"We're not there yet." Fauci says most of U.S. will not be ready by May 1 to reopen and that the long briefings are "really draining." He adds: "If I had been able to just make a few comments and then go to work, that would have really been much better." https://t.co/liyfRM7Sft
— Josh Dawsey (@jdawsey1) April 14, 2020
Tens of thousands dined at a mass banquet in Wuhan – nearly a week after Beijing ordered secret pandemic preparations but failed to warn the public, documents show. The delay came at a critical time. https://t.co/33rafoSniO
— The Associated Press (@AP) April 15, 2020
More than 2 million coronavirus cases have been confirmed globally, less than two weeks after they hit 1 million. https://t.co/EtwK0Z1WSf
— CNET (@CNET) April 15, 2020
#UPDATE US records 2,228 virus deaths over the past 24 hours.
The number is a sharp increase after two days in decline, and beat a previous high of 2,108 on April 10.
The outbreak has now claimed at least 25,757 lives in the US
? A mural by artist HIJACK in Los Angeles pic.twitter.com/sXq4zzr97t
— AFP news agency (@AFP) April 15, 2020
NIH’s lead scientist for coronavirus vaccine research Kizzmekia Corbett lays out the government’s race to create a vaccine, saying they could be on track to have a vaccine from sequence to the general population within 8 months. https://t.co/FtacDLY6rn pic.twitter.com/hlE34Wz64I
— Anderson Cooper 360° (@AC360) April 15, 2020
Nope nope nope nope https://t.co/83tDIm3GOz
— Beth Ponsot (@bponsot) April 14, 2020
… Lifting social-distancing measures all at once could risk simply delaying the epidemic’s peak and potentially making it more severe, the scientists warned in an article published Tuesday in the journal Science.
The course of the pandemic will depend on questions not yet answered: Will the virus’s spread change with the seasons? What immunity will people have after they’re infected? And does exposure to coronaviruses that cause mild illnesses confer any protection against the pathogen that causes Covid-19?
The course of the pandemic will depend on questions not yet answered: Will the virus’s spread change with the seasons? What immunity will people have after they’re infected? And does exposure to coronaviruses that cause mild illnesses confer any protection against the pathogen that causes Covid-19?
Those questions are being weighed by government leaders who have seen economies around the globe come to a standstill because of the social-distancing measures. With millions of people out of work and staying home, pressure is growing to loosen restrictions in the U.S. and elsewhere. Doing so, experts have said, will depend on having in place measures to control the disease, such as widespread testing.
The Harvard researchers used computer models to simulate how the pandemic might play out. One possibility is that strict social distancing followed by intensive public-health detective work could chase down and eradicate the virus. That’s what happened with SARS-CoV-1, which caused a 2003 outbreak. But with confirmed cases of the new pathogen approaching 2 million globally, that outcome is seen as increasingly unlikely, the researchers wrote.
More likely is that the virus is here to stay like influenza, traveling the globe seasonally. In one model, 20 weeks of measures to limit spread were followed by an epidemic peak that was as great as an uncontrolled spread.
“The social distancing was so effective that virtually no population immunity was built,” the researchers said of that scenario. If the virus is more transmissible in colder months, delaying the peak into the autumn could exacerbate the strain on health-care systems, they wrote.
To avoid such outcomes, on-and-off social distancing measures might be needed until 2022, unless hospital capacity is increased, or effective vaccines or treatments are developed.
The authors don’t endorse a particular path forward but said they sought “to identify likely trajectories of the epidemic under alternative approaches.”
Another link to the Science article:
Tough news: #COVID19 projected out to 2025 in USA: "Here, we examined a range of #SARSCoV2 transmission scenarios through 2025…If immunity to SARS-CoV-2 wanes in the same manner as related #coronaviruses recurrent wintertime outbreaks are likely to occur in coming years." https://t.co/QfaZqTFncW
— Laurie Garrett (@Laurie_Garrett) April 14, 2020
COVID-19 Coronavirus Update – Tuesday / Wednesday, April 14/15Post + Comments (39)