Who knows how nuts the Trumpkins will get trying to block impeachment, but we can do our part to help vulnerable House Dems do the right thing and impeach Dolt 45. Give here to the Balloon Juice 2020 House Fund, split equally among the 17 most vulnerable Democratic incumbents (you can also parcel it out among them however you like).
If you’ve got local elections this fall, don’t forget to vote. And if you’ve got time, get involved. We’ve got a big one coming up here — a county exec raise the Dems have a real chance of winning. If we do it will be the first time in over 30 years. That’s the Trump effect, my friends. This November’s locals are important nationally in a way that most local elections are not. If Republicans take enough of a beating in November, it’s going to be that much tougher for them to keep clapping for Dear Leader.
The most high profile state elections are Virginia. The numbers look great for Democrats right now.
Voters prefer that Democrats control the General Assembly after the election, 53% to 37%, powered by a 17-point advantage among Independents.
Give here to the Balloon Juice Virginia Democratic Legislative Caucus Fund. I upped the goal to 8K. This blog has become a fundraising powerhouse, we’ve raised 535K since August 2016. And I think for the most part we’ve given wisely. Thanks a lot to everyone.
The official Republican defense of Trump — from Tucker, from Bobo, from Ken Starr — is that sure Trump may have done something wrong but it doesn’t merit impeachment. I don’t think this is a great defense because frankly, what makes the Ukraine call vastly different from Clinton’s affair with Monica Lewisnky and even somewhat different from the vast evidence amassed by Robert Mueller that Trump obstructed justice is that at some gut level, most Americans are appalled by the idea of a president getting other countries’ criminal justice systems to go after the president’s rival. David Brooks has taught me that this kind of thing goes on all the time in Flyover country, but even at the Applebee’s salad bar, I doubt there’s much support for this kind of corruption.
We raised about 3K yesterday for the legislative races in Virginia. Thanks everybody! Today, let’s raise some more money for the House Dems who might feel the heat when impeachment goes down. The fund below is split equally among the 17 most vulnerable Democratic incumbents. (You can also parcel it out however you like to avoid getting on too many mailing lists.)
I’ve come to the conclusion that one of the few things that might scare Republicans into voting to remove Trump would be an epic ass-whupping this fall in state and local elections. So vote in your local elections if you have them this fall!
The most high-profile state elections are in Virginia. So let’s flip both chambers (both held by Rs by a single seat right now). You can give here to the Virginia Democratic Legislative Caucus.
Laika passed on Saturday afternoon. My whole family is pretty broken up about it. As my wife put it “Laika knew things that we didn’t know, she was like a yogi”. Laika was the Will Rogers of dogs, she never met a person she didn’t like. When I think of how quickly she died after we first found out she had a tumor, I know that she must have been putting up a brave face, hiding it from us for a while, because all she wanted was for the people around her to be happy. So we are trying out best not to be too sad, because the last thing she would have wanted was for us to be sad. Laika didn’t have a mean bone in her body, as one of the groomers put it. She wished everyone the best.
I’ve never been too much into the whole “he’s a nice guy” school of politics. Nice guy? I don’t give a shit. Good father? Fuck you. Go home and play with your kids. But Trump is such an incredible asshole that I do hold it against him. I don’t think it’s healthy for us as a country to have someone like that in the White House. That is not reason enough to impeach him, but it is part of why I now think it’s time for him to be removed. I don’t know how great the politics of that are, I don’t know if Pence might have a better chance of winning in
2016 2020 than Trump. But it doesn’t matter to me, anymore. What he did with Ukraine is completely beyond the pale and it’s not isolated. He needs to go.
If you made me guess, I’d say that if there’s a Senate trial, there is almost no chance that more than 2 or 3 Republicans in the Senate would vote for his removal. And I think zero or 1 is most likely. But I don’t know for sure.
First step is the House. Democrats in competitive districts may be hurt by the politics of impeachment so let’s raise some more money for them.
Our dog Laika isn’t doing so well. She had a big seizure Tuesday night and since then she’s had trouble with balance. We are hoping it is just the anvi-convulsant medicine we have been giving her, and that it will pass (the side effects lessen over time) but we don’t know. The doctor thinks it is probably a brain tumor. People always say their dog is the best dog but Laika REALLY IS the best dog in the world.
When Benny was a little baby, Laika would lie down next to him whenever there weren’t people within ten feet of him, to make sure he was ok and to protect him.
Let’s raise some more money for vulnerable Democrats in the House to support the impeachment process. I’m afraid that if Trump skates on this, there’s no going back to a world where presidents are expected to follow the law…at least until we get a Democrat in the White House again, at which time wearing tan suits and asking for Dijon mustard will once again become high crimes and misdemeanors. Do it for Laika.
The most amazing and terrible part of the impeachment discussion is that Ken Starr and Jonathan Turley, who led and cheerled Clinton’s impeachment, respectively, are now Trump’s biggest defenders. There is no present or future, only the past, happening over and over again.
Democrats in tough districts are showing a lot of guts right now in backing an impeachment inquiry. Let’s help them out with a little campaign money — the fund below is split among the 17 most endangered Dem incumbents.
I’ve been an impeachment skeptic but after the Ukraine story, Democrats have no choice but to begin an impeachment inquiry. The following things will happen: Republicans won’t convict him in the Senate (and they probably will block having a trial at all), Ken Starr and Jonathan Turley will appear constantly on tv defending Trump, there will be a lot of concern-trolling about “Democratic overreach”. The whole exercise will be difficult. Jed Bartlett’s not going to show up and solve the whole thing with some crisp dialogue.
The politics of impeachment may be tricky for Democratic members of the House in competitive districts. So let’s raise a lot of money for them right now.
At first glance, Democrats’ performance last night in the North Carolina specials looks pretty crappy. They ran slightly behind Hillary ’16 in NC-3 and about ten points better in NC-9. The average of the two then was almost exactly the 5.5 over-performance that Dems have averaged in 34 specials since the mid-term. If the all-but-inevitable Williamson-Moulton ticket does 5.5 points better nationwide than Clinton-Kaine did, then they’ll win the popular vote by 7.5 points, which would be a fairly easy win.
Here’s a scary point, by the way: Dems win the popular vote by less than 4 points, Trump has a good chance to prevail in the Electoral College. And here’s another scary point: if the election comes out exactly like last time only with Dems flipping PA, MI, and WI, and in one of those three the margin is under 2 points or so, I think Trump is likely to contest the results and refuse to leave office. I don’t think anyone other than Jonathan Turley and Marc Thiessen will fully support him on that, on the other hand.
Anyway, I thought now might be a good time to do some fundraising. The Dem performance in NC-9 certainly frightens Republicans. Let’s raise some more money for the 17 most endangered House Democrats and help them put up fundraising totals that will scare away potential challengers.
I didn’t go all in on fundraising for the NC-9 special election earlier because I had heard the poll numbers didn’t look that good for Democrats a few weeks ago. They look pretty good now.
The survey, conducted Aug. 26-28 by Harper Polling and Clarity Campaign Labs, showed McCready (D) with a 46-42 percent advantage over Bishop (R), and two third party candidates receiving a combined 3 percent. When leaners are included, McCready’s advantage extended to 49-44 percent.
Trump won this district by 11 points in 2016.
If we can flip this seat, expect a pretty big Republican freak-out and some more retirements. There have already been quite a few. So let’s raise a little more. I think this is a real opportunity.
Let’s do some fundraising for the special in NC-09. It takes place in two weeks, so we are in the stretch run. McCready is a great candidate. If we win this, expect some more Republican retirements. I upped the goal to $2500.
This blog has become a fundraising powerhouse. We raised 375K in the 2018 cycle. Thanks everybody! We backed *a lot* of candidates who flipped seats. Let’s back one more.
Update. Comments are slow so I’ll give you a topic: two of my all-time favorite movie endings are Godfather II (with the flash-back to Michael joining the army) and The Limey (with a flashback to a different movie starring Terence Stamp when he was younger)..what are some other movies that end with flash-backs?
I’ve been slacking on fundraising so I’m going to do a bunch at once now. Early money is important.
Here’s the Balloon Juice Senate Fund, split between nominee funds in several competitive states where we have a chance to flip a seat. (You can allocate as you like when you click on the contributed button.)
The Balloon Juice for Virginia Fund, which gives to the Virginia Senate Democratic Caucus and Virginia House Democratic Caucus. Flipping the legislature in Virginia (where Rs have a one-seat majority in each house) is probably the most important state Democratic goal in 2019.
For those in a more defensive mood, here’s the Balloon Juice House fund, split between the most vulnerable members of the federal Democratic House caucus. A lot of the people in here are first-terms whom we helped win in November 2018 (we raised 375K for the 2018 cycle here, btw).
Mistermix mentioned a big retirement in Texas, Will Hurd from TX-23. Let’s raise some money for the eventual Democratic nominee.
Texas is one of the most interesting states in the country politically right now, because of two political trends. One is moving more slowly than many thought it would — that’s the change in voting patterns as Latinos become a larger portion of the state’s population. The other is moving much more quickly — and that’s the movement of the suburbs, especially suburban women, away from the Republican party. I love this tweet from Dave Weigel
If the parties realize suburban voters are more gettable than working class whites, I'm excited for the new campaign rhetoric.
"I was forged by towns like this. My daddy was a simple Princeton-educated IT manager. I worked the morning shift at Panera."
— Dave Weigel (@daveweigel) November 15, 2017
Here’s a picture of Benny!
I got a lot of requests from people to start raising money for the Virginia state elections. Both the Senate and House are barely Republican (one seat majorities in both). Let’s raise some money for Democrats in Virginia (the fund here is split equally between the House and Senate Democratic caucuses, both of which have announced aggressive campaigns to flip their respective chambers).
I’ll be on the radio today at 1 pm on this program discussing the 2020 presidential election.
I thought of a topic, sort of related to the post title here (Exile on Main Street is my all-time favorite record but had only one radio hit on it): what are some examples of great bands whose biggest radio hits were awful? I thought of this because someone mentioned that Elvis Costello’s biggest hits were Alison and Veronica, and Veronica is in my opinion one of Elvis’s very worst songs. Another example is Neil Young with Heart of Gold (I’m not a huge Neil Young fan but he wrote some great songs and that’s not one of them). And another is Tom Waits, who didn’t have any real radio hits, but has a few songs they will play on smaller radio stations and one of them is “Jersey Girl”, which I hate.
Update. And here’s a Benny pic.
Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) drew a high-profile Democratic challenger Monday, as Maine House Speaker Sara Gideon announced her candidacy with a video that sought to undermine Collins’s carefully tended moderate image.
I upped the goal on the Balloon Juice Senate challenger fund. (Update: I had the wrong link up below but I fixed it now.)