Well That Was Certainly Worth all the God Damned Fuss

So it appears the conviction and abuse of Chelsea Manning served no purpose other than to fulfill our sadistic tendencies and send a message to others, because her leaks did nothing to harm American interests:

In the seven years since WikiLeaks published the largest leak of classified documents in history, the federal government has said they caused enormous damage to national security.

But a secret, 107-page report, prepared by a Department of Defense task force and newly obtained by BuzzFeed News, tells a starkly different story: It says the disclosures were largely insignificant and did not cause any real harm to US interests.

Regarding the hundreds of thousands of Iraq-related military documents and State Department cables provided by the Army private Chelsea Manning, the report assessed “with high confidence that disclosure of the Iraq data set will have no direct personal impact on current and former U.S. leadership in Iraq.”

The report also determined that a different set of documents published the same year, relating to the US war in Afghanistan, would not result in “significant impact” to US operations. It did, however, have the potential to cause “serious damage” to “intelligence sources, informants and the Afghan population,” and US and NATO intelligence collection efforts. The most significant impact of the leaks, the report concluded, would likely be on the lives of “cooperative Afghans, Iraqis, and other foreign interlocutors.”

You can read the document here.

The leaks exposed this, which I guess we just weren’t supposed to know about.

America, fuck yeah.

The folks at LGM say this article and I are full of shit.








Who are those people

Quinnipiac has a new poll out on Trump.  I am confounded by a subset of people:

President Donald Trump did something illegal in his relationship with Russia, 31 percent of American voters say, while another 29 percent say he did something unethical, but not illegal, according to a Quinnipiac University national poll released today. The president did nothing wrong, 32 percent of voters say.

President Trump’s campaign advisors did something illegal in dealing with Russia, 40 percent of voters say, as 25 percent say they did something unethical but not illegal and 24 percent say they did nothing wrong.

The president’s job approval rating dips to a new low, a negative 34 – 57 percent, compared to a negative 37 – 55 percent in a May 24

So 60% of the public think he did something personally fishy with Russia. 65% of the public think his inner circle did something fishy with Russia. And yet only 57% of the country disapproves of his performance. So there are at least 3% of the country who think he is doing a good job and he is up to his eyeballs with Russia in at least an unethical manner. Who are those people?

Open thread…..



CMS incidentally drops the truth on monkey-wrenching

The Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services issued a technical release concerning the payment of Basic Health Plan (BHP) funds to Minnesota and New York. They accidentally dropped an official government baseline of what they expected premiums on the Qualified Health Plans to have been absent significant monkey-wrenching.

For the trend factor we will use the annual growth rate in private health insurance expenditures per enrollee from the National Health Expenditure projections, developed by the Office of the Actuary… For 2018, the projected increase in private health insurance premiums per enrollee is 5.3 percent.

States running a BHP can elect to use this multiplier against 2017 Benchmark Silver or use actual 2018 Benchmark Silver premiums. It would be wise for New York and Minnesota to use the actual 2018 premiums for their local Benchmark Silvers because their insurers are pricing in significant policy risk into their premiums so actual premiums will result in a windfall for these two states’ BHP trust funds.

What I find interesting is that the CMS Office of the Actuary analysis finds that 5.3% is a reasonable national trend rate for 2018. That would imply that rate increases based on trend plus health insurance tax plus idiosyncratic local features should have been coming in between 5% and 15% depending on local circumstances for most regions. Anything above that is odd in the counterfactual universe of no monkey-wrenching.

But we live in a universe of at least strongly feared monkey wrenching so this gives us a good baseline to estimate the monkey wrench cost.

Music below the fold:

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Monday Evening Open Thread: Angry, Dumb & Credulous

Good thing for our national self-esteem that we know he lost the popular vote, because Trump’s a perfect representative of his in-every-sense “base”:

White House chief of staff Reince Priebus issued a stern warning at a recent senior staff meeting: Quit trying to secretly slip stuff to President Donald Trump.

Just days earlier, K.T. McFarland, the deputy national security adviser, had given Trump a printout of two Time magazine covers. One, supposedly from the 1970s, warned of a coming ice age; the other, from 2008, about surviving global warming, according to four White House officials familiar with the matter.

Trump quickly got lathered up about the media’s hypocrisy. But there was a problem. The 1970s cover was fake, part of an internet hoax that’s circulated for years. Staff chased down the truth and intervened before Trump tweeted or talked publicly about it.

The episode illustrates the impossible mission of managing a White House led by an impetuous president who has resisted structure and strictures his entire adult life.

While the information stream to past commanders in chief has been tightly monitored, Trump prefers an open Oval Office with a free flow of ideas and inputs from both official and unofficial channels. And he often does not differentiate between the two. Aides sometimes slip him stories to press their advantage on policy; other times they do so to gain an edge in the seemingly endless Game of Thrones inside the West Wing.

The consequences can be tremendous, according to a half-dozen White House officials and others with direct interactions with the president. A news story tucked into Trump’s hands at the right moment can torpedo an appointment or redirect the president’s entire agenda. Current and former Trump officials say Trump can react volcanically to negative press clips, especially those with damaging leaks, becoming engrossed in finding out where they originated…

Sounds like Reince may be looking for the escape hatch. (And I suspect Michael Steele is lifting a glass of Baileys in his memory, cereal garnish optional.)

Speaking of people who aren’t qualified for the jobs they occupy, remember all those Very Serious Pundits who assured us that Trump’s “inexperience” didn’t matter, because he was gonna surround himself with quality advisors?…



Yates testimony open thread

Former Acting US Attorney General Sally Yates is due to testify at 2:30 PM EST on many things including what she told the Trump Administration about how the Russians had their hooks in deep (allegedly of course) into their National Security Adviser.

Open thread….

Here is the live stream:



Trust Issues

Here is the United Airlines video of them dragging a paying passenger off the plane as they did not want to spend more than $800 to correct for their own mistake in overbooking the flight:

And here is the police statement:

And people wonder why there is a trust issue with police.



Trump Administration Reverses Course; Supports Massive Funding Increase For Performance Art

A sidelight on yesterday’s Tomahawk raid on a Syrian airbase.

1:  Fifty-nine Tomahawks fired.

2: Targetting:  “The targets included air defenses, aircraft, hangars and fuel.”  For good reason (IMHO) the strike avoided stored chemical weapons.  Personnel at the base were warned of the impending attack and as of now, no casualties have been reported.

3: Results: some shit got blown up. All of it can be repaired or replaced with out, it seems, significant difficulty.

All of which is to say that this was what most kindly can be called a warning shot, and rather less so, performance art.

Which gets me to my point.  The price tag for fifty nine Tomahawk missiles runs a little bit shy of $90 million.

For scale: that’s roughly 60% of the $148 million the to-be defunded National Endowment of the Arts received in 2016.

I believe Donald Trump’s grant was titled, “Very Expensive Holes In Concrete.”

Image: Adrian Hill, A British Mine Exploding, sometime during World War I.