Go vote early

I voted last night.  The Senior Center had a steady trickle of people coming in and out of the building.  Some were there to take the class on how to Flash Mob, but most were there to vote. I live in a district where there are no competitive legislative elections. I’m in a packed region of base liberal Democrats. The major questions where my vote might matter are North Carolina Supreme Court, six constitutional questions and an affordable housing bond issue that recognizes that the best way to deal with a housing shortage is to build more housing.

Early voting helps campaigns.  I am not a persuasion target.  I might be a mobilization target for campaigns as I am new to the area and my Pennsylvania history of being an unusually young super-voter has not transferred over to North Carolina data banks.  Demographically, I look like a potential mobilization target as I’m a recently registered Democrat with a short election history and my age indicates that I’m not a certain voter.  If I show up, I’m likely to vote liberal but my profile suggests that showing up might be a problem.  Campaigns will invest time, effort, energy and door knockers in getting their mobilization targets to the polls.

Early voting gives campaigns information to better target their marginal resources.  Now that I’ve voted, there is no longer a reason for a campaign to target me.  I can not be persuaded in any relevant manner and I can not be further mobilized for a vote.  If you think that you are a potential mobilization target (check out the e-mails that you’ve gotten and the phone calls made by campaigns to you — if you have gotten called more than once, you’re a target), go vote early.  Help the campaign by clearing their lists and giving them new information.

And if you think that Shelby County authorized shenanigans are likely on Election Day, vote early so that the polls won’t be as crowded.  If you vote in a precinct that routinely can see an hour long line at peak times, voting early and removing yourself from the line chops off a few seconds of the wait.

Go vote early if possible even if all you are doing is shifting your vote’s timing.  It helps.

 

 



Comhghairdeas Éire! (Our Chance Comes In November)

Ireland has done what, as a not-much-younger-human I would have thought impossible in my lifetime: it has legalized abortion — and by an overwhelming margin.

In doing so, it has struck a blow that will resonate worldwide, and especially here, I think and hope.  Most important, it says to the forces of reaction that all people are people (even women!) and to hell with any doctrine, policy or party that says and does otherwise.

The Irish can have nice things.  So should we — and can if we mobilize the energy that is already here to say “not on our watch” this November.

We’ll be talking about that all summer, I’m sure.  For now, lets celebrate a huge win — for a small island and all its friends.

Image: John Duncan, The Riders of the Sidhe1911.



Good job Florida

That is the third Red to Blue flip this year in special elections. The seat in a neutral environment leans Republican but will flip in this environment. This is the type of seat that will determine the majority in November. Democrats need to pick up a double handful of these types of seats assuming that they pick off most Republican-Clinton seats in November.

Given that it was a twelve point swing, this is useful information for November.



Good news

Give a call to your state’s governors and secretaries of state tomorrow morning. For those who refused to share information with this voter suppression commission, thank them. For those that did share your information, give them a piece of your mind.

Open thread



GOTV for Health this weekend

Maine is trying to expand Medicaid. There have been bi-partisan bills that have routinely passed both chambers of the Maine Legislature. Governor LePage (R-ME) has routinely vetoed these bills. That cycle may be broken next week as Maine has a ballot question on whether or not the state will accept Medicaid expansion.

So if you are in Maine or New Hampshire and have some time this weekend, help with the GOTV and help your fellow Mainiacs.



Time to call the Senate again

Orange Alert

Graham-Cassidy would shift money from states that have successfully implemented the ACA to non-expansion states and then ratchet down the block grants.

Time to call the Senate again.

We need to run out the clock to 12:01 October 1, 2017 at which point the healthcare reconciliation instructions expire. Encourage Senate Democrats to submit bills to the CBO for scoring so that they are back-logged and can not rapidly score anything that needs to be scored for reconciliation. Call and encourage the Sanders budget team to go to town with the Parliamentarian. 24 days need to be burned.



An end may be in sight

The dramatic vote at 2:20 AM where all forty eight Democrats and three Republican Senators voted against Skinny Repeal did not kill the bill. It merely killed an amendment in the form of a substitute to the underlying reconciliation compatible repeal measure. Senator Majority Leader McConnell then pulled the vehicle from consideration at that time. He reserved the right to put it back on the calendar.

The big question remained as to when the reconciliation vehicle dies. It will die if it is not passed in the fiscal year for the budget it was created from. That means it is only a viable vehicle until midnight on September 30, 2017. Once must-pass bills are taken care of (CHIP, Harvey, flood insurance, debt limit, FY-18 funding) Democrats must insist on either immediate adjournment until 12:01 AM October 1st or promise to filibuster everything including post office renaming bills to run out the clock.

Once FY-18 begins, the reconciliation instructions need to be written again and it basically forces a choice between tax cuts or the repeal buzz saw for Republicans.