A loss can contain very useful information. Kansas-04 is such a loss.
Last week, Dems outperformed president margin in CA-34 by +19. Tonight, outperforming in KS-04 by +22. There's a signal in all this noise.
— Matt McDermott (@mattmfm) April 12, 2017
There are half a dozen tactical decision making fights going on Twitter that I’ll avoid for a moment. What does this mean for healthcare?
Anything that has to get out of the House needs to have all of the House Freedom Caucus on board plus most of the Tuesday Morning group or all of the Tuesday Morning Group and a third of the House Freedom Caucus. The House Freedom Caucus policy demands are clear; revert the American healthcare system to 2009 as quickly as possible. The Tuesday Morning group’s demands are a bit more nebulous as they don’t want to be blamed for anything bad and they want large upper income tax cuts.
The AHCA went down because the House Freedom Caucus defected en masse and the Tuesday Morning Group was fleeing very quickly as it was obvious that the bill was going to inflict a lot of very obvious and blamable pain. Rep. Justin Amash (R-MI) thinks that there would have been at least fifty Republican votes against the bill.
Since then, the bill has become even more incoherent on a policy basis while moving in the direction of the House Freedom Caucus’s demands.
So what does this recent history lesson mean?
The AHCA, if it was to pass the House, needs the entire House Freedom Caucus and no more than twenty four total defections from the least conservative Republicans. The original danger zone for Republicans were the twenty three Republican reps who sit in seats where Hillary Clinton won. This matters. We can assume that Republicans who now sit in seats that Trump barely won are on edge. The margin of passage of the AHCA or anything that looks like it was always hyper narrow. It is even narrower.
And by the way:
If you're thinking to yourself "But I'm unqualified to run for office," remember: Donald Trump is president of the United States right now
— laura olin (@lauraolin) April 12, 2017