Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Trump is going to draw a dick on that dog with a sharpie, isn’t he?

Dinky Hocker shoots smack!

I thought we were promised Infrastructure Week.

I did not have this on my fuck 2020 bingo card.

We are aware of all internet traditions.

Saul Alinsky is my co-pilot.

We have all the best words.

It’s not even safe to go out and pick up 2 days worth of poop anymore.

It’s always darkest before the other shoe drops.

I see no possible difficulties whatsoever with this fool-proof plan.

Lighten up, Francis.

Tick tock motherfuckers! Tick fucking tock!

Is it irresponsible to speculate? It is irresponsible not to.

… makes me wish i had hoarded more linguine

Fuck if i know. i just get yelled at when i try it.

Shelter in place is one thing. Shelter in pants is quite another.

Shock troops for the Unitarian Jihad.

You are either for trump or for democracy. Pick one.

Perhaps you mistook them for somebody who gives a damn – Nancy Pelosi

The math demands it!

I’d try pessimism, but it probably wouldn’t work.

This is a big f—–g deal.

Mission Accomplished!

Gastritis broke my calculator.

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Veteran’s Day 2020: A Long Overdue Honor

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Yesterday the US Senate passed legislation providing a statutory exemption to the time limit for awarding the Medal of Honor. This exemption is for one very specific soldier: Sergeant 1st Class (SFC) Alwyn Cashe.

From The Washington Post:

The Senate passed legislation on Tuesday that clears the way for President Trump to award the nation’s highest award for valor in combat to Army Sgt. 1st Class Alwyn Cashe, who repeatedly entered a burning vehicle in Iraq to save six fellow soldiers and an interpreter from harm and died a few weeks later.

The legislation, passed by unanimous consent, waives the legal requirement that the Medal of Honor be awarded within five years of a service member’s acts of valor. Cashe has long been considered one of the war’s great American heroes and would be the first African American to receive the award for actions in Iraq or Afghanistan. Former defense secretary Mark T. Esper supported the move in a letter to Congress in August after years of deliberations within the Army.

The Senate bill was introduced on a bipartisan basis following the approval of similar legislation in the House last week. In both cases, lawmakers said they wanted to move quickly.

The approval of the Cashe legislation in both chambers leaves Trump’s approval as the only hurdle to Cashe receiving the award. The president has not commented on the case, but Cashe is often cited within conservative circles as worthy of the award. A senior White House official, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss the open case, said before the legislation’s passage in the Senate that Trump would be supportive.

Cashe, 35, of Oviedo, Fla., was deployed to Samarra, Iraq, with the 3rd Infantry Division when the armored Bradley Fighting Vehicle he was in rolled over an improvised explosive device on Oct. 17, 2005. He was slightly injured by the explosion and drenched fuel, and realized the vehicle’s fuel cell had erupted and the vehicle had burst into flames.

Cashe made numerous trips into the vehicle to recover fellow soldiers, suffering burns in the process. He died about three weeks later on Nov. 5 at Brooke Army Medical Center in San Antonio, which is known for its unit treating burns suffered in combat.

Cashe was initially approved for the Silver Star, the nation’s third-highest award for valor in combat. His commanding officer, then-Lt. Col. Gary Brito, later said that he did not initially have a full understanding for what Cashe did and has sought an upgrade for years. Brito is now a three-star general and the Army’s deputy chief of staff for personnel.

“Without regard for his personal safety, Sergeant First Class Cashe rushed to the back of the vehicle, reaching into the hot flames and started pulling out his soldiers,” the Silver Star citation said. “The flames gripped his fuel soaked uniform. Flames quickly spread all over his body.”

Cashe continued to assist others, even after he was on fire, the citation said. He suffered burns over 72 percent of his body.

Cashe’s sister, Kasinal Cashe White, said in phone conference with reporters recently that she did not believe discrimination had a role in the Army’s failure to award the Medal of Honor sooner. She cited a conversation that she had with Brito, who also is Black, in 2007.

Brito, she said, told her that no one in the 3rd Infantry Division had received anything higher than the Silver Star and that he knew from the information he had at the time that Cashe merited one.

“What I feel is that the information did not get back in time,” she said.

White added that she “won’t allow anybody to make it a race thing.”

“He did what he did not because he was Black, but because he was a soldier and because he loved his men,” she said. “And I believe they loved him in return.”

I expect that if the President, in a fit of pique over how the election went, refuses to sign it, it’ll be quickly resubmitted in the next Congress and President-elect Biden will sign it and then make the award.

I did not know SFC Cashe as I didn’t go to work for the Army until 2007. However, I do have a connection to him and know of his heroism. When I deployed to Iraq in 2008 with the 2nd Brigade Combat Team/1st Armored Division (2BCT/1AD), the Iron Brigade, our operating environment (OE) included one (command) forward operating base (FOB), four combat outposts (COP), and a number of patrol bases (PB). Our armor battalion, 1st Battalion/35th Armor Regiment (Task Force Iron Knights) was located just outside of Jisr Diyala on a combat outpost that was divided into a north and south base. This base’s name is COP Cashe; specifically COP Cashe North and COP Cashe South. I spent a lot of time during my deployment working with the 1/35 Armor Soldiers, as well as their Civil Affairs Team-Alpha (CAT-A), and their National Police Training Team (NPiTT) and, as a result, spent a good amount of time living and working off of COP Cashe South. There was a large portrait of SFC Cashe in the entryway to the tactical operations center (TOC) and a description of his heroism hung beside it.

This award is well deserved and too long overdue. And it is fitting that the Senate bestirred itself to actually act on this in advance of Veterans Day.

And, so that I don’t get yelled at in the comments, here’s some appropriate Veterans Day music.

Open thread!

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Smells Like Freedom

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Smells Like Freedom

Now that President-elect Biden and Vice President-elect Harris have addressed the Nation, I just thought I’d put this up to pass the time. I’ve written here on a few occasions that My Country Tis of Thee is my favorite patriotic song. Given what we’ve all been through since June 2015, I think this version – the abolitionist version – is appropriate.

Open thread!

PS: I’ll be back tomorrow to harsh everyone’s mellow and explain why the next 74 days will be the most dangerous days the US has ever faced. So you all have something to look forward to!

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Visual Communication: The Pennsylvania Attorney General Brings His A Game

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While we wait for Vice President and President-Elect presumptive Biden and Senator and Vice President-elect presumptive Harris to begin their event, I wanted to point out Pennsylvania Attorney General Josh Shapiro’s absolutely excellent visual communication capabilities. Take a look at the picture below and notice what is on the shelf behind and a little bit above his left shoulder:

Visual Communication: The Pennsylvania Attorney General Brings His A Game

In the center, in front of the clock is a USPS mail truck. To the right of the truck is Count Von Count from Sesame Street. To the truck’s left, at the extreme left of the shelf, is Sam the Eagle at the presidential podium from The Muppet Show. And between Sam the Eagle and the USPS mail truck, to the left of the clock and above everything else is a Notorious RBG action figure.

Regardless of what AG Shapiro was saying, what he’s communicating here is that under his watch Pennsylvania will count all the mail in ballots in the 2020 election and for president under the watchful eye of the late Associate Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg. This is excellent visual communication!

And here’s the video of the media hit. Wait for it… Wait for it…

Well played young Shapiro, well played!

Open thread!

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Marking Beliefs To Market: What I and Everyone Else Missed Or Ignored

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There’s a lot of lamentation going on about how Biden had no coattails. That all the talk of progressive priorities is what caused the Democrats to loose seats in the House and prevented them from gaining/flipping seats in the Senate. This was, apparently, part of some screaming at today’s Democratic House caucus Zoom call and some tweets by AOC and the lying shitbird Waleed Shahid. And, of course, how the pollsters all screwed up once again. While I’ve got a couple of specific points on the pollsters, which I’ll save for the end, here’s what I think got missed and ignored. And it got missed and ignored not just by the pollsters, but also by the modelers: Cook, Sabato, etc.

On Sunday night I wrote this:

The political science PhD part of me, in line with Charlie Cook’s projections, looks at the data and information we have and recognizes the high probability that VP Biden wins without much difficult and the Democrats are able to achieve a 52 seat Senate majority. The low intensity warfare professional in me looks at what’s going on and is exceedingly concerned regardless of what happens on Tuesday.

Let’s leave low intensity warfare professional me out of this, as he’s on solid ground, but I clearly got it wrong. And I got it wrong because Cook got it wrong. And Cook got it wrong because the data he had was wrong. And the data he had was wrong because the assumptions underlying the collection of the data were wrong based on a misreading of what happened in 2018.

What everyone missed is that in 2018 if you were pissed at Trump, uncomfortable with Trump, disliked Trump, were concerned about what Trump was doing and you wanted to cast a protest vote against Trump you could only do so by voting for Democrats and against Republicans. And that’s what caused the 2018 blue wave for the Democrats in the House races. And it’s why it didn’t reappear this time.

It didn’t reappear this time because Trump was on the ballot. So if you are pissed at Trump, uncomfortable with Trump, dislike Trump, are concerned about what Trump is doing and wanted to cast a protest vote against Trump you actually could directly vote against Trump and then go and vote how you normally would, how you’re comfortable voting, which was for all the other Republicans just like you always do because you’re a Republican. That’s your team. That’s your tribe. That’s how you identify. And that’s the lens you understand politics and America through. Yes, this means that all these people angry with Trump who voted against him, but voted for all the other Republicans are completely oblivious to the fact that all of those folks enabled Trump, went along with Trump, embraced Trump, refused to stand up to Trump, refused to cross Trump, and are, therefore, just as bad as Trump. They may in fact be worse because they’re not Trump and therefore should both know and be better.

Congressman Max Rose should never have even gotten close to being elected to Congress from his district in Staten Island. That’s not because Max Rose is a bad member of Congress or a sellout or anything else. It is simply that Max Rose, because he’s a Democrat and because he’s Jewish, is a TERRIBLE fit for that district. It shouldn’t be surprising that Staten Islanders, who would normally only vote for a Republican, could actually protest vote against Trump in 2020 by actually voting against Trump in 2020. And that they were then perfectly willing to go back to voting for the Republican running to unseat Rose. Which is what they did.

What the pollsters missed, what the modelers like Cooke missed, and what, as a result, allowed us all to miss because we were working off of their assumptions and data and models is that there does not appear to have been a major shift among suburban white women, and some suburban white men, from the Republicans to the Democrats because of Trump. What there appears to be is that suburban white women and some suburban white men don’t like Trump and will vote against him if he’s on the ballot. When he’s not, they will vote against Republicans as a protest because they can’t directly vote against him.

This is not a fully original theory. My thinking was prompted by this tweet from Dave Wasserman:

I think there is empirical goodness here that we need to keep in mind going forward.

I said up top that I wanted to make a specific point about the pollsters. I read today, actually reread because I saw someone flag a 2012 article on election technology, polling disparities, and election rigging, and this stood out at me:

The statistically anomalous shifting of votes to the conservative right has become so pervasive in post-HAVA America that it now has a name of its own. Experts call it the “red shift.”

The Election Defense Alliance (EDA) is a nonprofit organization specializing in election forensics—a kind of dusting for the fingerprints of electronic theft. It is joined in this work by a coalition of independent statisticians, who have compared decades of computer-vote results to exit polls, tracking polls, and hand counts. Their findings show that when disparities occur, they benefit Republicans and right-wing issues far beyond the bounds of probability. “We approach electoral integrity with a nonpartisan goal of transparency,” says EDA executive director Jonathan Simon. “But there is nothing nonpartisan about the patterns we keep finding.” Simon’s verdict is confirmed by David Moore, a former vice president and managing editor of Gallup: “What the exit polls have consistently shown is stronger Democratic support than the election results.”

Wouldn’t American voters eventually note the constant disparity between poll numbers and election outcomes, and cry foul? They might—except that polling numbers, too, are being quietly shifted. Exit-poll data is provided by the National Election Pool, a corporate-media consortium consisting of the three major television networks plus CNN, Fox News, and the Associated Press. The NEP relies in turn on two companies, Edison Research and Mitofsky International, to conduct and analyze the actual polling. However, few Americans realize that the final exit polls on Election Day are adjusted by the pollsters—in other words, weighted according to the computerized-voting-machine totals.

When challenged on these disparities, pollsters often point to methodological flaws. Within days of the 2004 election, Warren Mitofsky (who invented exit polls in 1967) appeared on television to unveil what became known as the “reluctant Bush responder” theory: “We suspect that the main reason was that the Kerry voters were more anxious to participate in our exit polls than the Bush voters.” But some analysts and pollsters insist this theory is entirely unproven. “I don’t think the pollsters have really made a convincing case that it’s solely methodological,” Moore told me.

In Moore’s opinion, the NEP could resolve the whole issue by making raw, unadjusted, precinct-level data available to the public. “Our great, free, and open media are concealing data so that it cannot be analyzed,” Moore charges. Their argument that such data is proprietary and would allow analysts to deduce which votes were cast by specific individuals is, Moore insists, “specious at best.” He adds: “They have a communal responsibility to clarify whether there is a vote miscount going on. But so far there’s been no pressure on them to do so.”

Some argue that the Democratic victories in 2006 and 2008 disprove the existence of the red shift. However, this may be a misinterpretation of complex political upheavals that occurred in each of those election years.

While Democrats won a majority in the House of Representatives in 2006, and the White House in 2008, postelection analyses did in fact suggest extensive red-shift rigging. But in both election cycles, these efforts simply failed to overcome eleventh-hour events so negative that they drastically undercut the projected wins for the G.O.P.

In 2006, it was the exposure of Republican representative Mark Foley’s sexual advances toward male congressional pages, and the long-standing cover-up of his behavior by G.O.P. leadership. The scandal swirling around the outwardly homophobic Foley broke in a very ugly and public way, engulfing the entire party and causing a free fall in its polling numbers. The Democratic margin in the Cook Generic Congressional Ballot poll, which had been at 9 percent in early October, jumped to 26 percent by the week of the election.

The collapse of Lehman Brothers months before the 2008 elections had a similar effect on John McCain’s numbers. Pre-election polls showed that the American public blamed the Republicans for the imploding financial markets. “These political sea changes swamped a red shift that turned out to be under-calibrated,” argues Jonathan Simon, who speculates that Barack Obama actually won by a historic landslide, driven by an overwhelming backlash against the policies of the Bush Administration.

There’s a lot more important, solid, and infuriating information at the link! I think the take away is that there has not just been a problem with the professional polling, both in the run up to elections and the exit polling, that is reported in the news media and that is being relied on by everyone to understand what the dynamics are and what is going on, but that the problem is because the pollsters are cooking their own data so it doesn’t make it look like their data is wrong. No one trying to do good faith modeling or projections can do so if the data they are getting is itself misinformation.

A penultimate point about how the reporting of the results is being done. The national news media, especially the campaigning and political reporters have defaulted to their traditional and comfortable framing. If PA, WI, MI, and GA had been allowed to count mail in and early vote ballots like Florida or Ohio are, then by 1 AM at the latest on Wednesday morning we’d be reading about Biden’s historic win, with more of the popular vote than even Obama, that restored the blue wall in the midwest, and that GA had turned purple or was on the cusp of it. But because it’s dragged out, even the best reporting teams that were warning everyone not to be concerned if we didn’t know anything until Thursday or Friday, have now all reverted to horse race reporting, the Democrats are in disarray, why couldn’t Biden do better framing. In reality, Biden did amazing, but the narrative must be observed!!!

The final point I’ll make is that the Senate is still in play, even if the path for Democrats is narrow. Despite everyone being loath to call the Arizona race for Mark Kelly, the margin is too great for McSally to overtake and defeat him. This leaves four Senate seats outstanding: Alaska, both the Georgia seats, and North Carolina. Alaska, even if we didn’t have acknowledged and recognized issues with polling, is notoriously hard to poll. Dr. Gross does have a path to flip that seat, but I have no idea how probable that might be and I don’t think anyone else being honest does. While I’d like to see the Democrats take both the Georgia seats, I think the likelihood is that Warnock defeats Loeffler and Perdue narrowly hangs on, but Ossoff has run better than I think anyone expected, so the seat is in play. As for North Carolina, the state stopped reporting updates because of the Federal court rulings and agreements about how to handle the ballots that are allowed to come in after election day. It is possible that Tillis’s lead has grown, that it has eroded, or that nothing has really changed at all. But we won’t know until next week. The goal for the Democrats is now a 50-50 Senate where they get the majority because a Vice President Harris breaks all the ties. But it is also probable that McConnell maintains a 51 or 52 seat majority. If that happens, expect Schumer to offer Murkowski, Romney, and even Collins whatever they want to not go along with McConnell’s obstructionism.

Open thread!

PS: I told you all for over two months that unless Biden was up by at least 6, if not 10 points in the final Florida polling he was going to lose Florida by 1 to 2 points because there’s something funky going on with the polling in Florida that I’ve noticed as a pattern over the years. I am sorry to write that my concerns were correct.

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Everyone Just Calm The Fuck Down! The NC Numbers Were Misreported

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Just simmer down and let them actually count the votes. Remember the news media are projecting winners, not actually counting ballots.

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A Few Final Words From President Lincoln

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A Few Final Words From President Lincoln

(Abraham Lincoln Before His Speech at The Cooper Union)

On 27 February 1860 a not yet president Abraham Lincoln delivered his Cooper Union address. Lincoln recognized that the problems the Republic was facing, specifically the people behind the problems the Republic was facing, had not suddenly popped up between the mid 1830s and the 1860s. Rather, these people had been with Americans since before the founding attaching themselves to one faction or party and then another to try to achieve their objectives. And those objectives had little to do with the grand ideals of the Constitution that they then, and their ideological and political descendants today, love to quote while they use it as a shield to deflect responsibility from their actions and a club to bludgeon anyone and everyone that disagrees with them. Those objectives then, just as they are now, had nothing to do with providing for the common defense or securing the blessings of liberty or promoting the general welfare. Then, like today, and like their attempts to overthrow our self governing democratic-republic in the 1930s by subverting FDR’s presidency, was solely about greed, about self enrichment by stealing from the public treasury, from every American and every American’s hard work. Lincoln, clear eyed, had them sized up (emphasis mine):

But you say you are conservative – eminently conservative – while we are revolutionary, destructive, or something of the sort. What is conservatism? Is it not adherence to the old and tried, against the new and untried? We stick to, contend for, the identical old policy on the point in controversy which was adopted by “our fathers who framed the Government under which we live;” while you with one accord reject, and scout, and spit upon that old policy, and insist upon substituting something new. True, you disagree among yourselves as to what that substitute shall be. You are divided on new propositions and plans, but you are unanimous in rejecting and denouncing the old policy of the fathers.

Not one of all your various plans can show a precedent or an advocate in the century within which our Government originated. Consider, then, whether your claim of conservatism for yourselves, and your charge or destructiveness against us, are based on the most clear and stable foundations.

But you will break up the Union rather than submit to a denial of your Constitutional rights.

That has a somewhat reckless sound; but it would be palliated, if not fully justified, were we proposing, by the mere force of numbers, to deprive you of some right, plainly written down in the Constitution. But we are proposing no such thing.

Your purpose, then, plainly stated, is that you will destroy the Government, unless you be allowed to construe and enforce the Constitution as you please, on all points in dispute between you and us. You will rule or ruin in all events.

This, plainly stated, is your language. Perhaps you will say the Supreme Court has decided the disputed Constitutional question in your favor. Not quite so. But waiving the lawyer’s distinction between dictum and decision, the Court have decided the question for you in a sort of way.

Under all these circumstances, do you really feel yourselves justified to break up this Government unless such a court decision as yours is, shall be at once submitted to as a conclusive and final rule of political action? But you will not abide the election of a Republican president! In that supposed event, you say, you will destroy the Union; and then, you say, the great crime of having destroyed it will be upon us! That is cool. A highwayman holds a pistol to my ear, and mutters through his teeth, “Stand and deliver, or I shall kill you, and then you will be a murderer!”

To be sure, what the robber demanded of me – my money – was my own; and I had a clear right to keep it; but it was no more my own than my vote is my own; and the threat of death to me, to extort my money, and the threat of destruction to the Union, to extort my vote, can scarcely be distinguished in principle.

The question recurs, what will satisfy them? Simply this: We must not only let them alone, but we must somehow, convince them that we do let them alone.This, we know by experience, is no easy task. We have been so trying to convince them from the very beginning of our organization, but with no success. In all our platforms and speeches we have constantly protested our purpose to let them alone; but this has had no tendency to convince them. Alike unavailing to convince them, is the fact that they have never detected a man of us in any attempt to disturb them.

Silence will not be tolerated – we must place ourselves avowedly with them.

Rule or ruin. That was the crux of it in 1860.

It was the crux of it in 1933 when a group of ultra wealthy elites unhappy with how FDR was leading the US out of the depression sought to overthrow his presidency. The conspirators included Robert Sterling Clark, Grayson M. P. Murphy, and Prescott Bush among others. They conspired and attempted to recruit Marine Major General Smedley Darlington Butler to turn the membership of the American Legion into an insurgency. An insurgency that would allow them to force FDR to accept a co-president, appointed by the ultra wealthy conspirators, who would secretly run the US on their behalf while FDR served as a figurehead. Fortunately they miscalculated and picked the wrong Marine. Maj. Gen. Butler played it cool, collected the necessary information, and went right to Congress and then the news media in order to expose the plot.

It is the crux of it now in 2020. Rule or ruin! The President, Senator McConnell, the Republican majority caucus in the Senate, the Republican minority caucus in the House, their surrogates, what passes for an intelligentsia within the conservative movement, the ultra wealthy donors like the Mercers, the Kochs, the DeVoses, the Uhliens, the Popes, the Thiels, the Zuckerbergs, and many, many, many others who now, like in 1860 and 1933, seek to enrich themselves at everyone else’s expense.

They seek to rule or ruin. It is all they have ever sought. They don’t care about party, when they finish consuming and using up what’s left of the Republican Party they’ll attach themselves to another party. Just as they abandoned the Democratic Party and attached themselves like the parasites they are to the Republican Party during the Civil Rights era of the 1960s when it became clear that they could no longer achieve their goals through the Democratic Party. All they care about is ruling or ruining. They don’t care about the ordered liberty, civic rights and responsibilities, and individual rights and responsibilities that animated the founders and framers. They don’t actually care about the Constitution or what it means. They don’t actually care about America and its ideals, the actual promise of those ideals, and the charge laid upon us all by the founders and framers to create a more perfect union. They certainly don’t care about providing for the common defense, securing the blessings of liberty, and promoting the general welfare. They don’t actually care about America or Americans except insofar as they can use America to protect themselves, their property, and their wealth and they can exploit every other American to further enrich themselves. If they cannot rule, then they will always seek to ruin.

Lincoln was clear eyed as to who they were and what they were about in 1860. As we go into election day tomorrow, even if you’ve already cast your vote by mail or in person during early voting, we need to be as clear eyed as Lincoln to the threat they pose to the Republic and recognize that voting tomorrow to disempower these anti-American wreckers is just the first step in a centuries long war for not just control of, but for the soul of, America.

Open thread!

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Demoralization Is the Point

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The whole point of all the chaos that the President, his campaign, his surrogates, and his supporters are calling for, and the actual chaos that he, his surrogates, and his supporters are creating, are all intended to do one thing: demoralize everyone. In the table below you can see the Soviet doctrinal model for subverting a state and society. Demoralization is one of the major components. Among other actions, it includes subverting the legislative process to subvert the judicial system and the rule of law. Part of the reason that Senator McConnell jammed Amy Coney Barrett’s nomination through in under six weeks just before the election is to demoralize the majority of Americans. It is why he’s already stated publicly that during the lame duck, regardless of the results of the election, he’s not going to bring a COVID relief package to the floor. Rather, all he’s going to do is fill the remaining Federal judicial vacancies in order to achieve a legislative demoralization two for: further packing the courts with Leonard Leo chosen reactionaries and extremists and ensuring that Americans don’t get the help and assistance they need to survive the pandemic.

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