GOP Elite delegitamization; Obamacare Edition

This is a good example of the process of how the Republican base has come to like Trump so much. Their elites either don’t know what they are talking about or are lying to them, repeatedly.

Scott Gottlieb is supposed to be a medium size deal in the conservative health wonk community. He was one of the ten “wonks” who came up with the most recent Republican repeal and maybe replace plan.   He has the sinecures and the titles to be a valued source of trusted information to conservatives.  However, either he does not understand what he is talking about or he is actively misleading his audience. He started this string with the following tweet:

That is a very strong claim that is diametrically opposed to reality. The risk pool is getting younger. We can’t say for sure that a younger risk pool is a healthier/cheaper risk pool, but it is extraordinarily likely that this is the case.

Local conservative opinion leaders will get a false signal from Gottlieb that the Exchanges are death spiraling.  They have been getting those signals from conservative “wonks” and “policy” opinion leaders for five years now.  Sooner or later dreaded Obamacare will collapse under its own weight and 10 million people (as you know those Chicago crooks are cooking the books, so it can’t be 17 million people) will have the freedom to choose health savings accounts or freedom.

And next year, when Obamacare does not collapse in on itself like a neutron star of fail, the same opinion leaders and expert validaters will trot out the same story.

The Republican base has been promised a lot and their party can’t deliver on those goals.  The elites don’t have legitimacy because their bullshit has been marked to market so new entries with new, creatively destructive forms of bullshit have a niches that they can fill and a willing mass audience that wants to believe that this time the new guy can deliver on their promises while ignoring the elites who have no credibility.

Wednesday Morning Open Thread: Ripe to Rot

jeb bush punkd by steve harvey handelsman

(Walt Handelsman via GoComics.com)
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While the mature thing would be to deplore the gross distortion of our national polity by the vast funds of special interests, I’ll admit it gives me pleasure to read that JEB! has been flushing his backers’ funds down such a gaping rathole. Per Mark Murray at NBC:

As the year comes to a close, ad spending so far in the 2016 election has topped $111 million, and a third of that amount has come from Jeb Bush and his allies, according to ad-tracking data from SMG Delta.

By comparison, $35 million had been spent on TV and radio ads at this same point in time in the 2012 presidential race – with Mitt Romney and his allies (at $8.5 million) and pro-Obama forces (at $7.4 million) being the biggest spenders by the end of 2011.

But in this current election cycle, Jeb Bush’s Super PAC, Right to Rise, is the No. 1 spender, having aired $37 million in TV ads, while the campaign has chipped in an additional $1 million.

Put it another way: Bush and his allies have spent more in ad money so far in the 2016 presidential race ($38 million) than all of the ad money at this point in the 2012 cycle ($35 million)…

And he still can’t climb back into the double digits!

Old scars force me to admit that, yes, it is not actually impossible that the “establishment GOP” will find some way to force Third Time’s No Charm to the top of the 2016 ticket. And gods know the most likely Repub replacements (Rubio, Cruz, DTrumpf) are individually and collectively unfit to run a small-town general store, much less a nation of 300 million. But I’m still enjoying the thought of how unpleasant Christmas dinner at the Kennebunk estate is liable to be this year.
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Speaking of seasonal festivities, what’s on the agenda for this hump-iest of Hump Days?

Huckleberry Hounded Out

Sen. Lindsey Graham is smart enough to take his Christmas vacation early, it seems.

Republican South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham is dropping out of the presidential race.

“While we have run a campaign that has made a real difference, I have concluded this is not my time,” he said in a statement Monday

Graham, who first told CNN of his decision in an interview, faced the deadline Monday to be removed from the ballot in his home state of South Carolina. Graham has been mired at the bottom of polls – both nationally and in his home state – and could have faced an embarrassing showing in the state’s February primary.

The hawkish South Carolina senator had been the Republican field’s most vociferous early critic of Donald Trump.

Which is true, and being the “Hey guys, Trump is goddamn crazy on immigration and Muslims but let’s send tens of thousands of US troops into Syria” candidate got him a whopping 0% at the polls and seriously threatening to break the crucial 1% mark.

I’m thinking since we’re in effectively in election news dump mode until January, we’re going to see a few folks drop out over the next week or two anyway.

Time to catch up on your Netflix queue, man.

Open Thread: Meanwhile, In Mockable Carrion-Feeder News…

Bad news for Dr. Carson. There’s been previous speculation as to whether the candidate was, to put it delicately, in the hands of “professionals” whose first priorities might not be identical to his own interests. Last month, the Atlantic asked, “Where Is Ben Carson’s Money Going?“:

Ben Carson is raising a ton of money. He hauled in an impressive $20.8 million in the third quarter, shocking the political world and topping the Republican field in fundraising. That comes after a strong second quarter, when he raised more than $10 million.

But Carson is also spending a ton of money—he spent nearly seven out of every $10 he raised in the quarter. What is that money being used to do, and is that rate of spending sustainable?…

In Carson’s case, a majority of what he’s raising is being plowed right back into fundraising costs—$11.2 million of the nearly $20.8 million. That means 54 cents out of every dollar Carson raises is going to raise more money…

Many strategists say direct mail is an important part of a diversified strategy. Other operatives, though, when discussing the Carson campaign, use words like “grifters” or “unconscionable.” They complain that Carson’s fundraisers appear to be reaping small-dollar donations from atypical donors and true believers while doing little with that money to build the infrastructure to win the nomination. For the majority of analysts who still consider Carson a very long shot to win the nomination, anyway, there appears to be no big downside for the candidate. But what about the earnest folks writing the checks?…

They’re suckers with money, is what — a scent which inevitably attracts the big-money scammers, per Bloomberg Politics:

Republican strategist Karl Rove helped set up a meeting between top fundraisers for Ben Carson and casino mogul Steve Wynn.

Rove confirmed to Bloomberg Politics that he acted as the go-between for the Carson camp and Wynn, a sometimes business competitor of Donald Trump, the rival Carson has been batting all fall for the Republican nomination…

The mastermind of George W. Bush’s presidential victories in 2000 and 2004, Rove has not signed on with any of the presidential candidates this year, though he says he has dispensed advice to a number who have asked. Trump’s camp is viewing the effort to help the billionaire real estate mogul’s chief rival as an attack on the front-runner…

Rove’s role in setting up the meeting between Wynn and Carson advisers raised some eyebrows within Carson’s political orbit, with some advisers questioning Rove’s intentions, said one source familiar with the meeting and the campaign.

The source said they were skeptical that Rove was only acting to inflate Carson in an effort to ultimately take out Trump. “Karl Rove isn’t just going just to help Ben Carson out of the goodness of his heart,” the source said…

Yeah, the Carson handlers get Rove’s somewhat outdated ‘rolodex’ — and Rove gets the Carson mailing list of fresh marks. Rove hasn’t exactly been front and center on the publicity trail since his Election Night 2012 public meltdown. Come to think, that’s something he and Donald Trump share: having been made to look stupid, on air, by Megyn Kelly.

The War Of The Wallet

Charlie Pierce gets right down to what America can do and should be doing about the actual bad guys behind last night’s attacks in Paris.

It is long past time for the oligarchies of the Gulf states to stop paying protection to the men in the suicide belts. Their societies are stunted and parasitic. The main job of the elites there is to find enough foreign workers to ensla…er…indenture to do all the real work. The example of Qatar and the interesting business plan through which that country is building the facilities for the 2022 World Cup is instructive here. Roughly the same labor-management relationship exists for the people who clean the hotel rooms and who serve the drinks. In Qatar, for people who come from elsewhere to work, passports have been known to disappear into thin air. These are the societies that profit from terrible and tangled web of causation and violence that played out on the streets of Paris. These are the people who buy their safety with the blood of innocents far away.

It’s not like this is any kind of secret. In 2010, thanks to WikiLeaks, we learned that the State Department, under the direction of then-Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton, knew full well where the money for foreign terrorism came from. It came from countries and not from a faith. It came from sovereign states and not from an organized religion. It came from politicians and dictators, not from clerics, at least not directly. It was paid to maintain a political and social order, not to promulgate a religious revival or to launch a religious war. Religion was the fuel, the ammonium nitrate and the diesel fuel. Authoritarian oligarchy built the bomb. As long as people are dying in Paris, nobody important is dying in Doha or Riyadh.

It’s time for this to stop. It’s time to be pitiless against the bankers and against the people who invest in murder to assure their own survival in power. Assets from these states should be frozen, all over the west. Money trails should be followed, wherever they lead. People should go to jail, in every country in the world. It should be done state-to-state. Stop funding the murder of our citizens and you can have your money back. Maybe. If we’re satisfied that you’ll stop doing it. And, it goes without saying, but we’ll say it anyway – not another bullet will be sold to you, let alone advanced warplanes, until this act gets cleaned up to our satisfaction. If that endangers your political position back home, that’s your problem, not ours. You are no longer trusted allies. Complain, and your diplomats will be going home. Complain more loudly, and your diplomats will be investigated and, if necessary, detained. Retaliate, and you do not want to know what will happen, but it will done with cold, reasoned and, yes, pitiless calculation. It will not be a blind punch. You will not see it coming. It will not be an attack on your faith. It will be an attack on how you conduct your business as sovereign states in a world full of sovereign states.

The time to stop pretending that Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States are our buddies is over.  I’m extremely okay with this plan, frankly.

Doctor, Doctor, Can’t You See I’m Burning, Burning

The problem with so many GOP presidential candidates in low single-digits is that occasionally one of them crawls out of the muck when America forgets why they were down there in the first place.  I wonder how long Ben Carson will be leading in Iowa when the elderly FOX News crowd gets wind of the fact he wants to abolish their Medicare.

Carson, who now leads the GOP field in Iowa according to the latest Quinnipiac Poll, would eliminate the program that provides health care to 49 million senior citizens, as well as Medicaid, and replace it with a system of cradle-to-grave savings accounts which would be funded with $2,000 a year in government contributions. While rivals have been pummeled for proposing less radical changes, Carson hasn’t faced the same scrutiny — and his continued traction in polls has left GOP strategists and conservative health care wonks scratching their heads.

“This isn’t a borderline issue. The politics of this are horrific,” said Doug Holtz-Eakin, head of the American Action Forum and health care adviser to Sen. John McCain’s 2008 presidential campaign.

Carson’s stance on the third-rail issue of Medicare is especially risky given his strength among elderly voters. In Iowa, Carson draws a quarter of the senior vote — more than double any other candidate except Donald Trump, with whom he’s statistically tied among seniors. Carson’s support is even higher among voters between the ages of 55 and 64, who are on the verge of Medicare eligibility. He draws 34 percent of that age group, double Trump’s level of support, according to the Quinnipiac poll.

Carson’s GOP rivals are largely holding their fire so far. Trump’s campaign declined to comment, as did the campaigns of Jeb Bush, Ted Cruz, Carly Fiorina and Marco Rubio. A spokeswoman for Bobby Jindal noted the Louisiana governor’s support for reforming — but preserving — Medicare and Medicaid.

“Without change, they will go bankrupt,” said the spokeswoman, Shannon Dirmann. “Abolishing them is bad policy.”

The answer of course is a combination of our Village betters have been letting Carson get away with it, and that nobody took him seriously enough to read the fine print.  Carson doesn’t call it Medicare or Medicaid, he calls it “traditional health care”.  He’s had this plan for more than a year now, but he’s gotten very, very good at selling it while not talking about it.

Now that he’s a threat in the GOP race to possibly win something maybe, the Village has suddenly re-discovered his plan to replace Medicare and Medicaid with medical savings accounts that wouldn’t cover the cost of more than one lifetime hospital visit and wouldn’t keep up with medical cost inflation.

We’ll see how much traction this gets, but I’m betting it’s not going to hurt him as much as people think.  He’s had this position for over a year now, folks.  Hasn’t hurt him so far.  It’s been a stated position that he’s confirmed again and again and people just stopped asking him about it, which means of course the low-info sub-genius crowd had no chance of knowing.

Granted, in a world where journalism wasn’t run by the Chuck Todd/Jake Tapper/Luke Russert crowd, Carson’s actual policy positions would be irrelevant, because his toxic Islamophobia and astonishing lack of knowledge would have him laughed off the national stage in minutes, but for some reason, he’s still there and millions of people want him to be our next president.

And if it’s because “people didn’t know about Carson” then maybe we should ask why that is.