Here’s the latest updates I’ve seen regarding the situation in Mariupol:
⚡️ Azov: 'bombs falling every 10 minutes' in Mariupol.
Azov regiment Captain Svyatoslav Palamar told CNN that the besieged port city continues to suffer heavy bombardment.
On March 21, Ukraine rejected the Russian deadline for Mariupol authorities to surrender.
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) March 21, 2022
⚡️Mariupol city council said that two families evacuating by cars from the besieged city were shot at by the Russian forces.
At least two children have been wounded and are in serious condition. Besides the cars, 20 buses with people left the city on March 21.
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) March 21, 2022
I’ve been checking pretty constantly all day and that’s about all that’s being reported.
Earlier today President Zelenskyy did an interview with Suspilne, which is a Ukrainian public broadcaster. Here is a partial English transcript of the interview:
Quote: “I explained to all negotiating groups: when you talk about all these changes – and they could be historic – we will eventually come to a referendum. The people will have to speak and respond to certain formats of compromises.
The shape of these compromises will be determined by our conversation, and the understanding reached between Ukraine and Russia. In any case, I am ready to go wherever the negotiations take me, as long as I am going there with our people”
Details: Zelenskyy noted that Ukraine has not been accepted into NATO “because they are afraid of Russia.”
“And we need to calm down and say – ‘Okay, what about other security guarantees?’ There are NATO countries that wish to be security guarantors, those who, unfortunately, cannot provide us with 100% membership to the Alliance, but are ready to do everything that the Alliance would have to do if we were members of the Alliance. And I think this is a fair compromise,” he added.
According to Zelenskyy, the issue of security guarantees will include constitutional and legislative changes to Ukraine.
Once again, I don’t think this is Zelenskyy dangling an off ramp to Putin to allow him to exit the war and save face. I think this is a reflection of Zelenskyy’s view of NATO and its utility in regard to Ukraine.
German foreign affairs analyst Ulrich Speck explains why Putin’s reinvasion is not about NATO:
- “Realists” still fail to understand that for Putin, this war is not about Nato per se but about the sovereignty and independence of Ukraine. A successful democratic Ukraine that is connected with the West is unacceptable for him, he wages this war to force Ukraine into submission
- Putin’s problem with Nato is that Nato membership puts countries he thinks Russia has the right to control out of his reach — not that Nato is threatening Russia. That’s a propaganda narrative which never fails to fall on fertile ground in the West.
- That’s why this war will not end if Ukraine declares neutrality and the West tells Russia that Ukraine won’t enter Nato. That’s not the point of Putin’s war.
- The point is Ukraine’s sovereignty and independence.
- Any peace agreement, if it’s there to last, will have to find a way to protect Ukraine against Russia in the future — make Russia respect Ukraine’s borders.
- This can be done either by Ukraine itself or by others, or by a mix of both.
- The problem is that those who could protect Ukraine against Russia don’t want to take the risk to enter into conflict with Russia over Ukraine.
- In the ongoing negotiations, Ukraine calls for security guarantees namely by the permanent members of the UN security council plus Germany and Turkey.
- Given their unwillingness in the past, it seems unlikely that they will agree.
- But maybe there can be a temporary arrangement: a window of opportunity during which the West can help Ukraine to build an effective capability to deter Russia in the future.
Much more after the jump.