Whatever happened to predictability?

At first glance, Democrats’ performance last night in the North Carolina specials looks pretty crappy. They ran slightly behind Hillary ’16 in NC-3 and about ten points better in NC-9. The average of the two then was almost exactly the 5.5 over-performance that Dems have averaged in 34 specials since the mid-term. If the all-but-inevitable Williamson-Moulton ticket does 5.5 points better nationwide than Clinton-Kaine did, then they’ll win the popular vote by 7.5 points, which would be a fairly easy win.

Here’s a scary point, by the way: Dems win the popular vote by less than 4 points, Trump has a good chance to prevail in the Electoral College. And here’s another scary point: if the election comes out exactly like last time only with Dems flipping PA, MI, and WI, and in one of those three the margin is under 2 points or so, I think Trump is likely to contest the results and refuse to leave office. I don’t think anyone other than Jonathan Turley and Marc Thiessen will fully support him on that, on the other hand.

Anyway, I thought now might be a good time to do some fundraising. The Dem performance in NC-9 certainly frightens Republicans. Let’s raise some more money for the 17 most endangered House Democrats and help them put up fundraising totals that will scare away potential challengers.

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So fucking special

I didn’t go all in on fundraising for the NC-9 special election earlier because I had heard the poll numbers didn’t look that good for Democrats a few weeks ago. They look pretty good now.

The survey, conducted Aug. 26-28 by Harper Polling and Clarity Campaign Labs, showed McCready (D) with a 46-42 percent advantage over Bishop (R), and two third party candidates receiving a combined 3 percent. When leaners are included, McCready’s advantage extended to 49-44 percent.

Trump won this district by 11 points in 2016.

If we can flip this seat, expect a pretty big Republican freak-out and some more retirements. There have already been quite a few. So let’s raise a little more. I think this is a real opportunity.

Goal Thermometer

Mama don’t let your babies grow up to be cowboys

Let’s do some fundraising for the special in NC-09. It takes place in two weeks, so we are in the stretch run. McCready is a great candidate. If we win this, expect some more Republican retirements. I upped the goal to $2500.

Goal Thermometer

This blog has become a fundraising powerhouse. We raised 375K in the 2018 cycle. Thanks everybody! We backed *a lot* of candidates who flipped seats. Let’s back one more.

Update. Comments are slow so I’ll give you a topic: two of my all-time favorite movie endings are Godfather II (with the flash-back to Michael joining the army) and The Limey (with a flashback to a different movie starring Terence Stamp when he was younger)..what are some other movies that end with flash-backs?

Stop, collaborate, and listen

I’ve been slacking on fundraising so I’m going to do a bunch at once now. Early money is important.

Here’s the Balloon Juice Senate Fund, split between nominee funds in several competitive states where we have a chance to flip a seat. (You can allocate as you like when you click on the contributed button.)

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The Balloon Juice for Virginia Fund, which gives to the Virginia Senate Democratic Caucus and Virginia House Democratic Caucus. Flipping the legislature in Virginia (where Rs have a one-seat majority in each house) is probably the most important state Democratic goal in 2019.

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For those in a more defensive mood, here’s the Balloon Juice House fund, split between the most vulnerable members of the federal Democratic House caucus. A lot of the people in here are first-terms whom we helped win in November 2018 (we raised 375K for the 2018 cycle here, btw).

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A song of old San Antone

Mistermix mentioned a big retirement in Texas, Will Hurd from TX-23. Let’s raise some money for the eventual Democratic nominee.

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Texas is one of the most interesting states in the country politically right now, because of two political trends. One is moving more slowly than many thought it would — that’s the change in voting patterns as Latinos become a larger portion of the state’s population. The other is moving much more quickly — and that’s the movement of the suburbs, especially suburban women, away from the Republican party. I love this tweet from Dave Weigel

Here’s a picture of Benny!