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Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

It’s been a really long fucking year.

Shelter in place is one thing. shelter in pants is quite another.

This is all too absurd to be reality, right?

What fresh hell is this?

Sadly, there is no cure for stupid.

And we’re all out of bubblegum.

Republican obstruction dressed up as bipartisanship. Again.

This is a big f—–g deal.

Wow, I can’t imagine what it was like to comment in morse code.

There will be lawyers.

I’m going back to the respite thread.

Let me eat cake. The rest of you could stand to lose some weight, frankly.

Reality always wins in the end.

This is how realignments happen…

Proof that we need a blogger ethics panel.

Perhaps you mistook them for somebody who gives a damn – Nancy Pelosi

… riddled with inexplicable and elementary errors of law and fact

Whoever he was, that guy was nuts.

They traffic in fear. it is their only currency. if we are fearful, they are winning.

You can’t attract Republican voters. You can only out organize them.

Is it irresponsible to speculate? It is irresponsible not to.

Saul Alinsky is my co-pilot.

I don’t care how fun he is after a few whiskies. fuck that guy.

The math demands it!

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Tim F

You are here: Home / Archives for Tim F

Tim was the first person invited by John Cole to join him as a writer at Balloon Juice. That was way back in 2005!

Official Owen Ellickson appreciation thread

by Tim F|  October 8, 20168:59 pm| 43 Comments

This post is in: Excellent Links

HEIDI: You burned your bridges. You can't unendorse now.
CRUZ: I don't understand! I'm brilliant! How did this happen?
HEIDI: (harsh laugh)

— Owen Ellickson (@onlxn) October 8, 2016

GIULIANI: Sexual assault talk respahnse video, take 1!
TRUMP: "Look, people… relax, OK?"
GIULIANI: We nailed it!
CONWAY: Try again

— Owen Ellickson (@onlxn) October 8, 2016

GIULIANI: Sexual assault talk respahnse video, take 2!
TRUMP: "Bill Clinton talks about felching. Look it up."
GIULIANI: Poifect!
CONWAY: No

— Owen Ellickson (@onlxn) October 8, 2016

GIULIANI: Sexual assault talk respahnse video, take 8!
TRUMP: "How gross is Billy Bush? Not an apology, but while we're here–"
CONWAY: STOP

— Owen Ellickson (@onlxn) October 8, 2016

CONWAY: New defections: Thune, Hewitt.
TRUMP: Hewitt's out? Eeeuuuggh.
(match strike)
TRUMP: Two Kools at once?
CONWAY: It stops talking now

— Owen Ellickson (@onlxn) October 8, 2016

In real life, Rudy Giuliani will replace Reince Preibus on Face the Nation and Kellyanne Conway on FOX News Sunday. Why not, it’s their party. If the bench gets too thin they could always send in Roger Ailes.

Official Owen Ellickson appreciation threadPost + Comments (43)

Joseph Smith is not amused

by Tim F|  October 8, 201611:54 am| 414 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads, Republican Stupidity

The first person to withdraw his Trump endorsement after last night was Jon Huntsman. That was basically instantaneous, and perhaps not a huge surprise if you know Huntsman. Today we have Mike Lee, Gary Herbert and Jason Chaffetz. Utah, Utah Utah. Mitt Romney never considered supporting Trump for an instant.

Anyone want to guess what these people have in common? Those old LDS TV ads were not joking. Nice matters a lot to Mormons. Trump is done in Utah. He should also worry quite a lot about other states with substantial Mormon communities, like Arizona and Nevada. He is probably ok in Idaho though. So there’s that.

Chat about whatever.

Joseph Smith is not amusedPost + Comments (414)

The unforgivable curses, a short guide

by Tim F|  October 8, 20169:40 am| 142 Comments

This post is in: Republican Stupidity, Assholes

Some folks on Twitter and elsewhere have tried to defend Donald Trump, or at least minimize last night’s impact, by saying we already had all this on tape. He called Mexicans rapists. He called Rosie O’Donnell a pig. He said racist things about a judge, Miss Universe and a thousand other people. But the rest of the world has gone nuts about this? What is up with that?

To me the answer is pretty simple. There are curses that everyone more or less tolerates. Schmuck. Asshole. Turd face. Horse fucker. Even calling someone a murderer, rapist or son of a motherless goat won’t automatically get you shunned by society as long as you stay on the right side of slander and libel laws. But then there is a whole other category of insults. You know the ones. Fag is maybe the only one I can safely print, even just to discuss it. The rest you know by their first letters alone. C-. N-. Unless you are Tyrion Lannister then your reputation will not survive saying those. Something about those words makes them stand out from anything else you can say to someone.

I think an important clue is to look at what happens to a terrible ethnicity-based insult when the ethnicity goes mainstream. At one time being Irish or Italian had real consequences in America. Back in the day a vulgar term for Irish had weight. Those vulgar terms were a way to put someone in their place. It said you have privileges that they don’t. You can shut them out or hurt them. Can you imagine someone getting turned away from an apartment today because they are Irish? Of course not. That has a lot to do with why barely anyone even remembers the old insults. There is no threat there. The Jewish insults still have some weight. In related news, Twitter tells me that there are thousands of people out there who still have a weirdly singular hatred for Jews. Maybe millions. Meanwhile the twentieth century provides an indelible reminder that no amount of assimilation should make Jews feel entirely safe from threats. Saying the K-word today does not have anywhere near the impact of when I grew up (the local ritzy golf club started letting in Jews beyond its token one-family limit when I was in high school, in the early 90s). Nonetheless if you say the k- word today it will mean something, to me and to your reputation.

That is the one thing our short list of unforgivables has in common. They all imply a threat. Black people can still be turned away from a mortgage. In many places a white person can still expect the overwhelming benefit of the doubt if he shoots a black man in the street, where a black man would be convicted before any detective opens the case. A woman can be assaulted or raped at any time, and too often the justice system just heaps on the shame and abuse. I thought I was sufficiently jaded about rape and ‘justice’, until I found about the disgraceful state of rape kits nationwide. These are easy convictions. In many cases the perps are already in custody. In many, many cases catching the perp quickly would have saved three, ten or more women from being assaulted later.

Donald Trump did not ‘insult’ women or make ‘vulgar’ statements about women. He talked about making threats and then acting on them. He bragged that they had no defense against his assaults, and no recourse afterwards. Imagine that Trump called a black man the n- word and then beat him with a cane. Aside from being an anachronism in this age, would it be so different?

Donald Trump committed unforgiveable acts in his life. In 2005 he bragged about it. People may not get that explicitly, but fundamentally they get it. You cannot uncross this line.

The unforgivable curses, a short guidePost + Comments (142)

Live by the sword

by Tim F|  October 1, 201611:12 pm| 200 Comments

This post is in: Republican Stupidity, Assholes

Here is a fun thought. Whoever leaked Donald Trump’s 1996 taxes likely has more than just three pages from one year. If we learned anything from the Clinton emails*, we learned that a story in drips never, ever dies. It does not even need to have anything interesting in it. But Trump’s tax story is so, so interesting. What business genius loses a billion dollars in the middle of an economic expansion? America was printing money in the mid 90’s. After a revelation like this it sounds a lot more plausible that the guy is effectively broke and keeping up the lifestyle by piling on debt to Russian mobsters and a couple recklessly stupid soon to be ex-managers at Deutsche Bank.

Now it could be that Trump’s mole has just that one batch of papers. You and I have no way to know. But Trump has no way to know either. And I expect he or she has more for the simple reason that the 1996 return is such an obviously crucial year. The near-billion dollar loss apparently set Trump up to live income tax-free for up to two decades. From what I understand any later year’s return would make much more sense if you saw what happened in 1996. The leaked documents would be a very smart first step.

And christ on a cracker do the Trumplings not want to talk about this. Rich people laws confuse and disturb or ordinary voters. Imagine I put all my money on a bet that blows up in my face. It is not hard to explain what happens next: I lose all my money. In a month Ex-football players pull up in a truck and carry away my stuff. The rules are different for rich people. It is like you simply cannot lose as long as you can pay the right accountant. Everyone more or less knows that, but having it rubbed in your face like this is viscerally galling. Frank Luntz’s focus group was utterly appalled when Trump smugly let on that he doesn’t pay taxes. Someone in his camp persuaded him to walk it back literally the moment he finished shaking Lester Holt’s hand. They know it sucks and explaining won’t help.

When you have as much to hide as Trump does, not knowing whether another shoe is about to drop must be agony. I suppose he could release everything right now and at least kill the suspense. The problem is we only have a month left in the race. It would take longer than a month just to digest the things we find in there. Meanwhile some states have already started voting. There is really no choice but turtle up and hope that nothing else leaks.

(*) Bad acts? Not so much. If anyone is still holding their breath for proof of malfeasance, their loved ones should probably intervene.

Live by the swordPost + Comments (200)

I never said that

by Tim F|  September 27, 20169:37 am| 186 Comments

This post is in: Politics, Republican Stupidity, Assholes

You know the crazy dream where you just did something with potentially catastrophic consequences and you beg the universe for a chance to take it back*? Apparently Donald Trump thinks you really can do that. Probably that is what growing up in a gilded little box does to you. Let’s say that young lord Fontleroy declares that he never called the cook awful names and daddy pointy hat backs him up. Who can say it ever happened? If your character bends that way already (#notallrichpamperedshits) then starting his work life as the rich boss would just make it worse.

How many times has this guy flatly denied he said something that you could easily find on tape or in writing? The debate added three, maybe four more examples to the list (I had a hard time keeping up). There was the one about the interview where he complained about employees getting pregnant. I predict Trump will especially regret the one about never paying income tax. That was the fatal rumor that scared the hell out of the Romney campaign. It really rubs ordinary voters the wrong way, and explaining it just makes the disconnect between you and them even worse. Instead of parrying the question and answering with transparency like Romney eventually did, Trump bragged about it like an eight year old who found a loophole in the literal terms of his curfew (“It makes me smart!”) and then he telegraphed how stupid that was by denying that he said what he clearly just said on live TV. This is such a gift to the opponent that you almost don’t know where to start. Maybe just stitch the exchange and his denial into a thirty second ad and run it without commentary.

Here’s a question that I dropped in the comments last night – does anyone have a comprehensive list of how many times Trump has denied saying something he is clearly on record having said? This is the sort of thing I used to count on from Steve Benen when he wrote the Carpetbagger blog. Any suggestions appreciated.

(*) If this means I should talk to a professional immediately, I never had that dream.

***Update***

Oh for fuck’s sake.

Trump insists ‘there was no sniffles’ during presidential debate

For the record, yeah, he sniffled a lot during the debate. Maybe he buried his face in coke in the green room, or maybe he’s just sick. Who knows. He should get that checked out.

I never said thatPost + Comments (186)

Gimme money, that’s what I want

by Tim F|  September 22, 20162:20 pm| 136 Comments

This post is in: Domestic Politics, Free Markets Solve Everything

Kevin Drum made an interesting observation this morning – a lot of major central banks would like to see more inflation right now, but so far no one has pulled it off. A bunch of people replied that maybe one of the central banks should try printing a lot of money, so Drum pointed out that Japan already did that.

So the conclusion is…free money is really free? Can we print out the entire federal deficit? Alexander Hamilton would roll over in his grave, but think of the positive side. America would finally qualify for a decent mortgage rate. The Fed could mail fat envelopes of cash to everyone with a social security number. I bet that would poll pretty well.

I would guess* the answer has more to do with the psychological side of finance. Maybe printing money has no effect as long as everyone thinks that the bank is still being responsible. If international investors get nervous that the bank is really shooting the moon, maybe they will all get worried at the same time and all the bad stuff we associate with an inflation spike will kick in irreversibly all at once. Or maybe it’s not enough for the Fed to print money. Rich folks mostly just squirrel excess cash away in in some foreign account where it gathers fees and puffs up investment bubbles and generally doesn’t do anyone much good.

Perhaps you also need to get that scratchola into the hands of people who will reliably stimulate the economy with it. That is to say, poor people. If you give a poor person ten dollars they will spend most of it right away, in America, on stuff that supports jobs in America. Poor people all having enough money to buy eggs (and a refrigerator) will pretty much a priori make eggs (and refrigerators) more expensive. In my happy fantasy world where Republicans return the value of the air they consume, I can imagine coupling a major QE push with a comparable surge in infrastructure/jobs and safety net spending. Betcha ten bucks we would hit two percent inflation pretty quickly, and without the likely very bad consequences of the Fed just leaving the presses running until China and Europe hit the panic button.

(*) Professor Krugman is trying to knock a stuck bag of Welch’s fruit snacks free from a vending machine, so I’m just going to sit in his chair here for a minute and write this. Don’t tell him, ok?

Gimme money, that’s what I wantPost + Comments (136)

Open thread

by Tim F|  September 20, 20169:35 pm| 171 Comments

This post is in: Dog Blogging, Open Threads

I spent a year and a half investigating the Clinton Foundation and all I got was this lousy t-shirt.

***Update***

OK, enough Clinton-Trump for now. You know what this blog needs? A pug named Dumpling.

Treat?

Max and Dumpling

Crap, I’m out of treats.

Max and Dumpling

Chat about whatever.

Open threadPost + Comments (171)

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