Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

This really is a full service blog.

Consistently wrong since 2002

Han shot first.

Peak wingnut was a lie.

A snarling mass of vitriolic jackals

Perhaps you mistook them for somebody who gives a damn – Nancy Pelosi

False Scribes! Falso Scribes!

I’d try pessimism, but it probably wouldn’t work.

Women: they get shit done

I’m going back to the respite thread.

And we’re all out of bubblegum.

Not all heroes wear capes.

Today in our ongoing national embarrassment…

Is it irresponsible to speculate? It is irresponsible not to.

Gastritis broke my calculator.

We are aware of all internet traditions.

How do you get liars to care about the truth?

No offense, but this thread hasn’t been about you for quite a while.

Let me eat cake. The rest of you could stand to lose some weight, frankly.

How has Obama failed you today?

They fucked up the fucking up of the fuckup!

Fuck these fucking interesting times.

Let there be snark.

This blog is Obama’s Katrina.

You are here: Home / Archives for Cheryl Rofer

Retired chemist. I've done a lot of chemistry that has to do with policy, particularly nuclear policy.

Cheryl Rofer has been a Balloon Juice writer since 2017.

How To Tell A Real Vaccine From A Political Stunt

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Donald Trump hinted that he could have an “October surprise” in a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine. That isn’t going to happen. The closest is Pfizer’s announcement that it may apply for emergency authorization for its vaccine before the end of November. But, of course, that’s after the election.

The pharmaceutical companies, fortunately, are more interested in preserving their credibility than in currying Trump’s favor. Perhaps they have calculated that Trump is unlikely to win a second term.

ProPublica has a long article on how vaccines are approved. If you want the whole story, check it out. Here’s a tl;dr that’s more like a checklist.

Emergency use authorization (EUA), the fastest way to get a vaccine approved by the FDA, requires three milestones:

  1. A clinical trial must observe enough infections to demonstrate that the vaccine is better than a placebo.
  2. Data from the trial must be part of an application to the Food and Drug Administration. The company could apply for full approval — a very high bar for proving the vaccine is safe, effective and able to be reliably manufactured by the millions of doses — or for an EUA, which requires less.
  3. The FDA reviews the data and decides whether the vaccine is ready for wide use. That could take several weeks to a month.

In the trials, some people receive vaccine and some a placebo. Nobody knows which is which until the results are analyzed. The companies determine interim checkpoints at which they analyze the numbers of people in the trial who contract covid naturally. Pfizer’s first checkpoint is at 32 cases. They have not made public how many cases they have observed so far. Estimates for when they will observe 32 infections are around the end of October or early in November. The date depends on how effective the vaccine is. Pfizer has four checkpoints altogether. If the vaccine were spectacularly successful or damaging, the trial would be stopped.

One person in the AstraZeneca trial had a bad reaction – we don’t know if it was from the vaccine – and that trial has been suspended to look into that reaction. Moderna thinks they may have early results in November, and Johnson & Johnson is just beginning a trial.

All the companies likely have their applications to the FDA written up, ready to drop the results in and send off. The paperwork is considerable – look at Pfizer’s clinical trial plan to get an idea of what is needed.

An EUA allows the use of the vaccine for the duration of the emergency – the pandemic we are in now. Full approval would allow the sale of the vaccine forever. An EUA can be issued more quickly than full approval, but the FDA has higher standards than usual for a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine; it wants at least two months of monitoring trial participants after their second shot. That may take longer than November. Safety is important for a vaccine that will be given to nearly everyone.

The FDA then has a multi-step review process. Not only the clinical trial results, but also the manufacturing facilities must be checked out. It then presents its assessment to an external review committee in a public meeting. The review committee then votes on whether to accept the FDA’s recommendation, and the FDA makes a final decision.

Warning signs are if steps are changed midstream or skipped. These bullets are directly from the ProPublica article.

  • If a company lowers the bar for efficacy. The first four vaccine contenders have all released their clinical trial rules (Pfizer, Moderna, AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson), so the public should be able to assess whether the shots have met the companies’ own standards to prove it works. If they unexpectedly change their schedules or the standards, that’s concerning.
  • If the FDA backtracks on its commitment to consult the independent advisory board, or if the agency’s leaders reject the committee’s advice, it would be a sign that they’re acting under political pressure without scientific support.
  • If FDA career scientists get overruled by political appointees, that would also be a major sign of political pressure. The decision on whether or not to authorize a vaccine will fall on Dr. Peter Marks, director of the Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research. FDA Commissioner Stephen Hahn, however, has authority to overrule Marks’s decision, and Secretary Alex Azar of the Department of Health and Human Services has the right to further overturn Hahn’s call.
  • If FDA officials quit. Marks has said he’d resign if the agency authorizes an unproven or unsafe vaccine.

Once a vaccine is approved, doses must be prepared and distributed. This will be an enormous undertaking and can be expected to run into glitches. Full distribution may take a year or more. Until then, we must continue to wear masks, distance ourselves, and limit gatherings. If Joe Biden is elected president, we will have more testing and a serious approach to public health, so we may not have to wait until most of us are vaccinated to lift many of the restrictions.

Cross-posted to Nuclear Diner

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Mike Pompeo’s War On Iran

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One of the many damages Donald Trump inflicts on the country is the inability to focus on events elsewhere in the world. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo uses Trump’s distractions to move closer to war with Iran.

Pompeo’s diplomacy begins by presenting a list of impossible demands to establish leverage for his next moves. In the case of arms control, the next move has been to pick up his marbles and go home. The US believes that Russia has been violating treaties. Instead of using the treaties’ mechanisms to bring Russia back into compliance, the US representative insisted that Russia publicly admit to its violations. When it didn’t, the US withdrew from the intermediate-range missile treaty and shot off a missile that would have violated the treaty. They are using the same strategy now to allow the New START Treaty, the last of the big arms control treaties, to lapse.

In May 2018, Pompeo presented a list of twelve demands to Iran. Iran has ignored those demands, which amount to Iran’s giving up its sovereignty. Pompeo and a number of allies, including Republican legislators, have long wanted a war with Iran. In addition to the twelve demands, they pressed Trump to withdraw from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, the carefully negotiated agreement that contains Iran’s nuclear program. Explicitly in response to that withdrawal, Iran has taken a number of steps in violation of the JCPOA which can be reversed if the United States returns to compliance.

Pompeo has used those Iranian violations an excuse to argue to the United Nations that “snapback sanctions,” a part of the JCPOA, should be imposed on Iran. The other members of the agreement correctly rejected this proposal by a non-party to the agreement.

Earlier this year in Iraq, the United States assassinated Qasim Soleimani, the commander of Iran’s Quds Force. In response, Iranian militias in Iraq have targeted Americans. I have not kept up fully with the back and forth except to note the absurdity of the phrase “restoring deterrence,” which is what Pompeo says he would like to do. Deterrence is a state in which action is not taken because of fear of retribution. Clearly the Iranian militias lack that fear. A reciprocal attack is probably within their calculations; “restoring deterrence” would require more and is a recipe for escalation.

But now Pompeo has found another path the could lead to war. He is pressuring the Iraqi government to get the Iranian militias under control. Yes, that is Iraq with a “q”. He says that the US will withdraw its embassy from Baghdad, possibly to Erbil in northern Iraq. Some American troops were recently withdrawn. A complete American withdrawal from Iraq would be a major victory for Iran.

After the 2003 US war against Iraq, the government crumbled, and it’s been difficult to build it back. Saddam Hussein was an enemy of Iran – Iraq and Iran fought a war through most of the 1980s. Removing the government of Iraq disrupted that power balance and allowed Iran to infiltrate its sympathizers into the new Iraq government.

Withdrawing the American embassy from Baghdad would not be a total withdrawal from Iraq, but it would make interactions with the Iraqi government more difficult. It would be a vote of no confidence in that government, weakening it among the Iraqi people. The Trump government has declared it will nearly halve its troops in Iraq to 3000 by the end of October.

Iran would flow into this vacuum. It’s possible that Pompeo’s threat is empty and he will not carry through, but empty threats indicate weakness and invite intervention. Iran has declared its desire to remove the United States from the region, and Pompeo may do that for them.

Today additional sanctions go into effect on Iran, in defiance of European allies protests. These sanctions are likely to limit Iran’s access to medical supplies, and other necessities to deal with the pandemic. Previous US sanctions on Iran have devastated its, but Iran has not budged on American demands.

Also today, Trump threatened Iran with nuclear war once again.

Iran responded to the US withdrawal from the JCPOA in measured and reversible fashion, giving little basis for war. Now that it looks like the Trump administration will be voted out of office in November, Pompeo is stepping up the actions he hopes will provoke Iran into a move that can be responded to with war.

A cause for Pompeo’s longed-for war is unlikely to show up in the next month. If Trump wins, Pompeo can continue his destruction and perhaps get that war in another year or two. If Joe Biden wins, he will attempt to mend the damage and bring the United States back into the JCPOA.

 

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Pelosi Moves On The 25th Amendment

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Earlier today, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi teased a press conference tomorrow: “We will be talking about the 25th Amendment.”

Anyone who has been following Donald Trump’s tweets lately, even in the most desultory way, has to have wondered what that amendment has to say about mental capability. Trump is recovering from covid-19, which is known to affect mental processes in some cases, and is taking dexamethasone, a steroid which is known to affect mental processes.

Details are coming out.

The relevant part of the 25th Amendment is Section 4:

Whenever the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive departments or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall immediately assume the powers and duties of the office as Acting President.

Thereafter, when the President transmits to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives his written declaration that no inability exists, he shall resume the powers and duties of his office unless the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive department or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit within four days to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office. Thereupon Congress shall decide the issue, assembling within forty-eight hours for that purpose if not in session. If the Congress, within twenty-one days after receipt of the latter written declaration, or, if Congress is not in session, within twenty-one days after Congress is required to assemble, determines by two-thirds vote of both Houses that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall continue to discharge the same as Acting President; otherwise, the President shall resume the powers and duties of his office.

The Vice President is necessary to declare that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office. But Congress has a role too. If Vice President Mike Pence finds it unseemly to initiate action to declare the President incapable, the House is generously offering to investigate the situation and provide cover if necessary.

At any rate, the Commission’s hearings should be interesting.

Open thread!

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Flood Them With Calls

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This is the debate setup for tonight.

It’s a farce and should not be allowed to proceed.

The phone number for the Commission for Presidential Debates is (202) 872-1020. You know what to do.

Open thread!

ETA: Voice mailbox is full. Anyone got email addresses?

And the Twitter handle is @debates.

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It’s Looking Like Amy Coney Barrett’s Announcement Was The Spreading Event

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At least three reporters who were there are experiencing symptoms.

And, of course, someone is making a trace and track spreadsheet.

Joe and Jill Biden have been tested and come up negative, as has Nancy Pelosi.

Trump was supposed to be on a phonecall this morning, and Mike Pence substituted for him.

Here’s the latest from the White House physician, if you care to believe it.

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Where We Are – 36 Days Out

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The New York Times now has Donald Trump’s income tax returns “extending over two decades”. They say that the returns come from a person who had legal access to them. The Times’s first article provides eighteen takeaways. They promise more to come. Each takeaway is a string that other news organizations can pull.

Trump runs through money and then manages to find yet another source to bankroll him. At this point, he owes $421 million to unknown parties. There are hints and guesses about connections to a hotel deal in Azerbaijan that appears to have laundered money for Iran’s Revolutionary Guard and to Deutsche Bank through Supreme Court Justice Anthony Kennedy’s son.

Dicey connections and unknown sources of money point to possible influence over Trump. We don’t know enough about them. At one time, there seems to have been an FBI counterintelligence investigation into these influences. Then, it was said, that investigation (or those investigations) were folded into the special counsel investigation led by Robert Mueller. We have learned, however, that Mueller deliberately avoided the counterintelligence implications.

Was there ever a counterintelligence investigation? Is there one now? This goes back to that New York Times October Surprise in 2016: Investigating Donald Trump, F.B.I. Sees No Clear Link to Russia. The Times has never apologized for or explained this article, nor its concurrent fascination with Hillary Clinton’s emails. If there was an investigation, what happened to its materials? Rod Rosenstein seems like a person who might know.

Shortly after the Times article on Trump’s taxes appeared, Brad Parscale was taken to a hospital by police officers called by his wife. He was threatening suicide after beating his wife. Since he’s a white guy, he wasn’t shot by police as so many Black people are. Demonstrations for Breona Taylor and Black Lives Matter continued through the week after no charges were brought against the police for her death.

Covid-19 continues to kill more than 200,000 people as Trump spreads disinformation. Trump has largely pushed Anthony Fauci and Deborah Birx out of his planning circle, if such still exists. Trump’s preference is clearly to pretend that there is no problem, that people are not dying. Republican governors eager to toady up to him are allowing bars and restaurants, major spreading sites, to open up. Trump, of course, has been having close-spaced, no-mask rallies, although he has conceded to the need for air circulation by holding many of them outdoors or in airport hangers. People infected now will by dying shortly before the election. Seems like a bad strategy.

Fauci and Birx have been replaced by Scott Atlas, a Fox commentator who actually is a doctor, but in radiology, a specialty far removed from infectious disease. Like a lot of armchair epidemiologists (largely financially well-off white men), he believes that it’s best to infect the population and see who survives. The total death toll for that, by a number of estimates, would be in the range of two million. Even Robert Redfield, another Trump creature, is concerned about Atlas’s advice. Trump is going in this direction as experts point out that a vaccine will not be ready before the election.cov

Trump also continues his disinformation campaign against the election. Although Russia in particular, and to a smaller degree, China and Iran are spreading disinformation, the largest and loudest source of disinformation is Trump’s tweets. Voting by mail is safe, although it is wise to do it as early as possible because of Postmaster General Louis De Joy’s vandalism. Trump seems to have subsided from his refusal to endorse a peaceful succession. He is unlikely ever to do that, but he is a coward.

Weekend polls show Joe Biden in the lead by 7 or so percentage points. Those polls were taken before the news of Trump’s tax returns broke. Biden continues to pick up endorsements – from almost 500 former military and national security officials, Tom Ridge, and Dwayne Johnson (“The Rock”). Senatorial races are moving well for Democrats also; Jaime Harrison has been getting a steady stream of money while Lindsey Graham has had to beg for money on Fox. The first debate between Trump and Biden is Tuesday night, and Trump is raving about drug tests. Nancy Pelosi is urging supporters to look at races that will tilt state representation Democratic in preparation for Trump funny business that throws the election into the House.

In other news, the administration is trying to run out the time to renew the New START Treaty, the only arms control treaty they have not destroyed. Russia is willing to extend the treaty, but the adminstration negotiator, Marshall Billingslea, continues to insist that China be a party and that Russia accept a number of conditions. Neither will happen. The treaty extends a couple of weeks after January 20, so it is possible that if Biden is elected, the treaty could be extended, although it will be very close.

Almost two months ago in Belarus, Alexander Lukashenka lost an election to Sviatlana Tsikanouskaya. Large demonstrations have taken place in all the main Belarusian cities since then. Lukashenka has begged Vladimir Putin for help, but Lukashenka has been cool to Putin’s desires for the two countries to effectively merge in the past, so what Putin has provided has been very limited. It’s also likely that Putin doesn’t want to be associated with a bloodbath, which is what it would take to end the demonstrations. Lukashenka had himself inaugurated as president in a private ceremony, but over the weekend Tsikanouskaya was inaugurated by the people in a large outdoor ceremony. European nations support Tsikanouskaya, and the US has even made a statement in her favor.

Tanks are rolling between Armenia and Azerbaijan, with Turkey supporting Azerbaijan and Russia taking Armenia’s side. The point of dispute is Nagorno-Karabakh, an Armenian enclave within Azerbaijan, not contiguous with Armenia. The territory has been a point of conflict since at least 1994. Syrian rebels are signing up to fight with Azerbaijan, but not many seem to be there yet.

Alexei Navalny is recuperating in Germany from Novichok poisoning, obviously by the Russian government, although their position is “Who us?” They have also seized his apartment, so it’s clear they don’t want him back.

Trump is in trouble. No candidate, according to various experts, has ever come back from a 7-point deficit at this time in the campaign, and Trump seems uninterested in broadening his appeal. It’s hard to see how the tax revelations help him, nor that he can turn around a stunning debate. Still, there is the electoral college and the willingness of some governors to aid and abet vote suppression.

He may also be in trouble for likely crimes represented in his tax returns. Although no crime has been proved by the Times articles, they document a number of questionable activities and coincidences. The question of Trump’s creditors hangs over all. Will the counterintelligence investigation be resumed? It seems important to know who the creditors are. They have enormous power over him, whether they are foreign or domestic.

Putin has troubles too. In addition to the demonstrations against his (flawed) man in Belarus, demonstrations are taking place in several cities in Russia. Now there’s another war in the south Caucasus. An arms race, which it looks like we’re heading into, benefits neither side.

My big-picture, 40,000-feet take is that we’re going to make it through to the inauguration of Joe Biden in January. But it won’t be pretty along the way.

 

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Morning Open Thread: Want A Coronavirus Test? Here, Have Some Body Armor

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Former defense industry lobbyist Mark Esper, in his current capacity as Secretary of Defense, diverted a billion dollars intended for medical supplies to procurement of body armor, dress uniforms, jet engine parts, and other goodies to keep his fellow contractors in business.

Among the awards: $183 million to firms including Rolls-Royce and ArcelorMittal to maintain the shipbuilding industry; tens of millions of dollars for satellite, drone and space surveillance technology; $80 million to a Kansas aircraft parts business suffering from the Boeing 737 Max grounding and the global slowdown in air travel; and $2 million for a domestic manufacturer of Army dress uniform fabric.

The Department of Defense has long been coddled relative to accountability. Its audits are billions of dollars off. It’s a symptom of our willingness to turn to military force before considering other options when we disagree with other countries. It predates the Trumpies. And now Donald Trump’s arms control envoy is advocating an arms race to “spend Russia into the ground.”

I like to think that the pandemic will make us rethink a great many things, and this penchant for violent action and shoveling money into the Pentagon is one of them.

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