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Balloon Juice

Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Historically it is a little unusual for the president to be an incoherent babbling moron.

Deploy the moving finger of emphasisity!

They traffic in fear. it is their only currency. if we are fearful, they are winning.

All your base are belong to Tunch.

Let me eat cake. The rest of you could stand to lose some weight, frankly.

It’s the corruption, stupid.

Not all heroes wear capes.

Fuck these fucking interesting times.

They fucked up the fucking up of the fuckup!

Yes we did.

Too inconsequential to be sued

‘Forty-two’ said Deep Thought, with infinite majesty and calm.

The cruelty is the point; the law be damned.

We have all the best words.

Sitting here in limbo waiting for the dice to roll

Call the National Guard if your insurrection lasts more than four hours.

Let there be snark.

I’m only here for the duck photos.

I see no possible difficulties whatsoever with this fool-proof plan.

Peak wingnut was a lie.

I personally stopped the public option…

Mission Accomplished!

Today in our ongoing national embarrassment…

Technically true, but collectively nonsense

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Adam L Silverman

You are here: Home / Archives for Adam L Silverman

Adam L. Silverman is a consulting national security subject matter expert specializing in low intensity warfare (asymmetric, irregular, and unconventional warfare, revolution, insurgency, terrorism), civil affairs, psychological operations, and cultural considerations for strategy and policy.

He routinely provides operational support to a number of US Army, DOD, and other US Government elements. Dr. Silverman holds a doctorate in political science and criminology from the University of Florida, as well as masters' degrees in comparative religion and international security. Full professional bio available here: https://www.balloon-juice.com/adam-silverman-bio/

Adam Silverman has been a Balloon Juice writer since 2015.

Come Out Fighting! The 761st Tank Battalion’s Legacy Lives Through the Generations

by Adam L Silverman|  November 25, 202011:34 am| 95 Comments

This post is in: America, Biden-Harris 2020, Election 2020, Military, Open Threads, Silverman on Security

The 761st Tank Battalion's Legacy Lives Through the Generations

During his remarks yesterday, Antony Blinken, who is President-elect Biden’s designated nominee to be the next Secretary of State, took a few moments to share something very personal about his family and their relationship with America. Specifically he related how his stepfather survived the Holocaust by managing to escape his NAZI captors, flee, and hide within the tree line. When he heard a tank approach he looked and saw the markings were American, not NAZI and then broke cover and ran to the tank for help. Let’s listen to him tell it:

Sec. of State nominee Blinken on his late stepfather, a Holocaust survivor:

“He heard a deep rumbling … He ran to the tank. The hatch opened. An African American GI looked down at him. He got down on his knees and said the only 3 words he knew in English … God bless America" pic.twitter.com/O5Sj95AH62

— NBC News (@NBCNews) November 24, 2020

Unless something really strange was going on with personnel assignments, that tank and that African American tanker were part of the 761st Tank Battalion, known as The Black Panthers. The National World War II Museum provides us with a summary of their history:

The 761st Tank Battalion’s motto was “Come Out Fighting.” And that it did, from its first engagement at the little Belgian town of Morville-les-Vic in November 1944, and through heavy combat right through to the end of the war. But the 761st’s fight was not just against the Germans. As a segregated African American unit, it took part in the struggle for racial equality—a struggle in which the men of the 761st—the so-called “Black Panthers,”—would engage for the rest of their lives.

Brought into existence on April 1, 1942, at Camp Claiborne, Louisiana, the 761st Tank Battalion trained amid the restrictions and racism of the Jim Crow South. First Lieutenant Jack Roosevelt Robinson of the 761st, an athlete who would become one of the greatest baseball players of all time, lost his chance to see combat when he refused to move to the back of a segregated military bus during an incident at Fort Hood, Texas in July 1944. The 761st battalion’s commander, Lt. Col. Paul L. Bates, refused to prosecute Robinson, but his superiors got around that by transferring the lieutenant to another unit, where he was court-martialed. Robinson was later acquitted, but too late to rejoin the Black Panthers.

The 761st arrived in France on October 10, 1944, coming ashore at Omaha Beach and moving into Belgium at the beginning of November. General George S. Patton famously gave the Black Panthers a pep talk, saying in part: “Men, you’re the first Negro tankers to ever fight in the American Army. I would never have asked for you if you weren’t good. I have nothing but the best in my Army. I don’t care what color you are as long as you go up there and kill those Kraut sonsofbitches. Everyone has their eyes on you and is expecting great things from you. Most of all your race is looking forward to your success. Don’t let them down and damn you, don’t let me down!” Privately, however, Patton harbored the same doubts that many white officers had about black soldiers, and he was reluctant to commit them to combat.

On November 7, 1944, the Black Panthers finally got their chance as they attacked the German-held town of Morville-les-Vic in support of the 26th Infantry Division. Bates, wounded the night before the engagement, was not present; nor were many of his white senior officers. Instead, the first thrust into the town was commanded by African American Capt. John D. Long of B Company, who followed behind the lead Sherman tank commanded by Sgt. Roy King. “I am sure my men thought I was a bastard and hated my guts but they followed me,” later recalled Long, a no-nonsense officer who hailed from Detroit. “They were a well-greased fighting machine.”

Right inside the town, King’s lead tank was knocked out by a German panzerfaust. Two of King’s crew were wounded; their comrades dragged them to safety behind the tank and then went on to kill the soldier with the panzerfaust and also the crew of a German anti-tank gun. King ran to the aid of a white infantryman and was wounded in the process but refused evacuation; he would be killed in action 12 days later. At the end of the battle in Morville-les-Vic, a German officer would tell Long that the conduct of King and his crew “was only equaled by that of a Russian tank crew under similar circumstances.”

The Black Panthers captured Morville-les-Vic on November 7. Three days later, as the advance continued, Sgt. Warren Crecy’s Sherman was knocked out by a German anti-tank gun. Crecy jumped out, took charge of a machine gun on a nearby American halftrack, and used it to wipe out the enemy gun crew. On the following day, leading another tank, Crecy again dismounted under fire when his vehicle became stuck in the mud and worked to extricate it. While he was doing so, he saw an enemy machine gun take some of the 26th Division infantry under fire. Without hesitation, Crecy climbed up to his turret machine gun and used it to suppress the enemy. He would use the same gun again many times that same day—exposing himself to enemy fire and knocking out German machine gun nests and an anti-tank gun. He too would receive a Silver Star for gallantry in action.

Capt. Long proudly summed up his pride for the Black Panthers and their conduct. “Not for God and country but for me and my people,” he said. “This was my motivation pure and simple when I entered the army. I swore to myself there would never be a headline saying my men and I chickened. A soldier, in time of war, is supposed to accept the idea of dying. That’s what he’s there for; live with it and forget it. I expected to get killed, but whatever happened I was determined to die an officer and a gentleman. . . . The town of Morville-les-Vic was supposed to be a snap but it was an inferno; my men were tigers, they fought like seasoned veterans. We got our lumps but we took that f***ing town.”

Here’s a documentary on the 761st:

On 10 APR 1978, President Jimmy Carter* awarded the 761st Tank Battalion the Presidential Unit Citation for their extraordinary heroism in World War II.

For those interested, Kareem Abdul Jabbar has written an excellent history of the 761st.

I want to contrast the effect that Blinken’s family history in coming to America has had on him and his approach to public service and the similar history of Jared Kushner. Kushner’s grandmother, Rae, and her family escaped the Novogrudok ghetto and fled to the forest where they were eventually taken in by the Bielski brothers who ran one of the most successful partisan groups of World War II. It was during her time with the Bielski Partisans that she reconnected with her future husband with whom she would eventually immigrate to the US after the end of World War II. I find it exceedingly interesting that four years into the Trump administration and six years since the start of the Trump campaign, never once has Jared Kushner given the types of remarks that Antony Blinken gave today. I have no idea, nor do I actually care, how devout Blinken may or may not be in his Judaism. But I do know that for all of Jared Kushner’s often remarked about adherence to modern orthodox Judaism, he seems to be unable to comprehend the real gift he inherited from his grandparents, which is the same gift that Blinken inherited from his parents.

That gift is the promise of America. A gift that Trump, Jared, Stephen Miller, Steve Bannon, and the rest of the neo-nationalists and white supremacists and nativists and xenophobes that Trump and Miller have salted away throughout the executive branch do not understand. And they don’t understand it because, like the wicked son, they are inherently incapable of understanding it. That promise is what we see in asylum seekers and refugees. No one leaves everything behind, grabs their children, and walks hundreds and thousands of miles over land or traverses the same distances on the ocean, just because they want a chance to earn a few more dollars. The people that take these most desperate of measures, do so because as dangerous as it is, it is less dangerous than staying where they are. And they do so with only these thoughts in mind: at the end of the journey is safety, at the end of the journey is hope, at the end of the journey is the United States!

It is also the gift – the promise – that the African American Soldiers of the 761st Tank Battalion recognized. That America, the same America that denied them their equal rights as citizens, that denied them their equal humanity as people, that required them to serve in segregated units if they chose to serve, could be much, much, much more than that crimped, small minded, narrow, and shallow understanding of America that allowed the Jim Crow system to thrive. And the historical irony in the 761st fighting to end the NAZI’s racist, fascist regime of terror and genocide is that the NAZI system was modeled on the Jim Crow system put in place to overthrow reconstruction and politically, socially, religiously, economically, and culturally enshrine white supremacy as the de facto law of the land in the former Confederate states and, through terror and intimidation, spread it as far outside of the former Confederacy as possible.

Blinken and President-elect Biden and the surviving veterans of the 761st Tanker Battalion understand this, Kushner and Trump do not.

Open thread.

* Full disclosure: I interned at the Carter Presidential Center between my junior and senior years at Emory.

Come Out Fighting! The 761st Tank Battalion’s Legacy Lives Through the GenerationsPost + Comments (95)

Florida Man Does Something Good!

by Adam L Silverman|  November 23, 202010:08 pm| 150 Comments

This post is in: Faunasphere, Lizard Blogging, Nature, Nature & Respite, Open Threads, Something Good Open Thread

saved the puppy from getting eaten by an alligator and never dropped his cigar, a true legend pic.twitter.com/ryRSfZqOsy

— juan vidal (@itsjuanlove) November 22, 2020

Florida Man saves his puppy from a gator!

Don’t even think about messing with this Florida man’s puppy.

Richard Wilbanks, 74, acted swiftly when his 3-month-old pup Gunner was snatched by an alligator in the backyard pond of his home in Estero, near South Florida’s Gulf Coast.

In a stunning video, Wilbanks wrestles the young gator in waist-deep water, bringing it above the surface and prying open its jaws to release the King Charles Cavalier spaniel.

“We were just out walking by the pond,” Wilbanks told CNN, “and it came out of the water like a missile. I never thought an alligator could be that fast. It was so quick.”

Acting on adrenaline or instinct, Wilbanks said he just “automatically jumped into the water.”

He said he sustained some injuries to his hands and went to the doctor for a tetanus shot to be safe.

Gunner had one small puncture wound to his belly, but is doing fine after a trip to the vet, Wilbanks said.

Wilbanks told WINK News that he understands this is the alligator’s home and does not want it removed from the pond. He urged other pet owners to keep their animals away from the water’s edge.

The dramatic encounter was caught on camera thanks to a partnership between the Florida Wildlife Federation and the fSTOP Foundation as part of a campaign called “Sharing the Landscape.” Its mission is to help the community understand and appreciate the wildlife they live near and help reduce conflicts.

Meredith Budd, the regional policy director of the Florida Wildlife Federation, said the cameras typically capture videos of deer or bobcats. It’s not often they catch something like what Wilbanks and Gunner went through.

“We live on a shared landscape,” Budd said. “We don’t just want to tolerate wildlife, but, rather, we want to thrive with wildlife on a shared landscape.”

Louise Wilbanks, Richard’s wife, told WINK the incident has given them a new appreciation for the wildlife near their homes.

“We do need to be aware they are wild animals. They’re not here for our benefit. We’re very lucky to share this space with them,” she said.

Here’s a bit more video with some reporting:

As a native Floridian who grew up on a salt water canal that fed into Tampa Bay, but has also lived in areas of the state with lakes, retention ponds, and cypress swamp and scrub just outside my doors – front and back – one of the things you learn is that gators can be anywhere. And that they’re fast, very, very fast. When I’m out with the dogs near water, even if it is just low lying scrub that has filled up because of rain to form a pond, I keep eyes on the water and my ears focused on any movement in it and along its edges. Day or night!

And Gunner is a very good and very lucky boy!

Open thread!

 

Florida Man Does Something Good!Post + Comments (150)

Veteran’s Day 2020: A Long Overdue Honor

by Adam L Silverman|  November 11, 20208:18 pm| 96 Comments

This post is in: America, Military, Open Threads, Silverman on Security, War

Yesterday the US Senate passed legislation providing a statutory exemption to the time limit for awarding the Medal of Honor. This exemption is for one very specific soldier: Sergeant 1st Class (SFC) Alwyn Cashe.

On #VeteransDay2020 I have the honor of sharing the story of Sgt. Alwyn Cashe. He may become the first Black man to receive the Medal of Honor for his heroism in the Iraq and Afghanistan wars. @TODAYshow https://t.co/VnjbQ90dFj

— Craig Melvin (@craigmelvin) November 11, 2020

From The Washington Post:

The Senate passed legislation on Tuesday that clears the way for President Trump to award the nation’s highest award for valor in combat to Army Sgt. 1st Class Alwyn Cashe, who repeatedly entered a burning vehicle in Iraq to save six fellow soldiers and an interpreter from harm and died a few weeks later.

The legislation, passed by unanimous consent, waives the legal requirement that the Medal of Honor be awarded within five years of a service member’s acts of valor. Cashe has long been considered one of the war’s great American heroes and would be the first African American to receive the award for actions in Iraq or Afghanistan. Former defense secretary Mark T. Esper supported the move in a letter to Congress in August after years of deliberations within the Army.

The Senate bill was introduced on a bipartisan basis following the approval of similar legislation in the House last week. In both cases, lawmakers said they wanted to move quickly.

The approval of the Cashe legislation in both chambers leaves Trump’s approval as the only hurdle to Cashe receiving the award. The president has not commented on the case, but Cashe is often cited within conservative circles as worthy of the award. A senior White House official, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss the open case, said before the legislation’s passage in the Senate that Trump would be supportive.

Cashe, 35, of Oviedo, Fla., was deployed to Samarra, Iraq, with the 3rd Infantry Division when the armored Bradley Fighting Vehicle he was in rolled over an improvised explosive device on Oct. 17, 2005. He was slightly injured by the explosion and drenched fuel, and realized the vehicle’s fuel cell had erupted and the vehicle had burst into flames.

Cashe made numerous trips into the vehicle to recover fellow soldiers, suffering burns in the process. He died about three weeks later on Nov. 5 at Brooke Army Medical Center in San Antonio, which is known for its unit treating burns suffered in combat.

Cashe was initially approved for the Silver Star, the nation’s third-highest award for valor in combat. His commanding officer, then-Lt. Col. Gary Brito, later said that he did not initially have a full understanding for what Cashe did and has sought an upgrade for years. Brito is now a three-star general and the Army’s deputy chief of staff for personnel.

“Without regard for his personal safety, Sergeant First Class Cashe rushed to the back of the vehicle, reaching into the hot flames and started pulling out his soldiers,” the Silver Star citation said. “The flames gripped his fuel soaked uniform. Flames quickly spread all over his body.”

Cashe continued to assist others, even after he was on fire, the citation said. He suffered burns over 72 percent of his body.

Cashe’s sister, Kasinal Cashe White, said in phone conference with reporters recently that she did not believe discrimination had a role in the Army’s failure to award the Medal of Honor sooner. She cited a conversation that she had with Brito, who also is Black, in 2007.

Brito, she said, told her that no one in the 3rd Infantry Division had received anything higher than the Silver Star and that he knew from the information he had at the time that Cashe merited one.

“What I feel is that the information did not get back in time,” she said.

White added that she “won’t allow anybody to make it a race thing.”

“He did what he did not because he was Black, but because he was a soldier and because he loved his men,” she said. “And I believe they loved him in return.”

I expect that if the President, in a fit of pique over how the election went, refuses to sign it, it’ll be quickly resubmitted in the next Congress and President-elect Biden will sign it and then make the award.

I did not know SFC Cashe as I didn’t go to work for the Army until 2007. However, I do have a connection to him and know of his heroism. When I deployed to Iraq in 2008 with the 2nd Brigade Combat Team/1st Armored Division (2BCT/1AD), the Iron Brigade, our operating environment (OE) included one (command) forward operating base (FOB), four combat outposts (COP), and a number of patrol bases (PB). Our armor battalion, 1st Battalion/35th Armor Regiment (Task Force Iron Knights) was located just outside of Jisr Diyala on a combat outpost that was divided into a north and south base. This base’s name is COP Cashe; specifically COP Cashe North and COP Cashe South. I spent a lot of time during my deployment working with the 1/35 Armor Soldiers, as well as their Civil Affairs Team-Alpha (CAT-A), and their National Police Training Team (NPiTT) and, as a result, spent a good amount of time living and working off of COP Cashe South. There was a large portrait of SFC Cashe in the entryway to the tactical operations center (TOC) and a description of his heroism hung beside it.

This award is well deserved and too long overdue. And it is fitting that the Senate bestirred itself to actually act on this in advance of Veterans Day.

And, so that I don’t get yelled at in the comments, here’s some appropriate Veterans Day music.

Open thread!

Veteran’s Day 2020: A Long Overdue HonorPost + Comments (96)

Smells Like Freedom

by Adam L Silverman|  November 7, 20208:55 pm| 126 Comments

This post is in: America, Biden-Harris 2020, Domestic Politics, Election 2020, Music, Open Threads, Politics, Silverman on Security

Smells Like Freedom

Now that President-elect Biden and Vice President-elect Harris have addressed the Nation, I just thought I’d put this up to pass the time. I’ve written here on a few occasions that My Country Tis of Thee is my favorite patriotic song. Given what we’ve all been through since June 2015, I think this version – the abolitionist version – is appropriate.

Open thread!

PS: I’ll be back tomorrow to harsh everyone’s mellow and explain why the next 74 days will be the most dangerous days the US has ever faced. So you all have something to look forward to!

Smells Like FreedomPost + Comments (126)

Visual Communication: The Pennsylvania Attorney General Brings His A Game

by Adam L Silverman|  November 6, 202010:06 pm| 147 Comments

This post is in: America, Domestic Politics, Election 2020, Information Warfare, Open Threads, Politics, Silverman on Security

While we wait for Vice President and President-Elect presumptive Biden and Senator and Vice President-elect presumptive Harris to begin their event, I wanted to point out Pennsylvania Attorney General Josh Shapiro’s absolutely excellent visual communication capabilities. Take a look at the picture below and notice what is on the shelf behind and a little bit above his left shoulder:

Visual Communication: The Pennsylvania Attorney General Brings His A Game

In the center, in front of the clock is a USPS mail truck. To the right of the truck is Count Von Count from Sesame Street. To the truck’s left, at the extreme left of the shelf, is Sam the Eagle at the presidential podium from The Muppet Show. And between Sam the Eagle and the USPS mail truck, to the left of the clock and above everything else is a Notorious RBG action figure.

Regardless of what AG Shapiro was saying, what he’s communicating here is that under his watch Pennsylvania will count all the mail in ballots in the 2020 election and for president under the watchful eye of the late Associate Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg. This is excellent visual communication!

And here’s the video of the media hit. Wait for it… Wait for it…

this teen wins election night 4.0 pic.twitter.com/wzzoyXwMU0

— Justin Sink (@justinsink) November 7, 2020

Well played young Shapiro, well played!

Open thread!

Visual Communication: The Pennsylvania Attorney General Brings His A GamePost + Comments (147)

Marking Beliefs To Market: What I and Everyone Else Missed Or Ignored

by Adam L Silverman|  November 5, 20209:24 pm| 436 Comments

This post is in: America, Domestic Politics, Election 2020, Information Warfare, Open Threads, Politics, Silverman on Security

There’s a lot of lamentation going on about how Biden had no coattails. That all the talk of progressive priorities is what caused the Democrats to loose seats in the House and prevented them from gaining/flipping seats in the Senate. This was, apparently, part of some screaming at today’s Democratic House caucus Zoom call and some tweets by AOC and the lying shitbird Waleed Shahid. And, of course, how the pollsters all screwed up once again. While I’ve got a couple of specific points on the pollsters, which I’ll save for the end, here’s what I think got missed and ignored. And it got missed and ignored not just by the pollsters, but also by the modelers: Cook, Sabato, etc.

On Sunday night I wrote this:

The political science PhD part of me, in line with Charlie Cook’s projections, looks at the data and information we have and recognizes the high probability that VP Biden wins without much difficult and the Democrats are able to achieve a 52 seat Senate majority. The low intensity warfare professional in me looks at what’s going on and is exceedingly concerned regardless of what happens on Tuesday.

Let’s leave low intensity warfare professional me out of this, as he’s on solid ground, but I clearly got it wrong. And I got it wrong because Cook got it wrong. And Cook got it wrong because the data he had was wrong. And the data he had was wrong because the assumptions underlying the collection of the data were wrong based on a misreading of what happened in 2018.

What everyone missed is that in 2018 if you were pissed at Trump, uncomfortable with Trump, disliked Trump, were concerned about what Trump was doing and you wanted to cast a protest vote against Trump you could only do so by voting for Democrats and against Republicans. And that’s what caused the 2018 blue wave for the Democrats in the House races. And it’s why it didn’t reappear this time.

It didn’t reappear this time because Trump was on the ballot. So if you are pissed at Trump, uncomfortable with Trump, dislike Trump, are concerned about what Trump is doing and wanted to cast a protest vote against Trump you actually could directly vote against Trump and then go and vote how you normally would, how you’re comfortable voting, which was for all the other Republicans just like you always do because you’re a Republican. That’s your team. That’s your tribe. That’s how you identify. And that’s the lens you understand politics and America through. Yes, this means that all these people angry with Trump who voted against him, but voted for all the other Republicans are completely oblivious to the fact that all of those folks enabled Trump, went along with Trump, embraced Trump, refused to stand up to Trump, refused to cross Trump, and are, therefore, just as bad as Trump. They may in fact be worse because they’re not Trump and therefore should both know and be better.

Congressman Max Rose should never have even gotten close to being elected to Congress from his district in Staten Island. That’s not because Max Rose is a bad member of Congress or a sellout or anything else. It is simply that Max Rose, because he’s a Democrat and because he’s Jewish, is a TERRIBLE fit for that district. It shouldn’t be surprising that Staten Islanders, who would normally only vote for a Republican, could actually protest vote against Trump in 2020 by actually voting against Trump in 2020. And that they were then perfectly willing to go back to voting for the Republican running to unseat Rose. Which is what they did.

What the pollsters missed, what the modelers like Cooke missed, and what, as a result, allowed us all to miss because we were working off of their assumptions and data and models is that there does not appear to have been a major shift among suburban white women, and some suburban white men, from the Republicans to the Democrats because of Trump. What there appears to be is that suburban white women and some suburban white men don’t like Trump and will vote against him if he’s on the ballot. When he’s not, they will vote against Republicans as a protest because they can’t directly vote against him.

This is not a fully original theory. My thinking was prompted by this tweet from Dave Wasserman:

A key factor in House Rs' ability to easily hold onto districts that Trump likely lost last night: in 2018, the only way for suburbanites to take out anger at Trump was down-ballot; this year, they could vote against Trump and still vote for down-ballot Rs they like.

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 4, 2020

I think there is empirical goodness here that we need to keep in mind going forward.

I said up top that I wanted to make a specific point about the pollsters. I read today, actually reread because I saw someone flag a 2012 article on election technology, polling disparities, and election rigging, and this stood out at me:

The statistically anomalous shifting of votes to the conservative right has become so pervasive in post-HAVA America that it now has a name of its own. Experts call it the “red shift.”

The Election Defense Alliance (EDA) is a nonprofit organization specializing in election forensics—a kind of dusting for the fingerprints of electronic theft. It is joined in this work by a coalition of independent statisticians, who have compared decades of computer-vote results to exit polls, tracking polls, and hand counts. Their findings show that when disparities occur, they benefit Republicans and right-wing issues far beyond the bounds of probability. “We approach electoral integrity with a nonpartisan goal of transparency,” says EDA executive director Jonathan Simon. “But there is nothing nonpartisan about the patterns we keep finding.” Simon’s verdict is confirmed by David Moore, a former vice president and managing editor of Gallup: “What the exit polls have consistently shown is stronger Democratic support than the election results.”

Wouldn’t American voters eventually note the constant disparity between poll numbers and election outcomes, and cry foul? They might—except that polling numbers, too, are being quietly shifted. Exit-poll data is provided by the National Election Pool, a corporate-media consortium consisting of the three major television networks plus CNN, Fox News, and the Associated Press. The NEP relies in turn on two companies, Edison Research and Mitofsky International, to conduct and analyze the actual polling. However, few Americans realize that the final exit polls on Election Day are adjusted by the pollsters—in other words, weighted according to the computerized-voting-machine totals.

When challenged on these disparities, pollsters often point to methodological flaws. Within days of the 2004 election, Warren Mitofsky (who invented exit polls in 1967) appeared on television to unveil what became known as the “reluctant Bush responder” theory: “We suspect that the main reason was that the Kerry voters were more anxious to participate in our exit polls than the Bush voters.” But some analysts and pollsters insist this theory is entirely unproven. “I don’t think the pollsters have really made a convincing case that it’s solely methodological,” Moore told me.

In Moore’s opinion, the NEP could resolve the whole issue by making raw, unadjusted, precinct-level data available to the public. “Our great, free, and open media are concealing data so that it cannot be analyzed,” Moore charges. Their argument that such data is proprietary and would allow analysts to deduce which votes were cast by specific individuals is, Moore insists, “specious at best.” He adds: “They have a communal responsibility to clarify whether there is a vote miscount going on. But so far there’s been no pressure on them to do so.”

Some argue that the Democratic victories in 2006 and 2008 disprove the existence of the red shift. However, this may be a misinterpretation of complex political upheavals that occurred in each of those election years.

While Democrats won a majority in the House of Representatives in 2006, and the White House in 2008, postelection analyses did in fact suggest extensive red-shift rigging. But in both election cycles, these efforts simply failed to overcome eleventh-hour events so negative that they drastically undercut the projected wins for the G.O.P.

In 2006, it was the exposure of Republican representative Mark Foley’s sexual advances toward male congressional pages, and the long-standing cover-up of his behavior by G.O.P. leadership. The scandal swirling around the outwardly homophobic Foley broke in a very ugly and public way, engulfing the entire party and causing a free fall in its polling numbers. The Democratic margin in the Cook Generic Congressional Ballot poll, which had been at 9 percent in early October, jumped to 26 percent by the week of the election.

The collapse of Lehman Brothers months before the 2008 elections had a similar effect on John McCain’s numbers. Pre-election polls showed that the American public blamed the Republicans for the imploding financial markets. “These political sea changes swamped a red shift that turned out to be under-calibrated,” argues Jonathan Simon, who speculates that Barack Obama actually won by a historic landslide, driven by an overwhelming backlash against the policies of the Bush Administration.

There’s a lot more important, solid, and infuriating information at the link! I think the take away is that there has not just been a problem with the professional polling, both in the run up to elections and the exit polling, that is reported in the news media and that is being relied on by everyone to understand what the dynamics are and what is going on, but that the problem is because the pollsters are cooking their own data so it doesn’t make it look like their data is wrong. No one trying to do good faith modeling or projections can do so if the data they are getting is itself misinformation.

A penultimate point about how the reporting of the results is being done. The national news media, especially the campaigning and political reporters have defaulted to their traditional and comfortable framing. If PA, WI, MI, and GA had been allowed to count mail in and early vote ballots like Florida or Ohio are, then by 1 AM at the latest on Wednesday morning we’d be reading about Biden’s historic win, with more of the popular vote than even Obama, that restored the blue wall in the midwest, and that GA had turned purple or was on the cusp of it. But because it’s dragged out, even the best reporting teams that were warning everyone not to be concerned if we didn’t know anything until Thursday or Friday, have now all reverted to horse race reporting, the Democrats are in disarray, why couldn’t Biden do better framing. In reality, Biden did amazing, but the narrative must be observed!!!

The final point I’ll make is that the Senate is still in play, even if the path for Democrats is narrow. Despite everyone being loath to call the Arizona race for Mark Kelly, the margin is too great for McSally to overtake and defeat him. This leaves four Senate seats outstanding: Alaska, both the Georgia seats, and North Carolina. Alaska, even if we didn’t have acknowledged and recognized issues with polling, is notoriously hard to poll. Dr. Gross does have a path to flip that seat, but I have no idea how probable that might be and I don’t think anyone else being honest does. While I’d like to see the Democrats take both the Georgia seats, I think the likelihood is that Warnock defeats Loeffler and Perdue narrowly hangs on, but Ossoff has run better than I think anyone expected, so the seat is in play. As for North Carolina, the state stopped reporting updates because of the Federal court rulings and agreements about how to handle the ballots that are allowed to come in after election day. It is possible that Tillis’s lead has grown, that it has eroded, or that nothing has really changed at all. But we won’t know until next week. The goal for the Democrats is now a 50-50 Senate where they get the majority because a Vice President Harris breaks all the ties. But it is also probable that McConnell maintains a 51 or 52 seat majority. If that happens, expect Schumer to offer Murkowski, Romney, and even Collins whatever they want to not go along with McConnell’s obstructionism.

Open thread!

PS: I told you all for over two months that unless Biden was up by at least 6, if not 10 points in the final Florida polling he was going to lose Florida by 1 to 2 points because there’s something funky going on with the polling in Florida that I’ve noticed as a pattern over the years. I am sorry to write that my concerns were correct.

Marking Beliefs To Market: What I and Everyone Else Missed Or IgnoredPost + Comments (436)

Everyone Just Calm The Fuck Down! The NC Numbers Were Misreported

by Adam L Silverman|  November 3, 202010:39 pm| 281 Comments

This post is in: Election 2020, Open Threads, Silverman on Security

Just simmer down and let them actually count the votes. Remember the news media are projecting winners, not actually counting ballots.

That's worth a net-30k votes for Biden, which would not be enough to get him into the lead. But it does help him a bit. We're looking for other errors

— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) November 4, 2020

If we add a net-40K to Biden, Trump would still be a heavy favorite but the needle would no longer give Trump >95% chance, because it does still believe there are late mail ballots left to count over the next few days–and we have no idea how many pic.twitter.com/zOwjOhYPCv

— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) November 4, 2020

This could be a bug on our end somewhere, but I don't see why it would be. I think it is a legitimate possibility that there are another 8k votes here

— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) November 4, 2020

Everyone Just Calm The Fuck Down! The NC Numbers Were MisreportedPost + Comments (281)

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