I’m going to Bigfoot Cole here a bit, but I think it’s sort of necessary.
First, despite what the self proclaimed progressive left on Twitter and other social media platforms assert, Ukraine actually has agency. Whatever does and does not happen in the next week or several weeks or months is not because Putin has no agency and is merely responding to the US, which is the only actor in the global system with agency.
Putin does in fact have agency and he has escalated himself into a corner because what he’s really afraid of is the fact that the Ukrainians do in fact have agency. Whether Ukraine eventually decides to apply to join the EU and NATO is not the US’s decision. It is not any of the EU or NATO members’ decisions either. It is most certainly NOT Putin’s decision. It is Ukraine’s and the Ukrainians’ decisions to make. This is what has Putin so rattled. That in poll after poll after poll, 60% or more of Ukrainians consistently indicate that they want to ultimately join the EU and NATO.
Dear international media, when covering ??, please remember, Ukrainians are not pawns in a geopolitical game. We are real people, 40 mln, with our agency, ideas and aspirations. Majority of us (~60%) want to join the EU&NATO. We are ready to resist Russiahttps://t.co/eUn7oJdvO4
— Olga Tokariuk (@olgatokariuk) January 23, 2022
Putin has agency here too and the question regarding it is he really going to do something this stupid just because he’s escalated himself into a position where he can either deescalate and lose (some) face or go all in and ultimately have to live with the negative consequences.
The US and our NATO and other EU, but non-NATO allies also have agency here as well. The question for us regards what point do we determine that should Putin decide to go all in on the stupid that we have to engage beyond military aide, humanitarian aide, military training, and economic sanctions.
Also, the suggestion that Ukraine pursue their own version Finlandization is naive, poorly informed, just plain stupid, and the premier of Finland itself has said it would be folly and has made it clear that if Putin chooses war, they will make a priority request to join NATO. Finlandization wasn’t something Finland actually pursued, it was forced on them by the Soviet Union.
Second, the signals coming back are not encouraging right now.
BREAKING: US officially announces departure of @USEmbassyKyiv employees. “On February 12, 2022, the Department of State ordered the departure of most U.S. direct hire employees from Embassy Kyiv due to the continued threat of Russian military action.” pic.twitter.com/bz575MsJRL
— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) February 12, 2022
US Embassy in Ukraine says work will continue. Just not in Kyiv. https://t.co/UwC1nkmQ2C
— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) February 12, 2022
Russia confirms diplomatic drawdown, saying that it is “optimizing its staff” at its government offices in Ukraine. Cites “possible provocations by the Kyiv regime and third countries.” Says embassy continues to fulfill “key functions.” https://t.co/o97wipa1gK
— Andrew Roth (@Andrew__Roth) February 12, 2022
These actions do not definitely mean that Putin has decided to reinvade/further invade Ukraine, but these are generally not positive indicators.
Third and finally, Christo Grozev, who is Bellingcat’s executive director, has tweeted this out:
Two independent sources claim US utilities companies are placed on high alert, following peaks of malware deployment at many of them in the last days. Expectation is for simultaneous muscle-flexing cyber attacks on US companies.
— Christo Grozev (@christogrozev) February 11, 2022
This does not surprise me at all. I’ve been stating in assessments on Putin’s activities going back to 2017 that if Putin were to reinvade/further invade Ukraine or move on the Baltics or on the Finns, Norwegians, and/or Swedes, that he would try to use his cyber warfare capabilities to sow as much chaos as he could in the US, in the EU, and in NATO to make it harder to respond by dividing the attention of our and our allies’ governments. Right now, a plurality within the GOP, the conservative movement, and the conservative news media, social media, and digital media spheres are opposed to the US intervening to help Ukraine and openly pro-Putin and Russia in regard to what Putin is doing. The only good news right now is that the Democrats control both chambers of Congress, which will prevent the MAGA/Trumpist/revanchist GOP members of both chambers from hamstringing President Biden should he decide we have to move beyond aide and sanctions in our response.
I would strongly recommend, that just to be prudent, everyone fill up their vehicles, make sure you have a week to ten days worth of non-perishable food and water including enough for your pets, and if possible you top up your prescription medications if you can just in case.
You may all feel free to call me paranoid, but if you were looking to make it hard for Canada to assist with NATO right now, what would be better than to create a crisis in Ottawa and other key cities and locations in Canada that overwhelm the ability of the police and the civilian authorities to deal with the situation and therefore require the Canadian military to respond. We know that there is a hard core group of hard right, authoritarian extremists using the Canadian protests as cover to try to challenge and bring down the Canadian government. We also know that they are being bolstered, funded, and supported in their efforts by Americans and other non-Canadians. And we know that they’re trying to recreate what they’re doing in Canada here in the US.
Ultimately the only person who knows what Putin is going to do is Putin. And I’m not sure he has yet decided which of the bad choices he’s left himself with he’s going to choose. All we, our allies and partners, and the Ukrainians can do is wait, watch, and prepare ourselves.
Open thread!