As the winter campaign in Ukraine begins, the strategic failures in DC, Brussels, and the capitols of Europe are becoming a major problem.
NATO General Secretary @jensstoltenberg: we must be ready for bad news, too. This is a war of attrition, battle for effectiveness, battle for logistics. Increasing ammunition production plays a decisive role. The more we support Ukraine, the sooner this war will end.
We must… pic.twitter.com/oGdRZsRw73
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) December 3, 2023
NATO General Secretary @jensstoltenberg: we must be ready for bad news, too. This is a war of attrition, battle for effectiveness, battle for logistics. Increasing ammunition production plays a decisive role. The more we support Ukraine, the sooner this war will end.
We must understand that the victory of president Putin will become a tragedy for Ukraine but it will be dangerous for us, as well.
This is an estimate based on observation of facts on the ground. But it seems a fair-minded exercise to assume it is accurate and, on that basis, to ask the White House the following questions:
– Why were only ~ 20 missiles transferred?
– What is the current reasoning regarding… https://t.co/XxZfJ6ghCi— Edward Hunter Christie (@EHunterChristie) December 3, 2023
This is an estimate based on observation of facts on the ground. But it seems a fair-minded exercise to assume it is accurate and, on that basis, to ask the White House the following questions:
– Why were only ~ 20 missiles transferred?
– What is the current reasoning regarding possible further deliveries?
– What about the longer-range, more recent version of the ATACMS? Why has USG not seen fit to transfer those to Ukraine so far?
👍👍👍Ex-head of the CIA Petrius analyzes why there was no breakthrough in the Ukrainian counteroffensive.
We have seen our delays in providing military equipment to Ukraine, our tanks have only recently reached them.
➡️Our delay in making decisions about the M1 (Abrams),… pic.twitter.com/GjkI8NCA2f
— Jürgen Nauditt 🇩🇪🇺🇦 (@jurgen_nauditt) December 3, 2023
👍👍👍Ex-head of the CIA Petrius analyzes why there was no breakthrough in the Ukrainian counteroffensive.
We have seen our delays in providing military equipment to Ukraine, our tanks have only recently reached them.
➡️Our delay in making decisions about the M1 (Abrams),
➡️delays with the approval of Leopard tanks,
➡️we delayed decisions on cluster munitions, which could have been very useful,
➡️missile systems with a longer radius of action for rocket systems of salvo fire,
➡️and finally, Western-style airplanesRetired General David Petraeus lists these factors as to why this year’s counteroffensive failed.
🟢 “Our military doctrine says that in order to break through the types of defenses that we saw in the south (and I don’t think anyone really realized or appreciated the depth of the minefields, and that Russia did a very good defensive part, several lines of defense, etc. ), our doctrine says that this requires air superiority as well as many other capabilities. And we didn’t give it to the Ukrainians”, – David Petraeus in an interview with “Voice of America”
P.S. He is absolutely right.
Error detected – then make it better from now on.
Begin with #ATACMSforUkraine and #TaurusForUkraine
The White House doesn’t want Ukraine to win. The question is why. Since they won’t say, the answer is something they are ashamed of and/or would suffer for politically. So I believe they are still trying to make deals with Russia and Iran instead of defeating them. https://t.co/q9UNqAGOlY
— Garry Kasparov (@Kasparov63) December 3, 2023
From The Financial Times:
EU leaders risk leaving Ukraine empty-handed at a perilous moment in its war against Russia as divisions over finances threaten a €50bn lifeline for Kyiv and Hungary vows to thwart its EU membership talks.
Disputes within the EU over money and Ukraine’s future are endangering crucial pledges to Kyiv made months ago — just when the flow of US financial and military support for Ukraine has abruptly stalled in a politically divided Congress.
EU member states are far from reaching a deal over topping up the bloc’s joint budget — including €50bn for Ukraine — ahead of a summit in Brussels on December 14-15, said officials involved in the discussions.
EU efforts to reach a compromise are being hampered by the victory of a far-right party in last month’s Dutch election and a recent German court ruling curbing the government’s borrowing. A budget agreement would be “very, very difficult”, a senior official said.
Meanwhile, the Biden administration’s proposed $60bn package is struggling to pass through Congress.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán on Friday again vowed to veto the start of Ukraine’s EU membership talks, telling public radio it was “contrary to the interests of several member states” and accession might only be possible “many years from now”.
“We are in a good enough shape to dare say so, no matter the pressure we come under,” he said.
A failure to approve long-term funding, a separate €20bn facility for weapons purchases and the start of accession negotiations would be a hammer blow to Kyiv after the failure of its summer counteroffensive and growing concern about faltering western support. Olha Stefanishyna, Ukraine’s deputy prime minister, last week described the EU summit as an “existential moment” for her country.
“It is crucial that the continued support for Ukraine remains and that we Europeans play our role,” Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo told the Financial Times.
Ukraine has warned that the uncertainty over US and European support packages is putting the country’s “macro-financial stability” at risk. The €50bn proposed by the EU is designed to keep Kyiv solvent to 2027.
“It is a moment of truth,” said an EU official. “If you say you stand by Ukraine, you have to step up to the plate.”
Germany and other states have vowed to give Brussels no additional funds beyond that required for Kyiv, while others are demanding extra cash for domestically sensitive issues such as migration.
Orbán also opposes the funding package. EU officials note that he has relented on Ukraine decisions before and are trying to assess whether he has a price for his support, including the release of some of the €22bn in EU funds blocked by Brussels over rule of law concerns.
EU officials last week indicated that the European Commission was close to unblocking up to €10bn for Budapest, as reforms enacted earlier this year had strengthened judicial independence.
However, Hungarian officials insist there is no link between Ukraine and the funds issue, and EU officials and diplomats say that this time the Hungarian leader seems more implacable.
“There’s a lot of fog that needs to be lifted in the next weeks. And today there’s so much fog that I don’t see very far away what’s coming,” said De Croo.
More at the link!
The Ukrainians are not going to stop fighting, but if they lose this war, if Putin’s genocidal ambitions are achieved, leading to the rest of Europe being threatened, that loss will lay at the feet of the Biden administration and the US Congress, the European Union, and the EU member states. The Ukrainians are not going to give up, but until or unless the senior people in DC, Brussels, and the capitols of the EU member states get their heads in the game, not giving up is not going to be enough.
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.