Four Seasons Total Landscaping mistermix

Fuck these guys:

Catholic bishops on Friday voted to create guidelines on the meaning of Communion, a move that could be an early step toward limiting the serving of the Eucharist to President Biden and other politicians who support abortion rights.

Since the decision about who can receive communion is delegated to the local bishop, and DC’s archbishop has said that Biden will get communion, this is moot. But, fuck ’em anyway, and tax them for being a political action group rather than a church.

Here in New York, the Child Victims Act was passed to allow a short-term suspension of the statute of limitations on sexual abuse. The “look-back window” closes on August 14, 2021. The Rochester Diocese declared bankruptcy and is now trying to foist a $35 million settlement onto the 475 victims who have filed claims — a little less than $75K/each. They’ve also, predictably, dragged their feet on mediation. I hope those victims get at least a million bucks each and assume custody of every god damned piece of property owned by the Rochester Diocese. Then, they can rent all those churches back to the Diocese, or maybe just sell them off.

Child Rape Enablers Want to Deny Biden CommunionPost + Comments (105)

If you can stand the pre-roll ad, you can watch the exchange Nuzzi is talking about here. Basically, CNN’s Kaitlan Collins asked a question that began by misquoting Biden as saying that he was confident that Putin will change his behavior. Biden fires back by saying, in part, “what the hell do you do all the time.” (Answer: ask stupid gotcha questions.) He then goes on to correct the record and does a bit of lecturing. Apparently, he even apologized to her later for getting a little snippy.

It. was. nothing. This is the fucking big leagues, and sometimes asking a dumb question gets you roasted.

This is completely different from how Trump treated the press, and I don’t think I need to explain that to anyone here, yet Olivia Nuzzi apparently needs it explained to her carefully, since her tweet would apply to Trump on pretty much any day that he talked to the press. I’ll put her on the long, long list of DC correspondents whose stuff isn’t worth reading, and note that she and everyone else on that list just doesn’t get that Trump and the Republicans are at all-out war with them, while Biden and the Democrats just want to be treated fairly.

Double Standard in Full OperationPost + Comments (144)

Here’s an American pipehitter, but I don’t know about his inclination to apologize, fight for the future, or give an inch:

PipehitterPost + Comments (147)

I’m trying to do a somewhat rational risk assessment of the Delta variant as someone living in an area where 80+% of the eligible population in my zip code have been fully vaccinated, 65% in my county have had a first dose, and 55% are fully vaccinated.

Apparently, around 10% of the US infections are Delta, while the UK finds that 90% of their cases are Delta. The UK’s full vaccination rate, on the whole, is approximately the same as the US (44%), and they are not going to leave lockdown on June 21 due to the spread of the Delta variant.

Dr. Fauci believes that the mRNA vaccines are about 88% effective against Delta if you’ve taken both doses, but only 33% after one dose. No study has been done on the J&J vaccines, though only a small percentage of those vaccinated in my area have gotten J&J.

We’ve basically ended precautions here, except for medical facilities. Mask wearing has gone from almost universal a month ago, to maybe 25% in stores today. Restaurant staff and patrons also are unmasked for the most part. Who knows if any of the unvaccinated are unmasked, but presumably most of them are.

I ate indoors yesterday and felt pretty comfortable being there with my wife, since both of us have been vaccinated with mRNA vaccines. But I’m going to re-evaluate that as Delta grows in our area. I expect that Delta will surge through states with lower vaccination rates, and their hospitals will start to fill up again. I just don’t know if New York, which has 60% of the 18+ population vaccinated, and 49% of the total population, will be able to fight off Delta, since our vaccination rates are currently piddling away.

The other complication is that the real defense against COVID is everyone wearing a mask. If I think Delta is an issue, I’ll probably go back to using a N-95 mask, which will be a depressing step backwards.

Here’s a thread to discuss your current view of the situation.

Delta DawnPost + Comments (129)

She’s playing the long game with her stalker MTG, and it’s funny to watch. In a more serious vein, this piece in Wonkette is worth a read.

Morning ChucklePost + Comments (206)

As a Democrat with a little pocket money, choosing which races to fund is fraught with challenges. One of them is media full of unreasonable expectations about beating hateful assholes in uber-safe districts. Another is that beating a hateful asshole in a not-so-safe district is is a multi-year task, yet the primary winner on our side only has a couple of months to campaign after they win the primary. Still, after a little investigation and reading, I’m coming to believe that we could beat Lauren Boebert in 2022.

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Boebert May Be BeatablePost + Comments (50)

First, let’s look at the district. Geographically, it’s gigantic. It’s basically the Western Slope of Colorado plus Pueblo.

Now, let’s look at a county-by-county breakdown of the 2020 Presidential vote, which more-or-less tracks the vote in CO-3. Yes, I know that I often rail against the use of cloropleth maps but check out my sophisticated graphical notations.

The district itself has a PVI of R+6. The blue counties in the mountains are generally lightly populated ski towns and hippie enclaves. Besides Pueblo, population 112K, (green circle) the other city in the district is Grand Junction (pop 64K, orange circle) in solidly red Mesa county. Those western red counties go for Trump 60-70/40-30. One exception: Boebert is from Rifle, in far western Garfield County, which flipped red to blue in 2020. Boebert lost her home county, which is noted on the map by the “Ha Ha!”. So, the action that we care about is all in Pueblo.

Politico just published a long story from a Denver journalist who spent some quality time in Pueblo, and it isn’t good for Boebert. Politico has a vested interest in making wide-open races look tight, and true to form, this piece mostly quotes Democrats and Union officials. That said, there are a couple of things that I think are good signs:

• The door to Bobert’s Pueblo office is often locked. (And she doesn’t return the head of the steelworkers union’s call, quelle surprise, but what other calls don’t her staffers return?) One of the best ways to beat someone like her is to convince her district that she’s a lazy glory hound.
• Pueblo is home to one of three steel mills in the nation that make rail. Boebert does not support Biden’s infrastructure plan that would lead to more railroad construction.
• Boebert only has one announced Republican challenger, who’s a political nobody. The worst thing that could happen is that a reasonable Republican beats her in a primary and then takes the district.
• There are a lot of Democrats in the race, and they’re raising decent amounts of cash (collectively, they’ve raised just a little less than $500K, which is about what Boebert has raised.) Like the 2020 Presidential election, CO-3 in 2022 is an audition for who can field the most effective attacks on Boebert, so I’m happy to see a bunch of Democrats vying for that prize.

The final fact about Boebert that makes me think she’s beatable is how terribly she comes off when she isn’t tweeting.

Here she is, sitting in her restaurant questioning an intelligent, calm Biden Administration member (Acting Budget Director Shalanda Young) and her affect and demeanor is that of a dumb teenager trying to get the principal’s goat. For all her guns, she clearly lacks confidence and can’t think on her feet. If the Democratic Party were more like the Republican Party, we’d be up on Facebook and other social media with “Lauren Boebert is a fool who won’t get you any money” ads.

The bottom line here is that beating MTG in her R+28 district is a pipe dream. Hate her all you will, she just has to stay out of jail in order to win in 2022. Boebert is another story entirely. While there’s often talk about “X factors” or “October surprises” that don’t pan out, I think it’s likely that Boebert conspired in some way with some 1/6 perpetrators, and that’s another reason that I think she’s beatable.

From a Reuters article on Kamala Harris’ visit to Mexico, where she made a good impression on President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO):

Lopez Obrador, a leftist, likened the Trump administration to Nazi Germany for its migration policies while he was in opposition, but acceded to the American president’s demands to tighten the border after taking charge of Mexico in December 2018.

I am by no means an expert on Mexican politics, but I know enough to know that calling AMLO a “leftist” isn’t right. The similarly meaningless term “populist” is probably better since it’s generally used to describe the kind of incoherent moron that AMLO seems to be. For example, his COVID response, which was terrible, was widely thought to be a bit better than Brazil’s, so it didn’t get the same attention as Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro’s self-induced tragedy. Still, in March, Mexico re-adjusted their death toll to about the same as Brazil’s (which was almost certainly an under-report): 321,000, for a country that is a little more than half the size of Brazil.

AMLO and his Morena party held on to power (though with a smaller majority) in Sunday’s mid-term elections because the alternatives are worse.

“He’s leading a very capricious government,” said Pilar Hurtado, 52, who voted in a well-to-do Mexico City neighbourhood and accused Amlo of being “against the middle class”.

Still, she opted for Morena, saying: “All the other parties are trash.”

That last sentence pretty much sums up current Mexican politics. Also, “capricious” is better than “populist” or “leftist”.

In addition to screwing the pooch on COVID, AMLO has been unable to curb cartel violence that has gripped the country: for example, at least 34 of the candidates in the midterm election were killed, with basically a zero solve rate on those killings.

Still, I have to defend the guy from Reuters’ facile gloss on his immigration policies. I can certainly understand why he would compare the Trump Administration’s immigration policies to Nazi Germany, while then agreeing to tighten border restrictions. Much of the immigration is from citizens of Central American countries that impacts Mexico (especially considering the COVID situation) on their way to the US/Mexican border. Plus, as is obvious to anyone studying the situation, border controls don’t work when the alternative is death for you and your family. AMLO’s immigration “restrictions” are the sleeves of a vest, and if you were Mexico and faced with Trump, you’d appease him, too.

Anyway, it’s good to see VP Harris visiting Mexico and treating them like an ally instead of a scapegoat. And, for what it’s worth, even though the international coverage of the Times gets endless fawning hand jobs from the rest of the US media complex, the Guardian is every bit as good or better. Here’s their Mexico feed.

Why Bother Trying to Understand?Post + Comments (135)