Super Tuesday Athena (Open Thread)

There’s no such thing as “Super Tuesday Athena,” of course. Just speculating on what it would be like if CNN decided to start naming voting days the way The Weather Channel is trying to make winter storm names happen.

A text exchange between my Clinton-supporting teenager and me this morning:

bern

Foot traffic was pretty light at my polling place. In contrast to past years, the only political signs surrounding the church where we vote were from the Rubio camp. There was one every four feet or so. Guess that person is cleaning out his or her garage; the signs won’t be needed for the general.

Any predictions? Looks like Clinton and Trump will win yoooodge in Florida. The polls suggest they’ll probably win three other states today with their opponents picking up one each, with narrow wins in Ohio for Kasich and Missouri for Sanders. But after Michigan, who knows.

Looking forward to Rubio’s concession speech this evening if he loses big as expected. A humiliating loss in Florida could end his political career, and good riddance to the smarmy little shit-weasel. He latched onto the fading Bush star on the down-low while running as a tea partier in 2010, then had the disloyalty to turn on his patrons. I’m sure Charlie Crist is enjoying the spectacle.

Open thread!








Tuesday Morning Open Thread: “Mega-Tuesday”

Another big day for politics nerds. And that always brings out the Both Sides! Media Village Idiots, such as Ron Fournier:

On the plus side for the national media, the Washington Post investigates, and reports that Pete Rose has not endorsed Donald Trump. You Ohioan voters may want to explain this to your more credulous friends. Or just tell them the primary has been moved to next week — if they’ll fall for Trump, they’ll probably believe you.

Apart from mocking / bemoaning the intelligence of our fellow Americans, what’s on the agenda for the day?








Late Night Open Thread: Vulgarian Whale

moby trump sheneman

(Drew Sheneman via GoComics.com)
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Interesting Read: “Why Team Clinton’s not sweating Trump”

Yes, it’s Politico. But, while I haven’t been able to listen to the podcast, the write-up is still worth reading. Glen Thrush interviews “Hillary Clinton’s pollster and strategist Joel Benenson”:

Joel Benenson is a world-class worrier, but he isn’t especially worried about Donald Trump in the fall…

Benenson, the Clinton campaign’s bearded principal pollster and chief strategist, can’t even bring himself to pay lip-service to Trump, whom he sees as a one-man Democratic turnout machine and a turn-off switch to moderates in both parties. His analysis of the 2016 landscape leads him to this conclusion that Trump has virtually no path to the presidency (He won’t say the same thing about Bernie Sanders) and Trump presents Clinton with renewed opportunities in purple states – especially North Carolina and Arizona…

“It’s not real,” a grinning Benenson said of Trump’s repeated claim he can defeat Clinton (or Sanders) by wrestling away swing-state voters.

“I don’t see any state that Democrats have won five out of six times, or six out of six times, that Trump, you know, at face value, poses a threat in. I just don’t see it,” said Benenson, who was the top pollster in Barack Obama’s two successful presidential campaigns.

“What’s the evidence of it? The evidence of it, they’ve turned out a lot of people. I think he’s broken 50 percent in only one state, right? … If you look at the states that Democrats have won… in five out of the last six [presidential contests], it adds up to 257 electoral votes. It means you only need 13 more to get to 270 if we perform that way.”

Other Obama alumni — including ’08 campaign manager David Plouffe — are basically on the same page, although they think Trump’s unpredictability (coupled with Clinton’s innate caution as a candidate) could cause unexpected problems. Benenson said he hasn’t polled extensively on Trump yet but he thinks Trump has so antagonized minority voters — and turned off moderate whites with his harsh rhetoric and chaotic rallies — that Clinton might exceed Obama’s 2012 total of 332 Electoral College votes…

More polling breakdown, among other details, at the link. Benenson was an Obama staffer in 2008, and he’s… not tremendously impressed with Bernie Sander, shall we say?

(via Al Giordano’s twitter feed, IIRC)








Election Confession

hrc shouting

You know how sometimes you’re faced with a really hard choice where the pros and cons seem even and you just can’t make up your mind? And then you flip a coin, and while your quarter is spinning in the air, you realize which outcome you’re rooting for, and that’s how you make your decision?

That’s how picking a candidate for tomorrow’s primary has been for me this year. I like Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders both a lot and would happily vote for either one in the general. I’ve donated small sums to both candidates, watched most of the debates and followed their campaigns closely. Both are great candidates, IMO. Read more