Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

We are builders in a constant struggle with destroyers. let’s win this.

Damn right I heard that as a threat.

Wow, you are pre-disappointed. How surprising.

Americans barely caring about Afghanistan is so last month.

It’s always darkest before the other shoe drops.

Let me eat cake. The rest of you could stand to lose some weight, frankly.

If you tweet it in all caps, that makes it true!

Reality always wins in the end.

But frankly mr. cole, I’ll be happier when you get back to telling us to go fuck ourselves.

Historically it was a little unusual for the president to be an incoherent babbling moron.

We are aware of all internet traditions.

I swear, each month of 2020 will have its own history degree.

Good luck with your asparagus.

I’d try pessimism, but it probably wouldn’t work.

A snarling mass of vitriolic jackals

Our job is not to persuade republicans but to defeat them.

This blog will pay for itself.

Whoever he was, that guy was nuts.

The revolution will be supervised.

A sufficient plurality of insane, greedy people can tank any democratic system ever devised, apparently.

Technically true, but collectively nonsense

Perhaps you mistook them for somebody who gives a damn.

If senate republicans had any shame, they’d die of it.

Infrastructure week. at last.

You are here: Home / Archives for Foreign Affairs / Countries / Iran

Iran

Government By Competent People

by | 76 Comments

This post is in: , , ,

One of the things that bugged me about TFG’s interactions with other countries – I can’t call it foreign policy because there was no policy – was there was no subtlety, no pattern, nothing intellectual. There was nothing to analyze beyond “This is bad, we shouldn’t do it.”

Some tried, of course. Large numbers of reporters tried to pretend there was something strategic in Jared’s schmoozing with his bloody Saudi friend. If there was, it had to do with money for himself and his father in law.

But Joe Biden! And Antony Blinken! And Wendy Sherman! Ah, there are people who think several moves ahead. I’ve been enjoying a transcript of a briefing by a Senior Administration Official. To those of us who follow such things, it’s obviously Rob Malley, special representative to the talks with Iran.

And message discipline! Oh my, not just with regard to foreign policy, but all across the government. But the briefing transcript has it, in spades. The administration is saying nothing about the specifics of the talks. They are taking a firm line as to what the US wants out of the talks, but they are not being so specific as to trap themselves as the talks progress.

Some things are quite specific, though. Where the administration has been taciturn about the progress of the talks (We are making some progress, but we are far from a complete agreement), the Iranians have tried to project optimism and sometimes more. There was a leak about a possible prisoner exchange. Malley swats that one down, hard.

It’s a lovely study of a person who knows what he’s doing and is doing it well. I am grateful.

Open thread!

Government By Competent PeoplePost + Comments (76)

The Real Purpose of the Leak of the Zarif Interview Tape: Dirty Up John Kerry

by | 110 Comments

This post is in: , , , , , , , , , , ,

Cole asked what the takeaways are from The New York Times reporting on a leaked tape of an interview with Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif. As I put in a comment in that post, there are four. I’m going to copy and paste them below, but then I want to really focus on the fourth one because I think that’s the real tell.

  1. There are three possible leakers of the tape: Israel, Russia, or Iran’s Quds Force. All three don’t want the nuclear deal back on the table for different reasons, though some of them overlap. In the case of Israel, Bibi is desperate to maintain a foreign threat that only he can safely lead Israel against. And he definitely does not want Iran to be incentivized to open up to the west, which will have profound impacts on Iranian society, economy, and ultimately politics. Without Iran, Israel has no foreign threat for Bibi to rail against as an existential problem that requires his experienced leadership to survive. Russia doesn’t want the deal because it also doesn’t want an Iran incentivized to come in from the cold in order to get out from under sanctions. Doing so would open up Iran, which would have profound impacts on Iranian society, economy, and ultimately politics. An isolated Iran needs Russia. The Quds Force is working this angle from the other direction – internal to Iran instead of external. Anything that potentially empowers the more moderate reformist elements, that potentially leads to a relaxation of sanctions, that potentially leads to Iranians actually being able to interact with Americans and Europeans on a more regular basis weakens the Quds Force. Because if real, legitimate political reform ever comes to Iran, it has to come at the expense of the Quds Force.
  2. While all of these three have means, motive, and opportunity to have gotten the audio and leaked it, the leak was done to make it harder to reach a deal to get Iran either back into the JCPOA or into a new, revised version of it.
  3. If Israel is the leaker on this, the Quds Force and the other elements of Iranian security and intelligence are fully puckered right now. Being able to get hands on to this indicates a level of Israeli intelligence penetration into Iranian elite circles that is beyond what we know and suspect based on reporting.
  4. Someone really wants to dirty up John Kerry. Given that Putin has been working this angle, as I’ve covered here repeatedly on the front pages, since May 2014 when the initial agitprop plant of misinformation was placed in RIA Novosti against Biden, Kerry, and Cheney, via attacks on their children, because all were being discussed as possibly running for president in 2016. Is this an indicator that Russia is the leaker? I don’t know. I just find it curious that Russia has previously tried to ensure that Kerry looks bad, so this might be a two birds, one stone type of thing. Especially as Putin does not want to see any action on climate change because of his own strategy to leverage its effects to the benefit of Russia. And yes, I know, that strategy is stupid and its objectives are not achievable.

This is the specific portion of The New York Times reporting dealing with Secretary Kerry:

Former Secretary of State John Kerry informed him that Israel had attacked Iranian interests in Syria at least 200 times, to his astonishment, Mr. Zarif said.

While it follows a section about how the US, presumably US intelligence, knew about the Quds Force’s reprisal strike on US forces stationed at the Balad Air Base in Iraq before the Quds Force informed Zarif, the sentence about Kerry just sticks out like a very out of place sore thumb. It is completely out of context and contextless. Did Kerry do this when he was Secretary of State, pursuant to a strategy of confidence building with Zarif around the JCPOA negotiations that was deconflicted and cleared with the Director of National Intelligence and Director of Central Intelligence or was this Kerry just shooting the breeze with Zarif sometime after the change of administration between January 2017 and January 2021? We don’t know because the reporter, in his reporting, doesn’t provide us any context.

There has been a concerted effort by Putin, via his active measures campaign, to dirty up very specific American politicians who he believes are or would be detrimental to his interests. Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, John Kerry, and Dick Cheney. As I wrote way back in November of 2019, Putin first planted the agitprop about Hunter Biden in a Russian state backed news outlet- RIA Novosti – as part of a black PSYOP strategy to launder the misinformation through legitimate, or perceived to be legitimate outlets, to dirty up potential presidential candidates. You’ll notice the three names in the highlighted portion below: Biden, Cheney, Kerry in the question from the RIA-Novosti reporter to a peace activist no one has ever heard of outside of the people that read his blog.

RIA_Novosti

And right on time, the usual people in the US bit on what seems to be a singular contextless throw away sentence about Secretary Kerry. All of these below, with the exception of the two Brad Moss tweets and the Stefanik tweet courtesy of commenter Jim, Foolish Literalist, are from just doing a keyword search for “John Kerry” using Twitter’s search function. There are dozens and dozens I’m not including here so as to not gunk up the front page, but this is now on fire in Republican and conservative political, news, and social media circles. The Daily Wire, that’s Shapiro’s agitprop outfit, has picked it up, which means it is now all over Facebook where he’s got dozens of sock puppets pushing his garbage into everybody’s feeds, so the real purpose of this leak in terms of US politics, policy, and strategy is completely successful.

Here’s the link to the search if you want to copy and paste it and see for yourself: https://twitter.com/search?q=john%20kerry&src=typed_query

Current Trump spokesman:

Former Trump spokesman:

The National Review:

Amazingly enough Fox News almost gets it right:

By Fox almost gets it right, I mean that they recognize that the real news in the reporting about the leaked tape is this one out of place, contextless sentence about John Kerry. It is a bombshell because it was intended to be a bombshell. It is a piece of contextless information placed in the middle of an article about an oral history interview given by Iran’s foreign minister that largely confirmed what all of us who actually pay attention to Iran for professional reasons already know. And we already know it largely because of open source reporting, not even anything classified. I can think of over three dozen news reports about Israel striking Iranian targets in Syria without expanding much effort. So this isn’t exactly a state secret in the US, Israel, or Iran.

And this brings us back to the real purpose of the leak. A lot of people are going to focus in on it undermining Zarif and the other members of his reformist party in the civilian facade government ahead of Iranian elections. Others will focus on it undermining attempts by the Biden administration to either get Iran back into the JCPOA or into a new, revised JCPOA. But the Quds Force attempting to prevent that, let alone Bibi or Putin attempting to prevent it, are also not a state secret. The only thing Bibi hasn’t done to tell everyone that’s one of his objectives is host a 24 hour global telethon with that as the theme like Jerry Lewis used to do for MDA every year.

The real purpose of the leak was to get that one, contextless sentence about John Kerry into the reporting. It sticks out like a sore thumb visible from space because it is supposed to stick out like a sore thumb visible from space! The objective here is two fold. The first is to undermine Kerry, who is currently the Special Envoy for Climate Change so that he has to either step down or be fired. That really won’t stop the Biden administration’s efforts on climate change as President Biden will just appoint someone else. The second is to damage President Biden and his administration. So far nothing, and I do mean nothing, has been able to stick. Nothing about Hunter Biden has stuck. Major Biden’s nipping didn’t stick. President Biden has dementia and is being manipulated by VP Harris hasn’t stuck. President Biden is a tool of the Chinese Communist Party, which is the term now doing business for Republicans and conservatives for the People’s Republic of China and everything to do with the People’s Republic of China which is scary because it’s communist, ooga booga! So now, it is going to be all about how President Biden failed to vet John Kerry properly before appointing him the Special Envoy for Climate Change. John Kerry is clearly working for the Iranian government, there’s collusion, we HAVE COLLUSION, IT’s IRANIAN COLLUSION WITH THE DEMOCRATS!!!!! And, finally, can we really say that President Biden didn’t know all the time and that he’s not also, secretly colluding with Iran?

That’s the real news here. This was a hit job on John Kerry, and through John Kerry on President Biden and his administration, masquerading as a leaked oral history interview. That one, contextless, seemingly throw away sentence about John Kerry was the whole point. A perfectly executed black PSYOP. And everyone in Republican politics, the conservative movement, and conservative news, digital, and social media is going to hammer it until they can’t get any further use for it. You all thought Senator Cotton was obnoxious for stating he was holding up all US Attorney appointments, you ain’t seen nothing yet. Just watch, he’ll be holding up all the nat-sec nominations as a result of this too.

Open thread!

The Real Purpose of the Leak of the Zarif Interview Tape: Dirty Up John KerryPost + Comments (110)

The Office of the Director of National Intelligence Has Released Its 2020 Election Assessment & the Executive Summary of Its 2021 Domestic Violent Extremism Assessment

by | 73 Comments

This post is in: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

I had originally planned on covering the Office of the Director of National Intelligence’s (ODNI) assessment of Foreign Threats To the 2020 US Federal Elections on Tuesday night, but decided we needed something on the then just happened domestic terrorist attack in Atlanta. Yesterday, ODNI also released the executive summary from a recently completed threat assessment into domestic violent extremism. Given that the two assessments overlap in a key finding, I’ve decided to basically deal with them in one post. Especially because the assessment on foreign threats to the 2020 elections basically tracks with everything we covered here between my Black PSYOP series of posts beginning in October 2019 and Cheryl’s posts on the topic here and at her Nuclear Diner. In other words, between Cheryl and I, you all were getting pretty close to the same assessment that ODNI has put together. On behalf of Cheryl: we demand a raise!!!!  

You can click across and read the whole assessment for yourself, but here’s the key findings:

The Office of the Director of National Intelligence Has Released Its 2020 Election Assessment & the Executive Summary of Its 2021 Domestic Violent Extremism Assessment

You’ll notice that Key Judgement’s 2, 3, and 4 all track with what we’ve been discussing here since October 2019. In the Black PSYOP 1 and 2 posts we covered what misinformation and agitprop was being laundered, by whom, and why. Including this lovely little item dated May 2014, which I misdated to April 2014 in the post:

Anyone surprised by these findings, such as self declared information warfare expert Thomas Rid, quite simply, didn’t want to know about them because they had their own agendas. Specifically downplaying that anything that has actually been happening since at least 2014 if not 2011 in terms of Russian information warfare was actually happening. He’s suddenly surprised because he’s spent the past several years writing, publishing, and defending a book on information warfare that essentially denies it is actually occurring.

We also covered what Rudy Giuliani, Chanel Rian, and OAN News were doing to mule this Russian misinformation and agitprop to Trump, his surrogates in the House and the Senate, in the conservative movement, and in the conservative news media. As well as what Senators Johnson, Grassley, and Graham were doing with that material in the Black PSYOP Part X. And while it was reported at the time, in July 2020, we now have confirmation directly from Democratic members of Congress that Congressman Nunes received this fabricated material directly from Andreii Derkach. As in the Democrats actually have the delivery receipt!

The executive summary of the ODNI’s report on domestic violent extremism brings us to the overlap. Here are the findings:

(U) The IC assesses that domestic violent extremists (DVEs) who are motivated by a range of ideologies and galvanized by recent political and societal events in the United States pose an elevated threat to the Homeland in 2021. Enduring DVE motivations pertaining to biases against minority populations and perceived government overreach will almost certainly continue to drive DVE radicalization and mobilization to violence. Newer sociopolitical developments—such as narratives of fraud in the recent general election, the emboldening impact of the violent breach of the US Capitol, conditions related to the COVID-19 pandemic, and conspiracy theories promoting violence—will almost certainly spur some DVEs to try to engage in violence this year.

(U) The IC assesses that lone offenders or small cells of DVEs adhering to a diverse set of violent extremist ideologies are more likely to carry out violent attacks in the Homeland than organizations that allegedly advocate a DVE ideology. DVE attackers often radicalize independently by consuming violent extremist material online and mobilize without direction from a violent extremist organization, making detection and disruption difficult.

(U) The IC assesses that racially or ethnically motivated violent extremists (RMVEs) and militia violent extremists (MVEs) present the most lethal DVE threats, with RMVEs most likely to conduct mass-casualty attacks against civilians and MVEs typically targeting law enforcement and government personnel and facilities. The IC assesses that the MVE threat increased last year and that it will almost certainly continue to be elevated throughout 2021 because of contentious sociopolitical factors that motivate MVEs to commit violence.

(U) The IC assesses that US RMVEs who promote the superiority of the white race are the DVE actors with the most persistent and concerning transnational connections because individuals with similar ideological beliefs exist outside of the United States and these RMVEs frequently communicate with and seek to influence each other. We assess that a small number of US RMVEs have traveled abroad to network with like-minded individuals.

(U) The IC assesses that DVEs exploit a variety of popular social media platforms, smaller websites with targeted audiences, and encrypted chat applications to recruit new adherents, plan and rally support for in- person actions, and disseminate materials that contribute to radicalization and mobilization to violence.

(U) The IC assesses that several factors could increase the likelihood or lethality of DVE attacks in 2021 and beyond, including escalating support from persons in the United States or abroad, growing perceptions of government overreach related to legal or policy changes and disruptions, and high-profile attacks spurring follow-on attacks and innovations in targeting and attack tactics.

(U) DVE lone offenders will continue to pose significant detection and disruption challenges because of their capacity for independent radicalization to violence, ability to mobilize discretely, and access to firearms.

And it is the last sentence of Key Judgement 2 regarding US officials and prominent Americans promoting the Russian misinformation and agitprop against Biden that was key to Putin’s efforts to effect the 2020 election outcome and the final sentence of the first finding on domestic violent extremism –  narratives of fraud about the election, calling “patriots” and “real” American to the Capitol to stop the certification of the Electoral College votes, use of racial slurs when referring to COVID-19, etc – overlap. Because we’ve seen the same US officials and prominent Americans within the conservative movement and conservative news media promote Putin’s misinformation and agitprop and promote the conspiracy theories about the election being stolen, calling “patriots” and “real” Americans to action to do something about it, and using racial slurs to refer to COVID-19. Additionally, as in Key Judgement 2 and the fourth finding on domestic violent extremism, we see the connection to foreign actors promoting, facilitating, and encouraging Americans to act on either Russia’s misinformation and agitprop, a variety of conspiracy theories, and white Christian supremacy. It is well documented that the Russians have funded, supported, and manipulated American white supremacists, Christian supremacists, and anti-government extremists.

Do take the time to read both documents, neither is very long, and you’ll get both a real solid understanding of how the Intelligence Community understands these problem sets and an appreciation for having professional, mature leadership running the US Intelligence Community.

Open thread!

The Office of the Director of National Intelligence Has Released Its 2020 Election Assessment & the Executive Summary of Its 2021 Domestic Violent Extremism AssessmentPost + Comments (73)

Not Everything Is Russia: Oldsmar, Florida’s Water Treatment Facility Edition

by | 121 Comments

This post is in: , , , , , ,

Last Friday someone was able to access the Oldsmar, Florida water treatment facility computer system and adjust the levels of sodium hydroxide, aka lye, that would be added to the water. The Tampa Bay Times has the details:

Local and federal authorities are investigating after an attempt Friday to poison the city of Oldsmar’s water supply, Pinellas County Sheriff Bob Gualtieri said.

Someone remotely accessed a computer for the city’s water treatment system and briefly increased the amount of sodium hydroxide, also known as lye, by a factor of more than 100, Gualtieri said at a news conference Monday. The chemical is used in small amounts to control the acidity of water but it’s also a corrosive compound commonly found in household cleaning supplies such as liquid drain cleaners.

The city’s water supply was not affected. A supervisor working remotely saw the concentration being changed on his computer screen and immediately reverted it, Gualtieri said. City officials on Monday emphasized that several other safeguards are in place to prevent contaminated water from entering the water supply and said they’ve disabled the remote-access system used in the attack.

The Pinellas County Sheriff’s Office is investigating, along with the FBI and the Secret Service, Gualtieri said.

Nobody has been arrested, Gualtieri said, though investigators have some leads. They do not know why Oldsmar was targeted, he said.

Though some cities obtain water through Pinellas County, Oldsmar provides water directly to its businesses and roughly 15,000 residents, Gualtieri said. The computer system at the water treatment plant was set up to allow authorized users to remotely access it for troubleshooting.

A plant operator was monitoring the system at about 8 a.m. Friday and noticed that someone briefly accessed it. He didn’t find this unusual, Gualtieri said, because his supervisor remotely accessed the system regularly.

But at about 1:30 p.m. the same day, Gualtieri said, someone accessed the system again. This time, he said, the operator watched as someone took control of the mouse, directed it to the software that controls water treatment, worked inside it for three to five minutes and increased the amount of sodium hydroxide from 100 parts per million to 11,100 parts per million.

The attacker left the system, Gualtieri said, and the operator immediately changed the concentration back to 100 parts per million.

“At no time was there a significant adverse effect on the water being treated,” the sheriff said. “Importantly, the public was never in danger.”

Even if the operator hadn’t caught it, he said, it would have taken more than a day for the water to enter the water supply.

“The protocols that we have in place, monitoring protocols, they work — that’s the good news,” said Oldsmar Mayor Eric Seidel. “Even had they not caught them, there’s redundancies in the system that would have caught the change in the pH level.

“The important thing is to put everyone on notice,” he said. “There’s a bad actor out there.”

Much more at the link, including a profound statement by Florida’s senior senator Micro Rubio.

Malcolm Nance immediately jumped to conclusions:

These conclusions were then picked up and broadcast to everyone by Rachel Maddow on her show this evening.

I know a little something about Oldsmar, Florida. Largely because the Balloon Juice Bunker compound in the cypress scrub is adjacent to Oldsmar. For lack of a better geographic locator, since the post office refuses to recognize Balloon Juice Bunker Compound, Cypress Scrub, FL, USA as a legitimate address*, I ACTUALLY FUCKING LIVE IN OLDSMAR!!!! And I can honestly say NO ONE WHO DOESN’T LIVE IN OLDSMAR OR NORTH PINELLAS COUNTY OR WESTERN HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY OR SOUTHERN PASCO COUNTY OR KNOWS SOMEONE WHO DOES EVEN KNOWS THERE IS AN OLDSMAR, FL!!!!!!

You can sneeze across Oldsmar if the wind is blowing the right way. Oldsmar is about a dozen stoplights running north-south and east-west at the northwestern most point of Tampa Bay. It got its name because RE Olds and his family had their winter home here, which they named Oldsmar. As in Olds by the sea. Or the sea of the Olds. And given the amount of venerable elders, Olds by the sea is an appropriate name!

I could be wrong, but I would be highly surprised if this was the Russians. I’ve been working on the Russian active measures, hybrid warfare, and political warfare problem set since January 2014 when I was assigned, under temporary assigned control, as the Cultural Advisor/Senior Civilian Advisor to the Commanding General of US Army Europe. I have published, in Special Warfare**, which is the professional journal of the Special Warfare community***, about how the Russians have probed for vulnerabilities and weaknesses in order to target a variety of utilities and the systems that control them. Three years before my article was published, in May of 2016, I included this strategic concern in a briefing I gave at FT Bragg to a room full of American and allied general officers and senior staff that partially dealt with Russia and its geo-strategic and regional strategic ambitions. My professional assessment, given what we know now, is that it is highly unlikely that this is the Russians. I have also published, just last July, on political warfare, which included this concern. This isn’t something I’ve just started thinking about today, I’ve been considering the problem off and on for over seven years as part of my professional work.

There are several reasons why I doubt this was the Russians. The first is that right now Putin does not want to do anything to further stress Russian relations with the US. President Biden and his team are not Trump and his team. And President Biden has already made it clear to Putin that he is not going to tolerate Putin’s actions the way Trump did. The second is that since almost no one in most of Florida, let alone the rest of the US knows that Oldsmar existed, at least before today, that it is a very strange place for Putin’s merry band of mischief makers to target a water treatment facility.

I think it is far more likely that either a disgruntled current or former employee of the City of Oldsmar or of Pinellas County who knew that this point of access existed and exploited it for their own purposes. Or that a local mischief maker went probing for an access point, found one, and decided it was party time. We do have a small, but sizable white supremacist, neo-NAZI, and domestic right wing extremist presence in the area, so it is also possible one fo them did it. Frankly, I wouldn’t be surprised if we find out that an actual authorized user who was teleworking and on the system stepped away from their computer for a few minutes without logging out to get something to drink or use the facilities and their cat walking across the computer desk or their toddler wanting to help daddy or mommy work unintentionally reset the levels. I think the Russians attacking Oldsmar, Florida through a water treatment facility that only supplies Oldsmar is, in my professional opinion, a big stretch. Is it possible it was the Russians? Sure. Is it probable and plausible? I think it likely improbable and implausible.

We’ll know more when we know more. And I know enough about what I don’t know to state that I could be wrong.

Open thread!

* I personally blame Louis DeJoy.

** I apologize for the random capitalizations, I’m pretty sure whoever copyedited this decided these were operational terms of art and capitalized them.

*** It was nice of them to hide their professional journal in plain sight.

Not Everything Is Russia: Oldsmar, Florida’s Water Treatment Facility EditionPost + Comments (121)

A Pictorial Explanation of the Strategy Behind the Assassination In Iran

by | 117 Comments

This post is in: , , , , , , ,

Last week Bibi Netanyahu made a secret trip to Saudi Arabia to meet secretly with Mike Pompeo and Mohammed bin Salman. It didn’t stay secret for long. As the meeting was getting underway the Houthis attacked a Saudi ARAMCO facility. Which means the Iranians, who the Houthis have turned to for support, have excellent SIGINT fidelity on Bibi’s movements. Bibi should, probably, keep that in mind.

In the wake of this morning’s news, which Cheryl brought to all of our attention, we can now speculate that this morning’s operation was a likely topic of discussion at the secret Netanyahu-Pompep-bin Salman meeting.

Regardless, we need to understand the strategic reality right now that the lame duck Trump administration, as well as Bibi Netanyahu, and Mohammed bin Salman are involved in. And we can do it with pictures!

The Iranians are playing chess*:

A Pictorial Explanation of the Strategy Behind the Assassination In Iran

Bibi is this guy:

A Pictorial Explanation of the Strategy Behind the Assassination In Iran 1

And this is Trump:

A Pictorial Explanation of the Strategy Behind the Assassination In Iran 2

As a bonus, the Chinese are playing go, which, I would argue, is even harder to master than chess!

A Pictorial Explanation of the Strategy Behind the Assassination In Iran 3

The only good news is that the Iranians are smarter and better at this than Trump, Bibi, Pompeo, and bin Salman. They know Biden will be president soon. And while the Iranians may not have invented the game of chess, they’re willing to absorb the loss of a piece to win the game.

I expect we’ll eventually find out that this is the same in country team the Israelis used to kill al Masri back in July. As always, Bibi is willing to fight Iran to the last American. As I wrote back in August 2018, based on analytical work I’ve done on the issue for the Army beginning in January of 2012, going to war with Iran would be strategic malpractice and tactically stupid.

Open thread!

* Before someone starts, I am well aware that while the name for chess is derived from the Persian/Farsi word shah, meaning king, it is most likely that the game was introduced to Persia from what is now India.

A Pictorial Explanation of the Strategy Behind the Assassination In IranPost + Comments (117)

Assassination Attempt On Iran’s “Father Of Nuclear Program”

by | 145 Comments

This post is in: , ,

There has just been an assassination attempt on Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, Iran’s leading nuclear scientist. He is seen within Iran in a role much like that of Robert Oppenheimer in the United States.

Israel has assassinated other Iranian nuclear scientists and is thus the prime suspect. Bibi Netanyahu has mentioned Fakhrizadeh by name.

Israel, and the Trump administration, have been trying to break the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) so that it cannot be revived. The JCPOA froze and even pushed back Iran’s nuclear weapons program, putting it under greater international scrutiny than any nuclear program in the world.

But war with Iran is what Mike Pompeo and other Trump advisors have wanted. It is also what Netanyahu wants, as long as the losses are primarily America’s.

On top of the devastation of the Iraq War, a war with Iran would tear the Middle East apart. Those desiring war imagine that it would destroy Iran without extreme damage to themselves. Pompeo has mentioned the Rapture, which requires such a war to ensure his personal salvation.

But the warmongers have been unsuccessful in provoking Iran into leaving the JCPOA. After the US left the agreement, Iran has taken reversible steps toward a more robust nuclear program and has made clear that these are in response to US actions. The other participants in the JCPOA have held firm.

The attack on Fakhrizadeh is an enormous provocation, most likely an escalation by those who want Iran to leave the JCPOA so that there is justification for war. As usual, early reports are confused. Current tweets follow.

Update: Official sources now say Fakhrizadeh is dead.

Assassination Attempt On Iran’s “Father Of Nuclear Program”Post + Comments (145)

Trump Wanted To Bomb Iran

by | 93 Comments

This post is in: ,

Donald Trump and his toadies are trying to wreck as much as they can on the way out.

President Trump asked senior advisers in an Oval Office meeting on Thursday whether he had options to take action against Iran’s main nuclear site in the coming weeks. The meeting occurred a day after international inspectors reported a significant increase in the country’s stockpile of nuclear material, four current and former U.S. officials said on Monday. (New York Times)

This is, of course, what a number of people have been driving for in pressing Trump to break out of the nuclear agreement (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, JCPOA) and keep adding sanctions in their “maximum pressure”. They have hoped that Iran would behave in a way that would give them an excuse to bomb.

Iran, however, seems to be fine with the JCPOA and would prefer to have the US back in the agreement. What they have been doing is taking reversible steps to indicate that they have a say in this matter too. That increase in the stockpile of nuclear material can easily be given up or diluted down.

So the brilliant plans for a war haven’t been working. But hey, why not on the way out?

At the same time, Trump’s new Acting Alternative Maybe Secretary of Defense is saying words about withdrawing from Afghanistan.

What these people don’t understand is that war isn’t as action comix portray it. You need to move planes and ships and land vehicles and people to do these operations. You can’t bomb Iran tomorrow.

You could send a few missiles in, but they aren’t enough to damage Iran’s underground facilities, which most of them are now. And Iran has air defense, which might shoot down those missiles. So you might want to take out that air defense first. And that takes more planes and crews.

Likewise, you don’t just say “Withdraw the troops.” Controlled withdrawal is one of the most difficult of maneuvers. There are only a few routes for US troops in and out of Afghanistan, with many unfriendly people around. And is it really cool that there’s a good chance that a full civil war will break out if the Americans and Europeans leave? Oh yes – we might just let the Europeans know we’re leaving so they can plan.

In short, more ignorance and potentially death from the Trump clown squad. They can’t withdraw from the White House fast enough for me.

Trump Wanted To Bomb IranPost + Comments (93)