(Image by NEIVANMADE)
I want to return to a topic that pops up every so often in regard to Ukraine’s defense against Russia’s genocidal re-invasion, but that is in the news again because of the Israel-Hamas war: ceasfire. Specifically, what does a ceasefire actually mean in reality and practice.
A couple of days ago several hundred congressional staffers, including both Jewish and Muslim staffers, called for the US to impose a ceasefire on on Israel and Hamas. Congresswoman Ocasio-Cortez was pressed on this issue on CNN’s Newsnight two days ago as well. That video is below and it should be queued up to play at the beginning of that segment.
I’m not including it to make fun of Congresswoman Ocasio-Cortez or use her as a strawwoman, but as you can see in the interview she spends about three minutes trying to externally process an answer. It is not surprising that she was unable to do so. This is not her area of expertise as a legislator. However, I would have expected her staff to have had better prepped her.
A cease-fire is an agreement that regulates the cessation of all military activity for a given length of time in a given area. It may be declared unilaterally, or it may be negotiated between parties to a conflict.
I think the first thing we need to identify is that a lot of people are using ceasefire and armistice interchangeably. From the same source:
The term armistice is sometimes used, although it has a slightly different meaning: an armistice is a military convention, the primary purpose of which is to suspend hostilities over the whole theater of war, usually for an indefinite period of time. An armistice or a cease-fire does not represent an end to hostilities, only a truce (a temporary suspension of hostilities). Furthermore, they do not reflect a juridical end to the state of war.
Regardless of which one is meant, the question, whether for Ukraine or Israel or the Gazans, is what does a ceasefire actually mean in practice. We have discussed several times that a ceasefire or armistice in the Ukraine-Russia war only rewards Putin. It freezes the conflict allowing Russia to maintain control over the parts of Ukraine that it is already illegally occupying while providing it with strategic time to refresh, refit, and rearm. In the case of the Israel-Hamas war it does not really do anything in regard to the fact that Israel is the internationally recognized occupation authority/occupier of the Palestinian territories of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, despite having pulled out of Gaza in 2005.
It would, however, freeze the conflict. And in this case that means that Hamas will sill be holding an officially indeterminate number of Israelis and non-Israelis hostage. I’ve seen reporting from reliable sources that the total number could be between 200 and 400 and that’s not including the corpses of those they killed that they also brought back to Gaza. It also rewards Hamas for the attack. Specifically, it teaches Hamas, and similar violent extremist organizations – what we used to call terrorist groups – both foreign and domestic, that if they undertake a large enough and successful enough operation that they can get away with it because everyone is afraid the response will be so out of proportion that it is better to just stop any response.
This is not a call for Israel to flatten Gaza and bounce the rubble. Rather it is the realization that in war, whether interstate or low intensity, prematurely imposing a ceasefire or armistice may actually be adding further harm and injury to the aggrieved party. This is certainly the case in regard to trying to force a ceasefire onto Ukraine and get them to the negotiating table ASAP. It is also the case in regard to the Israel-Hamas war. Yair Rosenberg asks the right questions in regard to this issue:
The lack of a substantive alternative for deterring Hamas from engaging in mass violence again is why exchanges like this are so unsatisfying. It's the missing piece. pic.twitter.com/RVDHTL6z8f
— Yair Rosenberg (@Yair_Rosenberg) October 18, 2023
Ceasefires and armistices sound great in practice. No one of good conscience on either side of any war want civilian populations not party to the conflict to be harmed. But prematurely imposing a ceasefire or armistice simply rewards the initiator of the specific conflict. And yes, the Palestinians have lots of reasons to revolt, but that’s not what the 7 OCT 2023 attack was. This is not the third intifadeh. Rather, it was an attack by Hamas on both military and civilian targets. Just watch this interview of Khaled Mashal, Hamas’s external leader, by an excellent al Arabiya anchor and it will tell you everything you need to know about the attack from Hamas’s perspective:
NEW TV interview with Khaled Mashal, Hamas’s external leader.
Mashal is based in Qatar.
Summary of interview:
Says Hamas’s terrorism is “legitimate resistance”
Says sacrifices have to be made by nations when trying to liberate themselves. Points to 30 million Russians… pic.twitter.com/sOI0XU2O94
— Yashar Ali 🐘 (@yashar) October 20, 2023
And keep this bit of context in mind: Hamas pumped their fighters up with captagon, an amphetamine type of stimulant, allowed the extremists to carry out their attacks on civilians calmly and indifferently.
The civilians targeted by Hamas are as unjustifiable targets as when the Israelis bulldoze a Palestinians home. And that is why if you’re going to call for a ceasefire or an armistice you have to be able to clearly articulate what it means in practice and application and why it isn’t rewarding one party to the conflict disproportionately to the other in a way that rewards the aggression and teaches others that they too can undertake something like this and get away with it.
President Zelenskyy’s daily address and the English transcript will both be after the jump.
War for Ukraine Day 604: What Does a Ceasefire Mean?Post + Comments (83)