Another brief post tonight as I’m still playing catch up. Ukraine’s MOD provided a master class in strategic communication in a single tweet: Unless they want an unpleasantly hot summer break, we advise our valued russian guests not to visit Ukrainian Crimea. Because no amount of sunscreen will protect them from the hazardous effects of …
Adam L Silverman
War For Ukraine Day 168: Your Daily Patron
by Adam L Silverman| 60 Comments
This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War in Ukraine
I’m pooped, so basically you’re just getting Patron tonight. With the exception of this one point from last night regarding the Ukrainian strike on Russia’s air force base in occupied Crimea. The Kyiv Post has reported that it seems that the weapon system that was used to target the Russian air force base is most …
War For Ukraine Day 168: Your Daily PatronPost + Comments (60)
War For Ukraine Day 167: Crimea Goes Boom!
by Adam L Silverman| 64 Comments
This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine
Tonight we’re going to focus on Crimea. Earlier today a Russian ammo depot blew up in Crimea. Video clearly showing two large explosions happening exactly simultaneously at two different locations. They happened simultaneously to the second. Afterwards a third large explosion is seen. pic.twitter.com/OC0OIyaWUD — Oliver Alexander (@OAlexanderDK) August 9, 2022 This video shows that …
War For Ukraine Day 167: Crimea Goes Boom!Post + Comments (64)
Good health to you, fellow Ukrainians!
Today, there is a lot of attention to the topic of Crimea. And rightly so. Because Crimea is Ukrainian, and we will never give it up.
We will not forget that the Russian war against Ukraine began with the occupation of Crimea.
Russia has turned our peninsula, which has always been and will be one of the best places in Europe, into one of the most dangerous places in Europe. Russia brought large-scale repression, environmental problems, economic hopelessness and war to Crimea. War.
Perhaps historians will one day determine how many people were killed as a result of Russia’s use of Crimea for terror. Tens of thousands? Hundreds of thousands? From Ukraine and Georgia to Syria and more remote regions.
The presence of Russian occupiers in Crimea is a threat to the entire Europe and to global stability. The Black Sea region cannot be safe as long as Crimea is occupied. There will be no stable and lasting peace in many countries on the shores of the Mediterranean Sea as long as Russia is able to use our peninsula as its military base.
This Russian war against Ukraine and against the entire free Europe began with Crimea and must end with Crimea – with its liberation. Today it is impossible to say when this will happen. But we are constantly adding the necessary components to the formula of liberation of Crimea.
We launched the Crimea Platform – a key diplomatic platform for the work on the liberation of Crimea. The Crimea Platform will work this year as well. We are already preparing for this summit.
The Crimean topic sounds on all international platforms where the Russian war against our state is discussed. The history of the global response to Russia’s seizure of Crimea, or rather the lack of such a response, is now one of the best arguments for strengthening sanctions against Russia. The world is beginning to recognize that it made a mistake in 2014 when it decided not to respond with full force to Russia’s first aggressive steps.
And, of course, we pay due attention to the struggle for rights and historical justice for the indigenous peoples of Ukraine – the Crimean Tatar people, Karaites and Krymchaks. Today, on the International Day of the World’s Indigenous Peoples, we really have something to say.
Last summer, the fundamental law on indigenous peoples of Ukraine was adopted. This law recognizes the rights of indigenous peoples and representative bodies of indigenous peoples.
Ukraine is a multinational state. Various national communities have been living on our land for centuries. But most of them have experience of state formation outside of Ukraine. Our state is native to peoples whose national cultures and aspirations were formed in Crimea. Therefore, when we are working for the liberation of the peninsula, we are fighting for the restoration of the territorial integrity of our state and for the return of home to the indigenous peoples of Ukraine. I believe that it will be so. I know that we will return to the Ukrainian Crimea. And I am grateful to all our partners and international organizations that help us in this.
It is too early to disclose all the details, but this year the work of the Crimea Platform will be no less important and representative than last year, when its first summit was held in Kyiv. The format will be different, but the value will be even greater.
We are preparing new solutions for the protection and assistance in the realization of the rights of the indigenous peoples of Ukraine. We are also preparing programs for the economic recovery of our Crimea after its liberation from the occupiers.
Well, the main thing is to support the Armed Forces of Ukraine, our intelligence and everyone who is fighting to liberate our land and repel the Russian colonial invasion.
From the Kharkiv region to Kherson, from Donetsk to Enerhodar, from Stanytsia Luhanska to Yalta, from Berdyansk to Novofedorivka – these are all parts of our country, this is Ukraine, which will be completely free.
Today I signed a new decree on awarding our defenders. 182 combatants were awarded state awards. The total number of awarded Ukrainian warriors has already exceeded 26,000 since February 24.
I thank everyone who defends Ukraine!
Eternal glory to all who fight for freedom!
Glory to Ukraine!
The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense has its tongue firmly planted in its cheek:
The Ministry of Defense of Ukraine would like to remind everyone that the presence of occupying troops on the territory of Ukrainian Crimea is not compatible with the high tourist season. pic.twitter.com/PFl6jBzKh4
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) August 9, 2022
Meanwhile, Ukraine’s Defense Ministry reaction to the Crimean blast: pic.twitter.com/v8rUeTtFLc
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) August 9, 2022
The Russians, of course, are claiming its an accident:
According to Russia’s Defense Ministry, this was just detonation of “several munition projectiles” for absolutely no reason. No casualties, nothing significant.
Have we heard something like this back in April? pic.twitter.com/4cjjPRqwCi— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) August 9, 2022
Well that Russian statement is no longer operable:
BATTLE DAMAGE REPORT: The first photos of the results of the attack one the Russian Naval Air Station at Saki. The Russian MoD had previously reported that no aircraft were damaged. This one, obviously, was. https://t.co/uN9Uvpg3u7 pic.twitter.com/RBhYPWRvS7
— Chuck Pfarrer (@ChuckPfarrer) August 9, 2022
Also, this is important to keep in mind:
US officials have clarified that targets in Crimea are fair game, including the Kerch Strait Bridge, as they see it as Russian occupied territory of Ukraine. No escalation ceiling for US weapons use for Crimean targets. As for what was used here, lots of fingers pointing…
— Tyler Rogoway (@Aviation_Intel) August 9, 2022
Just some very brief spot analysis. I think the Ukrainian communication strategy regarding this incident is very telling. While everyone speculates if the US or one of our NATO partners managed to ship Ukraine an ATACMS or two and no one noticed, or if this is a Ukrainian designed and built weapon as part of its munition program, or its Ukrainian partisan and/or Ukrainian SOF activity in Russian occupied Crimea, Ukraine has decided to go with a the strategic communication equivalent of the Cheshire Cat’s grin. And that’s both a good communication strategy and an effective one. Some times strategic ambivalence is the way to go.
I expect we’ll learn more in the days to come.
Your daily Patron!
« What is love? Oh baby don’t hurt me, don’t hurt me. No more. Ohhhh ohhhh ooooooo, oooooo, oooo » 🎶😀 pic.twitter.com/EfIMgZxk4u
— Patron (@PatronDsns) August 9, 2022
Here’s a new video from Patron’s official TikTok:
@patron__dsns Особистий простір? Ні, не чули! #песпатрон #патрондснс #славаукраїні
The caption translates as:
Personal space? No, they haven’t heard! #pespatron #patrondsns #slavaukraine
Open thread!
War For Ukraine Day 166: The US Announces the Next Military Aid Package To Ukraine
by Adam L Silverman| 34 Comments
This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine
As expected today was a long day with an early start. Tomorrow will be an even longer day with an even earlier start. So tonight’s post will be brief compared to normal. This may be the case for the rest of the week until things start to settle back into a rhythm. So I beg …
Ukrainians!
These days, people remember the Russian war against Georgia in 2008. There are many talks about the prerequisites of that war, about its consequences. About how that year’s refusal to provide Ukraine and Georgia with a NATO Membership Action Plan increased the audacity of the Russian leadership. But still, the war of that time has not yet become history, has not completely receded into the past. Therefore, it is necessary to talk more about what can be done than about what happened.
The challenges of that time are still very relevant today. And not only because the threat of further Russian aggression in this part of the Caucasus still exists, even though it is frozen. Only now has the world begun to realize the need for real, effective tools to prevent such aggressions and to bring any aggressors to justice.
2008, 2014, 2022 – the wars that started in these years have a different scale and nature, but there is one meaning of what happened: regional and global security mechanisms did not work.
That is why the principle of prevention, which we have been insisting on for a very long time even before February 24, is so necessary in international relations. If it is already clear that a state is preparing aggression – unjust, unprovoked, illegal, then the world’s reaction to its preparation should be the same as to the aggression that happened. It is necessary to act to prevent war, not to wait for strikes and victims.
After this Russian war against Ukraine, neither smoldering nor frozen conflict should remain. This is an important conclusion. Ukraine must return everything that Russia temporarily seized, and the aggressor state must be punished for the crime of aggression. And this is important not only for justice.
Only the obvious defeat of the aggressor, their loss of everything captured and their international legal responsibility for aggression are safeguards against any war.
This is what our diplomats, the Office, government officials and absolutely everyone involved in organizing a global political, economic and legal response to Russian aggression are working on. By protecting our state, we automatically protect everyone who has already been threatened or may still be threatened by a terrorist state.
And, of course, the greatest contribution is now made by the military – all Ukrainian heroes who are breaking the Russian terrorist machine on the battlefield.
Today I especially want to thank the Ukrainian anti-aircraft fighters of the Air Command “Center” and Air Command “South” for the successful destruction of Russian missiles that were launched from the Black Sea in the morning. The four downed Kalibrs are dozens of Ukrainian lives saved. Our military also managed to shoot down some of the missiles that Russian terrorists launched at Ukraine in the afternoon and in the evening.
Yes, our military means are still not enough to guarantee the downing of all Russian missiles. And we will do everything to ensure that such means appear in our country. But even now, the skill of our heroes makes it possible, at least partially, to reduce the Russian terrorist threat. I am grateful to everyone who ensures that!
We are actively informing the world about Russian nuclear blackmail – about shelling and mining of the Zaporizhzhia NPP facilities. There are already appropriate reactions from the international community. But it is necessary to speed up actions in response. Russia will not pay attention to words and concerns. New sanctions are needed against the terrorist state and the entire Russian nuclear industry for creating the threat of a nuclear disaster. The world should not forget about Chornobyl and remember that the Zaporizhzhia NPP is the largest in Europe. The Chornobyl disaster is an explosion in one reactor, the Zaporizhzhia NPP is six power units.
I held negotiations with the President of Botswana – the first in the history of our bilateral relations. We discussed cooperation within the UN and other international organizations. I expressed gratitude for the condemnation of Russian aggression and assured Mr. President that Ukraine is ready to continue being the guarantor of world food security.
Implementation of the grain export initiative continues – today, for the first time since February 24, a loaded ship left the Pivdennyi port. Currently, there is every chance to ensure the rhythmic nature of such exports. However, as in previous days, the key thing is the ability of the partners to prevent any attempts by Russia to disrupt exports and exacerbate the global food crisis again.
And I want to remind all our agrarians, all workers of our ports, all those involved in related industries and all those who comment on this that sea export was restored primarily thanks to our warriors who protected the relevant water area: our intelligence, our special operations forces and “Alpha” of the Security Service of Ukraine, gunners, the Navy, the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, border guards and our entire heroic army that defends the state.
A new package of American support for Ukraine in the amount of one billion dollars was announced today. These are, in particular, rockets for HIMARS, ammunition for artillery and many other really useful things. I am grateful to President Biden and the people of the United States for this support, 100% of which is used to protect freedom, our common freedom.
I signed a new decree on awarding combatants. 183 of our defenders were awarded state awards, four of them posthumously.
Eternal memory to all those who gave their lives for Ukraine!
Gratitude to everyone who fights for the country!
Glory to Ukraine!
Here are the details of the US military aid package announced today:
Additionally, Finland will be joining Sweden and Britain in training the Ukrainian military in Britain.
#Finland, following #Sweden, will take part in the training of the #Ukrainian military in the #UK. pic.twitter.com/VMfPNSyKBS
— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) August 8, 2022
Here is the British MOD’s assessment for today:
And here is their updated macro level map for today:
Here’s a hypothetical range map of a single HIMARS reposted by former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer:
DEEP REACH: Friend and colleague J. comme JéJé @HeliosRunner has posted this ‘range map’ of a hypothetically placed HIMARS Multiple Launch Rocket System. Highly mobile, a HIAMRS battery could operate anywhere in this circle and hit RU targets from Kherson to Donetsk. https://t.co/d0VwPMlLdw pic.twitter.com/nw1mgFitZp
— Chuck Pfarrer (@ChuckPfarrer) August 8, 2022
The Ukrainian Security Service has rolled up a Russian assassination cell operating in Ukraine:
⚡️Ukrainian security service was able to prevent murders of Defense Minister @oleksiireznikov, head of @DI_Ukraine Kyrylo Budanov and a famous activist by employees of Russian military intelligence.
They were promised $100-150K for each murder.
Source: Security Service of 🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/xOhZs3OQ3I
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) August 8, 2022
Here is the Ukrainian SBU’s official statement (via machine translation):
The Security Service prevented a series of contract killings of representatives of the top military-political leadership and public figures of Ukraine. As a result of a multi-stage special operation, the sabotage and intelligence group of the Main Directorate of the General Staff of the USSR (better known as the GRU) was neutralized.
The attackers were preparing for the physical liquidation of the Minister of Defense and the head of the Main Directorate of Intelligence of our country, as well as a well-known Ukrainian activist.
For the murder of each of them, the Russian “curators” promised a reward in the amount of 100 to 150 thousand dollars. USA.
It was established that the DRG was formed by staff members of the military intelligence of the Russian Federation to carry out subversive activities on the territory of Ukraine. It included a resident of temporarily occupied Luhansk, who as part of the illegal armed formations of the terrorist organization “LNR” took an active part in combat operations against the ATO forces in the east.
On the instructions of the coordinator from Moscow, he, using his connections among criminal circles, was looking for a killer to commit contract killings.
A resident of Kyiv responded to his “offer”. For 5 thousand dollars. He agreed with the USA to eliminate a Ukrainian soldier who, according to the occupiers, was allegedly involved in the physical massacre of Russian prisoners of war.
This assassination was supposed to be a “test trial” before the main tasks of the enemy.
And in order to assassinate the heads of the defense departments, the “liaison” decided to personally arrive on the territory under the control of the Ukrainian authorities. Here, together with an accomplice, they had to prepare a “liquidation” plan and submit it for approval to their managers in the Russian Federation.
The attacker disguised the routes of movement, so he entered Ukraine through the territory of Belarus.
SBU employees documented his arrival in the Volyn region through the Domanove checkpoint and his meeting with an accomplice.
In order to prevent the commission of particularly serious crimes, counter-intelligence officers of the Security Service with the involvement of soldiers of the Central Security Service “A” detained both criminals in Kovel.
During the search, evidence of criminal acts, as well as a passport of a citizen of the Russian Federation, were found in the “bondman’s possession”.
Currently, both detainees have been charged with treason committed under martial law and intentional murder. The issue of choosing a preventive measure in the form of detention is being resolved.
“The enemy cannot win on the battlefield, so he resorts to his usual methods – he tries to organize assassination attempts on the military and heads of Ukrainian authorities. And thereby once again proves to the whole world that Russia is a terrorist state that does not follow any civilized rules. But we perfectly understand what to expect from the Russian Federation, so we act in advance and neutralize the enemy’s special operations in advance. We will continue to do this!” – emphasized acting Head of the Security Service of Ukraine Vasyl Malyuk.
Complex measures are underway to bring to justice the Russian coordinators of subversive activities who are currently hiding in the Russian Federation.
Crime detection measures were carried out by employees of the Main Department of the SBU in Kyiv and the Kyiv region together with units of the SBU of the Volyn region, the National Police and under the procedural guidance of the Pechersk District Prosecutor’s Office of Kyiv.
The BBC has more details on what’s going on at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant:
Russian forces occupying the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant have turned the site into a military base to launch attacks against Ukrainian positions, the head of Ukraine’s nuclear power company says.
Petro Kotin told the BBC the threat to the plant was “great”, but that it remained safe.
For days, Ukraine and Russia have blamed each other for attacks on the site, Europe’s largest nuclear plant, raising concerns of a major accident.
The complex has been under Russian occupation since early March, although Ukrainian technicians still operate it.
Over the weekend, Ukraine accused Russian forces of attacking the Soviet-era site, saying two workers were taken to hospital with shrapnel injuries and that three radiation sensors had been damaged.
Mr Kotin, who heads Enerhoatom, said 500 Russian soldiers were at the plant, and that they had positioned rocket launchers in the area, claims that cannot be independently verified.
“They [Russian forces] use it [the power plant] like a shield against the Ukrainian forces, because nobody from Ukraine is going to do something,” Mr Kotin said.
“The Ukrainian Armed Forces know that these are Ukrainian personnel and this is a Ukrainian plant and there are Ukrainian people [there] so we aren’t going to kill our people, our staff and damage our infrastructure.”
The plant’s staff, Mr Kotin said, were working under pressure and in danger, and some had been captured, beaten and tortured.
He said Russia’s plans were to disconnect the plant from Ukraine’s grid and eventually connect it to Russia’s system.
Oleksandr Sayuk, the mayor of Nikopol, which sits on the opposite side of the Dnipro river, told the BBC last week that his city was under Russian shelling “almost every night”, and that the attacks were being carried out by forces at the nuclear plant.
The tensions have led to growing calls for international inspectors to be allowed to visit the site.
The UN Secretary General, Antonio Guterres, said “any attack [on] a nuclear plant is a suicidal thing”, while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky described Russia’s actions as “nuclear terrorism”.
“There is no such nation in the world that could feel safe when a terrorist state fires at a nuclear plant,” Mr Zelensky said in his nightly address on Sunday.
Russia, however, denied the accusations, and blamed the Ukrainian forces for the attacks. The country’s defence ministry said a high-voltage power line had been damaged as a result of the shelling.
More at the link!
Business Insider has reported that Paul Manafort has recently admitting sending the 2016 Trump campaign internal polling data to his Russian GRU handler. Given how extensively I’ve written about this I’m just noting this.
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
This song is not translated into English, but I will tell you here. A "fashion" for Jack Russell Terriers began in Ukraine…because of me. I assure you that not everyone will be able to cope with us. And it is better to take an animal from a shelter: they are adorable 🥰 pic.twitter.com/WRZlYclmIN
— Patron (@PatronDsns) August 8, 2022
It’s the same video at Patron’s official TikTok, so that does it for tonight.
Open thread!
War For Ukraine Day 165: Almost All of Ukraine Was Under Air Raid Warning Earlier Today
by Adam L Silverman| 31 Comments
This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine
Earlier today almost all of Ukraine was under air raid warning: Update: Military depots were hit by Russian missile strikes in Vinnytsia region, local authorities confirmed. There are casualties. They are looking into why an air raid alert was missing. Still no official info about explosions in other regions — Olga Tokariuk (@olgatokariuk) August 7, …
Good health to you, fellow Ukrainians!
Today is the Day of the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and now I want to once again congratulate all military pilots and also all defenders of our skies on a professional holiday.
We are all proud of you and wish you so many victories that the Russian soldiers are simply afraid of even the very thought of our Ukrainian sky.
This morning, I congratulated the fighters and commanders of the Air Force, handed out state awards to the best warriors.
I handed over the “Golden Star” orders to the wives of the fallen Heroes of Ukraine – Lieutenant colonel Eduard Vahorovsky and Major Dmytro Kolomiyets. They gave their lives saving their brothers and protecting our state. Eternal memory and gratitude to the Heroes!
I spoke today with President of the European Council Charles Michel. I informed him about the situation on the battlefield, about the threat that Russia created by striking at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. There is no such nation in the world that can feel safe when a terrorist state fires at a nuclear plant. God forbid, if something irreparable happens, no one will stop the wind that will spread the radioactive contamination. Therefore, a principled response of the international community to these Russian attacks on the Zaporizhzhia NPP – the largest in Europe – is needed right now.
The situation in Donbas remains very difficult. Our army is doing everything possible to stop the Russian terror and inflict the greatest possible losses on the occupiers. Avdiivka, Pisky, Maryinka, Bakhmut and other hot areas in the Donetsk region take the main efforts and, unfortunately, many lives.
It is also difficult in the Kharkiv region, in the south of our country, where the occupiers are trying to concentrate their forces.
The key thing now, just as before, is weapons for our defense, weapons from partners. Every day without any pauses, we work to increase the supply of weapons, to send more powerful and long-range systems to the front.
And next week we expect news from partners regarding support packages. Good news.
In this summer time, every week there are more and more reports that the occupiers are preparing for pseudo-referendums in the occupied areas of the south of our country. I want to say a very simple thing: everyone who helps the occupiers in any way realize their intention will be held accountable. They will bear responsibility to Ukraine.
The position of our state remains the same: we will not give up anything of ours, and if the occupiers follow the path of these pseudo-referendums, they will close for themselves any possibility of negotiations with Ukraine and the free world, which the Russian side will definitely need in a certain moment.
Next week, I will continue the practice of political appeals to representatives of partner states and nations who defend freedom together with us. A number of important negotiations are also planned – and not only with current politicians.
As before, Ukraine will do everything to make our struggle and Ukrainian needs known in all countries of the world and in all audiences – even those who usually do not follow political life.
In particular, American actress Jessica Chastain arrived in Kyiv today. She visited “Okhmatdyt” and saw with her own eyes the consequences of the Russian occupation in Irpin, Kyiv region.
Her story about our war will definitely be heard. We are preparing an important humanitarian event.
And I am grateful to all friends of Ukraine abroad and to everyone who helps expand our ties in the world.
We are doing everything to win, everything to protect our country.
I wish all of us Ukrainians a fruitful new week!
Glory to our warriors!
Glory to Ukraine!
There was no operational update today from Ukraine’s MOD.
Here is the British MOD’s assessment for today:
They did not issue an updated map for today.
Here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s update map and analysis of the battle of Kherson:
KHERSON / 2130 UTC 7 AUG / Ukrainian Partisans and and Special Operations Forces continue to identify lucrative targets for HIMARS and precision artillery. Reports indicate a strikes in the vicinity of the Kherson airfield and the M-14 HWY bridge. pic.twitter.com/9J0bRlgD8L
— Chuck Pfarrer (@ChuckPfarrer) August 7, 2022
Speaking of the south of Ukraine, the Ukrainian Air Force went on the attack on Friday!
Alexey #Arestovych, adviser to the head of the Office of the President. On August 5, the Ukrainian Air Force launched a massive attack on the Russians in the #Kherson region. "There were 8-10 planes in one sortie at a time, and there was more than one sortie" #War_in_Ukraine pic.twitter.com/rAiRC7EuwZ
— Харьков_Живет Kharkiv_Lives (@HarZizn) August 6, 2022
Most likely included these airedales:
A pair of Ukrainian Su-25s, each carrying four empty O-25 rocket pods and a pair of drop tanks, head back from the front pic.twitter.com/CLLGLy0Gap
— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) August 6, 2022
Tallyho!!!!!
Earlier today the Ukrainian Army once again targeted the Antonovsky Bridge with their HIMARS!
PRECISION STRIKE: This evening HIMARS again engaged the M-14 HWY Antonovsky bridge in Kherson. The north and south parts of the span were targeted. Sources provided this photo of a secondary fire on the span. The RU 42nd Army remains dependent on a pontoon ferry for supplies. pic.twitter.com/w9wtnnOYai
— Chuck Pfarrer (@ChuckPfarrer) August 7, 2022
Apparently the commander of Russian forces in Zaporizhzhia is not particularly tightly tethered:
“This will be Russian land or scorched earth!” The commander of Russian forces in Zaporizhzhya, who’s also the head of Russia’s defense “against” radioactive, chemical and biological threats reportedly threatens “various scenarios” at Enerhodar plant. pic.twitter.com/LZ5MfAADjL
— Charles McPhedran (@charliekreuz) August 7, 2022
“And we are not hiding it from our enemy. We are alerting them. They know that it’ll be Russian, or nobody’s. We are prepared for the consequences of [taking] this step.” @iaeaorg @antonioguterres
— Charles McPhedran (@charliekreuz) August 7, 2022
Again: what could possibly go wrong?
Yesterday, The Guardian did a deep dive into the Olenivka Detention Center:
Screams from soldiers being tortured, overflowing cells, inhuman conditions, a regime of intimidation and murder. Inedible gruel, no communication with the outside world, and days marked off with a home-made calendar written on a box of tea.
This, according to a prisoner who was there, is what conditions are like inside Olenivka, the notorious detention centre outside Donetsk where dozens of Ukrainian soldiers burned to death in a horrific episode late last month while in Russian captivity.
Anna Vorosheva – a 45-year-old Ukrainian entrepreneur – gave a harrowing account to the Observer of her time inside the jail. She spent 100 days in Olenivka after being detained in mid-March at a checkpoint run by the pro-Russian Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) in eastern Ukraine.
She had been trying to deliver humanitarian supplies to Mariupol, her home city, which the Russian army had besieged. The separatists arrested her and drove her in a packed police van to the prison, where she was held until early July on charges of “terrorism”.
Now recovering in France, Vorosheva said she had no doubt Russia “cynically and deliberately” murdered Ukrainian prisoners of war. “We are talking about absolute evil,” she said.
The fighters were blown up on 29 July in a mysterious and devastating explosion. Moscow claims Ukraine killed them with a US-made precision-guided Himars rocket. Satellite images and independent analysis, however, suggest they were obliterated by a powerful bomb detonated from inside the building.
Russia says 53 prisoners were killed and 75 injured. Ukraine has been unable to confirm these figures and has called for an investigation. The victims were members of the Azov battalion. Until their surrender in May, they had defended Mariupol’s Azovstal steel plant, holding out underground.
A day before the blast, they were transferred to a separate area in the camp’s industrial zone, some distance from the grimy two-storey concrete block where Vorosheva shared a cell with other women prisoners. Video shown on Russian state TV revealed charred bodies and twisted metal bunk beds.
“Russia didn’t want them to stay alive. I’m sure some of those ‘killed’ in the explosion were already corpses. It was a convenient way of accounting for the fact they had been tortured to death,” she said.
Male prisoners were regularly removed from their cells, beaten, then locked up again. “We heard their cries,” she said. “They played loud music to cover the screams. Torture happened all the time. Investigators would joke about it and ask inmates, ‘What happened to your face?’ The soldier would reply, ‘I fell over’, and they would laugh.
“It was a demonstration of power. The prisoners understood that anything could happen to them, that they might easily be killed. A small number of the Azov guys were captured before the mass surrender in May.”
Vorosheva said there was constant traffic around Olenivka, known as correctional colony No 120. A former Soviet technical school, it was converted in the 1980s into a prison, and later abandoned. The DNR began using it earlier this year to house enemy civilians.
Captives arrived and departed every day at the camp, 20km south-west of occupied Donetsk, Vorosheva told the Observer. Around 2,500 people were held there, with the figure sometimes rising to 3,500-4,000, she estimated. There was no running water or electricity.
The atmosphere changed when around 2,000 Azov fighters were bussed in on the morning of 17 May, she said. Russian flags were raised and the DNR colours taken down. Guards were initially wary of the new prisoners. Later they talked openly about how they were going to brutalise and humiliate them, she said.
“We were frequently called Nazis and terrorists. One of the women in my cell was an Azovstal medic. She was pregnant. I asked if I could give her my food ration. I was told, ‘No, she’s a killer’. The only question they ever asked me was, ‘Do you know any Azov soldiers?’”
Conditions for the female inmates were grim. She said they were not tortured but received barely any food – 50g of bread for dinner and sometimes porridge. “It was fit for pigs,” she said. She suspected the prison governor siphoned off money allocated for meals. The toilets overflowed and the women were given no sanitary products. The cells were so overcrowded they slept in shifts. “It was tough. People were crying, worried about their kids and families.” Asked if the guards ever showed sympathy, she said an anonymous person once left them a bottle of shampoo.
According to Vorosheva, the camp’s staff were brainwashed by Russian propaganda and considered Ukrainians to be Nazis. Some were local villagers. “They blamed us for the fact that their lives were terrible. It was like an alcoholic who says he drinks vodka because his wife is no good.
“The philosophy is: ‘Everything is horrible for us, so everything should be horrible for you’. It’s all very communist.”
Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, has called the explosion “a deliberate Russian war crime and a deliberate mass murder of Ukrainian prisoners of war”. Last week, his office and Ukraine’s defence ministry gave details of clues which they say point to the Kremlin’s guilt.
Citing satellite images and phone intercepts and intelligence, they said Russian mercenaries from the Wagner group carried out the killings in collaboration with Vladimir Putin’s FSB spy agency. They point to the fact a row of graves was dug in the colony a few days before the blast.
The operation was approved at the “highest level” in Moscow, they allege. “Russia is not a democracy. The dictator is personally responsible for everything, whether it’s MH17, Bucha or Olenivka,” one intelligence source said. “The question is: when will Putin acknowledge his atrocities.”
One version of events being examined by Kyiv is that the blast may have been the result of intra-service rivalries between Russia’s FSB and GRU military intelligence wings. The GRU negotiated Azovstal’s surrender with its Ukrainian army counterpart, sources suggest – a deal the FSB may have been keen to wreck.
The soldiers should have been protected by guarantees given by Russia to the UN and the International Committee of the Red Cross that the Azov detainees would be properly treated. Since the blast, the Russians have refused to give international representatives any access to the site.
Vorosheva said the Red Cross were allowed into the camp in May. She said the Russians took the visitors to a specially renovated room and did not allow them to talk independently to the prisoners. “It was a show,” she said. “We were asked to give our clothes’ size and told the Red Cross would hand out something. Nothing reached us.”
Other detainees confirmed Vorosheva’s version of events and said the Azov soldiers were treated worse than civilians. Dmitry Bodrov, a 32-year-old volunteer worker, told the Wall Street Journal the guards took anyone they suspected of misbehaviour to a special disciplinary section of the camp for beatings.
More at the link!
I’ve seen the reporting regarding Russia asking the DPRK for personnel to assist in the re-invasion of Ukraine. The original source for this was Russian state backed television. Until or unless there’s confirmation from a more reliable source its RUMINT at best.
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
When I heard about 100,000 soldiers from DPRK who "will help russia fight nazism in Ukraine." But for the first two weeks, they’ll be amazed by smartphones, solar batteries, and Teslas in UA villages. And then they will want to accept Ukrainian citizenship (who’ll survive) 😛 pic.twitter.com/GlFY8PXchl
— Patron (@PatronDsns) August 7, 2022
And we finish with a new video from Patron’s official TikTok:
@patron__dsns Не помітили такий талант… @Злата Огневич #песпатрон #патрондснс
The caption translates as:
They didn’t notice such a talent… @Zlata Ognevich #pespatron #patrondsns
Open thread!
War For Ukraine Day 164: Evidence of More Russian War Crimes Come To Light
by Adam L Silverman| 33 Comments
This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier this evening. Video below, English transcript after the jump (emphasis mine):
War For Ukraine Day 164: Evidence of More Russian War Crimes Come To LightPost + Comments (33)
Dear Ukrainians, I wish you health!
I will brief you on the past week.
First of all, I want to thank all our soldiers, who are extremely bravely – and in the hottest points of the frontline, with simply superhuman efforts – holding back the enemy.
The Russian army will not change its tactics. The occupiers know that they will lose to the Ukrainians in direct struggle, they are inferior in skill, and that is why the enemy is counting on artillery and indiscriminate shelling.
They try to destroy everything in front of them and enter the ruins. And I am grateful to everyone who, even in such conditions, still is containing the occupiers in Donbas, in Kharkiv region, in the Mykolaiv direction – wherever the confrontation is the most acute.
During this week, the Armed Forces of Ukraine and our intelligence have achieved powerful results in destroying the logistics of the Russian army, the rear bases of the occupiers. And every strike on the enemy’s ammunition depots, on their command posts, on accumulations of Russian equipment saves the lives of all of us, the lives of Ukrainian military and civilians.
Of course, I thank the partners – everyone who supplies Ukraine with the necessary weapons. In particular, another package of support from the United States was approved this week, which also includes ammunition for the HIMARS systems. Thank you very much. All of them are used as accurately and beneficially as possible for the overall strategy of our defense. We are doing everything to get yet more effective and modern weapons.
It was possible to restore the sea export of Ukrainian agricultural products. Our ports on the Black Sea are operating again. And although it is still too early to give general assessments of the process, we can still say that it is positive both for our state and for all our partners.
However, the key security risk has not yet been removed. The threat of Russian provocations and terrorist attacks remains. Everyone should be aware of this.
But if the partners fulfill their part of the commitment and guarantee the security of the supply, it will really solve the global food crisis.
And we must not forget that the restoration of our sea exports was made possible primarily thanks to our soldiers – all those who defend Odesa and secured the liberation of Snake Island. These are simply heroes.
During the week, opportunities for Ukraine in the African direction were significantly expanded. There were new contacts with state leaders and communication with journalists. I will continue this work next week – another series of negotiations is planned.
Unfortunately, we have a significant worsening of the situation around the Zaporizhzhia NPP. Russian terrorists became the first in the world to use a nuclear plant for terror. The biggest in Europe! We will draw the world’s attention to this and insist on new sanctions against Russia for creating such a global threat.
And despite the fact that the Russian shelling of the nuclear plant is one of the most dangerous crimes against Ukrainians and all Europeans, against the right to life of every person, for some reason there is no report or even a simple notification from Amnesty International about it. A very eloquent silence, which once again indicates the manipulative selectivity of this organization.
This week there are new sanction steps from Canada and the United States. Switzerland made an important decision regarding support for the seventh EU sanctions package. The general tendency to strengthen sanctions remains unchanged and will continue increasing the price for this terror, terror against our people, for the terrorist state.
I want to thank everyone who develops our UNITED24 public charity platform, and all the ambassadors of this platform – Andriy Shevchenko, Elina Svitolinia, Liev Schreiber, the band Imagine Dragons, Demna. This week we summed up the three-month results of work the UNITED24 platform. More than UAH 6 billion were raised in contributions for reconstruction, equipment for hospitals, for the purchase of ambulances – dozens of ambulances were purchased. There is already the first helicopter bought using the funds raised by UNITED24. It will be used to rescue the wounded. It was possible to attract help from more than a hundred countries.
One of the most important areas for August and September is the implementation of our Fast Recovery Plan. What needs to be done in the territory liberated from the enemy to give people conditions for a normal life and to prepare for the autumn and winter season. In total, 1,060 settlements have already been liberated, and the absolute majority of them require significant restoration work, demining, and the construction of social facilities. And I thank all our partners who joined the relevant work.
In particular, this week the delegation of Estonia visited the districts of Zhytomyr region, which the country is helping with recovery. Estonia was the first within the Fast Recovery Plan to choose objects for financing.
We work with diplomats and companies in all other areas that need support and restoration.
We believe in our defenders! We help the defense!
Let’s remain united and do everything for the victory of Ukraine! It will be!
Eternal glory to our soldiers!
Glory to Ukraine!
Here is today’s operational update from Ukraine’s MOD:
The operational update regarding the russian invasion on 06.00, on August 6, 2022
Glory to Ukraine! The one hundred sixty fourth (164) day of the heroic resistance of the Ukrainian people to a russian military invasion continues.
russian occupiers continue to carry out air and missile strikes on military and civilian objects on the territory of Ukraine.
There are no major changes on the Volyn, Polissya, and Siversky directions. The enemy carried out artillery shelling in the areas of the settlements of Hai and Mykhalchyna Sloboda of the Chernihiv oblast, as well as Nova Huta of the Sumy oblast.
In the Slobozhansky direction, the enemy conducted defensive combat operations with the aim of holding the occupied lines and preventing the offensive of Ukrainian units. Conducted remote mining of the area.
In the Kharkiv direction, the districts of Prudyanka, Slatyne, Pytomnyk, Petrivka, Korobochkyne, Mospanove and Zamulivka were shelled with barrel and rocket artillery. Carried out airstrikes near Verkhniy Saltiv and Lebyazhe.
Conducted aerial reconnaissance by UAVs in the areas of Lisne, Pytomnyk, Ryasne, Protopopivka, Pryshyb and Nortsivka settlements.
In the Slovyansk direction, the enemy carried out fire damage from artillery of various types near Mazanivka, Krasnopilla, Sulihivka, Karnaukhivka, and Virnopilla.
The enemy is conducting an offensive operation in the Donetsk direction, concentrating its main efforts on the Bakhmut and Avdiivka directions. Uses attack and army aviation.
In the Kramatorsk direction, shelling was recorded near Spirne and Ivano-Daryivka.
In the direction of Bakhmut, the enemy from tanks, barrel and jet artillery shelled the areas of the settlements of Bakhmutske, Toretsk, Bilohorivka, Krasnopolivka, Pivnichne and Vershyna. Airstrikes near Zaitseve, Soledar, Bakhmut and Berestove.
It led offensive battles in the direction of Yakovlivka – Vershyna and Kodema – Zaitseve, it was unsuccessful and left. Leads an offensive in the direction of Bakhmut, hostilities continue.
In the Avdiyivka direction, the enemy fired from barrel and rocket artillery in the vicinity of New York, Pervomaisky, Vodyane and Opytne. Carried out airstrikes near Novohradske, Pavlivka, and Prechistivka. It led an offensive in the direction of Lozove – Nevelske, was unsuccessful, withdrew. Conducted regrouping.
On the Novopavlivsk and Zaporizhzhia directions, enemy shelling from barrel, rocket artillery and tanks was recorded in the areas of the settlements of Vuhledar, Pavlivka, Shevchenko, Novodanylivka, Vilne Pole, Burlatske, Zelene Pole, Zeleny Hai, Chervone, Stepove and Vremivka. Airstrikes were carried out near Maryinka, Mali Shcherbaky, Novoandriivka, Novosilka and Temyrivka.
The enemy was conducting aerial reconnaissance by BpLA near Krasnohorivka, Novosilka, and Tavriyskyi.
The enemy is conducting a defensive operation in the South Buz direction. The main efforts are focused on holding the occupied areas and inflicting maximum losses on the units of the Defense Forces.
The enemy fired tanks and various types of artillery in the areas of Lymany, Prybuzke, Tavriyske, Luch, Myrne, Partyzanske, Blahodatne, Shyroke, Kyselivka, Kvitneve, Kavkaz, Bila Krynytsia, Bilohirka, Dobryanka, Osokorivka, and Mykolaivka. It carried out airstrikes in the Andriyivka area, as well as the Khutorska valley and the Plotnytsky tract.
Reconnaissance actions of enemy UAVs were recorded in the vicinity of Bila Krynytsia, Nyzhni Sirohozy, Lozove and Andriivka.
In the waters of the Black Sea, the enemy’s ship group continues to perform the specified tasks. There remains a threat of missile strikes throughout the territory of Ukraine.
Four sea-based cruise missile carriers are ready to use high-precision weapons.
We believe in the Armed Forces of Ukraine! Together to victory!
Glory to Ukraine!
Here is today’s assessment from the British MOD:
They did not post an updated map for today.
Marine veteran and current FPRI senior fellow Rob Lee is not completely on board with the force strength projections the British MOD is using for Russia:
I’m skeptical that Russian BTGs are 800-1,000 man strong at this point. https://t.co/lhMoNGVE1T
— Rob Lee (@RALee85) August 6, 2022
Battalions raised with volunteers will need more leadership to function, which probably means they have to be smaller (no time to train NCOs). I've been skeptical of BTGs as a metric since April, and the variance is only greater now with volunteer units.3/https://t.co/kaGF9qnDQg
— Rob Lee (@RALee85) August 6, 2022
Here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s most recently updated map and assessment for the battle for Kherson from earlier today:
KHERSON AXIS / 1830 UTC 6 AUG / UKR Partisans and deeply inserted SOF continue to provide targeting data on RU ammo storage. RU media reports that an assassination attempt was carried out against Vitaliy Hur, deputy head of occupation authorities in Nova Kakhovka. pic.twitter.com/crgL3iO1vP
— Chuck Pfarrer (@ChuckPfarrer) August 6, 2022
Imagery from Poposna emerged earlier today. It is graphic – so WARNING – and seems to indicate further Russian war crimes. The imagery is of a Ukrainian POW’s severed and decaying head mounted on a pike.
We saw today people’s heads on a spike in Russian-occupied Popasna.
This is only a fraction of the Russian war crimes committed. I’m terrified when I think of what we’ll see when we retake the Russian-occupied cities and villages.
— Oleksiy Sorokin (@mrsorokaa) August 5, 2022
Multiple colleagues say this is authentic.
Because it’s so sickening that I had to ask.
I’m sure Amnesty is sending thoughts and prayers. https://t.co/uoRnvPLHKa
— Natalia Antonova 🇺🇸🇺🇦 (@NataliaAntonova) August 5, 2022
We also have further details of Russia’s attack on the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant:
Why russians are doing this if they have seized the ZNPP? They try to stage a false flag, to accuse Ukraine of attacking a nuclear facility ofc, & also probably to justify the disconnection of the plant from the UA electricity system, what they have threatened earlier to do
— Olena Halushka (@OlenaHalushka) August 6, 2022
- Ukrainian staff who run the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant & try to ensure its safe operations are real Heroes. They work under huge pressure. Energoatom has just reported that russians occupied all basements & in case of new russian shellings Ukrainians will be in danger
russia is a nuclear terrorist #russiaIsATerroristState Energoatom issued a statement that russians aim at ruining the plant’s infrastructure & damaging of the power lines through which the energy is supplied to the UA electricity system. They call on the UN, @iaeaorg & entire int’l community to ensure prompt demilitarization of ZNPP ZNPP is covering the south of Ukraine. Given that russians not only fail to advance in that direction, but AFU are de-occupying villages, russians may aim to blackout the region, amplifying the humanitarian catastrophe. That’s in addition to the huge risk of radiation emergency
Yesterday, Bellingcat published their report on the Russian soldier who castrated and executed the Ukrainian POW:
Editor’s note: this article contains descriptions of sexual violence and murder which readers may find disturbing.
On July 28, a series of horrifying videos circulated on pro-Russian social media which depicted an act of sexual violence and execution of what appeared to be a Ukrainian prisoner of war. Bellingcat has not linked to these videos due to their extremely graphic nature.
The three videos (hereafter ‘the violent videos’) were initially posted on a Russian telegram channel whose name translates as ‘Cargo 200, death to Ukrainians’, which extolls casualties among Ukrainian armed forces. The videos were subsequently reposted on the popular Rosich Telegram channel run by a nationalist Russian mercenary group.
The videos were initially celebrated by the channel administrators and most of the commenting users, until several hours later they were suddenly disowned by the same as “likely forgeries”, allegedly planted in the pro-Russian channels by agents of Ukraine aiming to discredit the Russian army.
A description of the act in the videos, which each show a part of the same sequence of events, follows in the closed drop-down box below.
Description of the Three Videos (Caution: disturbing content)
In recent days, journalists and open source researchers have sought to identify the culprits of this apparent war crime, with mixed success. Several incorrect identifications of the man who committed the act – a soldier wearing a cowboy-style hat – were made by various media outlets and individuals online.
Bellingcat researchers have reviewed the footage, which does not contain visible signs of editing or tampering. However, the authenticity of the videos cannot be validated with purely technical means due to the low resolution of the video and the absence of metadata.
Bellingcat’s investigation into visual clues in the videos using the available open source evidence corroborates the authenticity of the three violent videos and indicates that fighters from ‘Akhmat’, a Chechen paramilitary formation serving with the Russian armed forces in Ukraine, were present at the scene of the murder.
The link to ‘Akhmat’ was uncovered while investigating a man who appeared in multiple news broadcasts about the group who wore the same distinctive hat, bracelet and military fatigues as seen worn by one individual in the mutilation video. Several visual clues in these news broadcasts also suggested that they could have been filmed near, and in the same time frame, as the murder videos, including one filmed at the same location in July of this year.
The identity of the individual who wears the cowboy hat in the videos of the ‘Akhmat’ fighters is known to Bellingcat. However, Bellingcat has obscured his image and name as while there are numerous commonalities, the face of the alleged perpetrator cannot be clearly seen in the videos of the act itself.
Bellingcat contacted this individual to offer him a right of reply. In a conversation with reporters, he acknowledged that he had been deployed to Ukraine as a member of the ‘Akhmat’ group, and that he was “the man in the cowboy hat” seen in the news broadcasts. While he denied that he appeared in the mutilation and execution videos, he did confirm that he had been detained and questioned by the Russian security services over the footage, who had told him that it actually depicted Ukrainian soldiers mutilating one of their own comrades.
If you’re interested, click across and read the rest. There’s a lot more in the report include both the imagery they used to do the analysis and a full methodological description. WARNING: SOME OF THIS IS GRAPHIC!!!!
Also yesterday, The Washington Post reported that Putin has turned to Erdogan to bail him out on the economic and sanctions regime:
Russia and Turkey announced Friday that they will strengthen their economic cooperation, amid Western fears that Moscow is seeking new avenues to circumvent sanctions imposed for its invasion of Ukraine.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Turkish counterpart, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, agreed to boost bilateral trade and take steps to work more closely in the transportation, agriculture, industry and finance sectors, according to a joint statement the leaders released after four hours of talks in Sochi, the Russian resort city on the Black Sea. It was the second time the two men had met in just over two weeks.
The statement did not mention the bilateral trade and economic pact that Putin had called for beforehand. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov did not respond to questions Friday evening about whether a deal had been signed.
Concerns are increasing in both the West and Ukraine that Moscow is seeking Erdogan’s assistance to bypass restrictions on its banking, energy and industrial sectors, which are biting deeper into its economy. Though a NATO nation, Turkey has not joined other member states in levying the sanctions.
A Russian proposal intercepted ahead of the meeting and shared with The Washington Post by Ukrainian intelligence called for Erdogan’s government to permit Russia to buy stakes in Turkish oil refineries, terminals and reservoirs — a move that economists say could help disguise the origin of its exports after the European Union’s oil embargo kicks in fully next year. Russia also requested that several state-owned Turkish banks allow correspondent accounts for Russia’s biggest banks — which economists and sanctions experts say would be a flagrant breach of Western sanctions — and that Russian industrial producers be allowed to operate out of free economic zones in Turkey.
There was no indication after the talks that Turkey had agreed to such arrangements, which would leave the country’s own banks and companies at risk of secondary sanctions and cut off their access to Western markets. Alexander Novak, Russia’s deputy prime minister, said the two countries had reached new agreements in the financial and banking sphere but did not give specifics.
A senior Turkish official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive diplomatic meeting, said Friday morning that the country remains “committed to Ukraine’s independence and sovereignty.” He added that Turkey “as a matter of principle … exclusively joins sanctions that are imposed by the United Nations.”
Western government officials, also speaking on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the situation, told The Post that they were not aware of the intercepted proposal but said they fearRussia is seeking ways to circumvent the war-related sanctions and their growing economic damage. Russian officials are traveling the world trying to find people who would be willing to do business with their financial institutions, they said, noting that Turkey is among a group of jurisdictions being approached because of their lax regard to enforcement.
With Russia cut off from much of the global economy, such overtures are a sign of the regime’s increasing worries, those Western officials and economists say. Putin has derided Western sanctions as a failure — a steady stream of revenue from energy sales has propped up the Russian ruble and the country’s financial system — and the International Monetary Fund now forecasts Russia’s economy to fall only 6 percent this year.
But economists say headline numbers mask a collapse across a large swath of Russian manufacturing, and they call the banking sector a “zombie system,” with the withdrawal of hard-currency deposits banned. Though Russia has sought to divert trade flows through countries like India and China, the Western-imposed block on imports of high-tech components has brought some industries to a standstill.
“The situation will be darker next year,” said Sergei Guriev, professor at France’s Sciences Po and former chief economist at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. “No one knows how things are going to function when the European oil embargo kicks in. We’re in unchartered territory.”
More at the link!
Finally, wait for it, wait for it…
This would have never happen if they just stayed home kissing their wives in Russia pic.twitter.com/8v6J1ZCnjf
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) August 6, 2022
Your daily Patron!
Namaste! Evening yoga with Patron. Relax your body and soul, and try not to think about the blue squirrel. Don’t! Oh, no. Now you can’t think about that😨 #patron #patronthedog #dog #squirrel pic.twitter.com/p6X2pPwaWc
— Patron (@PatronDsns) August 6, 2022
And a new video from Patron’s official TikTok:
@patron__dsns
The caption translates as:
😎 #pespatron #patrondsns #slavaukraini
And just because I’m feeling generous, here’s a Chef Jose Andres update:
Already crossing from Poland into @Ukraine and first thing I See? A @WCKitchen truck bringing some of the things that we can not buy inside Ukraine. Remember over 120 million meals served already all across! Amazing #FoodFighters this Ukranians… pic.twitter.com/sqlevkZBg8
— José Andrés (@chefjoseandres) August 6, 2022
Open thread!
War For Ukraine Day 163: The Director of Amnesty International’s Ukraine Office Resigned In Protest Today
by Adam L Silverman| 60 Comments
This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine
Early today Oksana Pokalchuk, the Director of Amnesty International for Ukraine, resigned in protest. Her resignation letter in English is below: I’ll have more on this below. Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier this evening. Video below, English transcript after the jump (emphasis mine):
Dear Ukrainians!
Three vessels with grain for export left our ports today – from Odesa and Chornomorsk. Almost 60,000 tonnes of corn are on board, which are expected by consumers in Turkey, the UK, and Ireland.
The first new vessel since February 24 is heading to the port of Chornomorsk for loading.
The main thing now is the constant increase in exports. Every adequate world player is interested in this. The more our grain will be on the global market, the smaller will be the harvest of political chaos in countries, primarily in Africa and Asia, but not only there. We must remember that this year the demand for imported food in Europe is much higher than expected. European harvests are smaller because of the heat. But the Ukrainian harvest of grain and oilseeds will most likely meet the forecasts – more than 65 million tonnes are expected. Therefore, if the partners do their part of the obligations under the Grain Initiative, the security part, and do not allow new Russian provocations in relation to our exports, then the food crisis, which has been so threatening to the world, can be overcome.
But the situation on the energy market, and especially for European consumers, continues to be very dangerous due to Russia’s cynical and worked out well gas blackmail. Instead of supplying gas to the territory of Europe in accordance with the contracts, Russia even simply burns it – and this is happening more than one week. Why does it do this? So that prices in Europe rise even more, so that ordinary Europeans suffer even more and so that it will be even more difficult for everyone on the continent to prepare for winter. This is a manifestation of Russia’s deliberate anti-European policy, anti-human policy and the effect of the old mistakes of Europeans who did not want to see that Gazprom, Russian gas pipelines bypassing Ukraine are the same weapons for Russia as tanks and artillery, and each of us, each in Europe is a target for them.
And we all have to defend ourselves now. Together to prepare for the new heating season. Together to respond to any provocations of Russia in the energy sector. Together to develop sanctions in response to Russian blackmail and terror.
Today, the occupiers created another extremely risky situation for everyone in Europe – they fired at the Zaporizhzhia NPP, twice in one day. This is the largest nuclear power plant on our continent. And any shelling of this facility is an open, brazen crime, an act of terror. Russia should bear responsibility for the very fact of creating a threat to the nuclear power plant. And this is not only another argument in favor of recognizing Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism. This is an argument in favor of applying tough sanctions against the entire Russian nuclear industry – from Rosatom to all related companies and individuals. This is purely a matter of safety. The one who creates nuclear threats to other nations is definitely not capable of using nuclear technologies safely.
Today I held a meeting devoted to the sanctions policy, confiscation of Russian assets. As government officials reported, assets worth UAH 28 billion have already been forcibly seized in Ukraine. This work continues. More than 900 facilities belonging to the Russian state are proposed to be confiscated. And if we evaluate the property package not only of the terrorist state, but also of its residents, then this are 36,000 items for seizure. All this will be sent to compensate for the damages that Russia causes through war and terror.
I also heard the results of the work of the group on the development and implementation of the international compensation mechanism and confiscation of Russian assets abroad. All our partners are actively working on this – in Europe, in the United States. Work on bills that will expand the possibilities for the confiscation of Russian assets for Ukraine is underway.
And Donbas burned out by Russian strikes, the abuse of the occupiers over Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, the shelling of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk region, Sumy region, Chernihiv region, Kyiv region, Zhytomyr region, Odesa region and other regions of Ukraine are what Russia will surely pay for: both politically and financially, and with its own future, which Russia is losing with every strike on our territory.
I spoke today with the President of Malawi. It is another African state, the ninth country, which Ukraine is in contact with for the first time at the highest level in the entire history of our independence. I assured Mr. President that Ukraine will make every effort so that every country interested in our agricultural products can meet its consumption needs. We also discussed other issues of stability and our cooperation in international organizations.
I also signed a decree awarding our soldiers. A total of 192 combatants were given state awards, 18 of them, unfortunately, posthumously.
Eternal gratitude to all who is fighting for our great state!
Thank you, great people of Ukraine!
Glory to Ukraine!
Yes, you read and/or heard that right, the Russians targeted the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Plant today.
📽️Ukrainian Enerhoatom says Russian troops staged a provocation and fired in the direction of Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. Vegetation nearby is on fire. #UkraineRussiaWar pic.twitter.com/EQdY5kyr7g
— MilitaryLand.net (@Militarylandnet) August 5, 2022
I’m sure it’s perfectly fine for the Russians to be targeting the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Plant.
What could go wrong?
Here is today’s operational update from Ukraine’s MOD:
The operational update regarding the russian invasion on 18.00, on August 5, 2022
Glory to Ukraine! The one hundred sixty third (163) day of the heroic resistance of the Ukrainian people to a russian military invasion continues.
There are no changes on the Volyn and Polissya directions.
In the Siversky direction, the enemy is holding separate units of the troops of the Western Military District in the border areas of the Bryansk and Kursk regions. Conducts engineering equipment of positions and installation of video surveillance systems.
The artillery shelled civilian infrastructure in the areas of Zalizniy Mist and Hremyach settlements in Chernihiv oblast and Starikovo, Sumy oblast.
In the Slobozhansky direction, the enemy continues to focus its efforts on preventing the Defense Forces from creating favorable conditions for resuming the offensive.
In the Kharkiv direction, the enemy used barrel and jet artillery to shell the areas of the settlements of Kharkiv, Ruska Lozova, Korobochkyne, Cherkaski Tyshky, Stary Saltiv, and Verkhniy Saltiv. Unmanned aerial vehicles conducted aerial reconnaissance near Ruska Lozova, Mali Prokhody, Husarivka and Chepil.
In the Slovyansk direction, the enemy did not conduct active offensive actions, but carried out fire damage from artillery of various types near Bohorodychne, Dolyna, Dibrivne, Velika Komyshuvakha, and Ridne.
In the Donetsk direction, the enemy is concentrating its efforts in the areas of Bakhmut and Avdiivka. It is trying to create favorable conditions for establishing control over the cities of Soledar and Bakhmut and pushing our troops away from the western outskirts of the city of Donetsk.
On the Kramatorsk and Bakhmut directions, the enemy used tanks, barrel and rocket artillery for shelling near Siversk, Hryhorivka, Verkhnyokamyanske, Bakhmut, Zaytseve, Soledar, Yakovlivka, and Kodema. Made an air strike near Vershyna.
With offensive actions, the occupiers tried to capture advantageous lines and improve the tactical position in the areas of Bakhmut, Zaytseve, and Vershyn, they did not succeed, they retreated.
In the Avdiivka direction, artillery shelling was recorded near Avdiivka, Novobakhmutivka, Nevelske, Netailove and Krasnohorivka. The enemy unsuccessfully tried to advance in the direction of the settlements of Krasnohorivka, Avdiivka and Pisky.
In the Novopavlivskyi and Zaporizhia directions, the enemy shelled the areas of Maryinka, Volodymyrivka, Novomykhailivka, Velyka Novosilka, Novoandriivka, Kamianske, Novosilka, Charivne, Novopil, Hulyaipole and Neskuchne from tanks, barrel and rocket artillery.
Ukrainian soldiers successfully repelled another enemy assault in the direction of Maryinka and forced the enemy to flee.
The occupiers carried out reconnaissance with unmanned aerial vehicles in the districts of Zaporizhzhia and Novoselivka Druha.
In the South Buh direction, the enemy is trying to hold the occupied positions and prevent our units from creating favorable conditions for a counteroffensive using available means of fire damage.
The enemy shelled the areas of the settlements of Posad-Pokrovske, Stepova Dolyna, Lupareve, Novomykolaivka, Novohrihorivka, Chervona Dolyna, Zeleny Hai, Andriivka, Trudolyubivka, Novovorontsovka, Topolyne, Potiomkine, Olhyne, Nikopol. Used aviation for strikes near Lozove, Veliky Artakov, and Andriivka.
The enemy made an offensive attempt in the direction of Lozova. It was decisively repulsed by Ukrainian soldiers and left.
Unmanned aerial vehicles are actively used to identify the positions of our units and adjust artillery fire.
In the waters of the Black and Azov Seas, the enemy naval group focuses its main efforts on supporting the land group, blocking civilian shipping in the northwestern part of the Black Sea, and damaging military facilities and infrastructure elements deep within the territory of Ukraine.
Four sea-based cruise missile carriers are ready to use high-precision weapons.
Our units continue to successfully carry out missile and artillery fire missions in the designated directions. The adversary experiences an acute shortage of trained and at least somehow motivated replenishment for units suffering losses as a result of the war in Ukraine.
We believe in the Armed Forces of Ukraine! Together to victory!
Glory to Ukraine!
There was no DOD backgrounder today. However, there is reporting from Reuters that the US is preparing another $1 billion military aid package for Ukraine:
WASHINGTON, Aug 5 (Reuters) – The Biden administration’s next security assistance package for Ukraine is expected to be $1 billion, one of the largest so far, and include munitions for long-range weapons and armored medical transport vehicles, three sources briefed on the matter told Reuters on Friday.
The package is expected to be announced as early as Monday and would add to about $8.8 billion in aid the United States has given Ukraine since Russia’s invasion on Feb. 24.
The officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said that President Joe Biden had not yet signed the next weapons package. They cautioned that weapons packages can change in value and content before they are signed.
However, if signed in its current form, it would be valued at $1 billion and include munitions for HIMARS, NASAMS surface-to-air missile system ammunition and as many as 50 M113 armored medical transports.
The new package follows a recent Pentagon decision to allow Ukrainians to receive medical treatment at a U.S. military hospital in Germany near Ramstein air base. read more
Last Monday, the Pentagon announced a separate security assistance package for Ukraine valued at up to $550 million, including additional ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS).
The White House declined to comment on the package.
The new package would be funded under the Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA), in which the president can authorize the transfer of articles and services from U.S. stocks without congressional approval in response to an emergency.
Much more at the link.
Here is the British MOD’s assessment for today:
And here is their updated map for today:
Here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s updated map and analysis for the battle in Kherson:
KHERSON / 2015 5 AUG / UKR sources report that Volodymyr Saldo, head of the RU puppet Kherson civic military administration, has been hospitalized and is in a medical coma. Fire and explosions near Oleshky: likely the result of an ammunition depot being struck by UKR artillery. pic.twitter.com/YvDH5p1dPh
— Chuck Pfarrer (@ChuckPfarrer) August 5, 2022
We’re going to sort of pause here and circle back to the Amnesty International brouhaha from last night. As you all recall I started last night with a brief synopsis of Amnesty International’s recently released report about Ukraine with a focus on the response from their Ukrainian director. I didn’t link to or post to the report for several reasons. The first, to be quite honest, is a personal one. I had had a very long day with some less than pleasant news and I was just trying to plow through the post so I could rack out. The second, which is more of a professional judgement sort of thing, is that I didn’t think it was worth posting or excerpting. I don’t find Amnesty International’s arguments persuasive, I don’t find the evidence they’re referring to as being actually relevant to the war that is actually being fought versus the war Amnesty International’s non-Ukrainian analysts living and writing in safe spaces far from the war think Ukraine should be fighting, nor do I find that evidence convincing. In fact their evidence seems quite flimsy. Finally, a lot of the arguments that Amnesty International made, as well as the overall framing of the report, mirror if not actually reproduce Russian agitprop justifications and rationalizations for their re-invasion of Ukraine.
However, to be thorough, here is the link to the report.
While I don’t want to make this about me, if you have a problem with how I do any particular post, calling me a liar is not going to make me respond to you and your concerns in a pleasant manner.
Now I’d like to get back to a couple of informed responses to the report.
The first is from the Ukrainian government:
The Ministry of Defense commented on the statement of the international human rights organization Amnesty International that Ukraine allegedly deploys military bases in hospitals and schools, violating the laws of war and endangering people’s lives. As an UNIAN correspondent reports, Deputy Defense Minister of Ukraine Anna Malyar said this during a briefing.
According to Malyar, Ukraine continues the policy of openness and an objective approach to the actions of both the aggressor and our military, which are taking defensive measures. In 2014, Ukraine itself applied to the International Criminal Court and allowed to investigate crimes against humanity and war crimes, unlike Russia.
I want to remind you that the Ukrainian law enforcement system and the courts investigated and sentenced those military men who committed crimes in the combat zone. We have many such examples. If there are facts, we are ready for an investigation, but only within the framework of the context, and not on bare accusations. But while we wait for the Russian enemy in the field, as some advise us, the Russians will occupy all our houses,” she stressed.
She stressed that our military is strengthening and defending cities and villages from invaders. Air defense is being deployed to cover the sky over populated areas. The authorities regularly carry out evacuations, but not all residents agree to this.
As UNIAN reported earlier, according to adviser to the head of the Office of the President Mikhail Podoliak, any statements about violations by the Ukrainian army are in the nature of an information operation to discredit the Armed Forces of Ukraine and undermine the supply of weapons from Western partners.
The next is from Edward Hunter Christie who previously served in a senior civilian position at NATO (IHL is International Humanitarian Law):
2-8
RUS knows where the military bases are, where the frontline is. Nearby woods or isolated structures would leave a tell-tale logistics trail RUS would rapidly identify. So, AI's point is wrong from an IHL perspective, because necessity isn't correctly assessed.— Edward Hunter Christie (@EHunterChristie) August 5, 2022
- 3-8 Necessity has many practical components for a defending nation, which furthermore has an inherent legal right to commandeer its civilian resources and facilities to aid the war effort and increase the survivability of its forces so that they live to fight another day.
- 4-8 The Russian forces, by contrast, are there illegally to begin with. Does Russia benefit from the principle of military necessity too? * I would argue it should not * Because it is waging an illegal war of aggression. As such, not a single Russian shell is fired legally.
- 5-8 Ukraine, by contrast, should be given significant leeway through the principle of necessity, because it starts from a position of lawful self-defence, entirely on its own territory, and bearing in mind unfavourable military odds and very narrow sets of options.
- 6-8 Considering the empirical cases observed by AI, I propose that the correct legal commentary should be this: Russian forces need to stop firing. Completely. And leave. Ukrainians have the right to use any and all buildings and facilities on their territory. Full stop.
- 7-8 I propose that legal scholars adopt my proposal, based on a reasonable attitude regarding the following issues: A. The pattern of *fully* separating jus in bello from jus ad bellum considerations is absurd and unjust. When there’s a clear aggressor, adjustments must be made.
- 8-8 B. When acting in self-defence on its own territory, a defending state benefits from a margin of appreciation in line with the IHL principle of necessity, whereas the foreign aggressor state does not benefit from that principle at all.
The second is from Andreas Umland:
The human rights NGO has neither the professional competence nor the public authority to assess the military necessity of, or putative alternatives to, an occasional stationing of Ukrainian troops in residential areas or near other civilian facilities. /2
— Andreas Umland (@UmlandAndreas) August 5, 2022
- Even more worrisome about the foray of the reputed NGO into military affairs is an absence of consideration of possible human rights repercussions of the publicly suggested more cautious tactical behavior of the Ukrainian armed forces. /3
- Is the suggested larger distance of Ukrainian armed forces from Ukrainian civilians indeed always and clearly in the interests of these civilians? What can be various possible net results of such more cautious military behavior in terms of protecting human rights in Ukraine? /4
The remarks of@amnestycan (b) imply a more fundamental critique of the Ukrainian state’s behavior that is about not only tactical but also ethical issues. It could mean that the Ukrainian army does not care about Ukrainian civilians, or even uses them as human shields. /5 One simply wonders why an international human rights organization would publicly criticize a certain country’s army’s way of desperate resistance against a massive armed attack on this country – especially so as the attacker’s human rights reputation is not entirely spotless. /7 Shouldn’t one assume that a defending army will by itself try to minimize the effects of its armed resistance against aggression, on civilian citizens and infrastructure? Do Ukraine’s generals and officers need a foreign NGO to alert them to possible risks of their decisions? /8 As@Amnestyhas decided to go public with its fundamental critique of Ukraine’s army, it appears that the Ukrainian military leadership cannot be trusted to actually defend the life and interests of Ukraine’s citizens. Doesn’t such an assumption about Ukraine sound familiar? /9 The claim that the Ukrainian state does not care about the fundamental needs of its citizens is well-known, in Russia and Ukraine. It is at the core of Moscow’s apology for the entire war and has been a constant theme in the Kremlin’s propaganda for more than eight years. /10 The@amnestyreport has immediately become recognized, by both Russians and Ukrainians, as feeding into Moscow’s official justification for its armed invasion of Ukraine since 2014. Didn’t Russia always say that it has a “responsibility to protect” Russian speakers from Kyiv? /11 The explicit contents of, and implied conclusions from,@amnesty‘s public critique of Ukraine’s armed forces will not lead to better protection of human rights in Ukraine. They will instead support the Kremlin’s narrative of the sources and nature of the entire conflict. /12 The military incompetence of@amnesty‘s official comment on Ukraine’s conduct of its defensive war against Russia’s annihilation war is excusable. However, the political insensitivity of such an inapt coming out of the reputed human rights organization is rather regrettable. /END
Finally, here is Boyd van Dijk’s analysis. Van Dijk is the McKenzie Fellow at the Melbourne School at Law in Australia:
The @amnesty report notes that Ukrainian forces are putting civilians in harm's way by operating in populated residential areas, including hospitals. But it is getting, understandably a lot of flag and pushback from critics – and even from mainstream IHL lawyers.
— Boyd van Dijk (@boyd_vandijk) August 5, 2022
- Critics are rightly wondering why Amnesty hasn’t provided satellite imagery or other concrete evidence supporting its (thin) claims.
- The Ukrainians are fighting an asymmetrical war against Russian aggression and acts of genocide, so it should not be surprising that their forces are operating in cities where they can fight the invader – like so many other victims of aggression/genocide have done before.
But the most important critique thrown at@amnestyis that the Ukrainians are fighting a just war against illegal aggression and alien occupation, and that it would be unfair to call out their relatively marginal IHL violations compared to grave breaches by Russian aggressor. This point seems crucial, and it connects with a much longer and broader debate within IHL – and (revisionist) just war theory – about the distinction between jus ad bellum (the rules for going to war) and jus in bello (rules governing warfare). The question whether victims of aggression and/or genocide (often fighting an asymmetrical war) should have to follow strictly IHL is a contested one, also during the making of the 1949 Geneva Conventions, the most important rules for warfare ever formulated. In the late 1940s, especially Jewish survivors and socialist drafters of the GCs fought against belligerent equality, the idea that IHL applies to all parties equally even if they’re fighting against aggression/genocide (the same principle that dictates @amnesty thinking). Breaching this principle would allow civilians/soldiers acting against aggression and/or genocide to lawfully take up arms in occupied territory, and to violate IHL if necessary to defend their right to life – see the Ukrainians today. This is what the Israeli delegation said during the negotiations in Geneva in the summer of 1949. Most interestingly, the proposal was supported by the Soviet Union as well as a French-Jewish drafter, even though France was simultaneously fighting against Ho Chi Minh’s guerrillas in Southeast Asia. Indeed, the Soviet Union (i.e. the Rus Fed’s predecessor) remained an active proponent of the idea of giving more extensive protections to irregulars who were fighting for a so-called ‘just cause’ – both in the late 1940s and in the 1970s, when the Conventions were last updated. As Jessica Whyte has shown previously, the Soviets used the language of self-determination and anti-fascism to extend privileged belligerent status to those struggling against alien occupation and racist rule. https://muse.jhu.edu/article/714131 The Soviets worked actively together with Third World delegations using the language of just war to elevate the status of national liberation movements and denounce wars of imperialist aggression – whether being in Southern Africa, Vietnam, or Ukraine today. But, as I’m researching in my new project, those same proposals created sign debates within socialist states and national liberation movements about the ethics of guerrilla warfare, just as Ukrainians are discussing the ethics of using heavy artillery in their own neighborhoods. The ANC in S-Africa demanded privileged belligerent status, but it also had extensive internal debates on the ethics of violence, in the 1960s and after 1976, when it opted for more indiscriminate violence while adhering to IHL atst (see Tambo in Geneva). The point being here is that it would be better both analytically as well as normatively to embrace the richness of IHL history, rather than framing it as a strict codebook with severe limitations for those fighting against aggression and/or genocide, as the @amnesty report does. We should never forget the eth implications of warfare for civilians, but that equally applies to the lesson that IHL was originally designed to empower states – and esp Great Powers, not to amplify the position of those fighting against injustice.for more info on the making of the 1949 Geneva Conventions, see my latest book<
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
Here’s some more pictures of Patron visiting the children’s hospital back in July:
Patron the dog visited the children who are being treated at the children's hospital Ohmatdyt.
Small patients were also preparing for the meeting and happily greeted the rescuers and Patron with bright drawings. 🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/25iX8W1uyK
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) July 9, 2022
And here’s a new video from Patron’s official TikTok account:
@patron__dsns Вже зацінили нову пісню про мене? Мені таак сподобалась! #песпатрон #патрондснс #славаукраїні
The caption translates as:
Have you already rated the new song about me? I liked it so much! #pespatron #patrondsns #slavaukraine
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