Must Have Been The Brown Acid…

ETA: Given Betty’s post immediately below, this should settle any last doubts that this blog is not a member of any organized political party…(a gazillion quatloos to all those (many here) who nod to the illustrious forebear who put that opening to such good use).  I’ll leave this one up for the Rose-Mary Woods photo, which is worth the price of admission. But Betty got there first in all the relevant detail, so that’s where I’m heading for the fun of the discussion.)

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…the flashbacks seem so real.

At 8:32 this morning, the usurper occupying the Oval Office tweeted this:

I have several reactions.

First, this:

(For all you kids out there, that’s Nixon’s secretary, Rose Mary Woods, demonstrating how she managed to “accidentally” create an eighteen minute gap in the Oval Office tapes, perfectly placed to eliminate some very interesting discussion of Watergate matters.)*

Second: A question for the legal minds here:  Bob Bauer has an interesting piece over at the Lawfare Blog assessing where Trump has reached on the obstruction of justice spectrum, clearly written before the shitgibbon released the tweet at the top of this post.  He argues (as I, a non-lawyer, read him) that there is an emerging fact pattern consistent with obstruction, but further focused inquiry would be needed to generate an actual case.  So, does this new tweet, explicitly threatening a potential witness in such an obstruction, advance the argument that the president is engaged in an actual, legally-jeopardizing attempt at obstruction?

Third: “Subpoena” has such a lovely ring to it, doesn’t it.  I shouldn’t still be surprised, but I am: how dumb do you have to be to announce the possibility of evidence that one had no prior reason to suspect might exist?  This tweet from Garry Kasparov is so spot on:

And with that, it’s back to the 18th century for me! (Isaac Newton, musing on the virtues of government debt…)  Have at it, y’all.

*Ancient tech nerd that I am, I am totally grooving on the IBM Selectric there. What fabulous machines… ETA: So — you can retire my tech-nerd creds. That’s not a Selectric. Ahh well….

 



Republican Youth Outreach Continues

And what is it with this Beyonce and Jay Z, amirite? This hip-hop stuff. I don’t get it:

walkingandtalking

In his defense, this is kind of how I feel about speedwalking. I mean, are they walking? Are they running? What’s going on with it?



Risk Adjustment:Vox::Narrow Networks:538

There are two recent health policy articles by interested lay expertise sites that have me scratching my head. In Vox’s case, I am seeing a conclusion without context. For 538, I can not figure out the model that leads to a core assumption. These sites’ jobs are to inform the public and in these cases I think they can do a better job of their job.

Let’s start with Vox as Sarah Kliff looks at a Society of Actuaries analysis of risk scores on the individual market. She draws a very strong conclusion.

Between 2014 and 2015, SOA finds that Obamacare’s average risk scores went up by 5 percent. This means that the overall pool of people on the marketplace were sicker in 2015 than 2014. You can see the data here, in a table from the report.

The Society of Actuaries draws a much weaker conclusion

Risk measures published in the CCIIO release show that the average measure of risk increased from 2014 to 2015. Increased risk scores may be a combination of identification through better coding as well as a measure of the actual population health….

The program is still too immature to draw conclusive inferences about the future of the pool or marketplaces.

Vox saw a number that went up (bad) and wrote a story with no context.
Read more



Overnight/Early Morning Open Thread

England Prevails! Or not. The Invisible Hand is weighing in now.

 



Further Airing of the Grievances

So, Bernie Sanders gave a speech last night. We’ve been talking about it. I’m sure some of y’all are sick of the entire discussion, which is fine — lots of other interesting threads below, or, if your scroll is sticky, there’s sure to be another up top soon.

But I’m one of those annoying assholes who believe the only way to work through a conflict is to get everything on the table. (The four scariest words in my family are “we need to talk…”)

It’s not that I enjoy picking at scabs (well, maybe a little). It’s that only in this way can we come together and move forward. Or decide that each other are irredeemable morons upon whom we should not bother to waste another pixel and look for other allies instead. Either outcome is progress! Read more



Friday Morning Open Thread: Now Every Day Is April Fool’s Day!

gop obama appreciation conspiracy luckovich

(Mike Luckovich via GoComics.com)
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Yes, once again we’re going to have to grit our teeth and ‘celebrate’ the favorite holiday for twelve-year-old boys of all ages and genders. While we wait for the Blogmaster to post his favorites, here’s the Washington Post with some “terrible history of this garbage holiday”:

… How did we get into this mess? We asked Alex Boese, curator of the online Museum of Hoaxes. He says you can blame the Dutch (who first referenced April Fools’ in a 16th-century text) or the French (who overhauled their annual calendar in the 1500s, confusing “fools” who didn’t adapt). Or maybe the U.K., home of the first April Fools’ Day prank on record, or Germany, which popularized fake April Fools’ news stories. And certainly the good ol’ U.S.A. — because who else would be tickled by the idea of renaming a national monument the “Taco Liberty Bell?”…

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While we brace ourselves — how the hell can you tell a Trump or Cruz hoax from the real thing, not to mention anything coming from Reince Priebus? — what’s on the agenda as we wrap up the week?



Open Thread: Well, It’s A Worthy Cause

When I first saw this on the twitter feeds yesterday, I assumed it was a photoshopped image, but The Hill is profoundly anti-japery.

And it’s probably because I’m old — I grew up in the Bronx, and left at the height of the ‘Fort Apache’ days — but as a hashtag #TheBronxIsBerning is so.very.NO.