I Must Part Ways With Nancy Pelosi

If the report is true that Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi is insisting on ousting Trump in the 2020 election and then prosecuting him, and it looks like it is, I must give up my defense of Pelosi’s strategy.

I’ve thought that she was waiting for support to build to some unspecified level that she, an adept counter of votes, had in mind. There were indications of what we’ve learned tonight, but politicians say many things in many ways.

Pelosi seems to be ignoring the damage that Trump is doing as President. The difficulties in investigating him and his administration that would be lessened in impeachment proceedings. The public education that would take place during impeachment hearings and the support that would build. The strong desire among many Democrats to see a rebuke of the administration’s lawlessness.

I am horrendously disappointed that she is taking a path that is consistent with many criticisms of “establishment” Democrats – that they are unwilling to wield the power they possess to do their lawful jobs.

I’m willing to look at evidence that I’m wrong. But I’m not seeing it.


2020 Election Thread: The DNC’s Random Draw

When it gets Chuck Todd excited, you know it’s not good for the Democrats:

A new rule adopted by the Democratic National Committee and NBC News will evenly divide top-tier candidates across two nights in the first Democratic presidential primary debates in June, a move to maintain viewer interest in both events by making sure well-known contenders are on stage both nights.

Democrats getting at least 2 percent support in the polling average will be randomly and evenly split between the two nights, which will each feature 10 candidates, according to the formula obtained by POLITICO. Candidates below that threshold will also be evenly and randomly divided between the two debate lineups…

Eight candidates have a polling average at or above 2 percent right now: Joe Biden, Cory Booker, Pete Buttigieg, Kamala Harris, Amy Klobuchar, Beto O’Rourke, Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren. With the newly announced rule, four would be guaranteed to appear on the first night, and four would be guaranteed to appear on the second night.

Biden and Sanders, currently occupying first and second place in most polls, will still have a close to 50-50 chance of appearing on the same night — about the same odds they would have under a purely random draw that does not break the field into two groups.

According to a POLITICO analysis, 19 candidates have qualified for the first debates on June 26-27 in Miami: Biden, Booker, Steve Bullock, Buttigieg, Julián Castro, John Delaney, Tulsi Gabbard, Kirsten Gillibrand, Harris, John Hickenlooper, Jay Inslee, Klobuchar, O’Rourke, Tim Ryan, Sanders, Eric Swalwell, Warren, Marianne Williamson and Andrew Yang.

Thirteen of those candidates — Biden, Booker, Buttigieg, Castro, Gabbard, Harris, Inslee, Klobuchar, O’Rourke, Sanders, Warren, Williamson and Yang — have crossed both thresholds, virtually guaranteeing them a spot in one of the two nights…

So both Wednesday and Thursday will feature four potential candidates, plus five or six randomly chosen no-hopers, wannabes, and publicity hounds. No wonder Chuckles is fondling his facial hair in glee at the prospect. (And Murphy the Trickster God forbid that Biden, Buttigieg, O’Rourke and Sanders all draw the Wednesday spot.) Were I in charge, no candidate who couldn’t poll at least 2% would be permitted in the auditorium, much less on the stage.

Of course, this rigamarole was put into place mostly to placate one noisy group of (theoretically) Democratic voters, so of course they are pleased with the due attention paid to their complaints. Suuuure they are:

I know going from “angry young rebel” to “aging old crank” is common enough to be a trope, but there are few examples as stark as that of Matt Taibbi. Unless you include Taibbi’s inspiration here, but as far as I can tell, that dude was an aging old crank by the time he was old enough to decamp from Brooklyn to Chicago (before fleeing to Vermont).

Florida Gubernatorial Primary: The Morning After

I voted for Gwen Graham in yesterday’s primary. My husband voted for Andrew Gillum, who won in an upset that, in hindsight, we should have seen coming.

Levine and Graham split what might be called the center-left vote, and two billionaire vanity candidates sucked up 14% or so of the Democratic votes. In that context, Gillum’s win isn’t that much of a shocker.

I am not a moderate, so why did I go with the more centrist candidate? Fear, to be honest. As I’ve said ad nauseum, Florida is a microcosm of America, with coastal liberal enclaves and a red interior. Read more

Keep Hating Yourself

From my inbox:

WASHINGTON – Today, the Democratic National Committee announced moderators for the DNC’s Future Forum series, which will feature candidates for DNC Chair and other DNC offices.
The third DNC Future Forum, which will take place in Detroit, Michigan, on Saturday, February 4 at Wayne State University Community Arts Auditorium, will be moderated by Ron Fournier of Crain’s Detroit Business.

A Democratic party that has anything to do with Ron Fucking Fournier after his years of trolling, bitching and whining about every goddam thing that the Obama administration did, not to mention his role as GWB’s chief toady in the media, is a Democratic Party that isn’t ready to win an election.

I’m so fucking disgusted I can’t write another god damned word.

Update: Zach was fucking right.

Bayh Humbug

This is intriguing especially as it moved a reach race into a toss-up race for Democrats.

I was just looking at the 2018 Senate Map and it is not as fugly as I thought it had been. There are five red state Democratically held seats up (Montana, North Dakota, Missouri, Indiana, and West Virginia) and a few swing state seats (Florida, Ohio, Virginia) that would be vulnerable in a lean Republican year. An unexpected seat in Indiana from 2016 would be a nice cushion.

Secondly, what do we know about Bayh — he is an opportunist, a weather vane, and conventional wisdom Very Serious Person. And those are his good qualities.

If he is willing to jump into a race that should be an uphill climb in a neutral environment, the opportunist as a concurrent indicator means things are looking good in November.