Now that this error is almost over, I think it is time to revisit predictions from November 2016.
TLDR: We’re fucked hard and good
I expect the Supreme Court to be a 5-4 reactionary majority on voter rights. I would not be shocked if there is a bill filed to expand the court to 11 or 13 Justices filed and floating around as a sword of Damocles to threaten Kennedy to vote for anything coming off of the Susan B. Anthony fund’s wishlist. I expect the filibuster to be gone by lunchtime on the first day of the new Congress.
Yes, there is a reactionary majority on voting rights and it looks to be durable. Susan B. Anthony List wishlist will be fulfilled but through a different mechanism than I thought. The filibuster is still limping along.
I would give myself a 1.5 out of 3
I expect the Republican Party to use their position of concentrated minorities against a dispersed majority to do as much as they can to lock in as much of a partisan tilt as possible. Packing the courts is the big one as the Democrats have majorities on most of the Appeals circuits right now. Getting to Republican majorities via packing in 40 something Federalist society drones is extraordinarily efficient as that can only be altered quickly if the Democrats can get a trifecta and they re-pack. It’s nasty but efficient.
Yep! 1 for 1
We’re going to see massive mistakes of basic execution (and many executions that should not occur even if one supports the death penalty) as competence does not matter. We will be governed by the Brietbart comments section. Any policy (even if it is a good one) that is more complex than allowing contributors to use the commons as a waste dump or passing out large checks to the already comfortable or beating up on liberals/Democrats/Other will get fucked up. Deep Water Horizon in the Trump Administration would still be leaking.
Yep, significantly more federal executions. Significantly more use of the commons as a dumping ground and upward redistribution of wealth. I under-estimated the clusterfuckedness of incompetency and inattention when it came to COVID.
3 for 3
We are going to be in caveat emptor low trust/high verification cost world as fidicuary duty obligations disappear, as the CFPB disappears and Dodd-Frank unwinds.
I was wrong on Dodd Frank —its sails got trimmed by regulation but not much by law.
1 for 2
We’re going to see any larger opioid outbreaks in rural counties as Medicaid funded drug treatment will be harder.
We’re going to see a lot of counties that voted for Trump continue to get kicked in the balls economically.
We’re going to lose a lot of people that have options to go elsewhere in the world. Immigrants with an education will find other places to go.
3 for 3
A lot of what has happened was predictable as it was predicted.
51 more hours of this error.