When I lived in Scotland, I was told the legend of a lone MacDonald highlander, perched on the edge of the battlefield after the battle of Killiecrankie. The story goes that he was overheard keening: Twas a bad day today. As bad a day as yesterday. Will be a bad day tomorrow. The person who …
Adam L Silverman
War For Ukraine Day 130: The Ukraine Army Conducted a Retrograde Movement Out of Lysychansk
by Adam L Silverman| 56 Comments
This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine
Let’s begin tonight with the news out of eastern Ukraine. The Ukrainian forces in the Donbas have decided to pull back, thereby removing themselves from the salient where they’ve been exposed on three sides since late February/early March. So yeah – it’s eventually confirmed – the Ukrainian forces have orderly retreated from Lysychansk to escape …
Ukrainians!
All our defenders!
Today, two important professional holidays are celebrated in our country: the Day of the Naval Forces of Ukraine and the Day of Anti-Aircraft Missile Troops. I sincerely congratulate all defenders of Ukraine who serve in these troops, I congratulate all veterans of the fleet, all veterans of anti-aircraft missile troops. Thanks to your service and your bravery, thousands of lives of our people have been saved.
The Russian occupiers suffered very significant losses both at sea and in the sky. They have not had such losses for many decades. Thanks again for your service!
The main task of the state is to do everything for our heroes, our warriors from all branches of the army to have everything necessary for the defense of the state, to have the most modern weapons. It is not easy, it takes a lot of effort, it requires many negotiations, but we will ensure such a supply. Ukraine will reach the level when the fire superiority of the occupiers will be nullified. We are not losing a single day – we convince our partners, establish new connections, use all opportunities – political, diplomatic, information…
Today, the Russian army once again brutally shelled Slovyansk, Kramatorsk, Kharkiv with MLRS and “Smerch” systems. In Slovyansk alone, six people are on the list of dead, and about twenty are wounded. A girl died, her name was Yeva. She would have turned 10 in August this year…
Russia has enough Smerch, Uragan and Grad systems to destroy city after city in Ukraine. They have now accumulated their largest firepower in Donbas. And they can use tens of thousands of artillery shells every day on one section of the front. This is reality. That is why we destroy the potential of the occupiers – day after day, calculatedly, powerfully. And, of course, the HIMARS systems we received and other weapons from partners play an important role in this. The fact that we protect the lives of our soldiers, our people, plays an equally important role. We will rebuild the walls, we will regain the land, but people must be saved above all else.
And if the command of our army withdraws people from certain points of the front where the enemy has the greatest fire superiority, in particular this applies to Lysychansk, it means only one thing: we will return thanks to our tactics, thanks to the increase in the supply of modern weapons.
Ukraine does not give anything up. And when someone over there in Moscow reports something about the Luhansk region – let them remember their reports and promises before February 24, in the first days of this invasion, in the spring and now. Let them really evaluate what they got over this time and how much they paid for it. Because their current reports will turn into dust just as the previous ones. We are gradually moving forward – in the Kharkiv region, in the Kherson region and at sea: Zmiinyi is a good example of this. There will be a day when we will say the same about Donbas.
The Prime Minister of Australia visited Kyiv today. A historical moment. And this is a very important visit. Australia is one of the top countries in terms of its level of support. We have already received significant defense assistance from it. Today, Mr. Prime Minister announced a new support package. I am grateful to him for that. Australia will also increase sanctions against Russia. This is the result of our constant activity, which increases the cost of this war for Russia.
The Russian economy found itself in the biggest crisis in the last 50 years. The world severs ties with Russia. The words “collapse”, “deficit” and “poverty” will be the description of Russian life as long as this state wants to be a terrorist state.
They lost more than 35 thousand soldiers, and this is a conservative estimate. What is all this for? For the sake of insane propagandists to be able to show a Russian or Soviet flag on the ruins somewhere in their broadcasts… There is simply no other answer.
It is clear to everyone in the world – and, I am sure, to all the sane people in Russia itself – that Ukraine will win. It’s only a matter of time. It is a matter, unfortunately, of the losses we suffer, primarily of people. It is a matter of modern weapons, which we must get and will definitely get.
Tomorrow there will be a conference in Switzerland dedicated to the reconstruction of Ukraine. Today in Kyiv, I met with the President of the International Olympic Committee, and one of his initiatives is the convening of a special conference to raise funds for the restoration of Ukrainian sports infrastructure… These and many other international initiatives simply would not exist if the world doubted our victory.
Therefore, we must continue focused work, fight and beat the occupiers until we regain our entire country. Ukraine will be free.
I am grateful to everyone who defends the state!
Glory to Ukraine!
Here is today’s operational update from Ukraine’s MOD (emphasis mine):
The operational update regarding the russian invasion on 18.00 on July 03, 2022
The one hundred thirtieth (130) day of the heroic resistance of the Ukrainian people to a russian military invasion continues.
russian enemy continues to launch rocket attacks on civilian objects on the territory of Ukraine.
There are no significant changes in the position and nature of the activities of the armed forces of the republic of belarus in the Volyn and Polissya directions.
On the Siverskyi direction, the enemy fired artillery and mortars at the border settlements of Bachivsk and Vovkivka, Sumy oblast.
In the Kharkiv direction, the occupiers are concentrating their main efforts on preventing the advance of our troops in the direction of the state border. The enemy carried out artillery fire in the areas of the settlements of Zolochiv, Khrestyshche, Malynivka, Cherkaska Lozova and Chepil.
In the Slovyansk direction, the enemy shelled the territory near Dolyna, Kurulka, Bogorodychne, Adamivka and Husarivka with artillery. Ukrainian units repelled the assault in the direction of Pasika – Dolyna.
In the direction of Kramatorsk, the enemy has forced the Siverskyi Donets River, is trying to develop success and take possession of Bilohorivka. Fire continues to influence units of our troops in order to constrain their actions. Artillery shelling was recorded near Hryhorivka and Bilohorivka.
In the Lysychansk direction, the enemy is shelling from barrel artillery in the areas of Zolotarivka and Verkhnokamyanka settlements. It led an assault in the direction of Zolotarivka and took control of the settlement.
In the direction of Bakhmut, the occupiers are shelling the districts of Soledar, Pokrovske, Bakhmut, and Klynove with artillery.
Ukrainian soldiers successfully repulsed offensive actions in the direction of Nyrkove – Berestove. Also, the enemy unsuccessfully tried to carry out combat reconnaissance in the direction of Vasylivka – Berestove. Conducted assault operations in the Vovchoyarivka – Spirne and Mykolaivka – Spirne directions. Suffered significant losses and withdrew.
In the Avdiivka, Kurakhivka, Novopavlivka, and Zaporizhzhia directions, in order to restrain the actions of our units, the enemy carried out artillery shelling of the areas of the settlements of Avdiivka, Pisky, Novomykhailivka, Vremivka, Hulyaipole, Charivne. Airstrikes near Kamianka, Avdiivka and Shevchenko.
In the South Buh direction, the enemy is concentrating its efforts on preventing the advance of units of the Defense Forces on probable offensive lines. Takes measures for the logistical support of the troops and improves the engineering equipment of the positions.
The aggressor continues to launch missile attacks on military and civilian infrastructure facilities in the Mykolaiv direction with the aim of reducing the offensive capabilities of our troops.
We believe in the Armed Forces of Ukraine! Together to victory!
Glory to Ukraine!
Here is today’s assessment from Britain’s MOD.
Britian’s MOD did not post an updated map for today.
I want to highlight this thread by The Kyiv Independent‘s defense correspondent Illia Ponomarenko:
It is already using pretty much all conventional weaponry it can deploy, including ballistic missiles and strategic bombers. It has committed pretty much all of its combat-capable manpower available for foreign operations.
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) July 3, 2022
- And it runs low on reserves and manpower in general as operations in Ukraine are extremely slow and costly. The shock of the cringe-krieg of February and March is over. Much of its most combat-capable formations, including airborne and naval infantry, have been…
- …severely depleted in the failed February offensive. The Battle of Donbas goes on for over 70 days now. And Severodonetsk and Lysychansk are what Russia has managed to achieve amid immense effort, losses, and the commitment of nearly 45% of its forces in Ukraine…
- …including collaborationist forces in occupied Donbas, which is subject to relentless general mobilization due to a severe lack of manpower. In Russia, they continuously have problems generating high-quality forces with its “covert mobilization.”
- That’s why their advances are so extremely slow, costly, and painful. +0.3% to occupied Ukrainian territories through June should tell you a lot about Russia’s military might in 2022. And that’s at expense of other axes in the south.
- Even in Donbas, they have failed to achieve their main objective and had to set much more narrow goals. They celebrated the taking of Toshkivka as if they had seized Dnipro. In some aspects, such as the use of UAVs, they run far behind the Ukrainian military.
- They’d defeat the Ukrainian military and occupy most of Ukraine if they could, but all they can is to be smashing their faces against Severodonetsk for three months until they raze it to the ground and occupy the dead ashes.
- It’s been the 5th month, but Russia has not even managed to impose full supremacy in the air, and its sustains losses in the sea. It has lost at least 800 tanks — which corresponds to the armored force of the UK, France, Germany, and Italy combined.
- It is unlikely to be able to take the whole of Donbas, let alone the whole of Ukraine, given the weak battle performance Russia is demonstrating. In the present condition, it has zero chances in a conventional war with NATO. Lots of myths have been busted here.
- We’ve been hearing this “let’s not provoke Putin” for months. But then the West started sending Ukraine tank killers, then advanced artillery, then MLRSs, then air defense. Guess what — no “escalation” followed. What followed…
- …was Ukrainian military getting stronger and more capable of putting a real end to this war end sooner. The only sort of “escalation” Russia is capable of is firing hordes of missiles against Ukrainian civilians as Ukraine’s military smashes Russian ammo depots with new M142s.
- And don’t get me started on scary nukes and the global holocaust — those guys in the Kremlin are very much in love with luxury, money, and being alive. And they are afraid of declaring official mobilization and calling this a war, let alone hitting the red button.
- At the rate of advance seen in June (+0.3% of Ukraine’s territory) it would take Russia nearly 22 years to completely seize the rest of the country (80% now) It’s just for you to understand their results compared to their goals at this point.
I think this is an excellent analysis of what has happened so far.
Helsingin Sonomat, a major Finnish subscription newspaper, has details on how much ammunition Russia is burning through to achieve their very limited gains so far:
According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Russia exported 20 rail carloads of artillery ammunition from Belarus to the Russian side last week, reports the news agency Ukrinform . According to the news agency, the train was heading towards the city of Belgorod, and the ammunition was intended for the front in eastern Ukraine.
But is 20 train cars a lot?
Artillery ammunition is heavy, so instead of volume, it is their weight that matters in the cargo. The 152-millimeter grenades used by the Russians typically weigh about 40 kilograms when fired, the 122-millimeter ones only half that.
With an average weight of thirty kilograms, about 2,500 rounds of ammunition would go into a 70-ton train car, if smaller and older ammunition were also included. There would thus be around 50,000 pieces of ammunition in a hose of 20 wagons.
Ukraine’s Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maljar estimated in last Sunday’s The Washington Post that Russia fires more than 60,000 artillery shells in Ukraine every day, Ukraine only a tenth of this.
If Maljar’s assessment is even close to being correct, the use of artillery in Ukraine is completely pointless. The war is being fought not only in the east but also on the southern fronts, but most of the fighting is concentrated on a few targets of intense fire in the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine.
The largest artillery battle in the Nordic countries took place at the end of the Continuation War in Tali-Ihantala. The battle lasted fifteen days and as a result, Finland managed to stop the advance of the Soviet army.
On July 3, 1944, the Finnish artillery fired more than 12,000 rounds on the hottest day. According to Finnish accounts, the Soviet Union’s heaviest day of firing was June 28, 1944, when the Red Army’s tubes fired 14,000 rounds at Finnish positions.
The huge consumption of artillery ammunition has completely confused the world ammunition market. Brokers are competing for ammunition, and Russia is trying to prevent the delivery of ammunition to Ukraine as much as it can.
The events related to the ammunition also show that Russia has been preparing for the ongoing war years ago.
More at the link, but you’ll need to use a translation tool.
The Washington Post has the details on just how Russia was preparing for war regarding ammunition: sabotaging and destroying Ukraine’s stocks:
KYIV, Ukraine — Ukraine is running out of shells for the majority of its artillery in part because of a clandestine Russian campaign of bullying and sabotage over the past eight years, including bombings of key munitions depots across Eastern Europe that officials have linked to Moscow, according to Ukrainian government officials and military analysts.
Fighting in eastern and southern Ukraine is now almost exclusively a near-constant exchange of artillery, and Ukraine’s shortage of shells has exacerbated what was already a mismatch on the battlefield against a Russian military with more weapons. Russia is firing more than 60,000 shells per day — 10 times more than the Ukrainians, Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar told The Washington Post.
Most of Ukraine’s artillery pieces date back to the Soviet Union, meaning they rely on the same 122mm- and 152mm-caliber rounds that Russia uses. But outside of Russia, very little supply exists — in large part because Russia spent years targeting Ukrainian and other Eastern European ammunition storage facilities and suppliers before launching its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in late February. Russia has also taken other steps to acquire the ammunition or otherwise prevent its sale to Ukraine.
“Even if everyone gives us this ammunition, it will still not be enough,” Malyar said, adding that Ukraine uses more of the 152mm shells than are produced globally in one day.
A sort of shadow war is taking place for what few 152mm shells are available on the global market. A U.S. citizen helping to broker weapons transfers to Ukraine said he recently approached an Eastern European country to negotiate a purchase of artillery rounds. Officials in that country said they couldn’t make a deal, the man said, because the Russians had already warned that they would “kill them if they sold anything to the Ukrainians.”
The arms broker was interviewed on the condition of anonymity to speak frankly.
The countries that still have stocks of 152mm rounds are largely former Soviet republics, many of which are hesitant to sell to Ukraine because they maintain close ties with Russia. Some African and Middle Eastern countries, which have received weapons and ammunition from Russia over the years, also have stocks of those shells. A few former Warsaw Pact countries have the capacity to manufacture the shells but not at the scale and speed Ukraine needs on the battlefield.
The arms broker said he has had to make some weapons transfers appear as if they traveled through an unrelated country to obscure the origin of the purchase. In other cases, Ukraine thought it had a deal done, but then a buyer working on behalf of Russia swooped in at the last minute and aggressively outbid, he said.
Malyar said that “the Russians are working very hard to ensure that we can’t sign contracts for this — and then if we sign a contract, to prevent us from getting the shells delivered here.”
Russia has long known that in a drawn-out war of attrition against Ukraine, Kyiv would risk running out of ammunition, military analysts said. Ukraine knew it was a weakness, too, but the situation didn’t become dire until Russian troops and tanks rolled across its northern, eastern and southern borders on Feb. 24. The first round of airstrikes early that morning also targeted Ukrainian ammunition stocks.
“There were some concerns, and there were constant discussions that we need to produce the ammunition ourselves,” said Andriy Zagorodnyuk, a former Ukrainian defense minister.
“But even if the Ukrainian government started manufacturing, the facility would’ve been destroyed by Russians on Day 1,” he added.
In 2014, after Russia first invaded Ukraine and fueled a separatist war in the country’s east, members of the elite Russian military intelligence unit 29155 sabotaged ammunition stored at depots in the Czech Republic, according to Czech authorities.
The following year, according to Bellingcat, a Britain-based investigative organization, members of the same unit used a nerve agent to poison a Bulgarian weapons executive, who told the New York Times he had been storing ammunition at the Czech facilities and had sold arms to Ukraine.
Russian saboteurs are also suspected of causing four explosions at Bulgarian arms depots from 2011 to 2020, according to Bulgarian prosecutors, who have said Moscow was aiming to disrupt supplies to Ukraine and Georgia.
Ukrainian officials suspect Russian and separatist saboteurs extended the effort inside Ukraine in recent years, leading to a series of explosions at ammunition storage facilities.
Blasts in 2017 at two big Ukrainian depots, which together had stored 221 metric tons of ammunition, dealt a massive setback to Ukrainian forces, sapping them of critical supplies that would be difficult and expensive to replace.
The secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council at the time, Oleksandr Turchynov, said the two blasts in March and September 2017 ruined “an enormous amount of ammunition” and represented the biggest blow to Ukraine’s defense capability since the start of the conflict with Russia.
An explosion the following year at a depot in the Chernihiv region storing another 88,000 metric tons of ammunition was another setback for the Ukrainian arsenal.
Much, much more at the link. But this reporting, from 24 June at The Washington Post and from today at The Helsingin Sonomat provide important context to President Zelenskyy’s, Defense Minister Reznikoff’s, and other Ukrainian officials almost frantic appeals for more ammunition, as well as NATO standards weapons systems and ammunition to replace them.
The Washington Post also has recent reporting on the utility and effectiveness of the NATO standards weapons systems and ammunition that Ukraine has recently brought online:
EASTERN UKRAINE — The premier weapon in Ukraine’s arsenal drove down a dirt road not marked on any maps, along a sunflower field, before its military minders parked it between trees — the branches shielding it from the Russian drones that are no doubt hunting for it.
The M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System, commonly known as HIMARS, is one of four that Ukrainians received last month from the United States as part of a $700 million military aid package. The soldiers assigned to this one already adorned the inside with a picture of a scantily clad woman, an air freshener and rosary beads. The outside has three small black skulls stenciled on it — one for every target successfully hit.
“We actually have six,” said this system’s chief, whose call sign is Kuzya. “We just haven’t had a chance to add the other three yet.”
After public frustration over Western delays in transferring promised heavy weaponry, specifically multiple-launch rocket systems such as the HIMARS, the Ukrainians have quickly put their new hardware to work more than four months after Russia launched its full-scale invasion. Kuzya and his comrades said their targets so far have focused on Russian command posts — warehouses where enemy officers and weaponry were stationed.
Ukrainian officials say the new Western materiel is already making a difference on the battlefield — a testament to the importance of continued security assistance and the painful cost of slow-moving deliveries as the Russian military slowly expands its control in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region. Artillery strikes from French self-propelled howitzers stationed in the port city of Odessa reportedly forced the Russians to withdraw Thursday from the strategically important Snake Island in the Black Sea.
The Biden administration promised to send Ukraine four more HIMARS as part of an additional $450 million in aid announced last week. All four were prepositioned in Europe, and training on those systems has already begun with the Ukrainian troops who will use them, according to a Pentagon spokesman.
“What we used before was a lot more worrisome,” said the four-person team’s gunner, whose role is to input the target’s coordinates. His call sign is Moroz, which translates to “frost.”
The HIMARS brings more peace of mind, the soldiers said. With their old equipment, they avoided rocket trajectories that passed through any population settlements, limiting them to only shooting through fields and forests, to avoid potentially harming civilians, Moroz said.
And now?
“I don’t have any doubts about what we’ll hit,” Moroz said. “I know the rocket will hit its target because it’s navigated by satellite.”
“We were also surprised that such a high-precision weapon could shoot so quietly,” Kuzya said.
Much, much more at the link.
I think that’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
I found the link in case you want to bid on Patron’s t-shirt. That’s the one we featured the other night:
👕🐶 The Dog #Patron puts autographed T-shirt up for auction
🐕🐈 Patron said he originally hoped the auction would raise money to buy a boat for his fellow deminers. He changed his mind after seeing a post about animals affected by the war.#WeAreFromUa#dog pic.twitter.com/YjlZr09xS2
— U24 (@u24_news) July 3, 2022
If you want to bid on it, go to this link. Here’s the description:
Patron’s T-shirt, the most famous sapper dog in the world
The Patron is a Ukrainian explosive sniffer dog, a Jack Russell Terrier, the mascot of a detachment of deminers engaged in demining areas in the Chernihiv region. Since the start of the war with the Russian occupiers, he has helped detect dozens of explosive devices abandoned by invaders and become the world’s most famous dog.
During the war, the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky awarded Patron a medal “For Dedicated Service.” At the 75th Cannes Film Festival, a sapper dog received a “PalmDogManitarian” for the connection between humanity and dogs.
Patron donates his only T-shirt to help rescue dogs and cats with UAanimals and provide his four-legged friends with necessary food and treatment.
Lot is a unique T-shirt created in a single copy with the Wanderlust brand for the official merch Patron. The sapper dog left his autograph on his T-shirt.
There is a link below the description I copied and pasted that will take you to the actual auction page, which is set for 8 July. In case you’re interested in placing a bid.
And here’s a video from Patron’s official TikTok page:
@patron__dsns
Patron is clearly trying to free his friend from the cone of shame!
Open thread!
War For Ukraine Day 129: The War In the East Grinds On
by Adam L Silverman| 25 Comments
This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine
Here’s President Zelenskyy’s address to Ukraine from earlier this evening. Video below, English transcript after the jump: (emphasis mine)
War For Ukraine Day 129: The War In the East Grinds OnPost + Comments (25)
Good health to you, fellow Ukrainians!
We are actively preparing for the start of a special conference in Lugano, Switzerland. Its first day is on Monday. A large-scale international event dedicated to the reconstruction of our country. Reconstruction in the broad sense of the word. It is necessary not only to restore everything that the occupiers destroyed, but also to create a new basis for our life, for Ukraine – safe, modern, convenient, barrier-free. This requires colossal investments – billions, new technologies, best practices, new institutions and, of course, reforms.
And already on Monday, Ukraine will present in Lugano a national view on how to implement all this.
In fact, this is the largest economic project of our time in Europe and extraordinary opportunities for every state, for every company that we will invite to work in Ukraine to prove themselves.
The territory of 10 regions was affected by hostilities after February 24. During this time, we managed to liberate 1,027 cities and towns, and another 2,610 are still under Russian occupation. And most of them need to be reconstructed, hundreds of them were completely destroyed by the Russian army, they actually have to be rebuilt from scratch. But besides that, dozens of cities in other regions of Ukraine were hit by missiles. Hundreds of enterprises were destroyed. Among them there are also complex, very dangerous industries – chemistry, metallurgy…
Of course, we have already begun to restore normal life in liberated communities and territories on our own. But implementing such a large-scale project across the country, providing new safety standards and a new quality of life is possible only by attracting international capabilities.
Therefore, the Conference in Lugano can become an important step for the reconstruction of Ukraine. And when we implement this project – and I am sure that it will happen – this event might be considered its beginning.
Although a lot still needs to be done for our victory – and it is a difficult path, because the war continues – but already now we must do everything possible so that the aggressor loses not only on the battlefield, but also historically, conceptually… So that everyone in Russia remembers that Ukraine cannot be broken by anything, by anyone, even by a brutal war.
Today, the Russian army continued to fire missiles at our cities. As of the evening alone, there have already been six missile strikes, a total of 12 missiles. Mykolaiv, the Donetsk region… The airstrikes continued. Fierce hostilities continue along the entire frontline, in Donbas – the epicenter is, of course, in the cities of the Luhansk region. The enemy’s activity in the Kharkiv region is intensifying. We managed to oust the occupiers from Ivanivka, Kherson region, we continue to put pressure in the south of our country…
In many cities in the rear there is a feeling of relaxation now, but the war is not over – it goes on. Unfortunately, its cruelty is increasing in some places, and it cannot be forgotten. Therefore, help the army, help volunteers, help everyone who was left alone at this time. And constantly use all your contacts abroad, all your information opportunities – even just social networks to spread the truth about the war and about the crimes of the occupiers on our land.
Tomorrow and during the week there will be important negotiations and meetings for Ukraine – we do not reduce diplomatic activity for a single day. We also expect new decisions from partners regarding defense assistance to our state…
The main thing, no matter how difficult it is for us today, we must remember that there will be tomorrow. And tomorrow should bring maximum benefit to Ukraine – everyone should do absolutely everything possible for this.
I am thankful to all our defenders!
You are doing great! You are strong!
Glory to Ukraine!
There was no operational update posted for today by Ukraine’s MOD.
Here is Britain’s MOD’s assessment for today:
They did not post an updated map today.
Here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Commander Chuck Pfarrer’s most recently posted updated analysis and map for the Sievierodonetsk axis:
SIEVERODONETSK AXIS / 0300 UTC 1 JULU /UKR has established strong defensive line in urban area of Vovchoyarska: RU has stalled on P-66 HWY at Bila Hora; RU forces will likely continue offensive operations against the petroleum complex at Vovchoirvik. pic.twitter.com/oE4J8VdKbI
— Chuck Pfarrer (@ChuckPfarrer) July 1, 2022
The DOD held a backgrounder yesterday (emphasis mine):
STAFF: All right. Good afternoon everybody. This is (Edited) from Defense Press Operations. Thank you for joining us for the call today. As you’re aware, the president authorized an additional security assistance package for Ukraine earlier today. We want to give you the opportunity to ask questions, so we’ve brought in a subject matter expert for you. Our ground rules, please refer to our subject matter expert as a Senior Defense Official. For your informational purposes, the subject matter expert today is (Edited). She’s the (Edited). She will open with some brief comments and then we’ll go to Q&A. We have about — we have a 30 minute hard stop. I apologize, but what I’ll do is I’ll turn it over to her and then we’ll go to the Q&A. Thanks.
SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: Thank you. It’s a pleasure to be here again. I know it’s only been a week since we last spoke about the last security assistance package, and I want to, you know, at the outset thank you for your patience. I know we shifted this call slightly based on me being stuck in a meeting across the river, and also, you know, obviously Friday before 4th of July weekend, appreciate your time before the holiday here. So what I’d like to do is just briefly touch on a few battlefield developments just to give my take on them, some context and then discuss briefly the — the package of security assistance, the $820 million package that the president authorized today. So quickly on the battlefield update, you know three things that I wanted to touch on.
First, I know Snake Island, the — the — the retreat of Russia from Snake Island has been in the news. I — you know, I just wanted to foot stomp that. We do not believe there is any credence to what Russia is saying that this was a gesture of good will. In fact, you know, the way we view this development is that the Ukrainians were very successful at applying significant pressure on the Russians, including by using those harpoon missiles that they recently acquired to attack a re-supply ship. And when you realize how barren and deserted Snake Island is, you — you understand the importance of re-supply. So the Ukrainians made it very hard for the Russians to sustain their operations there, made them, you know, very vulnerable to Ukrainian strikes. So that is, of course, is why Russia left the island and, you know, this isn’t a panacea of course but it does make it a lot easier to defend Odessa and in the future to be able to open up those sea lanes without Russia controlling Snake Island.
But just to underscore the real challenge in the Black Sea of course is Russia’s blockade. So the second thing I just wanted to touch on, everybody’s watching the fighting in the Donbas very closely. It is still this grinding war of attrition and, you know, since Ukraine conducted the managed retrograde that we spoke about last week, from — from Severondonetsk. Now all eyes are on Lisichansk and, you know, we are seeing Russia, you know, claiming — claiming dominance but I will — I will tell you there is active fighting in the — in the town and fighting particularly around the oil refinery. And I think this is another one of these examples where we see Russia paying such a high price for tiny bits of gains in terms of territory, and — and — and that is the case today in Lisichansk.
The other thing to note is that, you know, that we’re watching Ukraine’s use of the HIMARS and we’re seeing them having a good deal of success in employing these — these HIMARS. You know, to — to include things like targeting command posts, so this is a very positive development in — in the east.
And then last but not least, the development that I wanted to mention about this tragic Russian attack on June 27th on the shopping center. We do believe that the missile that was used was highly likely designed as an anti-ship weapon, and what’s, you know, what’s significant about this is, you know, this is not a weapon that would have been optimized for accuracy against ground targets in an urban environment. So it’s just yet another example of how Russia is using systems in a reckless fashion that result in significant collateral damage. So those are the battlefield updates that I just wanted to touch on and then turning to the announcement today of the $820 million in additional security assistance for Ukraine.
This combined both presidential drawdown and Ukraine security assistance initiative funding. So taking those in turn, the drawdown is the 14th drawdown of equipment from DOD inventory since August of last year. And it — it– this is a $50 million package and it is exclusively focused on additional ammunition for those HIMAR system, the High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems. And it is once again the, what we call the GMLRS, Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System munitions that we are providing.
Now under the Ukraine security assistance initiative, we are providing three different capabilities. One is additional rounds of 155 millimeter artillery ammunition. This is really a staple of — of the fight in the — the Donbas and we’re providing up to 150,000 rounds. We’re also providing for additional counter artillery radars, also very useful for this fight, in artillery fight but the item that’s new that I wanted draw your attention to is two NASAMS systems. So this is, NASAMS stands for National Advanced Surface to Air Missile Systems, and this was a system that was co-produced with Norway. So we appreciate, you know, Norway’s support for us to be able to provide this system to Ukraine and this is an air defense system that obviously produced — co-produced by the U.S. and Norway is a — a NATO system. So for us, it’s — it’s important for us to be able to start to help the Ukrainians transition their air defense system from what is now a Soviet type system, to be able to introduce some of this modern technology.
Now I do want to emphasize and we’ve spoken about this before, the Ukrainians are doing a magnificent job of employing their existing air defense systems, but we all know that a Soviet type system means that it’s Russian made. And so, over time it will be harder to sustain with the spare parts, so that’s why we want to make sure that they — they have access to modern air defense systems. The other thing I want to just mention, I think everyone knows this but it’s probably worth restating. Drawdown, so that’s the — the — the HIMARS munitions in this package, it comes directly from U.S. stocks. So that’s coming straight from the U.S. military, whereas Ukraine security assistance initiative, this — these are items that are going out and procuring from industry. So what you’ll typically see with the timelines, you’ll see drawdown is happening in a matter of days, whereas the items that we’re procuring from industry through our contracting process, those items typically take more like weeks or even months. So I just want to — to — to flag that.
So I think the only thing to leave you with, you know, the grand totals at this point, the U.S. has committed $7.6 billion in security assistance to Ukraine since the beginning of the Biden Administration and that’s $6.9 billion since the beginning of the invasion on February 24th. So that’s, you know, we’re — we’re — we’re definitely continuing steadily to — to provide assistance to Ukraine in its time of need. So I’ll open it up there.
Q&A at the link.
What the Senior Defense Official has delineated above about the Security Assistance that the US and our allies are providing is all good news. However, as we’ve been discussing going back to the newsletter that Cole asked me to do when the site was down, if the Republicans retake the House of Representatives it is all going to stop. On the first day of the next Congress. Which is what Putin is counting on happening.
Russia is betting that Republicans take over in 2023. They know that Trump @mattgaetz @RepMTG will cut of funds to Ukraine. Leaving it defenseless. pic.twitter.com/tzHENKY25k
— Ruben Gallego (@RubenGallego) July 2, 2022
The bottom of Congressman Gallego’s screen grab got cut off in his tweet. Here’s the whole thing:
They’re not subtle. And the Russians are amplifying their messaging:
Yet again, Marjorie Taylor Greene's comments are being used by Kremlin propagandists on Russian state TV. State TV host and State Duma member Evgeny Popov is interpreting her statements to mean that she wants Americans to help Putin win in Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/nYLntOYdtb
— Julia Davis (@JuliaDavisNews) July 2, 2022
Something something aid, something something comfort, something something enemy…
As the Senior Defense Official mentioned, the Ukrainians forced the Russians off of Snake Island on Thursday:
Operational Command South confirms, the russian occupiers have left the Snake Island.
They couldn’t stand the weather – the ground was burning under their feet, the sea was boiling, the air was too hot.
P.S. russian warships go f…ck yourselves!— Defence of Ukraine (@DefenceU) June 30, 2022
Let’s wrap it up tonight with a Kyivan (or wherever she’s from in Ukraine) Valkyrie!
Our female soldiers ✊🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/qtHil0tl9o
— ТРУХА⚡️English (@TpyxaNews) July 2, 2022
And we finish with your daily Patron!
💬If you've ever been told: "You can't do it,” "Don't bite off more than you can chew," don't be offended. Look carefully at this person and remember their facial expression. Then go about your business. And when everything works out, remember that look on their face and smile. pic.twitter.com/empI6T1Zm6
— U24 (@u24_news) July 2, 2022
And from Patron’s official TikTok, someone had an unauthorized snack!
@patron__dsns Саочатку не беруть з собою на роботу, а потім дивуються, чому в них псуються тапки.. #патрондснс #песпатрон #славаукраїні
Here’s the English translation of the caption:
They don’t take saochatka with them to work, and then they wonder why their sneakers get damaged.. #patrondsns #pespatron #slavaukraini
I’m sure Gin&Tonic will be along to confirm, but I gather “soachatka” is a Ukrainian term for athletic shoe.
Open thread!
The First Day Begins With MG Buford’s Cavalry Division Deployed To the North and the West of Gettysburg Along McPherson and Seminary Ridges
by Adam L Silverman| 49 Comments
This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Military, Open Threads, Silverman on Security, War
It’s been a very busy, and for many of us rough, couple of weeks with seemingly no relief in sight. For those of us in the US we are all limping into the Independence Day 2022 weekend. In Canada, which celebrates Canada Day today, there was once again violence at the War Memorial in Ottawa. …
Staying Safe While Protesting Redux
by Adam L Silverman| 33 Comments
This post is in: Balloon Juice, Civil Rights, Commentary, Domestic Politics, Gay Rights Are human Rights, Open Threads, Organizing & Resistance, Our Failed Political Establishment, Politics, Silverman on Security, The War On Women, Women's Rights
I have been informed that a number of you all were asking if we could repost my suggestions for staying safe while protesting. Watergirl was good enough to proactively go and dig at least one of the versions/reposts of the original post from December 2018. We’ll resume our war updates tomorrow night. I’ve made an …
War For Ukraine Day 126: President Zelenskyy Addresses NATO, NATO Releases Its New Strategic Concept, and (Some of) the Defenders of Mariupol Are Returned Home
by Adam L Silverman| 33 Comments
This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine
Because President Zelenskyy addressed the NATO summit today, we’ve got a twofer of his speeches this evening. I’ll start with his address to NATO with the video above the jump followed by the English transcript after it (emphasis mine). Unlike his nightly addresses, there are no English subtitles available for his address to NATO.
Dear Mr. Secretary General!
Ladies and Gentlemen!
I am grateful for the opportunity to address you today at the NATO Summit, which will be crucial and groundbreaking.
Today is really the beginning of a new history. Not just for NATO’s eastern flank, but for the entire Alliance. For the whole Euro-Atlantic community. In a time of extremely aggressive Kremlin, the world needs an extremely bold Alliance.
And I am sure that the next summit in a year will show the results of this summit and what the future of NATO will be. I am grateful once again for this opportunity, and my address to you at the next NATO summit, next year – with my direct participation, not this online format – will be a testament to our common victory. But next year could be a worse situation – if not only Ukraine, but also several other states, possibly members of the Alliance, come under fire from Russia. And then it will be our common failure – Ukraine and NATO.
You are all well aware of what Russia’s goals really are. For many years it has been threatening to start a war. Threatened – if Ukraine joins NATO. But Ukraine is not in NATO, and Russia’s full-scale war against our state has been ongoing for 126 days – after 8 years of war in Donbas. So why has everyone believed for decades that it was NATO that could provoke Russia into something by its actions?
Russia’s goals are known. They are obvious. The Russian leadership sees the world differently. Not like you. They see Lithuania, for example, not as a member of your Alliance, but as a republic of the Soviet Union. For us, it is an independent state and has long been a former republic of the USSR, for us it is the past, and they see it as a possible future, they want to enslave it again. They consider it that way. They see it that way. And the same goes for every country that is Russia’s neighbor. For every state that was once under Moscow’s influence.
Only now – at this summit – will you identify Russia as your main threat, but you have been an enemy for them for a really long time already. And the ideology of Russia is based on this, it is reflected one hundred percent in its propaganda, its task is to break you, to put pressure on you. And it is surprising that the work of propagandists, Russian television in some of your countries continues! This is not about freedom of speech. This is a concrete preparation of war against you, within your states.
And please look at our state – what it can lead to in yours! Russia’s tactics are very simple. It destroys everything – houses, shopping malls, schools, hospitals. More than 2,800 missiles since February 24, and the vast majority were aimed at civilian targets! What is it for? What are the bombs for? What are total artillery strikes for?
The Russian army is doing everything possible to force as many people as possible to leave their cities. So that there is nothing but ruins. And then the so-called “second army of the world” enters these cities – already empty and already dead. And it does not want to stop in Donbas or somewhere in the south of Ukraine, it wants to absorb city after city, all of us, and then all in Europe, whom the Russian leadership considers its property, not independent states. This is Russia’s real goal.
The question is – who is next for it? Moldova? Or the Baltic countries? Or Poland? The answer is – all of them.
The some goes, by the way, with the food crisis – with the blockade of Ukrainian ports, with the famine that Russia is provoking. What is the real target? You! The same! Hunger is a tool, a means. And its real goal is to put pressure on you, and it’s chaos, it’s new waves of migration to Europe.
Isn’t that the case with energy? Why is Russia pulling the gas noose? Why is it putting pressure on Europe? For you to ask. For you to be humiliated. For you to be completely dependent. So that you can be forced to give up your freedom, your democracy and your values – for the sake of certain interests of the Russian leadership.
We need to see the real goals of Russia. And if they were different, now there would be no desire of Finland and Sweden to join the Alliance – to get common security.
Ladies and Gentlemen!
While democracies were calling on the Russian leadership to have reason and morality, Russia was accumulating power and missiles. You, the democratic leaders, have urged it to respect international law, but tyrants understand force. And force only! And this is clearly seen in those areas of Ukraine where the Russian army has been severely rebuffed.
Ukraine commends the decision on the accession of Finland and Sweden to the Alliance. And it is very good that this has happened now – before Russia could start acting against these states as well. But is Russia doing anything against them now given this decision? No, and you see it.
The Russian leadership has publicly stated that the Leningrad streets taught them the rules of life. There, any attempts at dialogue and appeasement are perceived only as weakness and fear. There, you don’t make a phone call to anyone to talk when you have to hit back. There, you either hit or lose. This is exactly how the Russian state sees the world right now. And this vision cannot be ignored, its true goals cannot be ignored. You need to answer them. And I’m sure you all know how to respond.
In fact, our goals – the goals of Ukraine – are exactly the same as yours. We are interested in security and stability on the European continent and in the world. It is in our interest that the lives of nations are determined not by the infamous Munich speech of one leader, but by international law. We are interested in the absence of any “gray zones” and territories of total war, where there is nothing left but ruins. You are also interested in this.
Helping Ukraine end this war by winning on the battlefield now – that is, giving a really strong answer to what Russia is doing – is what we and each of your states and the whole Alliance, the whole Euro-Atlantic community need. If you really identify Russia as your threat, your main threat, you must fully support its main – the first – target. This is not a war of Russia only against Ukraine, this is a war for the right to dictate conditions in Europe. For what the future world order will be like. That is why it is absolutely necessary to support Ukraine right now with weapons, finances and political sanctions against Russia that will stop its ability to pay for the war.
Ukraine needs modern missile and air defense – and you have these systems. By providing them to us, you can completely break Russia’s tactics to destroy cities and terrorize the civilian population of Ukraine. This is a fundamental thing. The distance from Kyiv to Madrid is less than the range of the missiles used against us today. Can one state respond to such a threat without the help of partners? You can provide this help. And we are grateful for the help you have already given.
Russia relies primarily on artillery on the battlefield. On artillery superiority. Dozens of times more strikes than we currently can respond with. Ukraine has already received modern artillery systems – and I am very grateful to you. But the war continues and it is a war in which artillery is of great importance. The war should not drag on. To prevent this, we need to break the Russian artillery advantage – a significant advantage, we need much more such modern systems, modern artillery.
Financial support for Ukraine is no less important than aid with weapons. Russia still receives billions every day – and spends them on the war. We have a multibillion-dollar deficit – we do not have oil and gas, which could cover it. We need about $ 5 billion a month – you know that, and that’s a fundamental thing as well. This is exactly what is needed for defense and protection.
And we need a new understanding of NATO’s eastern flank. It is possible to get rid of the “gray zone” and guarantee security only together with Ukraine. Just think about one fact now: today, a non-NATO country, albeit with your support, has been holding back a state that you all officially identify as your main threat for more than four months. We are deterring Russia from destroying us and from destroying you.
Ladies and Gentlemen!
Russia must be isolated. It should not be in those international structures it wants to destroy. There should be no dialogues that don’t make sense until it starts looking for that dialogue itself. It must seek dialogue itself, itself, and therefore seek peace. And, for the sake of peace, the understanding of NATO’s eastern flank must be revised. Is it a coincidence that all Allies in the east, all our neighbors, stand for Ukraine’s membership in NATO? No, this is not a coincidence. This is logic. This is the understanding of life in our region.
NATO’s open door policy should not resemble the old Kyiv metro turnstiles: they are open, and when you approach, the turnstiles close until you pay. Hasn’t Ukraine paid enough yet? Is our contribution to the defense of Europe and the whole civilization still insufficient? What else is needed then?
I can say what we need: we need security guarantees, and you have to find a place for Ukraine in the common security space.
There will be either urgent help for Ukraine, which is enough to win, or Russia’s postponed war with you.
You are now adopting the strategy of the Alliance – and this is first and foremost a strategy for the security of your societies, your states. Strategy for ten years. 126 days of full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Cruise missiles, torture, children murdered, women raped… We do not have 10 years. Do you have them? Are you really sure about that?
Thanks again for the invitation.
Thank you very much for your attention.
Glory to Ukraine!
Before we move on to his nightly address, I want to take a moment to reflect a bit on President Zelenskyy’s address to the NATO summit. This is, as far as I remember, the most clear eyed, realistic as opposed to realpolitik, publicly statement by any national or international leader regarding Russia and its behavior. In fact this may be the best speech I’ve heard on foreign policy, national security policy, and geo-strategy I have heard a national leader give in my lifetime. In his address, President Zelenskyy has clearly delineated the problem, how Russia is politically and socially organized and the negative effects of that organization on the international system, clearly defined what it will take to meet the Russian threat, and then, for good measure, clearly made sure to emphasize to the NATO leaders in attendance that right now their active defense against Russia is being provided not by a NATO member, not by a superpower, not by a regional power, but by Ukraine!
Here’s his address to the Ukrainian people from earlier this evening:
And here’s the English transcript (emphasis mine):
Ukrainians!
Our defenders!
A week ago, our country received the status of a candidate for membership in the European Union, and today another step has been taken on the path to membership. A very practical step. “Transport visa-free regime” was signed. This is an agreement that removes barriers for Ukrainian carriers. You no longer have to wait for permits for freight transportation. And this will significantly increase the export of Ukrainian goods by road transport.
This is exactly the task of our state now – not to lose a single week in relations with the European Union. Despite this war, despite all the difficulties, we will constantly do what brings us closer to full membership in the European Union.
By the way, yesterday I held a special meeting – a big meeting including 28 participants representing the executive, legislative and judicial branches of government. The state will have a relevant document – a clear map of actions that can be checked by any citizen of Ukraine: what needs to be done by state institutions so that we fulfill our part of the job on the path to the European Union. This document will be presented on July 1.
I took part in the NATO summit this morning. This is a special summit. A summit of transformation. The Alliance is changing its strategy in response to Russia’s aggressive anti-European policies and Russia’s war against our country. It is obvious that it is impossible to guarantee security in Europe in such conditions without our state. And we will do everything to transform this obvious nature into concrete decisions – for Ukraine, for the Alliance. We need clear security guarantees – we will have them, and today I called on NATO members to find a format of decisions that would allow for Ukraine’s full participation in our common European security architecture. I called on NATO countries to speed up the supply of missile defense systems to Ukraine and significantly increase the pressure on the terrorist state.
Today’s Russian strike alone at the city of Mykolaiv – 10 missiles at once, and all of them were aimed at civilian targets – proves for absolutely everyone in the world that the pressure on Russia is not enough. One of these missiles, a hypersonic anti-ship missile “Onyx”, destroyed an ordinary five-story building. Dismantling of the debris continued over the day. As of now, five people are known to have been killed. There were also strikes at Ochakiv, Dnipro, the Russian shelling of the Kharkiv region, Sumy region, Donbas. Lysychansk, Avdiivka, communities in the Bakhmut direction – the situation there remains extremely brutal, very difficult. We are doing everything we can to provide our military with modern artillery systems to respond properly to the occupiers.
Russia squeezed out the message of Syria about the alleged recognition of the occupation structures in Donbas as alleged states. This is an empty story. And in that case, there will be no more relations between Ukraine and Syria, and the pressure of sanctions against Syria will be even greater.
For the first time in all the years of independence, the President of Indonesia, a very influential state that may suffer significantly from the food crisis provoked by Russia, paid a visit to Kyiv today. Therefore, these were important negotiations that opened for Ukraine another strategic direction of relations with Asia.
One of the most famous businessmen in the world, Richard Branson, also visited Ukraine. He is more than just an entrepreneur. He is a visionary, a man who works for progress and the best technology for all mankind. His arrival in Ukraine right now – and he visited Hostomel, where he discussed, in particular, the possibility of rebuilding the airport and building our “Mriya”, the world’s largest aircraft – is a very strong signal to everyone in the world that Ukraine will definitely withstand this war. And I am grateful to Mr. Branson for his willingness to join the post-war reconstruction of our country.
And another optimistic and very important news: 144 Ukrainian warriors were returned home from Russian captivity. 59 soldiers of the National Guard, 30 – Navy; 28 – army, 17 border guards, 9 territorial defense soldiers, 1 policeman. The oldest of the liberated is 65 years old, the youngest is 19. In particular, 95 Azovstal defenders return home. I am grateful to the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine and to everyone who worked for this result. But let’s talk about this later. We will do everything to bring every Ukrainian man and woman home. Thank you again.
Glory to Ukraine!
Here are the details on the returned prisoners of war:
Ukraine announces biggest POW swap since Feb. 24: 144 Ukrainian troops for 144 Russian forces. Group includes 95 Azovstal defenders, 43 of which are Azov Regiment.
Full breakdown:
59 Nat'l Guard
30 Marines
28 Army
17 Border Guards
9 Territorial defense
1 Nat'l Police officer https://t.co/fd1Aw3G0Mm— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) June 29, 2022
And here’s more on the attack on Mykolaiv:
Russian missile hit the residential building in Mykolayiv. It happened today’s morning when the whole families were sleeping in their beds. #ArmUkraineNow pic.twitter.com/s86P7TwcFP
— Oleksandra Matviichuk (@avalaina) June 29, 2022
Here’s today’s operational update from Ukraine’s MOD: (emphasis mine)
The operational update regarding the russian invasion on 18.00 on June 29, 2022
The one hundred twenty sixth (126) day of the heroic resistance of the Ukrainian people to a russian military invasion continues.
A large-scale exchange of prisoners took place, thanks to which 144 Ukrainian defenders returned home. Among them are 95 Azovstal defenders.
In the Volyn and Polissya areas, as part of the exercises, the military commissariats of the republic of belarus are inspecting the assigned composition and the possibility of mobilization in certain regions.
In the Siversky direction, the enemy continues to provide enhanced protection of the Ukrainian-russian border. In addition, the aggressor fired on civilian and military infrastructure in the areas of the settlements of Turya and Luhivka in the Sumy region. Inflicted an air strike on the settlement of Uhroidy.
In the Kharkiv direction, the enemy fired from tanks, mortars, barrel artillery and jet artillery at the settlements of Kharkiv, Bazaliyivka, Pryshyb, Shestakove, Ruska Lozova, Verkhniy Saltiv, Ivanivka, and Zamulivka.
In the Slovyansk direction, the enemy regroups troops and holds previously occupied frontiers. Shelling was recorded in the areas of Dolyna, Bohorodychne, Mykilske, Hrushuvakha and Dovhenke settlements. The occupiers also launched an air strike near Husarivka.
In the Donetsk direction, the enemy, with the support of artillery, tries to block the city of Lysychansk and take control of the section of the highway Lysychansk – Bakhmut. It fired on civilian and military infrastructure in the areas of the settlements of Lysychansk, Verkhnokamyanka, Siversk, and in an air strike on the area of the Lysychansk Oil Refinery. It supported sabotage and reconnaissance groups in the area of Verkhnyokamyanka to support the offensive. Ukrainian soldiers found and neutralized them. The remnants of the occupiers’ DRG left.
In the Kramatorsk direction, the enemy did not conduct active hostilities, firing artillery at the Tetyanivka area.
In the Bakhmut direction, the enemy fired at the positions of our troops with artillery of various calibers near Klinove, Rozdolivka, Vyimka and Ivano-Daryivka. It struck an air strike near the village of Vidrodzenna. It tried to improve the tactical situation in the area of the settlement of Spirne by offensive actions, was unsuccessful, and withdrew. Our soldiers neutralized the enemy’s sabotage and reconnaissance group near Berestove.
In the Avdiivka, Kurakhiv, Novopavliv and Zaporizhzhia directions, the enemy fired mortars, barrel and jet artillery at our positions in the areas of the settlements of Avdiivka, Vesele, Pavlivka, Bilohirya, Inzhenerne, Olhivske, Preobrazhenka, and Huliaipilske. In addition, the russian occupiers launched airstrikes on civilian infrastructure near Orikhove and Scherbaky.
In the South Buh direction, the enemy carried out systematic shelling of civilian and military infrastructure with barrel artillery and jet artillery, and regrouped troops.
In the temporarily occupied territory of Ukraine, the occupying power continues to carry out measures of the administrative-police regime. The collection of personal information of local residents, compulsory certification and ban on the population to enter the territory controlled by the Ukrainian authorities are underway.
Some units of the Armed Forces of the russian federation, which were withdrawn from the territory of Ukraine to regain combat capability, are not able to replenish their units in time due to the reluctance of personnel to take part in the war against Ukraine. Personnel who refused to take part in the war are released, there are attempts to prosecute such persons.
Our units continue to perform missile and artillery fire tasks in certain areas and beat the occupiers in close combat.
We believe in the Armed Forces of Ukraine! Together to victory!
Glory to Ukraine!
Here’s today’s assessment from Britain’s MOD:
And here’s their updated map for today:
Here’s former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Commander Chuck Pfarrer’s most recent analysis and updated map of the battle in the Donbas:
SIEVERODONETSK AXIS / 0100 UTC 30 JUN / Note: New Map Projection. UKR forces are likely to fall back under pressure from Lysychansk. It is assessed that RU will continue advancing north on the P-66 HWY axis, further constricting UKR’s holdings. pic.twitter.com/pBRD17hVMx
— Chuck Pfarrer (@ChuckPfarrer) June 30, 2022
As was mentioned, NATO debuted their new and updated strategy concept today.
The Strategic Concept is a key document for the Alliance. It reaffirms NATO’s values and purpose, and provides a collective assessment of the security environment. It also drives NATO’s strategic adaptation and guides its future political and military development.
The Strategic Concept is reviewed and updated regularly. Since the end of the Cold War, it has been updated approximately every 10 years to take account of changes to the global security environment and to make sure the Alliance is prepared for the future.
The world has fundamentally changed in the past decade and strategic competition is rising, so the time has come to update the Strategic Concept. The last Strategic Concept was adopted at the Lisbon Summit in 2010; the new one will build on elements of the 2010 Concept that are still relevant.
The US has also announced a new expeditionary force posture for eastern Europe.
At the summit, Biden said he will increase from four to six the number of U.S. destroyers based at Rota Naval Base, Spain. “In Poland, we’re going to establish a permanent headquarters of the U.S. 5th Army Corps and strengthen NATO interoperability across the entire eastern flank,” he said.
The Army’s V Corps headquarters will be a forward command post, an Army garrison headquarters, and a field support battalion, said DOD officials traveling with Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III, who is also attending the summit. The forces will improve command and control capabilities, interoperability with NATO, and management of prepositioned equipment.
Poland has been a steadfast ally and enabler of many of the alliance’s moves, officials said. The United States will also maintain the substantial rotational force presence in Poland, including an armored brigade combat team, a combat aviation brigade element, and a division headquarters element. This enables DOD to deploy combat forces up and down the eastern flank, officials said.
In Romania, the United States will position a rotational brigade combat team. This additional brigade will also maintain the ability to deploy subordinate elements. The U.S. will also enhance its rotational deployments in the Baltic republics. These include armored, aviation, air defense and special operations forces.
The U.S. military will also maintain a persistent, heel-to-toe presence in the region and will intensify training with Baltic allies to maintain combat-credible capabilities, officials said.
Biden also announced deployment of two additional F-35 squadrons to RAF Lakenheath in the United Kingdom. These fifth-generation fighters will add to the air support for NATO forces throughout Europe.
The president said he will also deploy additional air defense, logistics and engineer assets in Germany and add air defense capabilities to forces in Italy.
Much more at the link!
Your daily Patron!
He recorded his own address to the NATO summit!
@patron__dsns Кормом не корміть, дайте гау-гаубицю! #песпатрон #патрондснс #славаукраїні
The video’s caption states:
Do not feed with food, give me a howitzer! #pespatron #patrondsns #slavaukraini
Open thread!
War For Ukraine Day 125: NATO Is Set To Expand. The Price Will Be Paid By the Kurds
by Adam L Silverman| 57 Comments
This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine
Here’s President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier this evening. Video below, English transcript after the jump: (emphasis mine)
Ukrainians!
All our defenders!
I have just taken part in a special meeting of the UN Security Council convened at the request of Ukraine. Convened by Albania – this state presides in the Security Council. We have taken advantage of all international levers to bring Russia to justice for state terrorism. For everything done by the Russian army against Ukrainians in Kremenchuk, in Ochakiv, in Lysychansk, in Kharkiv, in Dnipro, in many, many other cities of Ukraine. As of this evening, the total number of Russian missiles that have hit our cities is already 2,811. And there are many more air bombs, many artillery shells…
The UN Security Council today stood in silence to commemorate all Ukrainians killed by the Russian army on our land. The members of the Russian delegation looked at everyone present in the Security Council and also decided to stand up – just so as not to look like outright murderers. But everyone knows that it is Russian terror, it is the Russian state that is killing innocent people in this war waged against the Ukrainian people.
I called on the UN to use the existing mechanisms of the Charter to stop Russian manipulation of the Organization’s structures and to set up a special tribunal to investigate the actions of the Russian occupiers on Ukrainian soil.
Ukraine’s law enforcement and intelligence agencies are doing their best to identify all Russian servicemen responsible for the terror against our cities. The names, faces and all information about each of these terrorists will be known to the world. None of them will be able to avoid responsibility, and personal sanctions will not be enough for these people. A sentence and imprisonment are the minimum they deserve.
And I wish to say separately about the responsibility of those Russian propagandists who lie about this terror, who are trying to justify the actions of the Russian army. Each of you will also be punished. We have all the evidence of what the Russian troops are doing against our people.
Today, I want to end this address with one such piece of evidence – so that no one dares to deceive about the missile strike at the shopping mall in Kremenchuk. The Russian missile hit this very object, purposefully. Obviously, that was the order. It is obvious that Russian assassins received such coordinates for this missile. They wanted to kill as many people as possible in a peaceful city, in a regular shopping mall. Here is what happened in Kremenchuk:
(Video)
And for this act of state terrorism, as for all others, Russia will be responsible. On the battlefield in Ukraine, by the strengthening of sanctions and, of course, in the tribunal.
I am grateful to everyone who defends Ukraine. Today I signed a new decree on awarding our heroes. 314 more combatants were awarded state awards.
Eternal glory to our defenders!
Glory to Ukraine!
As of now there is no operational update from Ukraine’s MOD posted.
There was also no DOD background briefing today.
Here’s the British MOD’s assessment for today:
And here’s their updated map for today:
As you can see there’s still not a lot of movement at the macro level. In the comments last night YY_Sima Qian asked if we could do some map comparisons over the last couple of weeks. This is a great idea. So you’ve got today’s map above and below we’ve got from – top to bottom – yesterday’s, 22 June, 19 June, 12 June, 8 June, 1 June, and 31 May.
I hope that seeing them one above the next helps you all visualize just how stable the lines are at the macro level over the past month. Where you actually see movement, which is Ukraine attritting the Russians and pushing them back, is in the south around/near/in Kherson, which isn’t getting a lot of coverage because all the reporters up near Sievierodonetsk.
We have some additional footage from the strike on the shopping mall yesterday. Here is specifically the clip that President Zelenskyy highlighted in his address:
⚡️Zelensky shows video of deadly missile strike on Kremenchuk shopping mall.
In his nightly address, President Volodymyr Zelensky showed a video of a Russian missile strike on a crowded shopping mall in Ukraine's central city of Kremenchuk. pic.twitter.com/rJik8HpsJz
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) June 28, 2022
And here’s multiple different video streams of the effects of the strike from a park adjacent to the Amstor mall in Kremenchuck. As far as I can tell no one in the video is injured. You can, however, actually see the blast wave in several of the clips.
The moment of the explosion after the missile attack on the Amstor mall in Kremenchuk. pic.twitter.com/jwRavuyqtX
— ТРУХА⚡️English (@TpyxaNews) June 28, 2022
And Norway has stepped up with an important addition to Ukraine’s arsenal:
THANK NORWAY: The US will transfer to Ukraine the Norwegian Advanced Surface to Air Missile System (NASAMS). This networked SAM complex 'ground launches’ state of the art AMRAAM air-to-air missiles– the same ones used by F-22, F-35, F-15 and F-18 fighters. pic.twitter.com/PTPz7Wrpnz
— Chuck Pfarrer (@ChuckPfarrer) June 28, 2022
Apparently Finland and Sweden came to terms with Turkey, which has resulted in Turkey lifting its threat to block their ascension into NATO. The price, as is always the case when dealing with Erdogan, will be paid by the Kurds.
Here are the things Turkey got:
• Sweden/Finland will lift its arms embargo
• Both will support Turkey on PKK, stop support to YPG
• They will amend their laws on terrorism
• They will share Intel with each other
• They will extradite terror suspects 1/— Ragıp Soylu (@ragipsoylu) June 28, 2022
HERE IS THE JOINT DECLARATION
• Sweden and Finland confirm that there are no arms embargoes against Turkey. pic.twitter.com/gMa0LgQHJO
— Ragıp Soylu (@ragipsoylu) June 28, 2022
All of this was to help Erdogan shore up his standing ahead of his facing reelection.
Your daily Patron!
Ukraine’s most famous de-mining dog, Patron, starting his next mission. pic.twitter.com/h54hmnOEWf
— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) June 26, 2022
And here’s Chapa!
play with the babies and enjoy Parmesan.
She performed her first preventive combat mission before the International Children's Day, where she was responsible for playing with displaced children theirs anti-stress and good mood.— TwoHappyDachshunds (@TwoHappyDachs) June 28, 2022
And here’s a video from Patron’s official TikTok page!
@patron__dsns @ptushkevich 🥰 #песпатрон #патрон #славаукраїні
Open thread!
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