C.R.E.A.M.

First, some good news:

UPDATED w/ @mikedebonis @seungminkim House moves toward quick vote on Democratic coronavirus package https://t.co/YQrGhcEBLT

— Erica Werner (@ericawerner) March 11, 2020

… Outlines of the plan were shared Wednesday evening with Trump administration officials, with the hope of reaching a bipartisan deal ahead of the vote. The legislation includes free coronavirus testing, up to three months of emergency paid leave benefits to all workers affected by the coronavirus, and could also include an 8 percentage point increase in the federal share of Medicaid payments to states, lawmakers and aides said.

The House effort shows the urgency with which political leaders are moving to contain the economic turmoil caused by the coronavirus outbreak. Although the Senate may not have time to act before a congressional recess scheduled for next week, a number of Republican senators indicated openness Wednesday to at least some elements of the House plan and said it was important to act quickly…

Events were developing rapidly on Capitol Hill after the World Health Organization announced it was declaring the coronavirus a pandemic. A senior administration official, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss internal thinking, said that the White House would review details of the plan before commenting. But this official was complimentary of the effort by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), saying, “From the beginning, ideas the speaker had were important parts of the conversation.”

President Trump was scheduled to address the nation from the Oval Office later Wednesday and could announce more economic proposals to address the virus.

Some GOP senators were waiting to take their cues from the White House. “A lot of it will depend on what the White House says,” said Senate Finance Chairman Charles E. Grassley (R-Iowa).

Trump is pushing aides to develop a large tax cut package, and he could allow people to delay filing their taxes. Trump pitched Republican senators Tuesday on a big payroll tax reduction that could last through the end of the year and his reelection. But the response was skeptical, and House Democratic leaders are not including any such measure in their plan.

The paid sick leave component of House Democrats’ plan would replace two-thirds of wages for most workers, up to a $4,000 a month plan. The proposal would extend eligibility for unemployment insurance. It is also expected to include about $1 billion in emergency appropriations to expand access to food security programs including food stamps, Meals on Wheels and the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants and Children. The overall price tag of the plan was unclear as of Wednesday evening, but was expected to be in the tens of billions of dollars at least…

Pelosi spoke twice Tuesday with Mnuchin, including just before meeting with the House Democratic caucus Wednesday evening to discuss the legislation, but she told reporters that White House priorities — included the broad payroll tax cut Trump supports — will not be included in the House package. The tax cuts alone that the White House has proposed could cost as much as $400 billion over one year.

“We made our proposal, and we’ll see how they are in agreement with it,” Pelosi said, adding that White House priorities might be added “for the future, but for right now, families first.”…

Biologist Trevor Bedford is one of the experts I’ve been following for my COVID-19 updates, but a lot of his best stuff is too technical for quick Twitter extraction. Vanity Fair has a new piece on his work — ““The Nature of Viruses Is to Mutate”: Mapping the Spread of a Deadly Disease”:

The map looks like an elaborate subway schematic of lines and circles, except that the dozens of dots aren’t stations in an urban metro system. Colored violet, orange, sky blue, and lime, these circles are places you definitely don’t want to be in. To find yourself inside one of the multihued dots on this highly viral online map means you are at risk of exposure to Covid-19—the novel coronavirus.

Few people are more aware of the literal micro-movements of this tiny bug that’s unnerving billions of people than the map’s cocreator Trevor Bedford, a 38-year-old evolutionary biologist at the Fred Hutch, a medical research center in Seattle, the city that also happens to be something of a ground zero in the U.S. for Covid-19. With red, wavy hair and a reassuring smile, Bedford is part Holmesian sleuth, DNA detective, and graphic artist in the mold of Yale statistician and artist Edward Tufte, whose visual depictions have made data not only accessible, but often beautiful.

Since the outbreak began, Bedford (@trvrb on Twitter) has also become an unlikely social media star. “It’s been very, very surreal,” he said. “I now have 70,000 Twitter followers who are all very interested in genomic epidemiology.” At last glance Bedford had over 106,000 followers.

All of this attention is being directed at a previously obscure website that Bedford cocreated in 2015, now called Nextstrain (nextstrain.org)—which last week recorded over 400,000 hits. Nextstrain tracks the genetic mutation patterns of Covid-19—changes in the virus’s genetic code that appear in newly infected people in different cities and countries—as it spreads around the world.

“The nature of viruses is to mutate,” said Bedford, explaining that as these microorganisms rapidly reproduce, genetic errors can occur. But these aren’t the scary mutations that wipe out billions of people like in Hollywood films. “The vast majority of these mutations are absolutely meaningless,” said Emma Hodcroft, an epidemiologist who is on Bedford’s team and based out of the University of Basel in Switzerland, “but they are useful to help us see how the virus travels and changes.”…

The data for Nextstrain is provided by hundreds of scientists the world over, working to sequence samples of the virus as it expands into new locales. “We can post new data in as fast as five minutes between a genome being released and Nextstrain being updated,” said James Hadfield, a geneticist in Bedford’s lab. “I’d say the vast majority is being done within an hour.”

The sequences that feed into this system, however, can take between one and five days to complete, depending on the logistics on the ground—faster than before, said the CDC’s MacCannell, “but it needs to be even faster.”…

Intriguing article from Asia Times — “Why are Korea’s Covid-19 death rates so low?”:

Robust healthcare, prior preparation, aggressive testing – and good fortune

South Korea has the dubious distinction of suffering the second-highest number of Covid-19 infections after China – but can also boast the lowest death ratio among countries with significant numbers of cases.

According to the WHO on March 6, the crude mortality ratio for Covid-19 – that is, the number of reported deaths divided by the number of reported cases – is between 3-4%. In Korea, as of March 9, that figure was a mere 0.7%.

While 7,478 cases were confirmed in South Korea by the Korea Center for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC) on Monday, only 51 have died. Meanwhile, according to data from John Hopkins University, Italy has 7,375 cases and 366 deaths, while Iran has 7161 cases and 237 deaths.

Amid the outbreak, neighboring China has used a “Great Wall” strategy to cordon off entire cities. South Korea has stuck to a liberal playbook: even its most affected city, Daegu, has not been isolated. This makes Seoul’s apparent success in the struggle against Covid-19 a potential benchmark for other affected democracies.

What is behind Korea’s low fatality rate from a virus that has spooked the world? Government briefers speaking to foreign reporters in Seoul on Monday offered some pointers.

Key factors include a robust national health service; prior experience of virus outbreaks and related preparations; aggressive execution of testing, isolation and treatment protocols, fully backed by the law – and two incidences of good fortune…

And a longish (semi-stripped) twitter thread, on what we *should* have learned from earlier pandemics:

1/ Dr. Max Starkloff was a hero who saved countless lives in St. Louis during the Spanish flu pandemic. City governments today ought to follow his example to mitigate the impact of #COVID19.

— Debra Caplan (@debra_caplan) March 10, 2020

2/ Starkloff was the city health commissioner of St. Louis. In October 1918, St. Louis had its first 7 cases. Two days later, Starkloff abruptly ordered the closure of ALL schools, movie theaters, bars, sporting events, religious services, playgrounds, and other public places.

3/ It was a bold move, just two days after the first cases were identified. The mayor backed Starkloff and gave him legal authority to make public health edicts.

City residents had one day to prepare.

4/ St. Louis was the only city in the country to react so swiftly and aggressively. Many in St. Louis initially thought that Starkloff was overreacting. Theater owners protested. There were angry letters to the editor.

5/ Newspapers published political cartoons like this one, entitled "Life's Darkest Moment." pic.twitter.com/29mvctmcnx

— Debra Caplan (@debra_caplan) March 10, 2020

6/ St. Louis’s 7 initial cases quickly grew into hundreds, and then thousands. Starkloff responded by expanding the closures to include most businesses except for banks, newspapers, embalmers, and coffin-makers.

7/ People were furious. Presidents of major companies made statements denouncing Starkloff. The pressure was immense, but he didn’t back down…

10/ But Starkloff never backed down. He instructed his deputies to assert that “the lives of the people should be considered first and the business and money interests of the city later.”

City officials, it’s time to #BeLikeStarkloff…

15/ Starkloff’s measures lasted about two months and had a dramatic impact on the impact of the pandemic on St. Louis.

St. Louis ended up with the lowest mortality rate of any major US city.

16/ Max Starkloff saved lives with quick and decisive action.

No U.S. city has taken up anything like the measures that he put into place, yet. But Starkloff's story offers a powerful illustration of how brave individuals in city government can save lives on a massive scale. pic.twitter.com/RhPDX4cpW8

— Debra Caplan (@debra_caplan) March 10, 2020

COVID-19 Coronavirus: A Few Longer ReadsPost + Comments (33)