Just a quick note concerning Obamacare enrollment. Compared to the comparable time point of the 2006 Massachusetts experience, Obamacare Exchange enrollment pace is matching Massachusetts’ enrollment pace for private insurance during the Bay State’s 2006 open enrollment period.
At 16% into the open enrollment period, 2,089 Massachusetts citizens had signed up. As a straight population adjustment (sum *48.75), that would translate into the national experience of roughly 102,000 people signing up. 106,000 people signed up via either the federal exchange or through state exchanges covering all but three Exchange jurisdictions according to the Washington Post. Three state run Exchanges have not reported their numbers so we can assume a slightly higher number.
Being slightly less charitable if we apply an adjustment to the raw population total to account for the fact that Massachusetts had a much smaller uninsured pool, (8.4% in 2006 vs. 15.4% US nationally in 2013), expectations would have seen 186,000 Obamacare enrollments.
However there is another adjustment that would reduce 186,000 expected pace downwards. The Massachusetts Medicaid expansion was only applicable to people up to 100% Federal Poverty Line. For the states that are taking Medicaid enrollment, people who make between 133% and 138% are eligible, so the total US national pool eligible for the Exchanges is smaller than the 1.83 factor adjustment implies.
Even with a crappy three weeks of website work, and pointed political opposition, the pace is either concurrent with the nearest relevant example, or slightly behind depending on how you want to model expected pace. That ain’t bad. (As a side note, I am curious as to why HHS was so optimistic about first month enrollment)
Additionally, Obamacare, even with the Supreme Court and the reactionary assholes neutering Medicaid expansion in half the country is signing people up for Medicaid expansion at a rate that surpasses Massachusetts’ experience in 2006.
Update 1: via a commenter in the Pittsburgh region, I was directed to this story concerning Pennsylvania enrollment.
Despite the glitches, Highmark’s health plans appeared to be an early favorite among people who were able to complete the shopping process. The company picked up 827 individuals through Nov. 2, or 37 percent of enrollees in the state.
That number doubled to 1,665 by Nov. 12, a trend Ash called “encouraging.”
Pennsylvania is a Federal Exchange state. Assuming Highmark is representative, the key is the November pace is at least 3x faster than the October pace, and that is without any time pressure to enroll yet for January 1st coverage.