The House has passed another short term stepped CR to get through to 8 and 22 MAR 2024, when the appropriators are supposed to have completed their bills in both chambers and have them ready for votes. Now we see which member, if any, of the GOP minority caucus in the Senate decides to hold …
A world in which terror wins would please no one, which is exactly why Putin must lose – address by the President of Ukraine.
29 February 2024 – 19:09
I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!
First. A few summaries of the visits. The key thing is new defense agreements, new packages. There will be more artillery and more joint production with our partners. We use every meeting and every day to provide more capabilities to our warriors. I am grateful to all our partners who help us in the way we need. And in a timely manner, without delays.
We had good talks in Albania – as always, principled support. And not only in terms of our bilateral relations, but also in terms of how to make the dialogue with those states that are still reserved in their support more meaningful. Mr. Prime Minister Rama, thank you once again.
This was already the second Ukraine – South East Europe Summit. We had good meetings with representatives of Croatia, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Moldova, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Serbia. I shouldn’t disclose all the details now, but I can say that we managed to achieve exactly what we expected. In addition, all the participants of the summit, all the countries of Southeastern Europe, will take part in the Global Peace Summit – the first summit on the Peace Formula at the level of leaders. It is planned to be held in Switzerland. And we already see opportunities for broad representation of countries from around the world.
It was about a just peace, about the first summit of leaders on the Peace Formula, about the opportunities in the world today to decrease chaos and destruction that the Crown Prince and I talked about in Saudi Arabia. It was a very profound, positive conversation. I am grateful for the attention to Ukraine and for the advice. We need to ensure the widest possible participation of the global community in addressing global issues. The restoration of the full force of international law and the prevention of aggression is exactly that kind of issue. We also talked about joint economic and technological projects with Saudi Arabia. We appreciate such cooperation. And it is important that our teams implement project agreements as quickly as possible. Both of our countries will benefit from this.
Today, I also held a meeting on the European direction – our relations with the European Union, the tasks for this year, integration in general, and specifically on relations with our neighbors in the European Union. Our priority is clear: all existing agreements must be implemented, and every word that is spoken must be put into practice. This is exactly the approach Ukraine is taking on the European direction. And it is thanks to this that we have already achieved historic results.
This year should be a time of real negotiations on accession. We can start as early as spring and take the first negotiating steps. This year should also be a time of maximum pragmatism in relations with our neighbors. Everyone sees that Russia is not going to stop. They in Moscow want an arms race and new waves of destabilization. All of us in Europe need to realize this clearly. If the freedom of one falls, the freedom of all the others will not withstand either. This is the reality. We have to defend ourselves. And we can defend ourselves. We must achieve our common goals.
I thank everyone who helps!
I thank everyone who is at combat posts, on combat missions, in battle right now. Krasnohorivka, Novomykhailivka, Kupyansk, Bakhmut sector, Avdiivka sector, and the Southern sectors. It is worth remembering that global stability rests solely on the courage and dedication of Ukrainian warriors and our entire nation. It is Ukrainian names that are mentioned in the frontline reports, but everyone understands and sees that Putin’s intentions are much broader. A world in which terror wins would please no one, which is exactly why Putin must lose. Our people in Ukraine are capable of ensuring this – with sufficient support. Support with what the world already has in its weapons depots, in the norms of international law, and in the minds of its leaders.
Glory and gratitude to all our heroes! May the memory of each of our warriors – every Ukrainian man and woman who gave their lives for the sake of Ukraine – be bright and eternal.
Glory to Ukraine!
The last 12 hours of the calendar winter… and not a single blackout due to Russian missile attacks this time around in Kyiv and the entire Ukraine.
We've made it through the second winter of war.
A small yet inspiring victory for us all!— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) February 29, 2024
With few small exceptions, Kyiv avoided city-wide loss of power, gas, water this winter & was largely successful in defending its sky from Russian air attacks. As Ambo Brink says below, it’s large part due to US aid — when it comes. Then Ukrainians who know how to put it to use. https://t.co/2X86KrnpzZ
— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) February 29, 2024
As winter slowly gives way to spring, the question is will US aid come.
While the US aid is in limbo, please help Ukraine withstand the ongoing invasion by donating to this charity:https://t.co/JAF2n4bqBZ
— Maksym Filipenko 🏳️🌈 (@MaksymDraws) February 29, 2024
Rep. Houlahan: Last evening when I left votes, it was dark and raining, and I was intercepted by people with Ukrainian flags, and one had a sign that said “It’s 1939 again.” And it really struck me, because it really is. https://t.co/aA67x878Il
— Ostap Yarysh (@OstapYarysh) February 29, 2024
.@secdef: "Without our support, the Ukrainians will be outgunned in terms of artillery, and they'll also be at risk because of lack of adaquate air defense."
— Nick Schifrin (@nickschifrin) February 29, 2024
Germany:
If Scholz doesn’t trust Ukrainians not to hit Moscow, why not allow UK or France to exercise same oversight over Taurus use that Scholz alleges they are exercising over Storm Shadow / SCALP at present? After all, neither country wants their missiles hitting Moscow either. https://t.co/XYCknmplgI
— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) February 29, 2024
Chancellor Olaf Scholz has just clarified his reasons for denying a delivery of Taurus KEPD-350 to #Ukraine. He speaks of the possibility of hitting specific targets in Moscow if the weapon is mishandled, and therefore Germany would need to “participate”, without going into details.
He also repeats his statement that others (France and/or Great Britain) have made sure that they know exactly where and how their weapons (SCALP-EG and Storm Shadow) are being used. This time, however, he does not mention any soldiers on Ukrainian soil.
Germany, politically and constitutionally, is in a different position to Britain and France when it comes to risk tolerance and oversight of missile use, and Scholz’s predicament is therefore somewhat different. But ways can be found around that. https://t.co/23uiUYVRsp
— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) February 29, 2024
France:
'other countries, including Italy, Poland and Finland, want more flexibility, arguing that Ukraine’s ammunition needs are critical and EU producers can’t meet them.' https://t.co/i2wAsTncy5
— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) February 29, 2024
'Separately, Germany argues the (substantial) value of its bilateral military donations should cancel out its share of the €5bn top-up. Given Germany contributes about a quarter of the EPF’s funding, other member states oppose this offset demand…' https://t.co/i2wAsTncy5
— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) February 29, 2024
More from The Financial Times:
France and Germany’s public spat over military support to Ukraine is exacerbating arguments delaying an agreement to pump €5bn into the EU’s fund for weapon shipments, as they bicker over separate demands regarding its rules.
Context: The European Peace Facility (EPF), funded by the bloc’s 27 members outside of the EU budget, partly reimburses capitals for weapons provided to Kyiv. It is overdrawn and needs replenishing.
At a meeting of EU ambassadors yesterday, France continued to demand the EPF only reimburse weapons manufactured in the EU or Norway, arguing that EU money spent to help Ukraine should simultaneously develop the bloc’s defence industry, not third countries’.
But other countries, including Italy, Poland and Finland, want more flexibility, arguing that Ukraine’s ammunition needs are critical and EU producers can’t meet them.
France’s objection comes despite President Emmanuel Macron vowing to support a separate Czech-led initiative to buy artillery shells from outside the EU.
“We will mobilise bilateral financing as well as multilateral,” Macron said. But while he supports (bilaterally) using French cash to buy non-EU materiel, he is blocking others using EU cash to (multilaterally) do the same.
French officials counter that the Czech idea is a short-term fix, and the EPF should remain strategic.
“Certainly, let’s prioritise ‘buy European’,” said one EU diplomat involved in the negotiations. “But let’s not cut off our nose to spite our face.”
Separately, Germany argues the (substantial) value of its bilateral military donations should cancel out its share of the €5bn top-up.
Given Germany contributes about a quarter of the EPF’s funding, other member states oppose this offset demand because it would significantly reduce its liquidity.
The wider context here is the acrimonious war of words between Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. Macron’s Monday remark that he “could not rule out” western troops deploying in Ukraine was immediately rebuffed by Berlin, who shot back that Paris should instead send more weapons.
Berlin is the EU’s biggest military supporter of Ukraine by a vast margin. It has vowed to send €7.1bn in 2024, and is increasingly irritated by Paris’ far smaller pledges.
“Macron’s ‘troops’ stunt was about portraying him as a staunch defender of Kyiv and distracting from the money,” said another frustrated EU diplomat. “It has infuriated the Germans.”
Officials caught in the crossfire remain confident of an agreement before the March 21 EU leaders’ summit. But most reckon that while the German issue should be resolvable with creative accounting — a Brussels speciality — France’s ideological stance may only be solved by someone backing down.
These two schmucks in Paris and Berlin are going to ensure that Czech President Pavel is never going to be able to secure the funding from his EU partners to purchase the 155mm rounds he has found in order to send them to Ukraine.
If Ukraine loses this war, it will not be lost in the Donbas or on the Dnipro, it will be lost in Washington DC, Paris, and Berlin!
This Russian abetted crap on the Polish side of the Ukrainian border isn’t helping either:
Yesterday, there was a backlash from the Polish community for me saying that Polish actions on the border are equaling cooperation with Russia. While many Poles got very angry, the voices of many Ukrainians remained unheard in Poland for a long time. When a group of small,…
— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) February 29, 2024
Yesterday, there was a backlash from the Polish community for me saying that Polish actions on the border are equaling cooperation with Russia. While many Poles got very angry, the voices of many Ukrainians remained unheard in Poland for a long time. When a group of small, pro-Kremlin stooges mixed with justly concerned farmers engaged in illegal actions, vandalizing grain in a country with wheat and a blue sky on its banner, which went through Holodomor, and where throwing away bread is a cultural taboo, it was an act of sacrilege. They were not only blocking grain but also blocking a lot of unrelated goods from private funds and volunteers – like drone parts, vehicles, tourniquets, and many other goods for the frontline.
Before moving forward, I want to note that Ukrainians are extremely thankful and won’t forget the help provided by Poland, as well as the personal acts of Polish volunteers and regular people who aided millions of Ukrainian refugees, far outweighing the harm done by an unrepresentative group of people. I am grateful to the Polish people for the support provided. That being said, gratitude doesn’t grant immunity from criticism, nor does it cancel the fact that Poland, as a state (excluding countless individual acts of kindness), pursues its strategic interests and deals with an existential threat from the East that openly doubts Polish statehood. You know, as I know, that if Ukraine falls and gets occupied, you will have another border with Russia – a nightmare scenario for all of us.
As an individual (I am not an elected official or representative), I think the concerns of Polish farmers are legitimate. I understand this is a real problem for some individuals facing imminent income loss compared to the theoretical occupation of Ukraine in a few years. But I fail to see how the destruction of grain from the sealed train headed to Morocco, playing air raid sirens to buses with women and children fleeing the war, or the blockade of non-agricultural goods helps the situation. The biggest problem is that my words comparing such actions to Russian actions have sparked a much larger argument and smear campaign than the actions of these people, whom even Polish people are calling Kremlin puppets!
You rightfully say that my words hurt you, but the actions of these people hurt Ukrainians for months, and many of you remained silent and ignored that millions of Ukrainians felt betrayed – a backstab from a friend is always the most painful.
I don’t hold a grudge against Polish people, but just as you love your country, I love mine, and if bringing attention to the problem required me to say unpleasant things, so be it. I won’t apologize for my words, nor do I expect an apology from those who insulted me and felt that my words were unjust
It’s up to you to decide whether the discord should continue, but the problem needs mutual addressing. I will refrain from comparing Polish actions with Russian actions in the future, as this is unjust and not helpful, but in return, I ask you to spend just as much energy on Russian stooges in your country, as you spent on me.
The Avdiivka front:
Close range combat between a Ukrainian tank and a Russian BMP. Avdiivka front. pic.twitter.com/G6Tm5Y0eHQ
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) February 29, 2024
Putin gave his state of nation address today. It was long, stultifying, and bellicose all at the same time.
“We also have weapons that can strike targets on their territory,” Putin added. He said western supplies of advanced weaponry and the prospect of a Nato troop deployment risked nuclear conflict. @maxseddon
https://t.co/A6x6hEwiUo— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) February 29, 2024
In case you are wondering when human civilization is going to be wiped out, Putin moved on from that about half an hour ago and has mostly been rattling on about modest payments to mothers
— max seddon (@maxseddon) February 29, 2024
The Financial Times has details:
Vladimir Putin has said that western support for Ukraine risks triggering a global war, in his most explicit threat to use nuclear weapons since he ordered the full-scale invasion of Ukraine two years ago.
In his state of the nation speech on Thursday, the Russian president told the country’s political elite that claims his country intended to attack Europe were “nonsense”.
But he said any increase in western support for Ukraine “really risks a conflict using nuclear weapons, which means the destruction of all of civilisation”.
Referring to French President Emmanuel Macron’s refusal to rule out sending western troops to Ukraine this week, Putin said Russia remembered “the fate of those who once sent their contingents to our country.
“Now the consequences for possible interveners will be much more tragic,” he added. “We also have weapons that can strike targets on their territory.”
Putin said that western supplies of advanced weaponry and the prospect of a Nato troop deployment risked provoking nuclear conflict. “They think this is some kind of game. They are blinded by their own superiority complex,” he said.
The EU on Thursday said Putin’s threat with nuclear weapons was “absolutely unacceptable and inappropriate” as he was the one who started the war in Ukraine and “advancing instability in the wider region”.
Ahead of the Russian president’s expected re-election, “he is deceiving the nation” and reviving “repression that resembles Stalinist times”, said the European Commission.
The Kremlin had billed Putin’s speech as a road map for the next six years of his rule ahead of Russia’s presidential elections next month. After 24 years in power, he faces no credible challengers, having quashed most opposition and outlawed dissent.
Pro-Kremlin cinema owners across the country held free screenings of the speech, which began at midday in Moscow and revealed how far the war in Ukraine and the strategic rivalry with the west has consumed Putin’s attention.
“They need some dependent, declining, dying space where they can do whatever they want,” Putin said of the west. “They want to do to Russia what they have done in many regions of the world, including Ukraine — to bring discord into our house and weaken us from the inside.”
Putin confirmed Russia would beef up troop deployments on its border with Nato countries to “neutralise threats” created by Sweden and Finland joining the alliance following his invasion of Ukraine.
Although Putin said Russia was prepared to hold arms control talks with the US, which have in effect collapsed since the full-scale invasion, he made it clear Russia was also interested in increasing its ability to strike western countries.
He boasted that the country’s nuclear forces were ready for use, and added that work would soon conclude on new weapons systems, which he has claimed are essentially impossible to shoot down.
“We are dealing with a state whose ruling circles are taking openly hostile actions against us,” said Putin. “They are planning in all seriousness to discuss strategic stability with us while simultaneously, as they say themselves, trying to inflict a strategic defeat on us on the battlefield.”
Denying US claims that Russia plans to deploy a nuclear weapon in space, Putin accused the west of trying to “drag us into an arms race, repeating the trick they played with the Soviet Union in the 1980s” when the USSR overspent on its military, hastening its collapse in 1991.
He said Russia would work to “create the outlines for equal and inseparable security in Eurasia”, adding that “without a sovereign, strong Russia, no stable world order is possible”.
William Alberque, a director at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said Putin’s attempts at nuclear coercion were designed to scare the west into limiting its support for Kyiv at a crucial point in the war.
“He hopes by escalating threats, he can instil restraint or hesitation in western leaders making decisions on how to support Ukraine,” said Alberque.
But Russian analysts said the frequency with which Putin has resorted to nuclear threats risked making them less effective.
Andrei Kolesnikov, a Moscow-based senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said that despite Putin’s rhetoric, the Kremlin was wary of nuclear conflict.
“They do not want and are afraid of nuclear war,” he said, adding that “nuclear blackmail” had become pro forma for Putin.
More at the link.
Three reasons why Putin may bring this up now so clearly:
– Pushing back against Macron's assertive language
– Targeting Scholz who continues to display fear at every opportunity
– Playing into Trump's hands=> dividing and weakening the West, diminishing support for Ukraine https://t.co/XUL1kZWdc0
— Ulrich Speck (@ulrichspeck) February 29, 2024
As I’ve written repeatedly, Russia’s nuclear weapons use doctrine is misinformation and agitprop intended to, per their doctrine for setting the theater of operations, achieve dominance via shaping the information domain prior to ever beginning operations in the actual world. It always has been and always be smoke and mirrors.
Speaking of Russian nuclear weapons strategy and policy, you may have seen reporting or social media posts that a bunch of leaked documents raised worrying new concerns about what Putin might be planning. Turns out it is not something that should trouble the sleep of the residents of Lawrence, KS.
I'm highly skeptical about any leaked Russian files regarding nuclear targeting. I had the opportunity around 15 years ago to work on this issue when nobody except a couple of "greybeards" were left working the "Russia Desk". I really was curious and had access (1/?)
— David Teter (@dtc94133) February 28, 2024
It was my experience both as an advisor on SIOP/OPLAN 8044/8010, that the information that I had access to was *insanely* protected and that the Russian General Staff takes nuclear targeting and war plans to a level of compartmentalization that I'd not seen before (3/?)
— David Teter (@dtc94133) February 28, 2024
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
Sometimes I pretend I'm just a dog 😅 pic.twitter.com/Rjh5qqV0ki
— Patron (@PatronDsns) February 29, 2024
Open thread!