I’m going to be offline most of tomorrow – I’m going to be doing heavy lifting for the Afghan refugee resettlement folks. Literally: they’ve got a bunch of heavy boxes filled with donated goods that have to be moved so volunteers can sort the items for distribution. Since picking up and putting down heavy objects …
Silverman on Security
The War for Ukraine Update 4: Putin Escalates
by Adam L Silverman| 527 Comments
This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Military, Open Threads, Saudi Arabia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine
In last night’s update I wrote: Here’s where things are going to get dicey. As the economic responses move from sanctioning specific business and individuals to removing most of Russia’s banking system from SWIFT and going after the wealth – in dollars, pounds, euros, etc; real estate and land; yachts; jets; professional sports franchises; etc …
The War for Ukraine Update 4: Putin EscalatesPost + Comments (527)
Putin: "Western countries aren't only taking unfriendly economic actions against our country, but leaders of major Nato countries are making aggressive statements about our country. So I order to move Russia's deterrence forces to a special regime of duty." pic.twitter.com/AC1yHncqZc
— max seddon (@maxseddon) February 27, 2022
From one of the top experts on Russia's nuclear deterrent https://t.co/bOQ8p8wPgy
— max seddon (@maxseddon) February 27, 2022
First off, that DOD statement I referenced two days ago about DOD’s assessment that there had been no change to Russia’s nuclear posture – that statement is no longer operative.
Here’s a nice long detailed thread from James Acton of the Carnegie Endowment’s Nuclear Policy Program.
<THREAD>What does raising the alert level of Russian nuclear forces entail?
Russian nuclear forces can be divided into strategic (which can reach the US) and nonstrategic (which can't.) I'm looking to see whether strategic forces, nonstrategic forces, or both are alerted. (1/n) https://t.co/Mx54KMoSv1
— (((James Acton))) (@james_acton32) February 27, 2022
The technical parts are good. The national strategic policy portions – coming up with a way for Putin to deescalate by giving him things he wants or providing him inducements – are not. Putin has played this card for two reasons.
The first is domestic. Go back to Max Seddon’s translation of Putin’s announcement (emphasis mine):
Western countries aren’t only taking unfriendly economic actions against our country, but leaders of major Nato countries are making aggressive statements about our country. So I order to move Russia’s deterrence forces to a special regime of duty.
Putin is attempting to flip the script here as the war continues to go badly for him in its initial phases and the economic measures being implemented begin to bite everyday Russians in a way he can’t shield them from. Russia isn’t waging war in Ukraine, for Ukraine, by reinvading Ukraine. No, no, no my friends! Russia is being attacked by NATO.
This is what Putin is trying to head off:
Central Moscow flooded with riot police. Cutting protests off before they can begin. pic.twitter.com/sHXFmk8V5Y
— James Longman (@JamesAALongman) February 27, 2022
Russia's Prosecutor General threatens citizens: "Assistance to a foreign state during the period of a special operation will be regarded as treason to the Motherland."
State TV host Olga Skabeeva spreads this threat.
Putin's well-oiled war machine includes propagandists. pic.twitter.com/MVououqzYR
— Julia Davis (@JuliaDavisNews) February 27, 2022
Protesters in Minsk have encircled the building of the General Staff of the Defence Ministry of Belarus and are chanting "Glory to Ukraine!" pic.twitter.com/caj03prp7N
— Tadeusz Giczan ?? (@TadeuszGiczan) February 27, 2022
Because if Putin can’t get those Russians who are displeased and protesting back in line and keep the rest of the Russian people in line and he can’t get the US and our EU and non-EU allies to back off the economic measures targeting him, the oligarchs, and the Russian people, as well as doing military resupply to Ukraine, more of this is going to happen:
⚡️Russian oligarch Deripaska: 'We need peace."
In his Telegram channel, industrial tycoon Oleg Deripaska wrote that peace talks between Russia and Ukraine must begin “as soon as possible!”
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) February 27, 2022
The truth is that Russian forces are targeting NATO civilian targets:
Source:https://t.co/zKiMqrmf8y
— Alex Kokcharov (@AlexKokcharov) February 25, 2022
One of the other civilian ships that Russia has attacked in the Black Sea was flying a Turkish flag. So that’s attacks on two NATO members shipping in the past two days.
Putin is also doing this because he needs to try to unsettle Ukrainians and their leadership as well as the Americans, Europeans, and everyone else. Putin made this announcement shortly after the announcement that Russia had called for unconditional peace talks, which Ukraine agreed to provided they would be held on the Ukrainian-Belarusian border. The Ukrainians took the escalatory remarks in stride.
⚡️️Zelensky doesn't believe in the positive outcome of the negotiations with Russia.
"But let them try, so that no citizen of Ukraine doubts that I, as president, tried to stop the war when there was still a chance, however small," he said in a video address.
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) February 27, 2022
But others have decided that the time for business as usual is over. The Japanese joined the new, harsher economic measures shortly before Putin’s speech:
⚡️Japan joins Western allies to eject selected Russian banks from SWIFT.
Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said on Feb. 27 that Japan will put sanctions on Russia’s dictator Vladimir Putin and extend $100 million in emergency humanitarian aid to Ukraine.
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) February 27, 2022
This is the statement of German Chancellor Scholtz less than 1/2 an hour after Putin’s announcement of escalation:
We must put a stop to warmongers like Putin. That requires strength of our own. We want a strong, modern Bundeswehr and we will spend over 2% of our economic output on ensuring it is suitably equipped.
Yes, we fully intend to secure our freedom and our prosperity!— Bundeskanzler Olaf Scholz (@Bundeskanzler) February 27, 2022
Here’s a full thread tweeting out Chancellor Scholz’s remarks in English.
And the EU has now closed its airspace to Russian air traffic including the private jets belonging to the oligarchs.
⚡️EU shuts its airspace to all Russian-owned, Russian-registered, or Russian-controlled aircraft, President of the EU Commission Ursula von der Leyen said on Twitter.
“Including the private jets of oligarchs,” she wrote.
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) February 27, 2022
I’m in complete agreement with Rick Wilson’s take. I’ve been working Russia’s hybrid warfare or active measures or political warfare or whatever your preferred term is since JAN 2014. I’ve got publications in two different professional (NOT academic) journals on the topic working it from my specialty areas of low intensity warfare and this point from Wilson in tweet #8 is absolutely correct:
8/ He was winning the game when he used the first-world capacity of the Russian state — intelligence, propaganda, financial subversion, political manipulation (eg US 2016 and Brexit, to name just two) — because Russia is the top of those games.
The rest? Nah.
— Rick Wilson (@TheRickWilson) February 27, 2022
This reinvasion of Ukraine was the worst mistake Putin could make. As long as he was seeing massive returns of his political warfare campaigns agains the US, the EU, NATO, and other states, which were costing him pennies on the dollar, combined with low intensity warfare carried out by Spetznaz and Wagner mercenary forces, he looked strategically strong and tactically effective. And no one, apparently including him, had any idea just how bad and ineffective the rebuilt Russian military really is. Until now…
And Tom Nichols, who is an actual Russian subject matter expert is also correct:
I will let you know. For now, this is meant for a domestic audience in Russia as much as for anyone else. https://t.co/gwaIo9u3gR
— Tom Nichols (@RadioFreeTom) February 27, 2022
If things like this in Ukraine weren’t happening to Russian forces, then Putin would not be escalating/threatening escalation:
AaAAAaAAaAAaaaaaaaaAAAAAAA!!!!
These two Russian idiots in Shevchenkove, Kharkiv oblast, had their vehicle sputtered out.
Guess what they did?
They came to a local Ukrainian police station.
And asked if they could have some fuel. pic.twitter.com/HmaUNORQL3— Illia Ponomarenko (@IAPonomarenko) February 27, 2022
Kharkiv authorities: “Dozens” of demoralized Russian soldiers surrender in the city pic.twitter.com/m9KJGOkuyF
— Illia Ponomarenko (@IAPonomarenko) February 27, 2022
Right now the US, the EU, our NATO partners, and our non-EU and non-NATO partners need to continue doing what they’re doing. Increasing the economic pain. Resupplying the Ukrainians. Updating the plans, sequels, and contingency plans for when and under what conditions NATO may have to actually enter the war*. What does not and should not be done is providing Putin with any enticements or rewards for his actions today. Doing that will only reinforce his belief, and teach everyone else, that as long as one has a nuclear arsenal of sufficient size at one’s disposal that one can hold the world hostage to get what one wants. That cannot be allowed to happen.
Open thread.
* I expect that if the attacks on shipping keep up, the initial entry will be to protect the shipping.
The War For Ukraine Update 3: Dawn Breaks On the Fourth Day As the Defenders Hold
by Adam L Silverman| 105 Comments
This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine
(I do not remember where I found this) As I write this the first light of dawn is beginning to break over Ukraine and the fourth day of the war caused by Russia’s reinvasion of Ukraine begins. By the time I hit post day four of the war for Ukraine will be fully underway. As …
In extremely good news:
Magomed Tushayev, one of Ramzan Kadyrov’s top warlords, has been killed in action in Hostomel.
??Ukraine’s elite Alpha Group is reportedly fighting Chechens in the airfield. pic.twitter.com/bPHgBPK8sL— Illia Ponomarenko (@IAPonomarenko) February 26, 2022
There are reports that the Ukrainians took out the entire convoy of Chechen fighters known as Kadyrovites named for the brutal warlord who runs Chechnya on behalf of Putin.
Also, Germany finally removed the sticks from their tuchases and reinserted their spines authorizing the transfer of German manufactured weaponry to Ukraine.
Germany has authorized the Netherlands to send Ukraine 400 rocket-propelled grenade launchers to aid in the fight against Russian invaders, according to two EU officials — marking an abrupt shift in Berlin’s military policy amid pressure from EU and NATO allies.
The reversal could mean a rapid increase in European military assistance for Ukraine, as large portions of the Continent’s weapons and ammunition are at least in part German-manufactured, giving Berlin legal control over their transfer. Yet Berlin’s changing stance does not necessarily mean all requests for arms shipments will be approved, as each case is decided individually.
Poland started sending ammunition by land, while Estonia and Latvia on Friday said they were beginning to truck fuel, Javelin anti-armor weapons and medical supplies to the Ukraine border for hand-off to Ukrainian forces. Elsewhere, the Czech Republic said it would send guns and ammunition, and Slovakia said it would send ammunition, diesel and kerosene.
On Saturday, more countries started chipping in.
The Netherlands said it will send 200 Stinger anti-aircraft defense systems to Ukraine — often the top-requested type of military aid among Ukrainian soldiers and officials (apart from Western powers sending their own planes and forces to fight with Ukraine). And Belgium announced it would supply Ukraine with 2,000 machine guns and 3,800 tonnes of fuel.
Across the Atlantic, the United States on Saturday also upped its ongoing military assistance to Ukraine, authorizing up to $350 million to help bolster Ukraine’s defenses, funding that will include “further lethal defensive assistance.”
Here’s where things are going to get dicey. As the economic responses move from sanctioning specific business and individuals to removing most of Russia’s banking system from SWIFT and going after the wealth – in dollars, pounds, euros, etc; real estate and land; yachts; jets; professional sports franchises; etc – of Putin, his key aides and agents, and the rest of the oligarchs enabling him, as well as going after the mistresses, girlfriends, and children of Putin and his cronies, pressure is going to build. Specifically the pressure by the oligarchs and other sycophants and cronies to protect themselves. Additionally, the increase in the flow of weapons to rearm Ukraine to allow it to withstand the Russian reinvasion is also going to increase pressure on and around Putin.
The war is not going well for the Russians. This was not the speed run to Kyiv to capture and kill as much of the Ukrainian national government and as much of the government of the oblasts as possible and replace them with easily controlled trusted agents. Every day that Ukraine holds out increases the pressure. And that pressure is going to get relieved in two ways. The first is that Putin will up his operational tempo. What he threw at the Ukrainians overnight was much more than he’d ordered be done over the previous two nights. And as day 4 turns into night 5 of the war what he orders will be more than what he threw at the Ukrainians today. CNN reported earlier that its reporting team had eyes on a thermobaric missile launcher just south of Belgorod, Russia near Ukraine. If things continue to go badly, I expect we’ll unfortunately see this type of weapon system deployed. The second way the pressure is going to get relieved is that Putin will begin to go after the US and our EU and NATO allies in ways that he has not yet done so. He will lash out, most likely through increased cyber attacks first, in an attempt to inflict pain to stop, or at least slow down, the resupply of the Ukrainian military.
Putin has seriously miscalculated with this reinvasion. He misunderstood the resistance his forces would face. For whatever reason he seriously misunderstood the competency of the military he’s spent over a decade rebuilding and modernizing. And he misunderstood how the US and its EU and NATO allies, as well as the vast majority of the world, would respond. The other night, while texting with TaMara, she asked what I thought was up with Putin. I replied that:
I think Putin has nursed this grievance, that the fall of the Soviet Union and everything bad that has happened to Russia since the fall of the Soviet Union, is the US’s fault. That the US, working through its lackeys in the EU and NATO, has gone out of its way to damage and harm and keep Russia down. And that he’s nursed this grievance day in and day out every day since the ate 1980s and it has consumed him. COVID has made this worse as he’s isolated himself in fear of catching the virus. As a result in his loneliness and isolation, his grievance has eaten away at him like, to use Tolkien as a metaphor, the one ring ate away Smeagol and left nothing but Gollum. That now all he has left is that grievance and the belief that he could set it all right, just as at the end all Gollum had was the desire for the ring and the belief that he could once again possess his precious.
This morning I read an excellent and thought provoking essay by Max Seddon in The Financial Times that makes a similar point:
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https://www.ft.com/content/c039db89-7201-4875-b31f-b41a511496f1Already a distant figure before the pandemic, the lengths the former KGB officer takes to avoid coronavirus have limited his human contact. Western visitors are forced to sit around a comically huge table. Allies toast champagne from opposite ends of a massive carpet. Even Putin’s closest advisers are rarely allowed to come within 10 feet without weeks of quarantine and testing. People who have known him for decades say this has deepened a pent-up resentment of the west and a fixation on Russia’s shared history with Ukraine — making him more aggressive and unpredictable than ever. “He’s even more isolated than Stalin,” says Gleb Pavlovsky, a former adviser. “In the last years of his life, Stalin didn’t come to the Kremlin and lived in his dacha, but the politburo came to see him and they talked and drank. Putin doesn’t have that. He’s as isolated as he can be. And in that situation rational issues become irrational.”
Things are going to get worse now before they get better. I don’t think it will belong before President Biden and his allies are faced with a decision that I don’t think they want to make: at what point do they enter the war on behalf of Ukraine. You all know my views on this so I won’t repeat them again, but that decision point is approaching. Whether it is in days or weeks I don’t know. At some point, however, the calculus has to change to one that recognizes our ability to end the suffering being visiting upon the Ukrainian people because we have the capabilities to end this war in under a day.
I’ll leave you all with two items, one serious and one more whimsical, about Ukrainian President Zelenskyy:
Once upon a time, four sons were born to Jewish Ukrainian parents. Three sons were murdered by the Nazis. One son survived.
The survivor’s grandson is now an international hero fearlessly confronting his country’s invaders. He is Volodymyr #Zelensky, President of #Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/Evb3ePMso3— Steven Goldstein (@StvenGoldstein) February 26, 2022
so apparently Zelenskyy won the Ukrainian version of Dancing with the Stars in 2006 and the tape is even better than whatever you're imagining pic.twitter.com/L1gnKD2ISr
— Kat Abu (@abughazalehkat) February 27, 2022
here's the full three minute video. (I used a vpn to find it — not sure if it's accessible without one)https://t.co/vkXwJ63HSA
— Kat Abu (@abughazalehkat) February 27, 2022
Open thread!
War for Ukraine Update 3: Dawn Has Broken Over Kyiv & Kyiv’s Defenses Have Held Through the Night
by Adam L Silverman| 186 Comments
This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine
By the time I hit publish on this quick update it will be 6:40 AM local time in Kyiv. For now, at least, its defenses and defenders still stand! ⚡️President Volodymyr Zelensky is personally heading the defense of Kyiv. He is in the capital, according to state-run Dom TV channel. — The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) …
War For Ukraine: Update 2
by Adam L Silverman| 271 Comments
This post is in: America, Foreign Affairs, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine
(Found at this link) Just a brief house keeping note at top. If I keep doing these updates, I’m going to title them War for Ukraine from here on out with the update # after the colon. I am not going to retitle the first one I did two nights ago. About an hour ago …
War For Ukraine: Update 2Post + Comments (271)
The positive signs I’m seeing are:
- The Ukrainians appear to be very motivated, for obvious reasons.
- Zelenskyy has risen to the occasion. As have the Klitschko brothers and other Ukrainian leaders, elites, and notables.
- The Ukrainian military is performing well so far.
- The Snake Island defenders and the retaking of the airport outside of Kyiv are going to be huge for military and civilian morale.
- As is the MiG 29 pilot or pilots flying sorties over Kyiv and now known as The Ghost of Kyiv.
- As of now, based on numbers from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, the Ukrainians are inflicting almost 8 killed in action (KIA) on the Russians for every Ukrainian KIA. This too will be a big morale booster for the Ukrainians.
- Russian troops, including at least one whole unit, are surrendering. Again a major morale booster.
My concerns:
- Putin has committed only half of his forces so far. He still has plenty of reserves to throw at Ukraine.
- He has also been much more restrained than expected in use of AirPower, his missiles, and cyber warfare.
- I would very much like to know why he has held back.
I want to build out the killed in action line of analysis a bit. After the first day of fighting, the reporting was that the Ukrainians had killed 800 Russian Soldiers while suffering only 137 KIAs. By last night eastern time, the reporting was that the Ukrainians had killed an additional 2,000 Russian Soldiers bringing the total to 2,800. I have not seen an update to the Ukrainian KIA totals after the second day. I’ve also seen the numbers as 400 Russian KIA after the first day of fighting. Even if the lower number is the accurate one, and I don’t think it is, this would be 4 Russian Soldiers killed for just over every one Ukrainian Soldier killed. And while the Russians definitely have more Soldiers massed on Ukraine’s borders to throw at the Ukrainians, this is still a huge imbalance in favor of the Ukrainians. The reason I think the higher number may be more accurate is that the Russian Health Ministry has issued a nation wide mobilization of Russian doctors, nurses, and other medical person for a “mass medical emergency” event in Russia, but the orders make it clear this will be official travel. I think that this reporting is a good indicator that the Russian casualty numbers that Ukraine’s MOD is putting out are pretty close to accurate. And that Putin never expected this type of resistance from the Ukrainians or for it to be this effective. Comparative context here is important. The US lost 4,431 personnel in Iraq as of 19 JUL 2021. It is being reported that the Russians have lost almost 2/3rds of that in two days! Even if the number is half what is being reported, that is still an amazing number of KIAs in just two days.
Given the time difference, another long sleepless night has fallen on Ukraine. While we wait for more news of Ukraine’s defense, here’s some of what is giving inspiration to the Ukrainians defending their homes right now.
The Snake Island Defenders:
The Ukrainian defenders of Snake Island died as heroes ? #StandWithUkraine pic.twitter.com/b114AiUwoh https://t.co/TnigwvlNrv
— Wu-Tang Is For The Children (@WUTangKids) February 25, 2022
The Ghost of Kyiv:
#Kyiv #Ukraine pic.twitter.com/wSMpbhS7cY
— Aldin ?? (@aldin_ww) February 24, 2022
#Kyiv pic.twitter.com/gcqAqq1t4T
— Aldin ?? (@aldin_ww) February 24, 2022
One Grandma that has no fucks left to give!
Російські окупаційні війська зайшли в місто Геніческ.⁰Відео спілкування з російським загарбником розмістила на своїй сторінці в соцмережі ФБ місцева мешканка.⁰На відео російський військовий не відповідає на питання,яка мета його перебування в місті. ⁰Відео з’явилось о 13:28. pic.twitter.com/Lp95AJu1Tk
— НепоганаТетяна (@ian_tanya) February 24, 2022
Transcript of the Ukrainian grandmother telling a Russian soldier to put sunflower seeds in his pocket, so when he dies on their land sunflowers will grow where he fell. She’s wonderful. pic.twitter.com/LC25fOfZ6h
— Jacquie Stephens ? (@Jazmo0712) February 25, 2022
Finally, this was tweeted out yesterday by a Canadian diplomat:
The biggest test in @NATO's history is at hand.
Putin is the aggressor our alliance was created to defend against.
He is engaged in a pivotal war of conquest.
The fight to defend Euro-Atlantic values is happening right now, in Ukraine.#ArmUkraine #shelteroursky #NFZ
— Chris Alexander (@calxandr) February 25, 2022
If you believe this is a fight to defend Euro-Atlantic values, then fight. I get that President Biden has to run the traps here at home given the domestic political situation, as well as the ones with our EU allies and partners because some of them seem to have gotten some selective amnesia over the past 70 years. So this isn’t a complaint about what the administration is or is not doing because I understand the process, but Putin has made it clear that this is step 1. If he succeeds, he’ll consolidate, take time to rebuild, then its the Baltics. Then try to repeat the cycle in Poland. Then try to repeat the cycle again in the Caucasus.
Right now we have someone who is willing to be the tip of the spear partner in this fight. The Ukrainians are dug in, holding beyond anything I think anyone could’ve imagined on Monday. Their president is begging us, daring us, shaming us to commit. The big ask is denial of flight over Ukraine to Russian military air assets. That’s it. Fine, we can’t use NATO assets because of Putin’s ambiguity and threats. We can’t use the Finns or the Swedes for the same reason. I get it. What the fuck are the Israelis and the Jordanians doing this week? You can’t tell me King Abdullah wouldn’t put on his flight suit for this. If we can’t get a single non-NATO, non-EU partner to actually run interference for us on this, providing the necessary fig leaf, we need a complete rethink of our entire defense alliance concept.
For those worried about Putin’s ambiguous threats, the DOD has determined it’s a bluff.
A shred of good news. Asked about Putin seemingly alluding to the threat of nuclear force, a senior U.S. defense official says this:
"I want to caveat this by saying we can't know perfect detail about their strategic posture. But we don't see an increased threat in that regard."
— Dan Lamothe (@DanLamothe) February 24, 2022
If we have reasonably concluded it is a bluff then we need to rise to the occasion the way the Ukrainians are. We find some way to deny flight. We find a way to hit the damn hypersonics we believe Putin put in Kaliningrad as a threat to our EU allies’ capitols to freeze our decision making to remove that threat. But we don’t sit around, claim that NATO is the strongest military alliance in history, while all NATO can do is hold meetings while its member states impose sanctions that may or may not be effective. If Putin’s invasion of Ukraine is the threat that everyone is saying it is, then we must rise to meet it. Right now the most unlikely of national leaders, President Zelenskyy is doing so. Right now the Ukrainian military and Ukrainian citizens are doing so. Maybe, just maybe we and our NATO and EU allies should do so ourselves.
Open thread!
Ukraine Update
by Adam L Silverman| 206 Comments
This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine
Apparently someone asked for an Ukraine update. The NOTAMs (Notice to Airmen) declaring a no fly zone for civilian aviation over eastern Ukraine went up about five hours ago. NOTAMS over the entirety of the eastern border of Ukraine. https://t.co/FBmgJTggya — Oliver Alexander (@OAlexanderDK) February 23, 2022 This indicates that Russia is intending to do …
Breaking: Putin Has Informed Macron and Scholz That He Will Recognize the Donetsk and Luhansk Republics
by Adam L Silverman| 296 Comments
This post is in: America, Foreign Affairs, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine
For those who have been patting themselves on the back that diplomacy was working so a military buildup for both deterrence and, if the worst should happen, response was not needed, well your diplomacy just failed! Putin is expected to make an address to the Russian nation any minute now. Scheduled for 9pm Moscow time …
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