The mathematical models are not the only way to make sense of the progress of the pandemic. Raw numbers can tell us a lot too. This is my favorite “how are we doing” set of charts. They can display active cases, confirmed cases, new cases/day, deaths, deaths/day, and recovered, for countries or US states and territories, in linear or log scale, raw or normalized for population. And now they have data by counties, too. Sometimes I just take a quick look, other times, I look for a specific place or parameter, or just more detail. The data come from the Johns Hopkins coronavirus project.
The US is ahead of most countries in confirmed cases (noon, April 8),
while New Mexico is in the lower half of the pack. I’ve chosen a raw plot and a normalized plot, to show you what’s available.
The Johns Hopkins dashboard is also a good place to get a quick look at the numbers. Again, you can drill down in various ways.
Kevin Drum is posting numbers of deaths for seven European countries, the United States, and Canada. His source is the Johns Hopkins data. It’s another way to get a quick status report. Here is the April 8 report.
There are other compilations of data. I recommend that you choose the one you like and stick with it. They have different ways of collecting the data, so switching back and forth may be confusing.
I should say here that all of the data are wrong. All have limitations, all are subject to their own types of error. It’s more important to look at trends than specific numbers.
Here’s a simple explanation of models, a little different than what I’ve been saying. Courtesy of one of our jackals, I think.
Cross-posted at Nuclear Diner