The most interesting question about the stimulus reconciliation vote later this week is whether or not Boehner and Cantor will make all the House Republicans vote against it again. If they do, they’re assholes who have thrown their most vulnerable incumbents under the bus to make themselves look like tough guys.
Remember, everything you hear from people in Washington about what Americans think is bullshit. Most of the time, they’re just trying to claim that whatever position they’ve been forced to take is just what their constituents want. But you can tell if a threatened incumbent really thinks his constituents like something he did by how much he talks about that something; and you can tell if a challenger thinks constituents hate something the threatened incumbent did by how much the challenger talks about that something.
In my area, there are two freshmen Congressmen who may face tough re-election battles in 2010. One, a Democrat, Eric Massa (NY-29) voted for the stim and has worked to get a huge amount of press coverage of the projects it would bring to the area (this district is covered by one of the best single district blogs in the country, so this has been easy to follow). The other, a Republican, Chris Lee (NY-26) voted against the bill and is now being hit with ads from the DCCC for doing so. That tells you all you need to know about how the stimulus is likely to play in my area.
I’m not sure how typical Western New York is of the United States but it’s fairly typical of the Rust Belt. People in the Rust Belt are particularly scared about the economy and generally love outside spending (from the state or feds) on local projects. Making Rust Belt Republicans vote against the stimulus is a good way for the Republicans to write off places like Pennsylvania and Ohio in the next election.
I don’t think Boehner and Cantor are quite dumb enough to do this. But I’ve underestimated Republican stupidity before.