This one looks important:
Joe Biden Live at Gettysburg: A Battle For The Soul Of The NationPost + Comments (30)
by TaMara| 30 Comments
This post is in: 2020 Elections, Biden-Harris 2020, Open Threads, Politics
This one looks important:
In other news, RIP Eddie Van Halen:
And finally Kamala in Elle:
Optimism is the fuel driving every fight I’ve been in—and I could not be more optimistic for the future: https://t.co/tRxNb8jWY8 pic.twitter.com/eyOwhpFknp
— Kamala Harris (@KamalaHarris) October 6, 2020
Open thread
Joe Biden Live at Gettysburg: A Battle For The Soul Of The NationPost + Comments (30)
by WaterGirl| 59 Comments
This post is in: Early Voting 2020, Vote Like Your Country Depends On It, This Fight Is For Everything
Early voting in person is available today – Oct 7– in these states:
Michigan
Minnesota
South Dakota
Vermont
Virginia
Wyoming
Illinois
Maine early voting: October 5 – 30
California: October 5 – November 2
Ohio starts on October 6
New Mexico: October 6
Indiana: October 6
Arizona: October 7th
Texas: October 13
New York: Oct 24 – Nov 1
* Voting absentee in person (a bit of an oxymoron) started on September 9 in Alabama
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Always check your state and county websites for specific information about voting times and voting locations.
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Missouri does not offer an early voting period. If you will be unable to vote in person on Election Day, you can request an absentee ballot/mail-in ballot by mail or by visiting your local election office – beginning on Sept 22.
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Remember, if you vote – in person or drop it off or put it in the mail – stop by and post a comment in the I Voted post. It’s in the sidebar on computers and in the hamburger menu on mobile.
If you know the date for early voting, and your state isn’t on one of these lists yet, let me know in the comments:
Georgia early voting: October 12 – October 30
Texas early voting: October 13 – October 30
Kentucky: October 13th
Rhode Island: October 14
North Carolina: Oct 15 – 31
Massachusetts early voting starts October 17
New Mexico: Oct 17 – 31
Missouri: September 22
Nevada: October 17 – 30
Colorado: October 19
Florida early voting: October 24 – 31 (Oct 19 in some places!)
Wisconsin: October 20
West Virginia: Oct 21 – Oct 31
Early Voting In Person Oct 6: CA, IL, IN, ME, MI, MN, NM, OH, SC, SD, VT, VA, WYPost + Comments (59)
This post is in: Biden-Harris 2020, Open Threads, Proud to Be A Democrat, Republican Stupidity
Balcony scene in Three Stooges film 80 years ago this year: pic.twitter.com/mUTHVLuL7O
— Michael Beschloss (@BeschlossDC) October 5, 2020
These good boys are ready to build bark better. pic.twitter.com/OzaEkehJUR
— Joe Biden (@JoeBiden) October 5, 2020
Now that President Trump is busy tweeting campaign messages, I would ask him to do this: Listen to the scientists. Support masks. Support mask mandates nationwide.
— Joe Biden (@JoeBiden) October 5, 2020
While we've all been focusing on the presidency, the Senate has moved out of toss-up range and Democrats are now nearly 2:1 favorites. A long way from a sure thing, but trending poorly for the GOP. https://t.co/eev4w6wba9
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 5, 2020
There has been way too much analysis the last four years about how all Trump’s lying creates an environment where no one has any faith in anything anymore, and way too little analysis of how all the lying has destroyed Trump’s ability to sell any message https://t.co/NhSWKCjCC1
— Isaac Chotiner (@IChotiner) October 5, 2020
Tuesday Morning Open Thread: Every Picture Tells A StoryPost + Comments (128)
by TaMara| 204 Comments
This post is in: 2020 Elections, Biden-Harris 2020, Open Threads, Politics
A little late, but you can stream it live here: NBCNews Now It’s a free stream. I double-checked you can rewind to the beginning.
Folks, starting today, I'm trying something new.
I'll be writing notes to you about my plans to build our country back better. And I'll be sharing personal stories and behind-the-scenes moments from the campaign trail, too.
I hope you'll follow along. https://t.co/OIjQQRO2I2
— Joe Biden (@JoeBiden) October 5, 2020
These good boys are ready to build bark better. pic.twitter.com/OzaEkehJUR
— Joe Biden (@JoeBiden) October 5, 2020
Open thread
This post is in: 2020 Elections, COVID-19 Coronavirus, Open Threads, Republicans in Disarray!, Trump Crime Cartel
.@peterbakernyt and I reported today that advisers are fearful he leaves because he wants to, and then takes a turn for worse and goes back, which would have both physical and political implications. https://t.co/X33XJCtrVa
— Maggie Haberman (@maggieNYT) October 5, 2020
oh yeah this guy discharged himself https://t.co/Vh3h6yN5UC
— kilgore trout, acting president (@KT_So_It_Goes) October 5, 2020
This is the steroids. He’s manic.
Seriously. This is the steroids. https://t.co/fh6eELyBHh
— Dana Houle (@DanaHoule) October 5, 2020
I was on a short course on a mild one for a tonsil infection years ago and I stayed up all night cleaning my house, SINGING (I do not sing) and having a grand old time.
— Barbara Smith (@nanaslugdiva) October 5, 2020
“Happy hypoxia”?
Trump’s Treatment Suggests Severe Covid-19, Medical Experts Say https://t.co/LSwzOmdQgZ Trump may be in worse trouble than he believes #ONEV1
— Craig L. Ph.D. (@CL2Empower) October 5, 2020
… Nevertheless, many sick Covid-19 patients appear to be doing well even when their lung function is poor, a condition doctors have nicknamed “happy hypoxia.”
“Of course, we like to see that he is feeling good, but it doesn’t put him in a category that’s essentially mild Covid,” Dr. Choo said.
Steroids may also give a false impression of the patient’s state. The drugs are also known to affect mood, causing euphoria or a general happiness. Steroids can also disrupt sleep, leading to insomnia, irritability or depression….
When Boris Johnson had COVID-19, he was working from home with mild symptoms until the 8th day after his diagnosis, at which point his condition worsened so much he went into the ICU. For comparison, Trump first had symptoms 4 days ago.
— Katie Mack (@AstroKatie) October 5, 2020
Anyway please don't take advice about the proper attitude toward the pandemic from someone who is in the early stages of infection, has access to every possible treatment at a moment's notice, whose image depends on projecting strength, & who may or may not be heavily medicated.
— Katie Mack (@AstroKatie) October 5, 2020
oh it’s too late for that doc https://t.co/EhEYRIAMYX
— kilgore trout, acting president (@KT_So_It_Goes) October 5, 2020
ooooooook then https://t.co/uLSWSD61e7
— kilgore trout, acting president (@KT_So_It_Goes) October 5, 2020
A little-known clause in HIPAA says that negative news about the President's health must not be disclosed under severe penalties. https://t.co/pyyuZT8sMX
— Cheryl Rofer (@CherylRofer) October 5, 2020
The WH explained yesterday that the purpose of these briefings is to improve the president’s mood, not to provide reliable information to the American people or US allies or anything like that. https://t.co/xzSrUv27mb
— southpaw (@nycsouthpaw) October 5, 2020
trump’s lung scan results will be released as soon as the IRS finishes their routine audit
— kilgore trout, acting president (@KT_So_It_Goes) October 5, 2020
It has been suggested that the Trump White House is being run from the Simpsons writers’ room…
— Dave Itzkoff (@ditzkoff) October 5, 2020
Monday Evening Open Thread: “Presidential” DischargePost + Comments (295)
by WaterGirl| 42 Comments
This post is in: Propositions, Initiatives, Amendments, Referendums, Vote Like Your Country Depends On It, This Fight Is For Everything
This is the a post for anyone who wants to talk about this year’s Florida Amendments.
The intention is to provide a jumping off point for discussion, and a place for BJ folks to share their views, not to suggest to anyone how they should vote.
Anonymous at Work asked for this one for Florida, and graciously agreed to share his views to get us started. There are 6 this year, so there’s quite a bit of ground to cover.
Anonymous at Work
Disclaimer: I’m a transplanted Florida resident of now 6 years (I chanted “One of us! One of us!” when I got my driver’s license changed). I am a non-practicing attorney with a background in regulatory law and an interest in politics but not so much in local/state politics. Around election time, I pay some attention and do some extra reading on ballot initiatives and the like. While observing professional dystopian governance and ratf*cking in Washington State, I started emailing friends and family before elections, if they wanted my opinion. That said, I have a day job, and am not up on a few details this year.
For those unaware, ballot propositions in Florida require 60% to pass and can either be popular, referred or put on the ballot by a Constitutional Revision Panel, which recommends changes to the state Constitution every 20 years. A good idea except that it gave us such chestnuts in 2018 as “Allowing offshore oil drilling or we’ll ban indoor vaping.” The group in 2018 was entirely Republican. Restoring voting rights to ex-felons was due to voter initiative and a major shocker.
This year we have six Amendments, four from voters and two from the Legislature. In a decidedly non-Floridian manner, they are labeled Amendment 1, Amendment 2, Amendment 3, etc, and none directly involve alligators. I have a pretty clear idea about 3 of them but one of the voter initiatives and the 2 Legislature Amendments have me nervous that I’m missing something.
For my sources, I primarily used the following:
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Amendment 1: Immigrants that aren’t citizens can’t do citizen-things like vote
Citizen Requirement for Voting Initiative
Legislative Summary: Amends Section 2 of Article VI of the Florida Constitution to state that only citizens of the US that are 18 years old or older are qualified electors in Florida
Pros: Reaffirms that non-citizens can’t do things limited to citizens, primarily vote.
Cons: This doesn’t change anything but it is entirely symbolic of xenophobia and/or racism.
League of Women Voters: No.
My rec on #1: No, spitting optional. This Amendment has absolutely no effect and the League of Women Voters came out against it for that reason. The only reason to make this difference is to reaffirm xenophobia and racism.
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Amendment 2: $15 Minimum Wage by 2026
$15 Minimum Wage Initiative
Legislative Summary: Raises minimum wage to $10.00 per hour effective September 30th, 2021. Each September 30th thereafter, the minimum wage shall increase by $1.00 per hour until the minimum wage reaches $15.00 per hour on September 30th, 2026. From that point forward, future minimum wage increases shall revert to being adjusted annual for inflation starting September 30th, 2027.
Pros: While it’s not close to a living wage for much of Miami, it’s a sight better than the current $8.46 currently. It also ties future automatic increases to “inflation” to prevent stagnation, although Florida has a set formula that increases the wage (but at a significantly slower pace).
Cons: Anyone else hear alarm bells go off with “inflation” and with the term generally “minimum wage”? Me too. What counts as “inflation” is left undefined and could be short-circuited by the Legislature, especially since Florida is under one-party rule and gerrymandered heavily. Florida exempts tipped employees but their gross tips still have to add up to current minimum wage. Same with full-time HS or College students and for 90 days after new employment for those under 20 (i.e. training wage). The pace, as mentioned is glacial and wouldn’t result in a livable wage at any time. Finally, I do worry that a future (all-Republican) state Supreme Court could interpret the Amendment as “locking in” a minimum wage to $15.00 per hour plus whatever “inflation rate” the Republican Legislature deems appropriate.
League of Women Voters: Yes.
My rec on #2: YES. Half a loaf is a good start. Also, seems sure to pass given the disparity in funding ($4.7 million by supporters vs. $400k by opponents), and the fact that Chamber of Commerce has been silent on this one.
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Amendment 3: Jungle (Boogie) Primaries
Top-Two Open Primaries for State Offices Initiative
Legislative Summary: Allows all registered voters to vote in primaries for state legislature, governor, and cabinet regardless of political party affiliation. All candidates for an office, including party nominated candaidates, appear on the same primary ballot. Two highest vote getters advance to general election. If only two candidates qualify, no primary is held and winner is determined in general election. Candidate’s party affiliation may appear on ballot as provided by law. Effective January 1, 2024.
Quick Note: “As provided by law” is necessarily vague. The change is to the state Constitution and not the underlying statutes that govern the conduct of elections. Florida had nine officially recognized political parties able to hold their own closed primaries (exception for primaries with only one party of two candidates; those were open).
Pros: Jungle primaries are a big deal some places, like Washington State. I am generally supportive of them as giving better options in a general election rather than moving the fight to the (lower-turnout, fanatic-dominated) primaries. For a formerly closed-primary state, it offers some voting power at the state level to the minority party, especially for a highly packed-and-crack state like Florida.
Cons: Minority representation would be a problem, which is the leading argument by the League of Women Voters. Both political parties are against it, for valid reasons that it would weaken their ability to identify preferred candidates and manage internal business. Despite claims otherwise, it wouldn’t eliminate ratf*cking by third party general ballot candidates (Privet, Comrade Stein!) but allow for self-designated candidates to dilute, divide and deceive voters during the primary.
League of Women Voters: No.
My rec on #3: A very soft “No”? This Amendment has good arguments for and against it. The organizations lining up against it are a who’s-who of organizations, both for good and evil. The supporters are two single-issue advocacy groups and a CEO of an investment firm whose statement reads like bad High Broderism with many paeans to centricism and “both sides” and the holiness of “registered independents”.
My personal voting preference is for ranked choice, like in Maine. Voting reform, if done badly, is a major step backwards.
This is the one voter initiative where I wonder, “Did I miss anything?”
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Amendment 4: Double-secret probation for voter initiatives
Voter Approval of Constitutional Amendments
Legislative Summary: Requires all proposed amendments or revisions to the state constitution to be approved by voters in two elections, instead of one, in order to take effect. The proposal applies the current thresholds of passage to each of the two elections.
Quick Note: Florida’s threshold is 60%, so already a super-majority.
Pros: Direct democracy has a decidedly mixed history both in state and in the nation (*waves at California*) and there are some true stinkers being submitted and taken up (See Amendment 1 above) for, let’s be generous and say, “whimsical” causes. Florida already has a super-majority requirement about which I am uncertain.
Cons: If you are going to have a ballot initiative process at any level with any entry method AND require a super-majority, you can pick between “run twice” and “super-majority” but not both without being hypocritical. Additionally, this won’t stop “whimsical” ratf*cking initiatives that are both deceptive to common voters and backed by the Legislature. This Amendment is solely to prevent another Felony Restoration amendment from ever passing, again.
League of Women Voters: No.
My rec on #4: The hardest of “No”s possible. Additional steps towards supporters, such as raspberries, rude gestures, pressed hams, and unwrapped hams are optional, while flaming bags of (hopefully) pet poo might be illegal in your community. The unexpected restoration of voting rights to felons, before the Republican Legislature hijacked it into a poll tax, left Republicans terrified. This is the reaction.
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Amendment 5: Bigger window for homestead exemption (Save Our Homes) transfer
Limitations on Homestead Property Tax Assessments; increased portability period to transfer accrued benefits
Legislative Summary: Proposing Amendment to the state Constitution, effective January 1, 2021, to increase, from 2 years to 3 years, the period of time during which accured Save-Our-Homes benefits may be transferred from a prior homestead to a new homestead.
Pros: Legislative Amendment passed unanimously by both chambers. Current system appears to go from sale to next January 1st as “one year” and the next January 1st as “two years” for purposes of keeping a homestead exemption. Timing could matter, as could setbacks if a person is either building a new home or between houses for another reason.
Cons: Costs money that isn’t otherwise replaced. Additionally, this Amendment has hyper-technical changes to the State Constitution to override a hyper-technical provision, rather than take the direct route and repeal the hyper-technical provision to the State Constitution and legislate (and, you know, take responsibility for your actions).
League of Women Voters: No.
My rec on #5: Help? I distrust *this* aspect of direct democracy the most. I can kinda sorta maybe follow the arguments here but my preference is for legislation/regulation to handle these aspects of governance. Putting them in the State Constitution, with a 60% super-majority requirement to change, eligible once every two years, is a bad idea.
BUT, no spending on either side and it passed unanimously. What am I missing?
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Amendment 6: We Love Puppies, Key Lime Pies and Veterans (and their spouses and their spouses’ homestead exemptions)
Ad Valorem Tax Discount for Spouses of Certain Deceased Veterans Who Had Permanent, Combat-Related Disabilities
Legislative Summary: Provides that the homestead property tax discount for certain veterans with permanent combat-related disabilities carries over to such veteran’s surviving spouse who holds legal or beneficial title to, and who permanently resides on, the homestead property, until he or she remarries or sells or otherwise disposes of the property. The discount may be transferred to a new homestead property of the surviving spouse under certain conditions. The Amendment takes effect January 1, 2021.
Pros: See Amendment 5 above.
Cons: See Amendment 5 above, but do a few lines of meth of the alligator stripper’s tail (use your imagination).
League of Women Voters: No.
My rec on #6: WTF Florida? This is the same as #5 but smells worse. Much more hyper-technical for a part of the state Constitution, and I am always critical of anything that resembles “We love hugs, puppies, rainbows, and offshore limited liability holding companies” in ballot initiatives. Again, people with deeper knowledge of Florida, what am I missing?
Discuss!
Florida Peeps: 6 Constitutional Amendments in 2020Post + Comments (42)
This post is in: Biden-Harris 2020, COVID-19 Coronavirus, Open Threads, Proud to Be A Democrat, Republicans in Disarray!
A whopping 65% of Americans agree that “If President Trump had taken coronavirus/COVID-19 more seriously, he probably would not have been infected with the coronavirus/COVID-19” https://t.co/UDBUJEerU2
This was his own damn fault. https://t.co/GFJZV2TQQN pic.twitter.com/wJ2eKHPRXu
— Dan Froomkin/PressWatchers.org (@froomkin) October 4, 2020
Joe Biden leads by 10 points in the presidential race after President Trump tested positive for the coronavirus, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll. A majority of Americans think Trump could have avoided infection if he had taken the virus more seriously https://t.co/j4Iltpvncj pic.twitter.com/3ESEQFHfW9
— Reuters (@Reuters) October 5, 2020
A little schadenfreude, to start the week — from the Washington Post, “Trump’s illness halts campaign just when it needs an October boost”:
… The past seven days have dealt the incumbent one setback after another — the extraordinary revelation in the New York Times that he had paid little to no federal income taxes in recent years; a belligerent debate performance that risked turning off many voters; the arrest of his recently demoted campaign manager in Florida; and finally the president’s hospitalization for covid-19 because of an outbreak of the novel coronavirus in a White House that has made a mockery of public health guidelines and offered contradictory accounts of Trump’s health.
All the while, Biden’s sizable financial advantage has allowed the Democrat to dominate the television airwaves, and some recent polls show his lead over Trump holding steady or even growing.
Despite the rosy prognostications of his physician over the weekend, Trump’s illness has effectively stalled his campaign with just four weeks until Election Day and with voters already casting early ballots in many states…
Trump aides acknowledge that the president’s illness has been unhelpful because it draws national attention to his administration’s handling of the pandemic. They also say that the president being hospitalized undercuts what he views as his main attribute over Biden: That he appears stronger and tougher….
… Trump has a sizable deficit to make up, according to recent public polls. An NBC News-Wall Street Journal survey released Sunday had Biden leading Trump nationally by 14 percentage points among registered voters, 53 percent to 39 percent. The poll showed Biden’s lead nearly doubling after last week’s debate, with an overwhelming majority of voters saying Biden had the better temperament to be president.
Mike Murphy, a GOP strategist and critic of the president who advises Republican Voters Against Trump, said Trump’s electoral problems are compounding.
“He’s falling down the stairs going faster and faster, which makes it harder and harder to regain his footing,” Murphy said. “He really needed a September reset, but instead he was broke and incompetent, and his debate was a disaster. And now he’s in quicksand in October and unable to even work the politics of a serious presidential illness correctly while the clock mercilessly ticks.”…
“It’s like a bad television show, which in fact it is,” Tom Rath, a longtime Republican strategist and elected official in New Hampshire, said in assessing the past week for Trump. “The data suggest that the American people, the public, have just about had enough. Unless [the Trump campaign] significantly change the direction and dynamic of this race — and nothing they have done so far has been able to do it — we are headed towards a pretty significant change in government come November.”
this is just insane levels of karmic energy. the plan was to spend october mocking Biden for taking the pandemic seriously and not recklessly endangering himself and tens of thousands of others. pic.twitter.com/q11xmQT4I9
— Josh Marshall (@joshtpm) October 5, 2020
Choose Your Fighter pic.twitter.com/5HTTJkz0Ed
— Scott Lincicome (@scottlincicome) October 5, 2020
Monday Morning Open Thread: A Petard Large Enough to Hoist An Orange… ElephantPost + Comments (287)