https://www.balloon-juice.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/balloon_juice_header_logo_grey.jpg00John Colehttps://www.balloon-juice.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/balloon_juice_header_logo_grey.jpgJohn Cole2017-02-25 10:56:342017-02-25 10:56:34Once More Into the Breach
Some folks argue that if you’re focused on who wins the DNC Chair election today, you’re doing it wrong. That’s a valid point, IMO. There’s not that much difference between the candidates’ plans. Everyone seems to agree job #1 is rebuilding the party at the state level. The chair post is not really all that important in the scheme of things.
Few people would give a damn about the outcome if the race hadn’t morphed into a proxy battle between the Obama/Clinton wing and the Sanders faction. A hint of that was on display at a local party function I recently attended. Two officials somewhat passive-aggressively made their case before an audience of largely new folks who seemed baffled and indifferent. I found their bafflement and indifference encouraging.
On policy and on their prescriptions for the party, Perez and Ellison have few substantive differences. Ellison has taken pains in public forums to say that Perez was “an ally” in the Obama administration; both men have promised to pour resources into state and territorial Democratic parties, reversing what was seen as a trend toward centralization during the Obama years.
But outside of the DNC, progressive writers and organizers have begun to ring alarms about an Ellison defeat. On Friday morning, a number of groups that had endorsed Ellison, including MoveOn.org, 350 Action and the Progressive Change Campaign Committee, asked DNC members “to be heroes” and back the congressman’s campaign.
“If Keith Ellison is DNC Chair, we can hit the ground running — and because of the pre-existing trust that exists between Keith and the grassroots, every state party would have a head start harnessing the power of the resistance,” they wrote.
I’ll be fine with whoever wins, but the framing in the quote above chaps my ass a little since it implies the Berniecrats own the resistance, which they do not. The resistance belongs to each and every person who got off of his or her ass and took to the streets. And millions of us were middle-aged ladies who voted for Clinton in the primary. Balloon Juice favorite Glenn Greenwald put it in even more offensive terms:
“If the plan to sink Ellison succeeds, the message that will be heard — fairly or not — is that the Democratic Party continues to venerate loyalty to its oligarchical donors above all else.”
That’s a steaming load of horseshit. Perez is a highly qualified candidate, and for many Democrats, his connection with a successful, incredibly popular two-term Democratic president is a decisive factor. End of fucking story.
On the other side of the coin, Alan Dershowitz, who is a giant, spraying douchenozzle and Fox News regular, says he’ll leave the party if Ellison is elected and encourage other “centrist Democrats” to leave with him. In later comments on his favorite network, Dershowitz said the following:
I will not be a member of a party that represents itself through a chairman like Keith Ellison and through policies like that espoused by John Kerry and Barack Obama.
So now it’s not just Ellison but Kerry and Obama too? Sounds like the Republican Party really is a better fit for Dershowitz, and I doubt he’ll have many “centrist Democrats” trailing him as he exits stage right.
The bottom line for me: I’ll support whomever wins. We have an honest-to-Christ unhinged demagogue to oppose. That’s what matters.
In the meantime, here’s a survey to capture participant consensus on who will win today’s vote:
Seems to me it could go either way, but we really can’t go wrong, IMO. Both leading candidates have much to offer, and there’s a lot of work to be done, so let’s get past this, lose the butt-hurt and get to work. Open thread!
https://www.balloon-juice.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/balloon_juice_header_logo_grey.jpg00Betty Crackerhttps://www.balloon-juice.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/balloon_juice_header_logo_grey.jpgBetty Cracker2017-02-25 09:54:282017-02-25 09:54:28Vicious and Bitter Because the Stakes Are So Low
I hope more Republicans come out in favor of this, though I doubt they will:
Rep. Darrell Issa, R-Vista, said on Friday that a special prosecutor needs to lead an investigation into the alleged ties between President Donald Trump’s campaign and Russian leader Vladimir Putin’s regime.
https://www.balloon-juice.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/balloon_juice_header_logo_grey.jpg00Doug!https://www.balloon-juice.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/balloon_juice_header_logo_grey.jpgDoug!2017-02-25 07:48:282017-02-25 07:48:28Issa calls for special prosecutor
https://www.balloon-juice.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/balloon_juice_header_logo_grey.jpg00Anne Lauriehttps://www.balloon-juice.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/balloon_juice_header_logo_grey.jpgAnne Laurie2017-02-25 06:42:462017-02-25 06:42:46Saturday Morning Open Thread: Out of the Darkness
We’re trying a new feature here, so let’s see how it goes for the next week or so before it’s fully automated.
This post is for Balloon Juicers who are on the road, travelling, etc. and wish to share notes, links, pictures, stories, etc. from their escapades. As the US mainland begins the end of the Earth day as we measure it, many of us rise to read about our friends and their transient locales.
So, please, speak up and share some of your adventures, observations, and sights as you explore, no matter where you are.
https://www.balloon-juice.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/balloon_juice_header_logo_grey.jpg00Alain the site fixerhttps://www.balloon-juice.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/balloon_juice_header_logo_grey.jpgAlain the site fixer2017-02-25 05:00:252017-02-24 07:50:49On The Road
https://www.balloon-juice.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/balloon_juice_header_logo_grey.jpg00Anne Lauriehttps://www.balloon-juice.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/balloon_juice_header_logo_grey.jpgAnne Laurie2017-02-25 02:58:432017-02-25 02:58:43Late Night Open Thread: In the Room Where It Happened
The lady friend (she’s actually ok with you all knowing her name as she has quite a web presence and has commented on one of the posts about her, but I just like saying the lady friend and pissing you all off when I get the chance) left this morning early, and I had two missions to complete. I had to pick up four antique chippendale chairs for her, and I had to get a corner cupboard for me. So I grabbed Gerald and we fired up the trusty Subaru, programmed google maps to get us to Cheswick, and off we went to the NE side of Pittsburgh.
Pro-tip: The tunnels at Pittsburgh suck around rush hour. Learning experience.
Right around then, the lady friend called from the road and informed me she could not find her wallet. She had had it this morning, and I knew she got gas first thing, so I asked her how she bought gas. Turns out she left her wallet on the top of the car at the gas station in Washington, PA. Four hours away from where she currently was. She told me she has only lost her wallet once in her entire life, and my first thought was “Ha- the tractor beam of comic error that is my life already has her in its grasp.”
So to figure out where she got gas (she had no idea because why would she know the name of a damned gas station in the middle of nowhere), I told her to go online and look at her debit card info, and then she looked it up and called the gas station. The person working did not speak English and she sounded really pissed and irritated, so I had her text me the number, I would call, and then after we picked up the chairs, I would drive the to Washington and see if they had it.
Called them up, and he REALLY did not speak English very well. AT ALL. He just kept saying “come tomorrow the girl who was working will be here,” which, for obvious reasons, was not satisfactory. I asked to speak to his boss, and he told me has no boss. It took me a while to realize he meant he had no manager, so I asked him “If someone were to rob you, who would you call.”
He replied… “police.”
This is a reminder that just because someone doesn’t speak English, it doesn’t mean they are a moron. I then asked him “ok, after the police, who would you call” and he gave me the number. I called him, he said “oh yeah, he doesn’t speak english, I can call him.”
Got there, loaded up the corner cupboard (a steal at 150 bucks), programmed google maps to get us to McKeesport, and off we went. The guy we were buying them from had a NYC cell phone number and a British accent, and when we got to the address, and it was not a nice area. At all. Although I do think I know where to buy some drugs now. At any rate, we called him, and he said he was waiting outside, but there was no one there. Again, this was a sketchy neighborhood, and this was craigslist, and the chairs were 300 bucks, so I said to Gerald “maybe this is a setup and we’re about to get jacked.” That is when the guy called back and told us that we must be at the north version of that address, he is at the south version of that address, on the other side of the library. I thought DC was the only place that had that kind of fuckery, but we drove off and got to a part of the neighborhood that was WORSE.
Outside is this sketchy looking dude, barefoot, looking like a 60 year old Jeff Spicoli. And he was living in and ABANDONED CHURCH. I told Gerald I would go in and pay and we would get the chairs, and he could stay with the car because Gerald for reasons I do not know is afraid of churches. Some things are best left unasked. The guy said “oh no, you don’t want to do that” and ushered us inside and deadbolted the door after we were in. At any rate, the church was completely gutted on the inside, the flooring was nothing but 1/2″ plywood, and he had fashioned a living room in the middle and a kitchen in the corner and the whole interior was under construction and there were antiques everywhere. Got the chairs, loaded them up, and at this point we had some serious Beverly Hillbillies shit going on.
For extra flavor, I was wearing overalls. Because that’s how I roll.
Drove an hour to Washington, got to the gas station, no wallet. In fact, I think the guy was proud of the fact that he had learned the word wallet, because he said “no wallet” three times and smiled. Loaded up, drove off and… hit a Philly sized pothole and the glass in the corner cupboard shattered.
Five minutes later, the check engine light went on, and the car started missing horribly. Fortunately, if there is one person in the world to be with when a car breaks down, it is Gerald, because the guy is a fucking genius who can do anything with cars. we turned and went back a couple miles to an Advanced Auto Parts, ran a diagnostic, and most of my spark plugs had gone tits up. Bought some spark plugs and just gambled we would make it home, and if not, he would have his cousin bring tools to wherever we broke down and he would MacGuyver some shit with the new plugs.
Got home. A four hour trip turned into eight, the glass in the cupboard is shattered, my car is in need of the ER, and someone shit in the living room while I was gone and I know it was fucking Rosie.
Here’s the corner cupboard and a stark reminder that my photography skills blow:
https://www.balloon-juice.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/balloon_juice_header_logo_grey.jpg00John Colehttps://www.balloon-juice.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/balloon_juice_header_logo_grey.jpgJohn Cole2017-02-24 21:28:502017-02-24 21:32:02So I Had a Day
The positive news is that a neighboring church, the Cypress Point Community Church, allowed the members of the mosque to hold their Friday prayers there. The Hillsborough County Fire Department has the lead on the investigation, but the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms was also on site and is providing support. I haven’t seen any information on a possible suspect, but this is the second arson at a Florida mosque in six months.
https://www.balloon-juice.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/balloon_juice_header_logo_grey.jpg00Adam L Silvermanhttps://www.balloon-juice.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/balloon_juice_header_logo_grey.jpgAdam L Silverman2017-02-24 21:25:402017-02-24 21:25:40Today in Domestic Terrorism and Stochastic Violence: Mosque Arson in Florida
https://www.balloon-juice.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/balloon_juice_header_logo_grey.jpg00Anne Lauriehttps://www.balloon-juice.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/balloon_juice_header_logo_grey.jpgAnne Laurie2017-02-24 20:26:442017-02-24 18:23:39Depraved Leprechaun Open Thread: AG Jefferson Beauregard Sessions Pines for the Days of Chain Gangs
… Two young, progressive activists from DC, Jason Charter and Ryan Clayton with the group Americans Take Action, purchased tickets to the conference, and handed out nearly 1,000 flags to attendees as a prank. After they were thrown out of the conference, they told TPM they wanted to “shed light on an important issue”—namely, the drip of revelations of backchannel communications between the Russian government and the Trump campaign—and allow people to “get a laugh out of their day.”
Charter, 22, told TPM by phone that he and Clayton organized the prank in order to “honor Trump’s relationship with Putin.” He said almost no one at CPAC seemed to realize the flag he handed them bore the horizontal red, white, and blue stripes of the Russian Federation underneath Trump’s name…
Apart from cheering on the pranksters, what’s on the agenda as we prepare to start the weekend?
https://www.balloon-juice.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/balloon_juice_header_logo_grey.jpg00Anne Lauriehttps://www.balloon-juice.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/balloon_juice_header_logo_grey.jpgAnne Laurie2017-02-24 18:31:302017-02-24 18:31:30Friday Evening Open Thread: Put Out More (Russian) Flags!
Apropos of my desire for Phillip Seymour Hoffman to play Steve Bannon from beyond the grave, reader J writes:
Your blog post got me thinking – What if I could use CGI to cast a dead actor or actress for a role in a previously released film? Which dead actor or actress would I choose and which role would I select? If there’s a lull in the Trump feeding frenzy, would you consider a thread asking readers to offer up their suggestions?
His pick will be hard to top:
After some deliberation, this is what I dreamt up:
I’d create a new version of The Godfather Part II in which I’d cast Jimmy Stewart in the role of Senator Pat Geary.
https://www.balloon-juice.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/balloon_juice_header_logo_grey.jpg00Doug!https://www.balloon-juice.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/balloon_juice_header_logo_grey.jpgDoug!2017-02-24 17:17:492017-02-24 17:17:49Maybe everything that dies some day comes back
I had a catastrophic plan the first year — which was the year I was diagnosed with ovarian cancer that July. Living in Louisiana, I fell into the “Jindal Hole,” where I made too much money for Medicaid but not enough money to qualify for a subsidy. It was a nightmare. Out-of-pocket cap was supposed to be $6,300 after a $4,200 deductible (which was a fortune that I couldn’t afford anyway…), but having a major diagnosis meant that I racked up bills so fast that they couldn’t even process the claims to figure out when the insurance would kick in. Fast forward to October, where I was standing at the reception desk of the oncologist’s office, crying, because I couldn’t pay the $5,000 copay to get the chemotherapy I was scheduled for that day. I was paying almost $500 a month for insurance, had spent borrowed and spent nearly $7,000 in copays and deposits to meet my deductible and and out-of-pocket cap, but none of that mattered. I had to postpone chemotherapy and spent the next several days on the phone trying to get someone to authorize treatment or find some way to come up with thousands of more dollars on the spot.
The next year, I made enough money to get a silver plan, and I was paying $128 a month in premiums, with a $200 deductible, after which everything was totally covered. I would not have survived another year on the catastrophic plan.
When Steve and Leslie Shaeffer’s daughter, Selah, was diagnosed at age 4 with a potentially fatal tumor in her jaw, they figured their health insurance would cover the bulk of her treatment costs.
Instead, almost two years later, the Murrieta, Calif., couple face more than $60,000 in medical bills and fear the loss of their dream home. They struggle to stave off creditors as they try to figure out how Selah can keep seeing the physician they credit with saving her life.
“We’re in big trouble,” Leslie said.
Shortly after Selah’s medical bills hit $20,000, Blue Cross stopped covering them and eventually canceled her coverage retroactively, refusing to pay for treatment, including surgery the insurer had authorized in advance.
The company accused the Shaeffers of failing to disclose in their coverage application an undiagnosed bump on Selah’s chin and physician visits for croup. Had that been disclosed, the company said in a letter, it would not have insured Selah.
https://www.balloon-juice.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/balloon_juice_header_logo_grey.jpg00David Andersonhttps://www.balloon-juice.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/balloon_juice_header_logo_grey.jpgDavid Anderson2017-02-24 15:42:302017-02-24 07:45:15Why we need to fight
A draft House Republican repeal bill would dismantle Obamacare subsidies and scrap its Medicaid expansion, according to a copy of the proposal obtained by POLITICO.
The legislation would take down the foundation of Obamacare, including the unpopular individual mandate, subsidies based on people’s income, and all of the law’s taxes. It would significantly roll back Medicaid spending and give states money to create high-risk pools for some people with pre-existing conditions. Some elements would be effective right away; others not until 2020.
The replacement would be paid for by limiting tax breaks on generous health plans people get at work — an idea that is similar to the Obamacare “Cadillac tax” that Republicans have fought to repeal.
https://www.balloon-juice.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/balloon_juice_header_logo_grey.jpg00Doug!https://www.balloon-juice.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/balloon_juice_header_logo_grey.jpgDoug!2017-02-24 13:10:382017-02-24 13:10:38Brand new cadillac
P.66 has the replacement subsidies that are determined solely by age and do not reflect either income or local cost of coverage:
18 to 29 — $2,000 year
30-39 — $2,500 year
40-49 — $3,000 year (note mid-40s is when the cost curve which is incresing from a 3:1 band to a 5:1 band starts getting expensive)
50-59 — $3,500 year
60+ — $4,000 year
There are major distributional impacts that will kick the Republican base voters in the teeth. Most notably the increase of the age premium band from 3:1 to 5:1 will make insurance much more expensive for older insured individuals. The subsidy band is only 2:1.
In Pittsburgh under the 3:1 band, a 29 year old can buy a catastrophic policy today for less than their monthly subsidy. A Bronze plan would cost $20 out of pocket every month and a Silver plan $47 per month. Under the same banding, a 64 year old with their $333 non-income adjusted subsidy will be able to buy a catastrophic policy for $89 per month, a Bronze plan for $152 per month and a Silver plan for $211 per month. This is a favorable set of assumptions for the 64 year old as the age banding is 3:1 instead of 5:1. Less favorable assumptions would make the Silver policy cost $600 or more after subsidy for a 64 year old. The only person who will buy that policy is someone who is already getting extremely expensive treatment in the hospital.
That appeals to liberal moral interest and a bit of schradenfreude. A more useful angle of attack is to look at what that 29 year old and 64 year old can buy after the subsidy in Alaska (zip code 99501). There a 64 year old under 3:1 band would see a Bronze plan cost them $1,300 a month and a Silver plan cost them $1,700 a month after the flat age based subsidy is applied. These numbers will get even larger once a 5:1 premium band is applied. This will death spiral the individual market.
Apply the same analysis to Arizona which also has two Republican Senators that count on an older supporting voter base and there are stories to tell which will inflict significant political risk to Republican Senators.
https://www.balloon-juice.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/balloon_juice_header_logo_grey.jpg00David Andersonhttps://www.balloon-juice.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/balloon_juice_header_logo_grey.jpgDavid Anderson2017-02-24 11:52:052017-02-24 11:52:49Age based subsidies and geographic disparities
Paul Krugman has used the three legged stool analogy to describe the ACA several times. It is an analogy that is vivid in its description and useful in its implications:
Yes! The Court (minus the three stooges) understood that the ACA is designed to work via the “three-legged stool” of guaranteed issue and community rating, the individual mandate, and subsidies. All three elements are needed to make it work, which is why it was obvious to anyone who paid any attention that the lawsuit was nonsense.
There is a problem with this analogy. It is too specific.
There are three legs of the stool. Two can stand without modification. Guarantee issue with community rating stands as a firm leg. It means that anyone can get a policy at a standard rate. In the ACA, that standard rate is based on the county or zip code of residence and age of the applicant. Subsidies also are a firm leg. They help people who can not afford the standard rate pay for the standard rate.
The third leg of the stool is a pool participation mechanism. The individual mandate is a specific type of the third leg. There are other mechanical techniques that can fundamentally perform the same needed function of getting people who think that they will be relatively healthy and low utilizers into the insured risk pool. 100% subsidy for the premium and auto-enrollment with an opt-out performs the same function as the mandate in getting healthy people in the pool. It would force a lot more healthy people into the pool at a higher expenditure for a given level of actuarial value coverage. Late enrollment penalties like those used in Medicare that are long lasting and significant are another approach to get healthy people in the current period into the pool. Multi-year contracts that extend the zone of uncertainty and risk theoretically perform the same function.
All of these techniques are ways to minimize the cost gap between not being covered at all and being covered at a minimal level while participating in the pool. They attack the same problem from a variety of angles but they are functionally similar to each other.
So the actual three legged stool of the ACA is community-rated guarantee issue, subsidies and pool participation mechanism. Keep this in mind as we again talk health reform over the next year.
https://www.balloon-juice.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/balloon_juice_header_logo_grey.jpg00David Andersonhttps://www.balloon-juice.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/balloon_juice_header_logo_grey.jpgDavid Anderson2017-02-24 11:28:522017-02-23 08:34:20Revisiting the three legged stool