https://www.balloon-juice.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/balloon_juice_header_logo_grey.jpg00Betty Crackerhttps://www.balloon-juice.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/balloon_juice_header_logo_grey.jpgBetty Cracker2016-12-03 16:25:022016-12-03 16:25:02College Football Open Thread
https://www.balloon-juice.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/balloon_juice_header_logo_grey.jpg00Anne Lauriehttps://www.balloon-juice.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/balloon_juice_header_logo_grey.jpgAnne Laurie2016-12-03 14:52:552016-12-03 14:02:28Open Thread: Bull(shitter) in A China Foreign Policy Shoppe
Lake Evans, Victoria, Australia, by Peter Russell:
Castlerigg stone circle, Keswick, UK, by Nancy Koprowski:
If you want to participate, email me a link to a couple of your favorite pics on a photo site like Flickr (do not send the image itself please) and I will put them up in open threads. Send a short caption if you want and let me know how you want to be identified. If your computer cannot read our email links at top right, my email is (remove the zeroes): portus0jackson0ii at yahoo dot com. There was a good discussion about sharing photos anonymously in another photo thread.
Annie Leibovitz’s latest exhibition, “Women: New Portraits,” has been traveling the globe since it debuted in London early this year. But the latest iteration of the show, which opens in New York City on Friday, has a fresh tweak: A photo of Hillary Clinton hangs in the middle of the exhibit’s central wall of portraits.
“Secretary Clinton was not on this wall until this show,” Leibovitz said during a Tuesday preview of the exhibition co-hosted by famed feminist activist Gloria Steinem, who collaborated with Leibovitz on the project. “It’s the first time I folded her into the sea—into the ocean of women who mean something to us today.”
Leibovitz, who also included some of the photos she shot during the campaign in the show, noted that in the portrait of Clinton, there’s a tile visible on her desk. “I asked my retoucher, ‘Would you please sharpen that tile?’” It says never, never, never give up.”…
Steinem, who helped select some of these subjects, fielded a press question about how she feels about the future of women’s rights in the wake of Donald Trump’s election to the U.S. presidency.
Steinem attributed Trump’s win, in part, to backlash against the progress of women and minorities. “I think that what has been revealed to us is a truth that we must now deal with,” she said. “Never again is anyone going to say ‘post-feminist’ or ‘post-racist’ because we [now] understand that there is something like a third of the country that is still locked into these old hierarchies.”
The activist compared the current state of the U.S. to a survivor of domestic violence. “The moment just before escaping or just after escaping [from a violent household] is the most dangerous time,” she said. “I think we are at a time of maximum danger in this country and we need to look out for each other.”
However, for supporters of women’s and minority rights, there’s value in learning where the country truly stands and how much further it has to go. “Just as we would not tell anyone to go back into a violent household, we would not tell each other to go back,” said Steinem. “And even though it’s a time of danger maybe we are about to be free.”
https://www.balloon-juice.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/balloon_juice_header_logo_grey.jpg00Anne Lauriehttps://www.balloon-juice.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/balloon_juice_header_logo_grey.jpgAnne Laurie2016-12-03 05:11:482016-12-03 05:11:48Saturday Morning Open Thread: Strong At the Broken Places
https://www.balloon-juice.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/balloon_juice_header_logo_grey.jpg00Anne Lauriehttps://www.balloon-juice.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/balloon_juice_header_logo_grey.jpgAnne Laurie2016-12-02 22:35:132016-12-02 22:35:13Open Thread: Double Standards, The Media Village Idiots Haz Them
The best case scenario for the next four years is that world leaders just ignore Trump and act like he’s special and doesn’t really speak for the US:
President-elect Donald Trump spoke Friday with Taiwan’s president, a major departure from decades of U.S. policy in Asia and a breach of diplomatic protocol with ramifications for the incoming president’s relations with China.
The call is the first known contact between a U.S. president or president-elect with a Taiwanese leader since before the United States broke diplomatic relations with the island in 1979. China considers Taiwan a province, and news of the official outreach by Trump is likely to infuriate the regional military and economic power.
The exchange is one of a string of unorthodox conversations with foreign leaders that Trump has held since his election. It comes at a particularly tense time between China and Taiwan, which earlier this year elected a president, Tsai Ing-wen, who has refused to accept the notion of a unified China under Beijing’s rule. Her election angered Beijing to the point of cutting off all official communication with the island government.
Another conservative is calling “crony capitalism” on Donald Trump’s deal with Carrier, albeit an unexpected one — Sarah Palin.
In an op-ed for the website Young Conservatives, the former Alaska governor allowed that the details behind the manufacturer’s decision to keep some 1,000 jobs in Indiana at the president-elect’s behest, rather than move them to Mexico, are not yet clear. But touting the value of free markets, Palin signaled her disapproval if it was a case of “political intrusion using a stick or carrot to bribe or force one individual business to do what politicians insist.”
“When government steps in arbitrarily with individual subsidies, favoring one business over others, it sets inconsistent, unfair, illogical precedent,” she asserted.
And in an apparent jab at Trump, whom she famously endorsed in a rambling speech earlier this year, she asked: “Republicans oppose this, remember? Instead, we support competition on a level playing field, remember? Because we know special interest crony capitalism is one big fail.”
Actually, you don’t, because you have all sorts of favorites you like to prop up (heya corn producing states and fossil fuel companies, I’m looking at you), but she is right about this. It is crony capitalism, and not only that, it’s terribly done. The majority of the jobs are still leaving.
https://www.balloon-juice.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/balloon_juice_header_logo_grey.jpg00John Colehttps://www.balloon-juice.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/balloon_juice_header_logo_grey.jpgJohn Cole2016-12-02 20:24:012016-12-02 20:24:01We're All Going to Die
Several of you have asked in comments or by email if I’d write a little bit (a lot of bit?) about security. Specifically, personal security. I intended to get this up earlier in the week, but things went sideways on Tuesday, then did an inversion on Wednesday, then a triple lindy yesterday, so…
The first thing that I think is important is something I, and several others, have stressed here in posts and comments: freaking out is not a useful activity. I’m not stating that to pooh pooh anyone’s reactions to the elections, whether they be anger, fear, anxiety, stress, depression, or any combination thereof. All of these are normal and understandable responses. And, of course, if you are feeling really overwhelmed and are having trouble finding/regaining your equilibrium please go see a professional counselor or therapist.
CLEVELAND – Police are investigating the theft of seven guns swiped from a Cleveland home sometime early Tuesday morning.
A mom and her two children were asleep upstairs when she said the thief or thieves broke into the home and cleaned out two gun cabinets. “They’re ready for a war, we were ready for a war,” said Teena Brayen
Brayen and her family are doomsday preppers. “We’re preppers, we believe in preparing for what could happen,” said Brayen.
The Brayens are part of the Three Percenters Club, a militia group that ‘exists to… protect and defend the constitution and our way of life’ by helping people ‘execute Military Strategies to defend against foreign and domestic enemies’.
But the items they wanted to use to defend against invasion in Rome made them a target for invasion in Cleveland.
On November 22, burglars – who, Brayen believes, spotted the weapons when she was moving into the home – took seven guns, 12 machetes, body armor, smoke grenades, more than $1,000 in ammo and some of their food.
Two gun cabinets were emptied of their contents: a high-powered, armor-piercing sniper rifle; five shotguns, and a pellet gun.
Thinking security means to proactively consider what the potential threats might be in order to establish effective, reasonable solutions to them. This means to consider what the potential threats and dangers are to oneself, one’s family, and one’s property (home, business, etc) and what reasonable steps should be taken ahead of time to either deter them or, should deterrence fail, respond to them in the most effective and safe manner possible. This is not just for human threats like crime or terrorism, but also for preparing to deal with natural or man made disasters such as a hurricane or blizzard or earthquake or a gas main explosion or a fracking induced sinkhole or earthquake. To do this one needs to consider several questions.
Who or what is the threat? And what kind of threat is it?
Does the location, item, and/or person need to be secured against a potential threat?
What is the extent of the location’s vulnerability?
Does the potential security countermeasure need to be human, animal, technological, or a combination of them?
How far can I, and how would I go about, extending my secure zone away from myself, my family, my home, etc?
What effect will the potential security response have on me, my family, my friends, my neighbors, my employees, coworkers, and/or customers?
https://www.balloon-juice.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/balloon_juice_header_logo_grey.jpg00Adam L Silvermanhttps://www.balloon-juice.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/balloon_juice_header_logo_grey.jpgAdam L Silverman2016-12-02 20:00:212016-12-02 21:09:33Thinking Security
My deepest apologies for my recent lack of posts. I have been working a difficult schedule fulfilling the last classes of my contracted guest lecture assignment and it has been grueling. Most of my keeping up with events has been through the use of mobile devices and I don’t feel comfortable posting from a tablet or smartphone. Also, I am still fighting my post-election blahs. Onwards and upwards!
As you can imagine, here in Brazil the crash of the plane that killed almost the entire Chapecoense football team earlier this week is dominating the news. The grief is palpable all over Brazil. After the grieving abates somewhat, there is another major question: the team is in the top division in Brazil. How do they mount a team for the next season in all competitions? The other question that is more pressing and should be addressed to prevent such future tragedies: how on earth is a professional pilot so unaware of his plane’s refueling needs?
So Bruce Arena is back as head of the US Men’s National Team as Jürgen Klinsmann apparently had apparently passed his sell-by date. Arena has a long and impressive pedigree and, save a horrible non-call against Germany in the 2002 World Cup Quarter-Final, came close to bringing the US to the semifinals of that tournament. I just hope he manages to turn things around as consecutive losses in qualifying make the process a challenge for him. At least no one suggested Steve Sampson!
Barcelona’s form has not been very impressive lately, although they remain in second place, ahead of Sevilla on goal differential. The good news at least is that they will have Andres Iniesta back.
Someone asked me how to say Schadenfreude in Portuguese. My answer? José Mourinho.
Everyone goes crazy for the World Cup and the European Championships, but if you can get to see the Africa Cup of Nations tournament, do not miss it. The final in 2015 had Côte d’Ivoire beating Ghana one penalty kicks, with the Ivorian goalkeeper, Boubacar Barry scoring his kick and then defending successfully against the Ghanian keeper, Brimah Razak. This, by the way, was after Côte d’Ivoire missed its first two attempts. Final total on the penalty kicks was 9-8.
https://www.balloon-juice.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/balloon_juice_header_logo_grey.jpg00Randinhohttps://www.balloon-juice.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/balloon_juice_header_logo_grey.jpgRandinho2016-12-02 18:33:522016-12-02 19:57:34I Haven't Disappeared: Some Football Notes and Football Open Thread.
Does anyone know the origins of the “Rubberband Man” concept? Wikipedia (don’t get me started) says, “The song, written by producer Thom Bell and singer-songwriter Linda Creed, was about Bell’s son, who was being teased by his classmates for being overweight. Intended to improve his son’s self-image, the song eventually evolved from being about “The Fat Man” to “The Rubberband Man.”
Okay, but why a rubberband? Oh well. Sometimes you have to just let art wash over you and not analyze it too closely. Open thread!
Via TPM, we now have a (metaphorically eaten) face and name to attach to that sentiment:
WASHINGTON (AP) — When Donald Trump named his Treasury secretary, Teena Colebrook felt her heart sink.
She had voted for the president-elect on the belief that he would knock the moneyed elites from their perch in Washington, D.C. And she knew Trump’s pick for Treasury—Steven Mnuchin—all too well.
OneWest, a bank formerly owned by a group of investors headed by Mnuchin, had foreclosed on her Los Angeles-area home in the aftermath of the Great Recession, stripping her of the two units she rented as a primary source of income.
“I just wish that I had not voted,” said Colebrook, 59.
Me too, Ms. Colebrook. Me too.
It’s tempting to wish Ms. Colebrook would just start punching herself in the face now and not stop until 2020, but there is something admirable about her willingness to admit she fucked up.
I suspect that won’t be the case with the lion’s leopard’s share of Trump voters, who will continue to proudly and belligerently proclaim their allegiance to Hair Furor, even when he and his minions are feasting on their noses.
There’s a whole lot of gassing about whether or not Trump voters are reachable by Democrats, and as usual when we’re talking about millions of people, a straight yes-or-no answer is almost certainly too simplistic to be accurate.
I suspect at least some small minority of them are like Colebrook, stupid and/or uninformed enough to be willing to gamble on a terrible person like Trump despite his yawning deficits as a human being rather than voting for the shitgibbon because he’s a racist, sexist, xenophobic bully.
But it doesn’t make any sense to me to remake the party to pursue people like Colebrook, any more than I’d want the party to hand out Corvettes and bottles of Jack to sew up the drunk driver vote.
https://www.balloon-juice.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/balloon_juice_header_logo_grey.jpg00Betty Crackerhttps://www.balloon-juice.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/balloon_juice_header_logo_grey.jpgBetty Cracker2016-12-02 13:29:032016-12-02 13:53:53Update on Faces vs. Leopards
JeffreyW shared that photo with me and I loved it. I have been trying to stay away from all things political these days. I have strong opinions, but not ready to share with anyone but my close circle. There are A LOT of changes happening in my life right now, so I’m focused on that for now.
In the meantime, I consider it my duty to provide you with distraction and entertainment. What’s on your entertainment menu this weekend? I’ve been invited to an ice skating party tonight and a chance to raid a friend’s holiday decorations tomorrow, to be followed by BBQ dinner. Then I need to finish putting the gardens to bed, since we’ve finally had a few days of cold weather.
RECIPE THREAD NOTE: There will be no recipe threads for a while, but I’ll probably put together some holiday stuff later in the month. My focus is usually around Christmas stuff, but if anyone wants to send me recipes and info on different holiday celebrations, please do. I would love to post about that – include photos!
Just a reminder that there will be a writing group thread on Sunday (Dec 4) at 12:30 EST/9:30 PST. For now we are going to talk process, resources and support. We’ll revisit sharing pieces after the new year.
See you there!
Also: There will be no recipe threads for a while, but I’ll probably put together some holiday stuff later in the month. My focus is usually around Christmas stuff, but if anyone wants to send me recipes and info on different holiday celebrations, please do. I would love to post about that – include photos!
The delivery mechanism through which that value is transferred is window dressing…. Everything else is window dressing or mechanics to shift blame for large benefit cuts.
I want to explain my thinking on this.
Right now Medicare is effectively a defined benefit program. The defined benefit is the federal government will make ure that a Medicare beneficiary will get 83% or better actuarial value care. Right now that actuarial value is delivered by either the traditional Medicare Fee for Service System, the CMS controlled FFS derived ACO and advanced payment methodology system or privatized Medicare Advantage plans that have to offer at 83% actuarial value. Drug coverage is provided by privatized Medicare Part D plans. Additional actuarial value can be bought via either private Medicare Supplemental plans or buying up in Medicare Advantage.
If between year 1 and year 2 we see a 20% increase in the cost of providing 83% actuarial value coverage to Medicare beneficiaries, the federal government and thus society picks up the vast majority if not all of the price increase. In the second year, the beneficiary will still be able to get 83% AV coverage.
Are there smart ways of doing this? Are there different ways of doing this that optimize different value functions? Are there more and less confusing ways of doing this? Are there more and less expensive ways of doing this? Are there more and less beneficiary friendly ways of doing this?
Yes, yes, yes, yes, oh my god, yes.
And those discussions and arguments are very well worth having.
That is not the argument in the Ryan plan.
Instead the Ryan plan is switching Medicare from a defined benefit guarantee to a defined contribution. The contribution will be a calculated lump sum that in year one will buy 83% Actuarial value insurance. In normal years of health care cost growth, the lump sum will grow slower than healthcare growth. So in year two, the lump sum buys 82% AV, in year five it buys 76% AV. If there is a shock year where the health care cost growth dramatically jumps up from a trend to a 20% spike, the beneficiaries are now left holding the bag as the federal subsidy might only now buy them 65% actuarial value coverage.
The only guarantee is that a calculated contribution which is indexed to shrink in relative buying power will be made. Individuals will be on the hook for an increasing share of actuarial value and they will bear the risk of unexpected spikes in healthcare costs (they also get any upside on unexpected drops in healthcare cost growth below nominal economic growth but that does not happen in the US often).
This is how I view the Medicare fight. And it is why I am not thrilled with the voucherization and privatization framing. A Medicare Advantage only program could credibly be called privatization. A voucher that allows people to have meaningful choice between multiple private plans at the same expected individual contribution that they currently pay now could be added to this program. It might be odd, it might be a hookers and blow looting expedition. As long as there is a guarantee that a minimal of 83% actuarial value is delivered, it would be an defined benefit program delivered by private entities.
The argument is whether or not Medicare (as well as subsidized Exchange and Medicaid) are defined benefit programs or defined contribution programs.
Everything else is a detail. Those details are worth fighting about but they are secondary to the core discussion.
https://www.balloon-juice.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/balloon_juice_header_logo_grey.jpg00Richard Mayhewhttps://www.balloon-juice.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/balloon_juice_header_logo_grey.jpgRichard Mayhew2016-12-02 08:29:252016-12-02 08:29:25Defined Benefits vs. Defined Contribution
I want to implement commentor Jenn‘s idea of a weekly Progress Open Thread, even though it’s apparently a bit soon for specific responses.
Great idea from commentor Mary G:
I went to whitehouse.gov and sent the Obamas a message:
Dear President and Mrs. Obama:
I haven’t always agreed with you, particularly on foreign policy, but boy am I going to miss you. You have done your country a great service and I thank you so much for all your hard work, and sacrifice of your privacy and freedom of action. I plan to be active in resisting the rollback of your achievements. Especially the ACA. You have been the best president and presidential family of my 60-year-old life.
What will happen to the videos and photos of your speeches and events currently on whitehouse.gov? When I am down and discouraged, I watch a speech or look at a few pictures to get fired up and ready to go. There are so many I want to see, but haven’t had time to.
God bless you, Mary
And via commentor Kathleen — Go sign Sherrod Brown’s petition that PEOTUS fire Steve Bannon. (Yeah, it’s not gonna happen, but it’ll irk both the neo-Nazi and his catspaw that us commoners aren’t being respectful.)
*********** Who’s got progress to report, or ideas to implement, as we wrap up the week?