A very good question. I’ve been thinking about writing a post for a while, but there is a long backstory and what is happening now is not at all clear.
Belarus just had a contested election. Alexander Lukashenka, who has been president since the breakup of the Soviet Union and an official before that, was seriously challenged by Svetlana Tikhanovskaya. Lukashenka claimed victory with 80% of the vote. Unofficial polls suggest it may have been the other way around. I’ll let Olya Oliker explain. This is the best short explanation I’ve seen.
Watching the protests and strikes across Belarus this week has been heart-breaking, inspiring, terrifying, and surprising. And I’m pretty sure that whether this episode ends in triumph or tragedy (and for whom), it is crucially important. A thread 1/15
— Olya Oliker (@OlyaOliker) August 14, 2020
It’s been quite a while since Belarus had a vote that most folks didn’t agree was rigged. So no one was surprised this time around that candidates couldn’t register and were arrested, OSCE monitoring invites didn’t go out til too late, etc. 3/15
— Olya Oliker (@OlyaOliker) August 14, 2020
Conventional wisdom (yeah, I know) had long held that the people of Belarus knowingly traded electoral choices and freedom of speech for political and economic stability. And maybe they had. But if so, wow, have a lot of them changed their minds this week. 5/15
— Olya Oliker (@OlyaOliker) August 14, 2020
And then there’s the geostrategic angle, or rather lack thereof: The protests aren’t a Russia vs. the West thing. It’s Lukashenka, not his opposition, who’d been reaching out to Western capitals, hoping to weaken Moscow’s leverage over his govt 7/15
— Olya Oliker (@OlyaOliker) August 14, 2020
But neither the public nor what there is of the Belarus opposition is looking for NATO or EU membership. Many have ties to Russia. It seems that after 26 years, they just want choices. Maybe a president who doesn’t pooh-pooh a killer virus? Stuff like that. 9/15
— Olya Oliker (@OlyaOliker) August 14, 2020
Can Lukahsenka hold on? We’ve seen some of his security forces, govt officials turn on him. But I wouldn’t bet on an Armenia scenario. Possible, but unlikely. My guess: If he leaves, it will be because Moscow pressures him to. No one else has that kind of leverage 11/15
— Olya Oliker (@OlyaOliker) August 14, 2020
Extra points if they do it in concert with neighbors like Lithuania as well as other European powers like France and Germany. Quite the contrast from the Russian/Belarus war game scenario of Belarus protests starting a NATO-Russia war 13/15
— Olya Oliker (@OlyaOliker) August 14, 2020
Most importantly, do look for a way out that respects the dignity of the people of Belarus and doesn’t make them pawns in someone else’s game. 15/15
— Olya Oliker (@OlyaOliker) August 14, 2020
Large demonstrations have been going on across the country since the weekend. Some of the police response has been horrendously brutal. Several people have died.
But there is also some friendly police response, with police simply walking away.
Some photos and videos:
another good photo of the crowds marching through Minsk today. (photo by @svaboda) pic.twitter.com/l8OC80DKem
— Mike Eckel (@Mike_Eckel) August 14, 2020
Strange (and good) things are happening in Belarus. Apparently these guys were spotted moving towards Independence Square in Minsk where thousands rallied against police brutality and for fair elections… and then these vehicles just left.
Just like that. No crackdown (for now) pic.twitter.com/h3RK7MM5ph
— Допросите Галадриэль ❤✊✌#NotOurTsar (@Mortis_Banned) August 14, 2020
❕❗️❕The sheer scope of people vs the police at the Parliament right now in #Minsk #Belaurs pic.twitter.com/lLMg5Zyz63
— Belarus Free Theatre (@BFreeTheatre) August 14, 2020
Rallies are taking place in Hrodna, Salihorsk, Viciebsk. The largest companies are on strike. pic.twitter.com/aQNpflPr3C
— Franak Viačorka (@franakviacorka) August 14, 2020
❗️The head of the European Parliament delegation for relations with Belarus @RobertBiedron was not allowed to enter Belarus. No explanations. pic.twitter.com/LnEOjYcrwf
— Franak Viačorka (@franakviacorka) August 14, 2020
⚡️Lukashenka: Do not go out to the streets now. They use you and our children as cannon fodder! Many people came here from Poland, Netherlands, Ukraine, Open Russia, Navalny, and so on. The aggression has already begun against the country." pic.twitter.com/IT5Fc53r93
— Franak Viačorka (@franakviacorka) August 14, 2020
Vladimir Putin is being cautious. He must be extremely alarmed at the prospect of losing his man in Belarus, but on the other hand, Lukashenka has defied Putin on a number of things, including refusing to allow Russian airbases in Belarus.
It’s not at all clear how this will turn out.
Update: More from Shaun Walker in The Guardian.
Open thread!