On Friday as part of a longer post on exactly what Muhammad bin Salman is trying to accomplish, I made the following point:
Lebanon: This is a mess. Hariri’s party and his family are treating this as a Saudi driven plot. They’ve actually accused the Saudis of kidnapping Harriri, holding him against his will, and forcing him to do this. Regardless, it only empowers Hezbullah in regard to Lebanon’s government. And Hezbullah, which is not exactly an ally of Hariri’s, is also now claiming he has been taken hostage by the Saudis. All Hariri’s resignation and flight to Saudi Arabia has done is create another new opportunity for Iran to expand its influence in Lebanon. Here too Muhammad bin Salman’s failure as a strategist is clearly evident. His actions have achieved the opposite effect from that he desired.
Today Prime Minister Hariri made a hostage video:
Anyone noticed the guy with the message? #Hariri was definitely terrified. pic.twitter.com/XvVV6DfpW2
— Mohammed Al-Buainain (@Buenen) November 12, 2017
The question people on social media are asking is who is the man standing way behind and to the left of Hariri’s interviewer. Standing where Hariri can clearly see him, but the camera wasn’t supposed to.
Sources close to Hariri say Saudi Arabia has concluded that the prime minister – a long-time Saudi ally and son of late Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, who was assassinated in 2005 – had to go because he was unwilling to confront Hezbollah.
Multiple Lebanese sources say Riyadh hopes to replace Saad Hariri with his older brother Bahaa as Lebanon’s top Sunni politician. Bahaa is believed to be in Saudi Arabia, and members of the Hariri family have been asked to travel there to pledge allegiance to him, but have refused, the sources say.
Family members, aides and politicians who have contacted Hariri in Riyadh say he is apprehensive and reluctant to say anything beyond “I am fine”. Asked if he is coming back, they say his normal answer is: “Inshallah” (God willing).
Hariri, who has dual citizenship in Lebanon and Saudi Arabia has a home in the latter. And his wife and children live there…
On Friday I also wrote that:
Muhammad bin Salman (MBS) has used the slogan anti-corruption to try to further solidify his position as Crown Prince. From his perspective he’s 32 and the Crown Prince. His father is 80 and in poor health. If he can solidify his position, then he can essentially rule Saudi for five or six decades. I think that this is what a good part of what we saw last week is about.
Reuters had now reported that:
Prince Mohammed decided to move on his family, the person familiar with events said, when he realized more relatives opposed him becoming king than he had thought.
“The signal was that anyone wavering in their support should watch out,” said the person familiar with the events. “The whole idea of the anti-corruption campaign was targeted towards the family. The rest is window dressing.”
It is always nice when further reporting confirms one’s analysis.
Open thread!
The Muhammad bin Salman Gambit Part II: Rafik Hariri Makes a Hostage VideoPost + Comments (75)