if, while doing that, the best source is CNN or Time, I’ll use it. So that’s an important caveat.

In the middle third I understood Chris to be asking about material pertaining to the Middle East. I have several go to sites that I like to start with depending on the issue. These include Juan Cole’s Informed Comment (full disclosure: I’ve guest written a couple of posts for Professor Cole, specifically back in 2008 and 2009 shortly after I got back from Iraq) and COL Lang’s Sic Semper Tyrannis (full disclosure for those not paying attention: I used to be a front pager there and COL Lang helped train me). One of my favorite sites regarding the Middle East is Jadaliyya. Great site, interesting and informative material across a variety of topics. I also like to use the Middle East Monitor and for Israel-Palestinian specific issues +927 Magazine. I’ve also used the National AE, as well as Haaretz. A great site, that I actually used a lot when deployed to Iraq to get a good overview, is Musings on Iraq. The Al Monitor is very useful as they provide good translations of reports from Middle Eastern news sources. There are other sources that I use, but I don’t think we need to belabor this.

And that, as they say, is that. I know I promised to do something about the Levantine drought and I’ll try to get that up tomorrow. Everyone have a great night! Or evening for those of you in Mountain, Pacific, or points farther west.