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Cheryl Rofer

You are here: Home / Archives for Cheryl Rofer

Retired chemist. I've done a lot of chemistry that has to do with policy, particularly nuclear policy.

Cheryl Rofer has been a Balloon Juice writer since 2017.

Chain of Command

by Cheryl Rofer|  January 8, 202112:22 pm| 232 Comments

This post is in: Dolt 45, Impeachment, Rofer on Nuclear Issues

Nancy Pelosi says that she “spoke to the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley to discuss available precautions for preventing an unstable president from initiating military hostilities or accessing the launch codes and ordering a nuclear strike.”

JUST IN: Speaker Pelosi, 2nd in line of presidential succession, speaks to Joint Chiefs Chairman Milley "to discuss available precautions for preventing an unstable president from initiating military hostilities or accessing the launch codes and ordering a nuclear strike"; READ: pic.twitter.com/zFwTtrSf9g

— Mark Albert (@malbertnews) January 8, 2021

I can tell her the available precautions, and I hope Milley did too: NONE

The President has sole authority to launch nuclear weapons. He is not required to consult anyone else, nor is there provision to force him to.

This situation came about because back in the Cold War, it seemed plausible that the President might not know about a nuclear attack until the missiles were on the way. That gave him a half-hour or less to decide. It was also assumed that we would elect only presidents capable of doing the job.

Nuclear strategists have pressed Congress to change the situation, but so far Representative Ted Lieu’s and Senator Ed Markey’s bill has gone nowhere. Maybe the next Congress will see fit to consider it.

No, there wasn’t a workaround when Nixon was wandering the corridors of the White House, drunk, talking to the portraits. We were lucky.

Nancy Pelosi can’t do a workaround with Mark Milley. That would be tantamount to a military coup, and I think that Milley is not interested in a military coup right now.

If this is a concern, Speaker Pelosi, and I think it is, then bring articles of impeachment to the floor of the House. NOW.

Cross-posted to Nuclear Diner

Chain of CommandPost + Comments (232)

Senate Back In Session Open Thread

by Cheryl Rofer|  January 6, 20219:39 pm| 461 Comments

This post is in: 2020 Elections, Open Threads

Much speechifying, some predictable, some boring, some better. This is the discussion of the objection to the Arizona results. Whoever objected (Hawley?) obviously didn’t see fit to withdraw his objection. Elise Stefanik now sides with the seditionists.

Also, too, a mass resignation seems to be brewing in the Cabinet. But they should think about Lady Macbeth’s hands.

National security adviser Robert O'Brien, deputy national security adviser Matt Pottinger and deputy chief of staff Chris Liddell are all considering resigning, sources tell me, @jaketapper and @vmsalama.

— Kaitlan Collins (@kaitlancollins) January 7, 2021

Senate Back In Session Open ThreadPost + Comments (461)

Insurrection Continues

by Cheryl Rofer|  January 6, 20213:21 pm| 331 Comments

This post is in: 2020 Elections, Open Threads, Republican Venality, Trumpery

Welp pic.twitter.com/qGt39yRQ5m

— Cheryl Rofer (@CherylRofer) January 6, 2021

Incredible Getty photos from inside the Capitol pic.twitter.com/IN2rRcsOg5

— David Mack (@davidmackau) January 6, 2021

Biden will address the situation at the Capitol, I’m told. Remarks from Delaware shortly https://t.co/xfFkARKuZi

— Mike Memoli (@mikememoli) January 6, 2021

I’ll get a link to the Biden remarks as soon as I can.

Insurrection ContinuesPost + Comments (331)

Election Night Open Thread – Looking Good

by Cheryl Rofer|  January 5, 202111:55 pm| 155 Comments

This post is in: 2020 Elections, Open Threads

Vox has called the election for Warnock, and Nate Cohn says it’s about 95% chance Ossoff will win too. I’m going to bed and will leave you with this open thread.

Election Night Open Thread – Looking GoodPost + Comments (155)

Pennsylvania: Government Of, By, and For Republicans

by Cheryl Rofer|  January 5, 20213:25 pm| 138 Comments

This post is in: 2020 Elections, Open Threads

Pennsylvania Republicans have been dicking around with elections for some time. With today’s convening of the legislature, we have more Republicanism.

Welp.

Republican majority of the Pennsylvania State Senate just removed @JohnFetterman from the chamber. President Pro Temp Corman is presiding instead. Fetterman refused to recognize a motion that would have prevented a duly elected Democratic senator from being sworn in. pic.twitter.com/BOFe1kRMfe

— Abraham Gutman 🔥 (@abgutman) January 5, 2021

For background on what's happening, read @AngelasInk on the dispute: https://t.co/nEKuMZW17C

— Abraham Gutman 🔥 (@abgutman) January 5, 2021

The Republican State Senator in Pennsylvania just set a very dangerous precedent: as long as your opponent refuses to concede, you will not be sworn in. No matter that the *highest court in the state* already said the election is Kosher.

Here they are being sworn in. pic.twitter.com/UVaYTYCWDX

— Abraham Gutman 🔥 (@abgutman) January 5, 2021

Jim Brewster, mensch, asked that all other Democratic senators be sworn in. He didn't want the issue around his election to take away from the celebratory nature of the day for others, according to Williams. They are sworn in, including @NikilSaval of Philadelphia. pic.twitter.com/czrC2M4eli

— Abraham Gutman 🔥 (@abgutman) January 5, 2021

Minority Leader Jay Acosta rises in opposition to Corman as President Pro Temp. He is talking about what just happened to Senator Brewster. Acosta makes a good point: Brewster's swearing in wasn't delayed but denied. There is no future date. The result was *certified*. pic.twitter.com/Ig9wBun2VB

— Abraham Gutman 🔥 (@abgutman) January 5, 2021

For those of you who aren’t super familiar with what’s going on in PA that makes all of this so much more mind bending: before covid the *Republican* majority enacted a major election reform bill that expanded vote by mail. *They* set the rules. Now *they* are crying foul.

— Abraham Gutman 🔥 (@abgutman) January 5, 2021

Jake Corman is sworn in as President Pro Temp of the Pennsylvania State Senate after kicking out of the chamber the President of the Senate Lt. Gov. Fetterman and refusing to seat Jim Brewster who won his elections. "Quite a first day," he jokes. pic.twitter.com/82DoRfAtg2

— Abraham Gutman 🔥 (@abgutman) January 5, 2021

Open Thread!

Pennsylvania: Government Of, By, and For RepublicansPost + Comments (138)

Rasmussen Goes Full Wingnut

by Cheryl Rofer|  December 28, 20203:53 pm| 138 Comments

This post is in: 2020 Elections, Trumpery

The Rasmussen polling organization has always tilted right, which is the reason no responsible commenter quotes it uncritically. But they’ve gone over the edge, urging Vice President Pence to intervene illegally in the election when he announces the results to Congress on January 6.

They quote Josef Stalin in support of their proposal because we know he always had the little guy’s welfare at heart.

Come January 6th:

(Those who cast the votes decide nothing. Those who count the votes decide everything. – Stalin)

"Come January 6, 2021, Vice President Mike Pence will be presented with the sealed certificates containing the ballots of the presidential electors.

1/4

— Rasmussen Reports (@Rasmussen_Poll) December 27, 2020

If they are (as more than 70% of Republicans believe) certificates from non-electors appointed via voter fraud, why should he open & count them?"

If the votes of all 7 contested states are registered as zero, President Trump will have 232 votes, Joe Biden will have 222.

3/4

— Rasmussen Reports (@Rasmussen_Poll) December 27, 2020

PS: "Thomas Jefferson … among the most revered founding fathers of our country, only became President because he used his unilateral power as President of the Senate to open and count the presidential ballots in his own favor." https://t.co/ehnnu84Lgi

— Rasmussen Reports (@Rasmussen_Poll) December 27, 2020

Open Thread!

Rasmussen Goes Full WingnutPost + Comments (138)

Dr. Fauci’s Warning

by Cheryl Rofer|  December 24, 202012:14 pm| 137 Comments

This post is in: COVID-19 Coronavirus, Science & Technology

Dr. Fauci is warning us that it may take more than we thought to get to herd immunity. Now that anti-science Donald Trump is on the way out and Fauci is advising President-elect Joe Biden, he’s telling us what he thinks.

A year ago, we knew next to nothing about SARS-CoV-2. Since then, experts have bootstrapped us all the way to effective vaccines. The bootstrapping started from what we know about other coronaviruses and pandemics in general. It’s a matter of informed guesses, testing them against each other and observations, modifying them, and testing again.

Because the math of epidemiology is similar to the math of chemical kinetics, I’ve been following the modeling. It is also bootstrapping, guessing parameters, testing them, and modifying them. It’s a set of multiple parameters (an unknown number of them) being fitted to data that has serious limitations. The estimates get better as we get more data. That’s what Fauci is saying. Our first guess for herd immunity was around 70%. With almost a year of data, it looks like that could be as high as 90%.

This ties in with what I’ve been thinking, but I want to let the people who are expert in epidemiology and virology lead. I can see what they are doing, but they have knowledge that they’ve acquired through experience that I don’t have. Here’s my version of what’s behind Fauci’s warning.

We don’t know R0, the inherent rate of spread of SARS-CoV-2, and we won’t know for some time. Pulling it out of the data is a statistical operation and needs a lot of data. Additionally, the data are lumpy – that’s what people are talking about in “superspreaders.” The lumpiness is measured by another parameter, k. We don’t know k either.

We can measure the rate of spread in a particular situation. I’ll call that R, but it sometimes is designated RT and other names. I have seen confusion of R and R0, even from modelers, who should know better. R0 does not vary, but R does. However, the estimate of R0 changes with time, as more data comes in. Because the level of immunization depends on R0, that changes with time too. That’s what Fauci is saying.

New Mexico has recently gone from an R of about 1.3 to an R of about 0.86. That’s R, not R0. R above 1 means the number of cases is going up; less than 1, that the number is going down. The reason R has decreased for New Mexico has very little if anything to do with the virus itself or R0. It’s because people are acting more responsibly and staying home, wearing masks, practicing hygiene. Here’s a site that estimates up to date values of R for all the states, although they call it Rt.

In order to back out R0 from that, we need to know how much of that decrease is due to staying home, how much to wearing masks, and so on. It’s hard to get at those numbers. Modelers estimate them, try them out in the models against observation, modify them, and try again.

And k. Don’t forget k. Lumpy data can help or hinder the analysis. What I see so far is that it seems to be more of a hindrance.

Fauci is probably being conservative – it’s better to predict a more difficult situation so that people can be relieved when it’s not that bad – but there are many indications that the first guesses of 70% immunization for herd immunity are too low. As percent immunization goes up, estimates of R0 and k will improve.

SARS-CoV-2 won’t be easy to control. But we control measles, and it needs 95% herd immunity. A year ago, nobody – nobody! – was immune to SARS-CoV-2. That’s why it has swept the world. For the diseases we’re familiar with, most people have some immunity, whether old folks who had the measles when they were kids or residual immunities to the flu carried over poorly every year. Better times are coming.

Cross-posted to Nuclear Diner

Dr. Fauci’s WarningPost + Comments (137)

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