There seems to be a fair amount of enthusiasm for Ruben Gallego on Balloon Juice.
Here’s his ad, in case you haven’t seen it.
Growing up poor, all I had was the American dream. It kept me going: as a kid sleeping on the floor, a student scrubbing toilets, a Marine losing brothers in Iraq.
Today, too many Arizonans see their dream slipping away. I’m running for the U.S. Senate to win it back for you! pic.twitter.com/ofUvUYRcTP
— Ruben Gallego (@RubenGallego) January 23, 2023
Here’s not shy! Here’s Ruben Gallego, 2 months ago, calling out Kyrsten Sinema for not raising a finger to help Democrats win in November.
The article below makes the case that Democrats are waiting to see what kind of support financial support Ruben Gallego gets from donors within Arizona, because small-dollar donations from individuals is likely to be correlated to votes, and they want want to see what kind of enthusiasm there is before the party is willing to support him publicly.
That seems like a smart strategy to me, but I am certainly not a Democratic party strategist. What do you guys think about that?
So as you can see Gallego’s announcement on Monday that he would challenge Sinema in the Democratic primary has been somewhat of a slow train coming. Funny thing is while having a Democrat officially challenge Sinema puts the national party in an awkward situation, it’s actually the frustrated liberals in Arizona who are now on the clock.
I’ll explain.
The deadline to report all of the money a candidate receives and spends in the first quarter is April 15, but the books close March 31. That leaves Gallego and his supporters a little more than two months to raise enough money to prove there’s either enthusiasm for him or enough blue anger at Sinema to warrant national resources. And it can’t just be big checks from outsiders. There needs to be proof that there would be votes as well as dollars. As one political operative told me, national leaders will be focusing more on the small checks from local residents to gauge how viable Gallego’s chances are before deciding how to back him.
And if his first-quarter numbers are strong, the national party will have to back him, which will undoubtedly affect how the incumbent maneuvers in the Senate. Though keep in mind, Sinema has yet to announce she’s even seeking reelection. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer wouldn’t say whether he would endorse her if she did. Senate Democratic Whip Dick Durbin wouldn’t say either. Neither would Gary Peters, chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.
If this were baseball, she would be out. But this is politics, and Gallego — while liked — isn’t necessarily known around the state for his fundraising prowess, I’m told. So, national Democrats aren’t being coy, as much as patient. They really don’t have to say anything until the wallets in Arizona do first.
Besides, this whole dynamic is new to all of us.
While we have independents besides Sinema in the Senate now, Maine and Vermont don’t have nearly as many variables to negotiate, starting with race. Maine and Vermont are more than 95% white. Nearly a third of Arizonans are Latino. Indigenous and Black make up another 11%. Then there’s the politics surrounding the border — and I’m not talking about the Canadian one. But the biggest variable is size. Of the 4.3 million registered voters in the state, a third are independents.
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This is why the Federal Election Commission quarterly report is so instrumental in determining the party’s next move. The amount of local money going to Gallego — or another challenger — provides clarity. Unless there is a measurable indication that liberal voters in Arizona are really ready to move on from Sinema, why would Schumer and company speak against her during the primary and alienate a potential ally? And remember, Gallego must prove he’s a viable candidate not only against Sinema but against whatever Republican might emerge to face him.
I remember when Barack Obama asked for $5 donations in 2007, and he touted the # of donations more than the dollars raised. I still have my little Obama HOPE lapel pin, and I’m still choosing hope over fear, but my hope is a lot more guarded than it was in 2007 and 2008.
Open thread.