Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

They are all Michael Cohen now.

Fuck these fucking interesting times.

Whoever he was, that guy was nuts.

I’d like to think you all would remain faithful to me if I ever tried to have some of you killed.

When I decide to be condescending, you won’t have to dream up a fantasy about it.

Naturally gregarious and alpha

We can agree to disagree, but i’m right.

Deploy the moving finger of emphasisity!

It was down to kool-aid drinkers and next of kin at the trump White House

I’m only here for the duck photos.

It’s always darkest before the other shoe drops.

Accused of treason; bitches about the ratings. I am in awe.

Republican obstruction dressed up as bipartisanship. Again.

This is how realignments happen…

This is all too absurd to be reality, right?

Wetsuit optional.

Proof that we need a blogger ethics panel.

I’d try pessimism, but it probably wouldn’t work.

My years-long effort to drive family and friends away has really paid off this year.

Where tasty lettuce and good mustard aren’t elitist.

How do you get liars to care about the truth?

Sadly, there is no cure for stupid.

Something seems odd about that, but i have been drinking.

I did not have this on my fuck 2020 bingo card.

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Breaking! The Senate Has Passed the American Recovery Act!

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Alert

Reuters is reporting that the US Senate – the world’s greatest deliberative country club – has passed the American Recovery Act!

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The Senate on Saturday passed President Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion COVID-19 relief plan in a party-line vote after an all-night session that saw Democrats battling among themselves over jobless aid and the Republican minority failing in attempts to push through some three dozen amendments.

The final bill includes $400 billion in one-time payments of $1,400 to most Americans, $300 a week in extended jobless benefits for the 9.5 million people thrown out of work in the crisis, and $350 billion in aid to state and local governments that have seen the pandemic blow a hole in their budgets.

The Senate voted 50-49, with no Republicans voting in favor, on what would be one of the largest stimulus packages in U.S. history.

Since the Senate passed version differs from the version the House passed first and sent over to the Senate, the Senate version will now have to go back to the House for a vote. The House has three options:

  1. Pass the Senate version
  2. Amend the Senate version back to the original House version and send it back.
  3. Reject the Senate version.

I expect that Speaker Pelosi is going to go with option 1.

Despite having to wait and see what the House does, I do believe this is what President Biden refers to as a big fucking deal.

Biden: Big Fucking Deal

Open thread!

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The ACA and Chairman Neal’s draft

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Last night, Congressman Neal (D-MA) released the chairman’s draft of the House Ways and Means Committee version of the reconciliation bill for COVID.  It is about 200 pages.  There are less than ten pages that requires my professional attention.  The meat of the health policy is on p.84 of Subtitle G.

The short version of the bill is that for 2021 and 2022, almost everyone earning over 100% FPL will be eligible for an ACA subsidy and those subsidies will get notably bigger.

 

The ACA and Chairman Neal's draft

The long version is that this is an aggressive affordability attempt. It will make the 2022 market an almost entirely price-spread sensitive market. There are significant challenges on automatic re-newals as a lot of people could conceivably be placed in strictly dominated plans because in 2020 when they bought their 2021 plans, they purchased a lower premium but higher actuarial value plan from an insurer offering lower cost-sharing but higher premium options on the same network/plan type. They made those choices under a different subsidy system. However, it is likely that at least some higher premium plans with lower AV but on the same basic platform will now be zero premium plans. Actively aware individuals can make changes during the upcoming open-enrollment period. Not everyone is actively aware and involved. There will be people who are eligible for 87% or 94% Silver CSR plans with zero premium buying either zero premium Bronze or Gold plans in 2022. Fixing the automatic renewal process so that people are placed into plans with the highest actuarial value on the same fundamental platform of network, plan and plan type for a given premium will be an urgently needed update.

The second big question I have is if this passes in anything like its current form, what is the purpose of state subsidies like in California or 1332 reinsurance waivers for at least the 2022 plan year? Both of those are attempts to lower premiums for people who earn over 400% FPL. An 8.5% benchmark cap makes both state subsidies and 1332 reinsurance waivers irrelevant. So what happens to those funds. Thirdly, states that run a Section 1331 Basic Health Program where the state gets 95% of the federal subsidy that enrollees who earn under 200% FPL would other receive in order to provide a state funded and designed program that is effectively Medicaid Plus will see a huge cash windfall. The value of the APTC pass-through will skyrocket for two years.

There are a lot more things happening but these are things that stick out to me in this draft.

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In Case Anyone Was Wondering Why The Republicans Are Still Controlling the Senate

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It is because while Senator McConnell agreed last week to the language of the organizing resolution for the Senate – currently doing business as the “rules package” – it has not actually been voted on. Which led to this embarrassing exchange by Senator Durbin, who is supposed to be both the Senate Majority Whip and the chair of the Senate Judiciary Committee and Senator Graham who is still the Senate Judiciary Chair.

Why exactly is the Senate still in bizarro world? Me not allowed to explain*:

We’re in this mess because while Senator McConnell stopped objecting to the language in the organizing resolution because, according to him, both Senators Manchin and Sinema personally assured him they’d never vote to get rid of the filibuster for legislation. That all signs good. Manchin and Sinema personally assured him, he no longer objects to the language for the organizing resolution, the Democrats actually get to take control as the majority. And that’s also how it was reported. In every major news outlet and by every political reporter and by every commentator. But that’s not actually what is happening.

In order for the organizing resolution to pass one of two things has to happen. Either it is adopted by unanimous consent or it has to first pass the 60 vote threshold for cloture (the modern filibuster) and then pass the 51 vote simple majority to take effect. I’m sure by now you’ve all figured out that it was not adopted by unanimous consent. Which means it has to be calendared for a cloture vote and if, and only if, it gets 60 or more votes will it then be allowed to be calendared for a 51 vote simple majority vote. Until or unless that happens, Senator Schumer and the Democrats control the Senate floor and the calendar, but that’s it. All the committees maintain their Republican chairs and their Republican majorities under the previous and still in effect organizing resolution.

I’ve seen some reporting indicating that the organizing resolution for the now ongoing current Senate is supposed to be brought up on the floor of the Senate tomorrow. I’ve also seen other reporting that no agreement has been reached on when it will be brought up for a vote. Anyone want to put down money that whenever it does come up for a vote, at least 10 Republicans will vote with the 50 Democrats for cloture? I didn’t think so. If McConnell can keep the organizational resolution in limbo by refusing unanimous consent for it and then not freeing up 10 of his Republican senators to overcome the 60 vote cloture threshold, he’ll maintain defacto status as majority leader through the Republican committee chairs and Republican committee majorities through January 2023. Which is exactly what he wants to do. His strategy now, just as it was beginning in January 2009 in regard to President Obama, is to grind the Senate to a halt; allowing nothing to pass with Republican votes. His objective is too once again retake the Senate majority by making it impossible for the Democratic majority to accomplish anything and thereby make it impossible for President Biden to accomplish anything. And he knows he has a very good chance because the media would far prefer to cover anything other than process, which is boring, or McConnell, because he makes himself boring.

Sleep tight.

Open thread.

* For those who are not fans of Superman and his defective clone Bizarro, that’s Bizarro speak for “allow me to explain”.

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Monday Evening Open Thread: Another Excellent Small, Symbolic Step

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Can’t tell you how sweet it is to be highlighting good news instead of clown-car outrages!

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Monday Morning Open Thread: Blessed Normality

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Saturday Morning Open Thread: Begin As You Mean to Go On

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Friday Morning Open Thread: Celebrate! (Then Get Back to Work)

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I think most of us have had enough time & space to be able to enjoy this in the spirit it was intended, now.

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