Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Damn right I heard that as a threat.

An almost top 10,000 blog!

When do we start airlifting the women and children out of Texas?

The math demands it!

… riddled with inexplicable and elementary errors of law and fact

I’ve spoken to my cat about this, but it doesn’t seem to do any good.

People are complicated. Love is not.

Sadly, there is no cure for stupid.

Our job is not to persuade republicans but to defeat them.

I see no possible difficulties whatsoever with this fool-proof plan.

Wow, you are pre-disappointed. How surprising.

When I decide to be condescending, you won’t have to dream up a fantasy about it.

If senate republicans had any shame, they’d die of it.

And we’re all out of bubblegum.

Militantly superior in their own minds…

This fight is for everything.

The poor and middle-class pay taxes, the rich pay accountants, the wealthy pay politicians.

You are either for trump or for democracy. Pick one.

They are all Michael Cohen now.

It might be fine, or it might be a clusterfuck.

We are aware of all internet traditions.

Fuck these fucking interesting times.

Is it irresponsible to speculate? It is irresponsible not to.

Hot air and ill-informed banter

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A Little Justice Served

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Justice is the main course, but schadenfreude is the dessert:

A federal judge sent a strong message to each of the so-called “Kraken” lawyers behind litigation to upend the 2020 election, ordering that they be referred for a professional conduct investigation and “possible suspension or disbarment.” The attorneys include pro-Trump lawyers Lin Wood and Sidney Powell.

Full of indignation and spanning 110 pages, U.S. District Judge Linda Parker‘s ruling reads like a treatise on the judiciary’s role in protecting the democratic process.

“This lawsuit represents a historic and profound abuse of the judicial process,” Judge Parker wrote in her opinion and order. “It is one thing to take on the charge of vindicating rights associated with an allegedly fraudulent election. It is another to take on the charge of deceiving a federal court and the American people into believing that rights were infringed, without regard to whether any laws or rights were in fact violated. This is what happened here.”

Fines, referrals for punitive action, and legal education were ordered. It’s rare, but sometimes people get a taste of what they deserve.

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Thanks for nothing, Mitch

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Thanks to sky-high political polarization and geographic distribution combined with the anti-democratic slaver vestige known as the Electoral College, a dwindling voter bloc comprising the least-informed and most noncommittal motherfuckers on the continent increasingly determine the outcome of U.S. presidential elections: swing voters.

Is that assessment harsh? Yes. But I stand by the description for anyone who would vote for President Obama in 2012 and then turnaround and vote for Donald Fucking Trump in 2016.

Trump’s nutso base gets all the attention because they are loud and stupid, make ghastly fashion choices and dabble in armed insurrection on behalf of an angry, bloated Circus Peanut. That rabble grew in number between 2016 and 2020, which is worrisome for all kinds of reasons.

But so did the share of Democratic voters who participated in the 2020 election, giving President Biden an enormous popular vote victory. Still, it wouldn’t have mattered if swing voters in key states hadn’t swung Biden’s way, according to analysis from the UVA Center for Politics.

So, why did those voters swing? Because Trump went hard-right in office after running as an angry, bloated Circus Peanut of less definitive political provenance:

Many political observers have argued that Donald Trump transformed the Republican Party during his four years in the White House. That is clearly true. Trump moved issues that he cared about — especially xenophobia — from the periphery to the center of the party.

What is not recognized nearly as often is that during his four years in office, the Republican Party transformed Donald Trump. The Donald Trump of 2016 lacked a clear ideological identity. While he was generally seen as some sort of conservative, he frequently took positions at odds with conservative orthodoxy including pledging to oppose cuts to Medicare and Social Security and to replace the Affordable Care Act with something providing more generous benefits at lower cost…

A variety of factors undoubtedly contributed to Donald Trump’s defeat in 2020, including his gross mishandling of the coronavirus pandemic. However, the growing perception of Trump as a far-right president, along with the nomination of the relatively moderate Joe Biden by the Democrats, very likely cost him enough support among swing voters in key states such as Wisconsin, Georgia, and Arizona to shift those states and their crucial electoral votes into the Democratic column.

I’ve sort of viewed Trump as a Frankenstein’s monster who escaped the Republican Party lab and rampaged beyond their control, but if this theory is true, politically speaking, it was the monster who was ill-served by the mad scientists. They drove him further right than the tiny portion of the electorate that counts in America could bear.

Interesting theory, and if true, it might have implications for a certain goobernatorial person here in Florida who aspires to be the next angry Circus Peanut. What do y’all think?

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Thursday Morning Open Thread: Looking Good

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Senator Whitehouse Is Surprised By Something He Should Not Be Surprised About: That the Secondary Kavanaugh Background Investigation Was Rigged

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Germy, in the comments to Mistermix’s post, has brought breaking, though previously known, news to our attention via Senator Whitehouse:

AFTER NEW DETAILS ON KAVANAUGH INVESTIGATION SURFACE, SENATORS CALL ON FBI FOR ANSWERS ON HANDLING OF ‘TIP LINE’

4,500 tips to FBI went uninvestigated following supplemental investigation, newly released FBI letter shows

Washington, DC – Senators Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI), Chris Coons (D-DE), Dick Durbin (D-IL), Patrick Leahy (D-VT), Richard Blumenthal (D-CT), Mazie Hirono (D-HI), and Cory Booker (D-NJ) wrote to FBI Director Christopher Wray last evening requesting additional information on the FBI’s 2018 supplemental background investigation of Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh. The senators’ request follows a letter from the Bureau to Whitehouse and Coons revealing new details on the Kavanaugh background investigation, including that the FBI gathered over 4,500 tips in relation to the investigation without any apparent further action by FBI investigators. The Bureau also confirmed that tips from the tip line were instead provided to the Trump White House Counsel’s office, where their fate is unknown.

“The admissions in your letter corroborate and explain numerous credible accounts by individuals and firms that they had contacted the FBI with information ‘highly relevant to . . . allegations’ of sexual misconduct by Justice Kavanaugh, only to be ignored,” the senators write in their letter sent today. “If the FBI was not authorized to or did not follow up on any of the tips that it received from the tip line, it is difficult to understand the point of having a tip line at all.”

Whitehouse and Coons initially raised the lackluster supplemental background investigation in a Senate Judiciary Committee hearing with Director Wray in July 2019. Whitehouse observed during the hearing the clear lack of process through which the public or members of Congress could relay information to the FBI after the troubling allegations against Kavanaugh made headlines nationwide. Coons likewise pressed Wray for a clear procedure. As both senators noted, the only conduit for information potentially relevant to the allegations was a “tip line,” the product of which was apparently never pursued by the Bureau. During the hearing, Wray echoed Republican claims that the FBI conducted the investigation “by the book,” while asserting that supplemental background investigations are less rigorous than criminal and counterintelligence investigations.

On August 1, 2019, Coons and Whitehouse wrote to Wray asking for a complete picture of how the FBI handled the supplemental background investigation of Kavanaugh. They asked why the FBI failed to contact witnesses whose names were provided to the FBI as possessing “highly relevant” information; how involved the Trump White House was in narrowing the scope of the investigation; whether the FBI had used a tip line in previous background investigations to manage incoming allegations and information regarding a nominee; and more.

Nearly two years later and after repeated follow-up requests, the FBI finally responded to Whitehouse and Coons’s questions. The June 30, 2021 letter from the FBI Office of Congressional Affairs revealed new information on the Kavanaugh investigation: that Justice Kavanaugh’s nomination “was the first time that the FBI set-up a tip line for a nominee undergoing Senate confirmation,” and that tip line received “over 4,500 tips, including phone calls and electronic submissions.” The FBI apparently pursued none of these tips. Instead, by the FBI’s own account, it merely “provided all relevant tips” to Trump’s Office of White House Counsel, the very office that had constrained and directed the limited investigation.

Whitehouse, Coons, Durbin, Leahy, Blumenthal, Hirono, and Booker call on the FBI to answer a range of outstanding questions surrounding the Bureau’s use of the tip line and the relevant information it yielded. The senators press the Bureau for any records and communications related to the tip line investigation, including “all relevant tips” described in Wray’s letter that the FBI “provided . . . to the Office of White House Counsel.”

Full text of the senators’ letter yesterday is available below. Also available as PDFs are:

• Senators’ letter sent yesterday;

• June 30 FBI letter to Whitehouse and Coons;

• Whitehouse and Coons August 2019 letter to Wray.

There’s also a long tweet thread by Senator Whitehouse:

I explained during the Kavanaugh hearings, in comments and on the front page, that what Senator Whitehouse is now rightfully angry over today was what was in fact going on. What is amazing here isn’t that Senator Whitehouse is upset, he is and should be. What is amazing here is that he seems to not understand the process that the FBI adheres to when conducting background investigations for judicial and political nominees, which, as a senator, he should know.

As I explained at the time, background investigations conducted by the FBI for judicial and political appointments are NOT criminal investigations. They are done by special agents and investigators and analysts detailed for that duty and the client is not the DOJ, nor is it the Senate committee of jurisdiction. The client for these background investigations is the White House Counsel’s Office and the White House Counsel is in ultimate charge and provides the ultimate direction of the inquiry. Only information that the White House Counsel wants released is released to the Senate committee of jurisdiction for their review. This whole secondary/reopened investigation, just like a game of chance in a casino, was rigged for the White House by the White House through the White House Counsel and his office. The FBI was only ever going to respond to Don McGahn’s instructions and work within the parameters he gave them because that’s the process.

It is important to remember that the only reason Don McGahn was first the Trump 2016 campaign counsel and then the White House Counsel is because his real boss is Mitch McConnell. Whenever Senator McConnell needs a trusted agent – to make a Federal agency dysfunctional and break it or to babysit a temperamental candidate/president – McConnell places McGahn into that position. McGahn controlled this secondary, supplementary investigation into Kavanaugh, just as he controlled the first one, not anyone at the FBI or the DOJ. And McGahn controlled it for McConnell. My guess is McConnell was thrilled when Senator Flake came to him with this compromise proposal for a secondary FBI investigation because it allowed McConnell to play Flake for the chump he is while getting what he wanted – Kavanaugh confirmed and the ability to leverage the contentious confirmation process for political gain – all while allowing it to seem that a rigged game was really an honest process.

No one who was paying attention should be surprised at all at what happened then or at what is being reported now. Not least a Democratic senator. That seven members of the Senate Judiciary Committee do not seem to understand the process for FBI background investigations for judicial and political nominees, including who controls them, is a bit concerning. They’re right to be asking for details and Senate Judiciary Committee investigation now, but it would have been better if they all had known how the process works and been hammering this over and over and over again during the confirmation. Especially Senator Coons who is the one who cut the deal with Senator Flake for the supplemental FBI background investigation.

If these seven senators did not realize this was how the process for FBI background investigations into judicial and political nominees until today, then, quite frankly, shame on them. This process is neither a state secret that is highly classified and compartmented, nor is it rocket science. It was reported on and commented on in real time. And it was their job to know and act on that knowledge. If they knew and didn’t act then, then shame on them. If they didn’t know until now, it’s still shame on them. While I doubt it would have made much of a difference, it was their job to know and to act on that knowledge, which they didn’t. They failed then and are angry now. The time to have been angry was then, because it might have prevented failure.

The reason that Senator McConnell and his caucus have been embarrassing Democratic senators and frustrating their, as well as Democratic president’s, efforts since January 2009 is that Senator McConnell pays attention to every possible process that could be useful to him or could be used against him. Senate Democrats are not going to beat him if they are constantly surprised by how the government they are supposed to be overseeing as part of their jobs works.

DO BETTER SENATE DEMOCRATS!

Edited to add:

I realize this is most likely performative surprise. It would have been nice if there’d been some performative surprise at the time when it might have made even a little bit of difference.

Open thread!

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The Wilderness of Mirrors & The Guardian’s Scoop Regarding Putin’s & Russia’s Planning To Make Trump President: It Is Almost Certainly Disinformation & Agitprop, But It May Still Be True

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Several of you asked in comments yesterday morning what I thought about The Guardian‘s big scoop based on purported leaked Kremlin documents from January 2016 that supposedly reveal the formal planning by Putin and his intelligence and nat-sec leadership to make Trump president. As I was typing this up last night, Cheryl was doing her post and we agreed that I’d just finish drafting mine and save it for later as we are in almost complete agreement about The Guardian‘s reporting.

Since it’s now later, I figured I’d freshen it a wee bit and hit publish. Everything up to the Updated on 16 July at 2:00 PM EDT was written yesterday.

My initial response as a comment yesterday was:

This is certainly disinformation agitprop, in that what leaked is accurate in its contents, but not the real thing. Which allows Putin to both finally take credit for the op he’s been running informally since 2014 and formally since 2016 and also further that operations objectives of sowing socio-political discord in the US.

To clarify and be more specific, this is almost certainly disinformation and agitprop. While it is also most likely accurate in the contents in terms of the underlying facts of 2016 – as in Putin did have a preference for Trump and was utilizing his resources to elevate his candidacy and his chances – there is no way that this leaked Kremlin document is legitimately documenting whatever planning was going on in 2016.

The reporting in The Guardian Luke Harding, Julian Borger, and Dan Sabbagh is interesting, but… The report that the document:

“No 32-04 \ vd” – is classified as secret.

I have a lot of trouble believing that it wasn’t classified, according to the classification that the Kremlin uses, at the equivalent of what we would refer to as a fully compartmented classification at the highest level of classification.

Another issue I have is they don’t post the entire document, only two screen grabs extracts. Nor do they indicate the chain of transmission to them. They sort of intimate or suggest they got it from a western intelligence source, but the way they write the article, it could also be inferred it came from a Kremlin source.

One thing that is clear, is that if a western intelligence agency, one of our Five Eyes partners or one of our other intelligence partners, has had this for a while, they certainly did not share it with the US prior to, at least, late 2019. As both Matt Tait aka Pwn All The Things and Marcy Wheeler note.

I would also like to know which, if any, other major news organizations were offered this and refused to run it because they couldn’t vet it to their satisfaction.

Finally, Ivan Tchakev, who is the economics editor at RBC and writes as an expert at Riddle, is asserting that language errors indicate this is most certainly a forgery.

Since I don’t speak Russian other than the names of some foods, some place names, several curses, and the names of hockey players and some authors, composers, and dancers, I asked our own in house Russian language and Russian studies subject matter expert about Tchakev’s analysis and got this reply:

I don’t think you can really draw conclusions based on a linguistic analysis. Bureaucratic language is terrible everywhere, including in Russia.

Based on the language, it kind of looks fake to me but I could not swear to that in court! I’m not all that familiar with these kinds of documents. I just get a whiff of somebody playacting.

So hopefully everything is now clear as mud!

Updated at 2:00 PM EDT on 16 July 2021:

Marcy Wheeler makes the excellent, and if you’ve been following along as Cheryl and I have covered this stuff here and as Wheeler and others have covered it on their sites and feeds, obvious point that Putin’s active measures and low intensity political warfare operation precedes January 2016.

Click across and read the whole thread.

As we’ve discussed here numerous times, we can actually see the disinformation and agitprop operation begin in the spring of 2014. It was at this point in May of 2014 that the first story intended to dirty up potential presidential candidates was placed in Russian state news RIA Novosti. That disinformation and agitprop drop was targeted at President Biden, Ambassador Kerry, and Vice President Cheney by targeting their children as engaged in unethical and potentially illegal activities in Ukraine and other places. All three of them were being touted in 2014 as potential presidential candidates for 2016, though none of them ultimately ran.

The Jade Helm conspiracy theory of 2015, intended to stir up discontent among Texas against both the Obama administration and US Special Operations Forces, was also part of Russia’s active measures campaign. It was tied to Russia’s promotion of the Texas secessionist movement during President Obama’s second term, as well as support for a variety of American neo-NAZI and white supremacist groups. The plot to infiltrate and influence the National Rifle Association actually begins even father back. Torshin attended his first NRA national convention in 2012 and by 2014 he had Maria Butina in place and active in the US. Similarly, Russia has targeted the National Prayer Breakfast for years as a line of entry into the Republican Party and conservative organizations. Russia has also targeted a number of American evangelical groups. One of the key players in this is Jay Sekulow, who just happened to be Trump’s personal attorney for the Mueller investigation and both impeachments. This much coincidence takes a lot of work. The idea that suddenly, in January 2016, Putin convenes the equivalent of a National Security Council Principal’s meeting to plan and coordinate efforts in his active measures and low intensity political war against the US just doesn’t line up.

As I wrote yesterday, what I want to know now is where the document came from, which, if any of our ally’s intelligence services had it and provided it to The Guardian‘s reporting team. Or, if it wasn’t provided, what’s the chain of transmission in it leaking to them. And I want to see the whole document, with the appropriate redactions that would be necessary to protect anyone who leaked it out. Without all of that, this is interesting. It rings true. But it is clearly disinformation and agitprop intended to further wreak havoc on American society and politics.

Open thread!

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Your Mellow, I Am Here To Harsh It: The Agreed To 6th January Commission Is Not Worth the Paper the Agreement Was Announced On

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Everybody is champing at the bit for the 6th January investigative commission announced last week to get to work. Even Liz Cheney is stating unequivocally that one of the key people they need to subpoena and interview is House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy.

Speaking to ABC News’ This Week in an interview to be broadcast on Sunday, Cheney said McCarthy “absolutely should” testify before any commission, and that she “wouldn’t be surprised if he were subpoenaed”.

Congressman Thompson who negotiated the agreement for the commission has his sights on even bigger prizes:

None of this, not one little bit, is ever going to actually happen. I’m not even sure the commission will happen as that will require both the House and the Senate to move at least a resolution through both chambers to establish it. But even if it does get established, provided it is established on the agreement reached last week between Congressman Thompson, the Chair of the House Homeland Security Committee and Congressman Katko, the committee’s ranking chair. The devil, as they say, is in the details.

From the fact sheet released by Congressman Thompson (emphasis mine):

Key features of the Commission:

  • The Commission will be charged with (1) investigating and reporting upon the facts and causes of the January 6th attack on the Capitol as well as the influencing factors that may have provoked the attack on our democracy; (2) examining and evaluating evidence developed by relevant Federal, State, and local governments, in a manner that is respectful of ongoing investigations, regarding the facts and circumstances of the attack; (3) building upon other investigations regarding the attack and targeted violence and domestic terrorism related to such attack; and (4) reporting to the President and Congress regarding its findings, conclusions, and recommendations for corrective measures taken to prevent future acts of targeted violence and domestic terrorism, including against American democratic institutions, improve the security posture of the United States Capitol Complex in a manner that preserves the accessibility of the Capitol Complex for all Americans, and strengthen the security and resilience of nation and American democratic institutions against domestic terrorism.
  • Like the 9/11 Commission, the measure establishes a 10-person bipartisan commission with five commissioners, including the Chair, appointed by the Speaker of the House and the Majority Leader of the Senate and five commissioners, including the Vice Chair, appointed by the Minority Leaders of the House and Senate.
  • Commissioners must have significant expertise in the areas of law enforcement, civil rights, civil liberties, privacy, intelligence, and cybersecurity. Current government officers or employees are prohibited from appointment.
  • Like the 9/11 Commission, the Commission will be granted authority to issue subpoenas to secure information to carry out its investigation but only upon agreement between the Chair and the Vice Chair or a vote by a majority of Commission members.
  • The Commission will be required to issue a final report with findings regarding the facts and causes of the attack, along with recommendations to prevent future attacks on our democratic institutions, by December 31, 2021.

Currently, Congressman McCarthy is trying to tap dance around the fact that he authorized Congressman Katko to negotiate this agreement and, amazingly enough, Congressman Thompson agreed to McCarthy’s stipulations because the agreement appears to have wrong footed McCarthy with Trump, his caucus, and the base of the Republican Party. It is important to remember that McCarthy is not a particularly smart man. Rather, he’s simply outlasted everyone but Steve Scalise in terms of seniority and if Scalise can shiv McCarthy over this, he will! And it isn’t clear if what was agreed to would even pass just on Democratic only majorities in each chamber without significant revision, but let’s say the agreement holds up. If it does, you’ve got a dysfunctional committee that is structured to do nothing but obstruct itself.

The committee will be bipartisan and will have ten members, five selected by the Democratic leadership of Speaker Pelosi and Senator Schumer and five selected by Congressman McCarthy and Senator McConnell. And while it will have subpoena power, subpoenas can only be issued if either the Democratic appointed chair and the Republican appointed ranking member/vice chair agree or if a majority of the commissioners vote to issue one. And this is where everything breaks down.

Ordinarily, the Republicans go to play on something like this would be for Senator McConnell to place his trusted agent and catspaw on the commission: Don McGahn. McGahn, even if he wasn’t the ranking member/vice chair, would be there to organize and ensure complete Republican opposition to everything. This is how McGahn was used by McConnell to break the Federal Election Commission (FEC), but because of McGahn being placed by McConnell on Trump’s 2016 campaign as the lead campaign counsel and then as the White House Counsel for the first several years of the Trump administration, he’s not going to be usable for this assignment. Instead, Senator McConnell and Congressman McCarthy will simply pick other Republican legal operatives with the appropriate experience who can be counted on to gum up the works. I expect to see former NJ governor Chris Christie’s name floated for ranking member/vice chair. Same with former Congressman Trey Gowdy’s. It would not surprise me if McCarthy goes back to the same well of ratfuckers that Congressman Nunes has been using for several years – Kash Patel, Michael Ellison, and LTC (ret) Derek Harvey – as potential Republican appointees, especially as most of McConnell’s proteges have now been packed onto the Federal courts.

Regardless, because the agreement establishes an equal number of Democratic and Republican appointees and gives veto power over subpoenas to the Republican ranking member/vice chair, if this commission does actually get created with these parameters, then nothing of any import or value will be done. It will serve as a rhetorical tool for Republicans and conservative movement leaders, who it is important to recognize are still involved in the ongoing insurrection against the Constitution and constitutional order that boiled over into explicit violence on 6 January and may very well do so again, to state that they are taking this seriously because they voted to establish a toothless and ineffective commission to look into it.

Congressman Thompson is a sharp guy. And Speaker Pelosi is almost always five steps ahead of her Republican colleagues. But if there is some grand strategy here, I’m not seeing it. Best case scenario from this agreement is a dysfunctional committee with only six months to do anything and that produces nothing of value when what we need is a real truth and reconciliation commission led by someone of impeccable and unimpeachable character that takes as long as it needs to get to the truth in order to hold people and organizations to account so there can be reconciliation. Worst case scenario is it falls apart because the resolutions that would establish it can’t get through both chambers of Congress and once that happens everyone decides the lift is too heavy and the juice isn’t worth the squeeze.

Have a happy Monday!

Pooh, Piglet, Monday

Open thread!

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The Answer To Charlie Pierce’s Question Was Answered Before He Asked It

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This morning The New York Times reported a story on the rise of Hispanic Republicans in the Rio Grande Valley with a special focus on the Latina women who are leading the rise. Charlie Pierce, from his shebeen at Esquire caught the crazy that was clearly visible from orbit:

So the story ably tracks a genuine political phenomenon, and certainly one that’s worth watching going forward. But this is 2021, and these are Republicans, and sooner or later, there’s a serious bustle in the hedgerow.

Elisa Rivera, 40, said she had voted for Mrs. Clinton in 2016, but did not understand the fierce reaction against Mr. Trump. “I was following along the family tradition, my dad is a hard-core Democrat, my father was really for unions, and I thought the Democrats defended the union,” Ms. Rivera said, before adding: “But then I started to research myself and found out the Democrats are supporting witchcraft and child trafficking and things like that, things that get censored because they get labeled conspiracy theory.”

He then concludes with:

If you think the Republicans won’t weaponize this thinking, and if you think it won’t work, I have a couple of first-term members of Congress I’d like you to meet. It’s just so damned exhausting.

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