(The Face of War by Daria Marchenko)
Commenter Jay sent me the image and suggested it for tonight’s post. Ms. Marchenko created it back in 2015 after Putin’s initial invasion of Ukraine. Here’s the details on it from the Australian Broadcasting Company aka ABC:
A young Ukrainian artist has captured global media attention by creating a striking portrait of Russian president Vladimir Putin out of 5,000 bullet shells collected in the separatist east.
Daria Marchenko’s The Face of War – a realistic and politically tinged depiction of Mr Putin in a dark suit and red tie – stands more than two metres tall and dominates the artist’s studio apartment.
“Sleeping in the same room with him was a bit scary at first. But I got used to it,” the 33-year-old artist and graphic designer said.
The 62-year-old Russian leader’s face changes expression under different light, his deep-set eyes turning from gloomy to more light-hearted.
Marchenko – her own right eyebrow pierced and fingers weighed down by heavy metal rings – demonstrates by drawing the window curtains and shining a hand-held lamp around her work.
“He can be proud, confused or serious,” she said.
“He can look like a person on a Soviet poster or he can be Superman.”
Her story has been covered by Britain’s top media outlets and major European and Australian papers and television channels.
But the artist has received barely a mention in Russia – Ukraine’s giant neighbour where Mr Putin’s approval rating is huge and denial of any involvement in the 16-month conflict is ever-present in the state-dominated media.
Only Russia’s popular Moskovsky Komsomolets broadsheet broke ranks by devoting a two-sentence paragraph to Marchenko’s work last month.
Marchenko has not concealed her deep-seated suspicion Putin personally instigated a conflict that has killed nearly 7,000 people since breaking out after Kiev’s ouster of a Kremlin-backed president.
“When people see his expression change, it reveals certain things,” she said.
“To me, this war is different from all others because it is built on a lie”.
Buckets and wooden crates filled with bullet cases occupy the centre of the artist’s small room.
Her first handful of shells came from her boyfriend, an active member of the Euromaidan movement that toppled the corruption-stained and deeply unpopular president Viktor Yanukovych and forced him into self-imposed Russian exile.
But her art supplies now come from friends fighting across the war zone in eastern Ukraine’s industrial heartland.
Much more at the link.
Here’s today’s address by President Zelenskyy. Transcript after the jump.
Unbreakable people of the bravest country!
Today we marked the Border Guard Day. It is clear that there can be no celebrations during the war. But it is necessary to support Ukrainian men and women who defend the state in the ranks of the Border Guard Service.
Since the first days of the war – and not only since February 24, but also since 2014 – border guards have been bravely defending Ukraine. They fulfill combat missions. They were the first to face the Russian invaders at the state border. They are under daily shelling. They are fighting side by side with the Armed Forces of Ukraine, with our National Guard, with the National Police, with the territorial defense and all those who stood up for our state.
In particular, they are fighting in Mariupol, heroically defending our city. 340 border guards – our heroes. I talked to them today. Congratulated them. Thanked them.
I am grateful to everyone whose professional day was today. I had the honor to present state awards to border guards who distinguished themselves in the battles for our state.
The occupiers are accumulating additional forces for new attacks against our military in the east of the country. They built up reinforcements in the Kharkiv region, trying to increase pressure in Donbas. They have already lost more than 23,000 soldiers in the battles of this senseless war for Russia. But they do not stop.
We know that the Russian command is preparing for new big losses.
In those units, the personnel of which was almost completely destroyed or significantly weakened in March-April, new people are being recruited. With little motivation. With little combat experience. They just want to get the right amount. So that they can throw these units into the offensive.
The Russian command is well aware that thousands more Russian soldiers will be killed and thousands more will be wounded in the coming weeks.
But why do the Russian soldiers themselves need this? Why do their families need this? Russian commanders lie to their soldiers saying they will face some serious responsibility for refusing to fight. And at the same time they do not tell, for example, about the preparation by the Russian army of additional refrigerators for storing corpses. They do not tell what new “planned” losses the generals expect.
Every Russian soldier can still save his life. You’d better survive in Russia than die on our land.
Our defenders have already destroyed more than a thousand Russian tanks. Almost two hundred Russian aircraft. Almost two and a half thousand armored fighting vehicles. Of course, the occupiers still have equipment in stock. Yes, they still have missiles to strike at our territory. But this war has already weakened Russia so much that they have to plan even fewer military equipment for the parade in Moscow.
We are actively communicating with partners to enhance sanctions on Russia. For Mariupol, for all the destroyed cities and communities of Ukraine, for war crimes against our people. For missile and air strikes at the territory of Ukraine.
Today the occupiers again fired missiles at the Dnipropetrovsk region and Odesa. Again and again, Russian troops prove that the people of Odesa are the same enemies for Russia as all other Ukrainians. The runway of the Odesa airport was destroyed. We will, of course, rebuild it. But Odesa will never forget such a Russian attitude towards it.
We expect a decision on oil restrictions against Russia in the near future. We insist that a fair part of sanctions against Russian oil should be the blocking of any attempts by Russia to circumvent restrictions through the sale of so-called oil blends. If any company or state helps Russia trade oil, it must also face sanctions. Any sponsorship in the interests of the Russian military terrorist machine must end.
I spoke today with President of France Emmanuel Macron. On various areas of cooperation between Ukraine and France, especially on defense. Also – on cooperation on Ukraine’s path to the European Union. We are moving towards the political formalization of what is already a fact: Ukraine has become an integral part of a united Europe.
I also spoke with British Prime Minister Boris Johnson. On defense support for Ukraine and other efforts necessary to end the war.
I informed Boris about the current situation on the battlefield in the areas of active clashes and in detail about the situation in our east, in Mariupol, in the south of the country.
All the leaders of the free world know what Russia has done to Mariupol. And Russia will not go unpunished for this.
Many of the leaders are trying to help save our heroic defenders of the city. This was discussed in great detail with the UN Secretary-General during his visit to Kyiv. We are doing everything to ensure that the evacuation mission from Mariupol is carried out.
I held talks with President of Switzerland Cassis. Thanked for the humanitarian support of Ukraine and Ukrainians. The mediating role of Switzerland in helping Ukrainians who found themselves in Russia was discussed. Preparations for the conference on postwar reconstruction of our state were also discussed.
We are doing everything to return normal life to the de-occupied part of our Ukraine. The work of humanitarian offices has already begun in 93% of de-occupied settlements.
We are actively demining the liberated territory. Every day several dozen settlements are added to the list of those where demining has been completed. 69% of de-occupied settlements are again with full-fledged local self-government. We are restoring electricity supply, communications, water supply and gas supply. We are doing everything to return normal medicine, educational services, access to financial institutions. We are restoring roads.
Of course, there is still a lot of work ahead. The occupiers are still on our land and still do not recognize the apparent failure of their so-called operation. We still need to fight and direct all efforts to drive the occupiers out. And we will do it. Ukraine will be free.
Kherson, Nova Kakhovka, Melitopol, Berdyansk, Dniprorudne and all other temporarily occupied cities and communities in which the occupiers are now pretending to be “masters” will be liberated.
The Ukrainian flag will return wherever it should be by right. Return with a normal life, which Russia is simply unable to provide even on its own territory.
I signed a decree on awarding our defenders – warriors of the National Guard of Ukraine. 133 national guards were awarded state awards, 11 of them posthumously.
Eternal memory to all who died for Ukraine!
Eternal glory to everyone who stood up for the state!
Glory to Ukraine!
Here’s today’s operational update from Ukraine’s MOD:
The operational update regarding the russian invasion on 18.00 on April 30, 2022
The sixty-sixth day of the heroic resistance of the Ukrainian people to a russian military invasion continues.
russian enemy continues to conduct full-scale armed aggression against Ukraine and offensive operations in the Eastern Operational Zone.
In the Slobozhansky direction, a group of russian enemy troops continues to launch air strikes and artillery shelling on the city of Kharkiv.
In the Izium direction, russian occupiers, with the help of independent units of the 1st Tank Army and the 20th Combined Arms Army of the Western Military District, the 35th Combined Arms Army and the 68th Army Corps of the Eastern Military District, and airborne troops are trying to advance in the direction Izium – Barvinkove and Izium – Slovyansk.
russian enemy continues to concentrate forces and resources both in the temporarily occupied territories of the Kharkiv oblast and in the Belgorod region, in the immediate vicinity of the state border of Ukraine. Thus, the occupiers moved units of the 55th Independent Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 41st Combined Arms Army of the Central Military District to the Volokhiv Yar settlement, and units of the 5th Independent Tank Brigade of the 36th Combined Arms Army of the Eastern Military District to Izyum.
russian enemy is increasing the air defense system, conducting air reconnaissance of the positions of units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine with the use of UAVs in the settlements of Velyka Komyshuvakha, Ivanivka, Chervone, Kurulka, Dovhenke, Nova Dmytrivka and Barvinkove.
russian occupation forces continue to carry out illegal actions in the occupied territories of Kharkiv region. According to available information, russian enemy is forcibly deporting the population to the territory of the russian federation. russian occupiers are spreading misinformation about the capture of Kharkiv, Kyiv and Zaporizhzhia.
In the Donetsk direction, russian enemy is conducting active hostilities along almost the entire line of contact. Air strikes and artillery shelling of Ukrainian defenders’ positions continue.
The main efforts of the enemy are focused on offensive operations in the Lyman, Severodonetsk, Popasna and Kurakhiv areas in order to take full control of the settlements of Rubizhne, Popasna and, probably, further attack on the Lyman, Slovyansk and Barvinkove.
In the Mariupol direction, russian enemy continued to launch air strikes on the city of Mariupol. The main efforts are focused on blocking units of the Defence Forces in the area of the Azovstal plant.
In the Zaporizhzhia direction, russian enemy regrouped and increased artillery units in order to continue the offensive.
In the Tavriya direction, russian enemy continues to demonstrative actions in order to prevent the transfer of units of Ukrainian troops to other areas, replenishes stocks of ammunition and fuel and lubricants.
In the South Buh direction, russian occupiers forces of the 8th and 49th Combined Arms Armies, the 22nd Army Corps, the coastal units of the Black Sea Fleet of the Southern Military District and airborne troops are fighting to improve their tactical position. The enemy continues to regroup units, take measures to replenish supplies.
Preparatory measures of the enemy to carry out the offensive and reach the administrative border of the Kherson region are underway.
In the Mykolayiv direction russian enemy continues attempts of fire destruction of positions of our troops.
In the Bessarabian direction, russian occupiers are spreading misinformation about the threat to the population of the transnistrian region of the Republic of Moldova from Ukraine.
In the Volyn and Polissya directions, units of the Armed Forces of the republic of belarus continue to perform tasks to strengthen the section of the Ukrainian-belarusian border in the Brest and Gomel regions.
It is possible that russian enemy will provoke in the border areas.
russian enemy remains in danger of launching missile and bomb strikes on military and civilian infrastructure in Ukraine. According to the available information, the russian mobile short range ballistic missile systems Iskander-M are still deployed in the territory of the republic of belarus, and some aviation units of the russian Air Force continue to be based at certain airfields.
In the Siversky direction, russian enemy continues artillery shelling of units of our troops and infrastructure in the border areas of Ukraine with the russian federation.
russian occupiers are launching missile and bomb attacks and carrying out artillery shelling of civilian infrastructure and residential areas in the settlements of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Luhansk and Kharkiv oblasts.
russian enemy also continues to illegally detain Ukrainian citizens and tortures and torments them.
As a result of the offensive of the Ukrainian Defence Forces in the Kharkiv oblast, control over the settlements of Verkhnya Rohanka, Ruska Lozova, Slobidske and Prilesne was restored.
We believe in the Armed Forces of Ukraine! Let’s win together!
Glory to Ukraine!
We’ll get to Mariupol below, but the good news in today’s Ukrainian MOD update is they’ve reestablished control over five towns north of Kharkiv. This pushes the Russians even farther back and away from the city.
Here’s today’s updated assessment from the British MOD:
And here’s the British MOD map for today.
You can still see that the contested area between Izium and Luhanks is getting smaller.
There is no DOD backgrounder for today.
Mariupol:
The Russians heavily bombarded the Azovstal facility over the past 24 hours. It’s defenders and those they’re defending are in serious jeopardy!
The civilians and wounded servicemen evacuation: #Azovstal.
20 civilians are evacuated.#AZOV servicemen are rescuing civilians from the blockage.
People needing urgent medical care are not evacuated to ??.ASK for the evacuation of both civilians and wounded#savemariupol @UN pic.twitter.com/T8sNVkh7RR— Save MARIUPOL ?? (@save_mrpl) April 30, 2022
Fresh satellite pics from @Maxar.
Heavy destruction at the Azovstal in Mariupol. pic.twitter.com/GfLmdEEfYp— Illia Ponomarenko ?? (@IAPonomarenko) April 30, 2022
Looks like at least 20 civilians have been rescued from the Azovstal and taken to Ukrainian-controlled territory.
The best possible outcome for them.
Now we (the whole world) should continue rendering pressure upon Russia so it lets the rest go – including wounded combatants.— Illia Ponomarenko ?? (@IAPonomarenko) April 30, 2022
Yesterday The NY Times published an in depth piece of reporting on those defending Mariupol from the Azovstal complex and those seeking shelter with them:
The footage shows a child wearing a makeshift diaper crafted out of tape and plastic bags, asleep in a dank and moldy room. An elderly woman with a bandaged head is seen dressed in a uniform jacket, once worn by steel plant workers, as she shakes uncontrollably. And small children make plaintive requests. “We want to go home,” a girl says. “We want to see the sunshine.”
These scenes are from videos shared online in recent days by the Azov regiment, a unit in the Ukrainian military, which says they were taken in the mazelike bunkers beneath the sprawling Azovstal steel plant in Mariupol, Ukraine. Russian soldiers control the rest of the city, and fighting continues around the plant. The plant has become the last refuge for thousands of trapped Ukrainian fighters and civilians. There is no escape, and little chance of rescue.
The independent journalists who chronicled the siege of Mariupol for Western news media left a month and a half ago because the security risks were too great. The warring parties have stepped in to fill the vacuum of firsthand coverage, sharing content from the ground and, in Azov’s case, pleading for help to their hundreds of thousands of followers on social media.
With almost no cellphone service, electricity or access to the internet, Azov’s videos provide what could be some of the only glimpses into life at the steel plant.
Early Thursday, Azov fighters said Russian forces had bombed a field hospital within the plant, reportedly killing wounded soldiers and burying people in the rubble. Reports of the attack prompted renewed calls from Ukrainian officials and the United Nations secretary general, António Guterres, for a humanitarian corridor to evacuate civilians.
Supplies within the plant are said to be running extremely low. “It is not a matter of days, it’s a matter of hours,” Mariupol’s mayor, Vadym Boychenko, told a news conference on Friday.
“If Mariupol is hell, Azovstal is worse.”
Russia views capturing the port city as crucial to its aim of securing a land bridge along Ukraine’s south to connect Crimea to the Donbas, and its forces have been shelling the plant relentlessly. The devastation there — city officials have said that tens of thousands of residents have been killed — stands as one of the largest humanitarian crises of the war.
“We are filming these videos to draw attention to the fact that they are at the plant, so that the enemy does not say there are no civilians here,” Capt. Svyatoslav Palamar, the deputy commander of the Azov regiment based at the factory, told The New York Times in a text message.
“So that they can be evacuated.”
The Times could not independently verify the exact location of the videos, but the interiors appear consistent with the design of the plant, and a former employee familiar with the premises confirmed that the images seemed to have been created there.
Since April 18, Azov has released several videos that focus on civilians who say they are trapped at the plant, and feature mostly women and children. “I want everyone who sees this video to help us create this green corridor, to help us leave here,” said one mother holding her toddler in a video released on April 24, when Ukraine was observing Orthodox Easter. “Safely. Alive. The civilians and the soldiers.”
Much more at the link!
Many ask why #Ukraine wants to evacuate soliders & civilians from #Mariupol, but doesn't offer them to surrender to the russians.
If our people surrender, they will be killed in a few days. Geneva Convention means nothing to the russians. And learnt this from experience.
— Inna Sovsun (@InnaSovsun) April 30, 2022
We don't want the #russians to kill #Ukrainians who surrender. That is why we demand the evacuation of our people from #Mariupol from the #Azovstal plant.
Only this will save their lives.The West needs to do more! The @UN must do more!
— Inna Sovsun (@InnaSovsun) April 30, 2022
Ukrayinska Pravda has the details on the Russian war crime that Ukrainian Member of Parliament Sovsun has tweeted:
WARNING! Sensitive content.
The mother of a Ukrainian military prisoner in Mariupol named Dan received a photo of her dead son on the morning of April 30.
Source: mother of the soldier in a comment to “Ukrainska Pravda”
Details: The mother said that Dan was surrounded by the Russians on 19-20 April and had appeared in a video made by Russian propagandists.
On the morning of April 30, she was sent a photo in which she recognized her son.
I watched the video so you don’t have to. I’m not posting it.
If the Ukrainian military cannot find a way to break the Russian siege of Mariupol, its defenders and those they are defending are going to give, as Abraham Lincoln once described it, the last full measure.
Odesa:
Odesa airport struck by Russian missiles. The tarmac is destroyed and cannot be used, officials confirm. I took a flight from Odesa airport last summer, it was new and shiny. It is no more
— Olga Tokariuk (@olgatokariuk) April 30, 2022
Lviv:
Meeting the refugees from Donbas ?? pic.twitter.com/uDEbHuSWky
— Tanya Kozyreva (@TanyaKozyreva) April 30, 2022
Someone at the coffee shop is unimpressed!
Jolie is a UN envoy regarding refugees.
Pretty much everywhere in Ukraine:
– They put a grenade in a cup, attach a toy on a top, so that a kid comes back & gets blown up. Or a booby-trapped stroller. It’s animals, not people. #StandWithUkraine️ #StandUpForUkraine #StopRussia #ArmUkraineNow pic.twitter.com/GWqWtQdabR
— olexander scherba?? (@olex_scherba) April 30, 2022
Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL) has published a report on the sabotage campaign within Russia:
Early in the morning on April 27, a drone crashed in a muddy field southwest of the Russian city of Kursk, around 100 kilometers northeast of the border with Ukraine. Locals tracked down the destroyed device not long after, and posted photographs to Telegram and other social media.
The device appeared to be a Bayraktar TB2, a versatile Turkish-designed unmanned aerial vehicle capable of long-distance surveillance as well as dropping guided bombs or firing anti-tank missiles.
It wasn’t the Russians who were flying the drone.
And that wasn’t the only unusual thing that happened in that part of Russia that same morning: There were also two unexplained explosions at Russian military and industrial sites — one in Kursk and one near Voronezh, not far to the east.
Nor does it appear to have been Russians who flew low-altitude attack helicopters in the pre-dawn hours of April 1 around the time that a fuel depot exploded less than 50 kilometers from the Ukrainian border.
Since February 24, Russian forces have laid waste to towns and cities in northern, eastern, and southern Ukraine, killing thousands of civilians and forcing millions to flee in a war that prompted the West to punish Moscow with sanctions and send massive supplies of military aid and support to Kyiv.
Ukrainian forces thwarted an offensive aimed at taking Kyiv in the war’s early weeks, prompting Russian troops to withdraw from close to the capital. Much of the fighting is now focused on the region known as the Donbas and other areas in the east and south.
Away from the active battlefronts within Ukraine, though, there’s a less bloody, less prominent front in the two-month-old war, a shadow campaign that has included attacks on military and industrial targets in Russia itself.
It’s not clear how many incidents have occurred, or whether they resulted from air strikes, or missiles, or sabotage. An unofficial tally by RFE/RL, based on open-source reporting, counts at least a dozen since the war’s beginning.
The preponderance of evidence points directly at Ukraine, but the attacks have gone largely unheralded by Kyiv.
They’ve also been played down by Russia — for reasons that, analysts said, include embarrassment that its formidable military is unable to protect the country from being attacked from a foreign location.
Some of the incidents may also have a more mundane explanation, said William Alberque, director of strategy, technology, and arms control at the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies: negligence or corruption in Russia and its armed forces.
“On the one hand, you have to understand that Russia is moving ammunition at scale, so accidents are going to happen,” Alberque told RFE/RL. “But once you get over, what, 22 accidents in 60 days? Then you are also going to be looking at enemy action.”
“Some of it is bravery, some of it is incompetence, some of it is Russian corruption, but let’s not get bogged down in the details,” he said. “The larger picture is that this is incredibly poor Russian planning, incredibly poor Russian execution; they’ve allowed infiltration of their airspace, and by missiles.”
Much more at the link!
Last night in comments commenter Cameron asked if I’d seen a couple of articles/columns/opinion pieces and asked what I thought and if they were legit. I tracked them both back to their sources. The first tracks back to Max Blumenthal’s anti-American agitprop website. You had to read really carefully at the bottom of the post to find that out. Then at Blumenthal’s site you had to expend a lot of work to find the about page that tells you whose site it is. These are themselves red flags. The fact that it was originally published by Blumenthal’s site tells me its agitprop. The second site doesn’t even have an about page, is named for the guy who owns/runs it, but does have a list of regular contributors. One of them is an American “comedian” who was a regular on RT until it was shut down.
Let’s leave it there for tonight.
Your semi daily Patron:
Patron, the heroic dog sniffing for bombs in Ukraine pic.twitter.com/ZD41gwF4PQ
— Insider News (@InsiderNews) April 30, 2022
Your semi daily Chef Jose Andres:
.@WCKitchen way! #ChefsForUkraine we don’t waste time with announcements about what we will do. Of how many meals we will provide….17 million meals@later and millions of # of food delivered, we keep showing up! We show up everyday, in every community in need… https://t.co/y047yAJyDp
— José Andrés (@chefjoseandres) April 30, 2022
.@WCKitchen way! #ChefsForUkraine we don’t waste time with announcements about what we will do. Of how many meals we will provide….17 million meals@later and millions of # of food delivered, we keep showing up! We show up everyday, in every community in need… https://t.co/y047yAJyDp
— José Andrés (@chefjoseandres) April 30, 2022
Open thread!
JanieM
Adam — I first started reading BJ regularly when you were writing the daily reports on the Malheur occupation. This daily reporting on the war is that to the nth degree — I don’t know how you do it, but thank you. Between AL’s covid posts and your Ukraine posts, I feel more well-informed than anyone else I know. (Outside of other BJ readers. :-) I only wish there was no further reason for reporting on either topic.
Carlo Graziani
Another good haul. I particularly like the Putin portrait.
Thanks.
Mike in NC
I read a report online today that most of the conscripts being fed into the Ukrainian meat grinder are not from European Russia but from places like Tuva and Siberia (i.e., Central Asians). Makes it a lot easier for Putin to write them off as cannon fodder.
West of the Rockies
Is there a reliable site that addresses Russian losses? After reading about booby-trapped toys, it would be nice to know, I don’t know, a Russian artillery crew was eliminated. I don’t mean to seem bloodthirsty, but there’s so much rape, dead infants, obliterated hospitals… it is enraging. Did the invaders suffer today?
West of the Cascades
@West of the Rockies: I confess to having watched the video of the artillery attack today that killed the general who commanded the airborne troops that did war crimes in the suburbs northwest of Kyiv four times. Link in kos’s update tonight https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/4/30/2095012/-Ukraine-Update-Russia-is-stuck-and-they-can-t-even-blame-it-on-the-mud
Mallard Filmore
Here is a not-so-heroic dog, but is still fun to watch:
My human is back!
RUMINT until Adam gives his blessing:
BREAKING: Russian Major General Simonov was KILLED
another tweet of the same thing
Unrelated:
in Moscow, “…the detainees were holding invisible posters with anti-government slogans.”
Adam L Silverman
@JanieM: I wish there was no need to write these too! And thank you for the kind words.
West of the Rockies
@West of the Cascades:
That was an explosive damn video…
Good, one less vile idiot ordering the deaths of pregnant people and children.
Adam L Silverman
@Mallard Filmore: I held off on that because I want to see if a legit news outlet verifies it.
Yarrow
Adam, as always thanks for the posts. The Patron and Chef Jose Andres are my favorite parts. I can’t really handle the rest of the awfulness right now. FYI, just sent you an email.
West of the Rockies
@West of the Cascades:
That was an explosive damn video…
Good, one less vile idiot ordering the deaths of pregnant people and children.
Carlo Graziani
The short UKR MOD summary: Russian Ground Forces have preponderance and initiative. UA is blocking.
Short(er) UK summary: The Russians need a miracle.
Outlook: The timing looks perfect to me. The month to come is mud season,during which UA play defence, absorb NATO-grade heavy weapons and train up on them. The Russians flail around on the narrow road net, as their supplies dwindle, their personnel die, their logistics knot up and their strategists plant knives in each other’s backs.
In June the mud dries and it’s ass-kicking season.
Adam L Silverman
@Yarrow: I just replied.
Yarrow
@Adam L Silverman: Got it. Replied.
Major Major Major Major
@Mike in NC: I follow a twitter account that posts little bios of some of the killed soldiers and noticed a week or two ago that yeah they are disproportionately nonwhite.
Jay
Thank you again Adam.
Carl heads to Ukraine on Monday. NGO. Mgmt gave him leave. Carl can barely walk, works in Electrical, worked EOD and UXO for the Engineers, which is why he can barely walk, IED in Helmand.
His wife passed about 7 years ago, his kids are good with it, he’s gonna teach what he knows.
surfk9
@Carlo Graziani: That’s what I’m getting too. Mid June Ukrainian offensive
Adam L Silverman
@Jay: We’ll keep good thoughts.
debbie
I may have to dig out my Instagram login just to get my Patron fix.
egorelick
If about one-quarter of the Russian generals in Ukraine have been killed, is that a higher or lower level of mortality than the troops. On the one hand, command is targeted, but on the other hand, even given the deficiencies of Russian operations, is it reasonable to expect that generals are dying faster than privates?
Carlo Graziani
@Jay: What does he teach?
West of the Rockies
@egorelick:
One would reasonably assume generals are better protected than frontline troops.
11 dead in less than 60 days seems pretty damn high.
L85NJGT
Stitching together main force maneuver units out of broken parts and ordering an advance is a recipe for disaster.
L85NJGT
@West of the Rockies:
Speaking of which…
Did Gerasimov get tossed out a window, with the announcement of his heroic death in Ukraine coming on or about May 9?
Another Scott
@West of the Rockies: Oryx… ( https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop ) sorts and/or has a team that tries to sort military losses. He often posts videos. Recently he’s posted a couple showing drones dropping grenade-like things on russian troops.
E.g.
There’s another video that Oryx posted of some russian soldier doing a live TikTok thing and it not ending well at all for him. So use caution in clicking around there.
Too many examples of FAFO, but such is the terror of war. It’s still rather shocking to me that we’re seeing all of this in near real-time.
HTH a little.
Cheers,
Scott.
West of the Rockies
@Another Scott:
Thank you, Scott. Again, I’m not looking for rivers of blood, but so many reports of mutilated innocents is making me hungry to know they are being avenged.
L85NJGT
Why not a crash re-design those shitty Russian turrets? That doesn’t seem a super complex ( or expensive) build and swap. Re-barrel them in something NATO.
Chetan Murthy
@L85NJGT: Maybe not: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/4/29/2094787/-Turretless-Russian-Tanks
[assuming you’re talking about T-72 turrents]
Jay
@Carlo Graziani:
Carl has 28 years of demining experience, cut short by an Afghanistan deployment.
Chetan Murthy
https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1520644107751809024
eclare
@Chetan Murthy: Wow!
Chetan Murthy
@eclare: Indeed. #3 in the line of succession. But more importantly, boss move, Madame Speaker!
Jay
@L85NJGT:
Soviet/Russian tanks use an autoloader, rather than a loader.
So the ammo is held in a carousel, under the turret floor, not in a “wet locker” with blow out hatches.
So, when there is a hit, the propellant cooks off, the explosive cooks off, the turret leaves the hull.
to “fix” that, means you have to make the whole tank bigger, higher, add another crew member and some kind of bustle/locker for the turret, effecting both turret and gun balance.
eclare
Very much so! Tomatoes? Are you kidding me?
SiubhanDuinne
@Chetan Murthy:
Nice to see that friend of Balloon Juice Adam Schiff was part of the delegation.
JWR
@Chetan Murthy: Thanks for that. I’d been wondering how a drone carrying a smallish charge could just drop said charge on a tank and KA-BOOM! The ‘jack-in-the-box” effect. Who coulda thunk it? (Apparently not the Russians.)
Cameron
Thanks for taking the time to look at those pieces, Adam. I know you’ve already got a full plate and then some.
Warblewarble
We know what Nancy Pelosi is doing in Kyiv, we still don’t know what the rethuglicans were doing in Moscow.
Sally
Seeing the videos of Patron digging in the earth, I do wonder what he is doing. I have some knowledge of EOD specialists and “bomb dogs”. When they find ordinance, the dogs sit. Very still. When a “bomb dog” is observed sitting, everyone freezes. Then the human team moves in to render safe, the mine, IED, mortar, etc, with whatever means they have available / require. No bomb dog would dig.
What Have The Romans Ever Done for Us
Amir Khalid
@What Have The Romans Ever Done for Us:
I suspect that Putin was planning to expand the war before the current invasion of Ukraine exposed the wretched state of Russia’s military. He’s too committed to the fiction that Russia is succeeding in Ukraine to back down on these plans.
Planetjanet
@Chetan Murthy: That video just made my day. What a delegation.
oldster
Good news: airport tarmac is pretty easy to repair.
So, bombing the Odessa airport is a good way to piss off local ethnic Russians who might have been tempted to side with Putin. But it will not affect the course if the war otherwise.
stacib
@What Have The Romans Ever Done for Us: Asking for a friend – do you also say “the” Germany, “the” Italy or “the” China???
oldster
Separate thought:
I remember reading about the strange career of Gerald Bull several decades ago, and wondering why his innovations in artillery shells mattered. (Eg base-bleed shells for longer range.)
It was the year 2001; surely artillery was obsolete? Hadn’t we moved on to stealth fighters and GPS-guided missiles?
Nope. It’s the year 2022, and it turns out that artillery is still the queen of the battlefield. At least in the Russian way of war, and anyone who has to counter it.
Barbara
@stacib: It’s obsolete but it was common usage for a long time. Understood that it evokes the preferred status of Ukraine from the Russian perspective but I doubt if any offense was intended.
Amir Khalid
This seems as good a place as any for me to vent about Malaysia voting against condemning the Russian invasion. (This was in the UN General Assembly.) As Adam reminds us, this war really began in 2014. That year, Russia shot down MH17 over Ukraine, murdering dozens of Malaysians in the process, and began a years-long campaign to pin the blame on Ukraine. That meant Malaysia couldn’t really be a neutral party. When we voted against condemning Russia, we voted against condemning a nation that murdered our own people. Our highfaluting words about the principle of”neutrality” sounded like cowardice.
NotMax
@Amir Khalid
Confused by which vote you refer to, as Malaysia voted yea (albeit reluctantly) on the initial motion in early March to condemn Russia. Hear you loud and clear regarding the watered down and weak reactions since when it comes to bolstering that vote with firm policy.
Interesting piece out of Singapore about the genesis of Malaysia’s stance. You’re much more schooled in picking out what slant there is in it than am I.
Geminid
There was a good article April 29 in the Times of Israel about the hectic first hours of the war, titled “Russians tried twice to storm Zelensky’s compound in early hours of war, aide says.” The article draws from reporting by the AP, Time Magazine, and the Polish newspaper Rzeczpolitica.
The aide, Oleksiy Arestovich, recounted how that night the Ukrainian Army informed Zelensky that Russians had parachuted into Kyiv the with the intent of killing him and his wife. Zelensky and his aides were issued armored vests and automatic weapons, and briefly instructed in their use. Arestovich, who had prior military training, said that by dawn Ukrainians had repelled two Russian assaults on the hastily fortified government compound.
Rzezcpoltica had an interview with Mrs. Zelensky, who with their 17 year old son and 9 year old daughter is staying in an undisclosed location. She described waking up to the sound of explosions. Her husband, who had already dressed, told her, “It’s started.” She has not seen him since except on television.
Amir Khalid
@NotMax:
Not a lot of slant there. I’d say it’s all spot on..
NotMax
@Amir Khalid
Appreciate your taking the time to look at it and giving it your informed backing.
SWMBO
@Geminid:
I think the son is 9 and the daughter is 17.
Geminid
@SWMBO: I’m sure you are right. I take notes, but these facts were from (faulty) memory.
It’s a good article, though. If someone reads it and feels like linking it I would be obliged. I tried but did not succeed.
Geeno
@Sally: I think they’re having him dig so it looks to the ill informed that he’s doing something. People would see a dog just sitting and say “so what – my dog can sit too”.
My first thought, as someone who doesn’t know what bomb dogs really do, was “Isn’t digging at the explosive a really dangerous thing to do?”.
I guess I was right.
charon
@Amir Khalid:
I did not see any mention of Japan (which is largely western-aligned now) in the Fulcrum piece. Do you think anti-Japanese sentiment in SE Asia is a significant factor?
Sally
@Geeno: I guess you are correct. My doggo can sit too, but not very, very still in the middle of a war zone. These dogs are very good boys and girls. And are much adored by their troop.
debbie
@Sally:
You’re talking about a JRT. Patron’s digging is very shallow; maybe, they allow him a bit of digging just to calm him down and back off at the sound of their whistle. ??♀️
Jinchi
I’m completely baffled at the number of Russian soldiers who are basically live-streaming themselves on the battlefield. You’d think after the first few got picked off the rest would learn that they’re broadcasting a target on their own position.
zhena gogolia
I am astounded by what the Ukrainians have been able to do. But at what a cost. For nothing, nothing, no earthly reason.
The Putin portrait is great.
Thank you again, Adam.
zhena gogolia
@Chetan Murthy: Love it!
ETA: BJ’s very own Adam Schiff, shaking hands with Zelenskyy!
Sally
@debbie: Neither bomb dogs nor bomb techs dig. IED’s and mines are often very close to the surface. But I guess it was a publicity shot and he knew he was not on duty and could dig for the camera. So, fair enough. It’s just me getting the hebbie jebbies whenever I see it.
debbie
@Sally:
I’m sure you’re right. I’m amazed that JRT energy can be so controlled. Every one I’ve known has been a wild child!
Another Scott
With the war in Ukraine, Twitter Sherlocks are coming of age
https://p.dw.com/p/4AfRf
Cheers,
Scott.
Alison Rose ???
@Barbara: By now, anyone who cares at all should know not to refer to it that way, though. How long has Ukraine been the top subject in the news? There really isn’t any excuse after 2+ months.
terry chay
@What Have The Romans Ever Done for Us: The most likely reason is to freeze some Ukrainian forces near Odessa.
Jinchi
@What Have The Romans Ever Done for Us: I don’t think the Russians are planning to drain resources by sending soldiers to a new front. They’re trying to open a new front by creating forces in place. They’ll recruit or conscript Transnistrian men, hand them Russian passports and declare them Russian soldiers.
Russia has been trying to get allied forces in the fight since the start with little success. This is just the latest attempt.
I’m sure the grand plan is to join forces by rolling through Odesa. The Transnistrian forces would serve to divide UA defenses and as a pretext for Russia invading Moldova if they actually succeed in taking the city.
Betty
@Barbara: i think we still say The Netherlands. So it isn’t completely unheard of to use “the.” And the French say “Vive la France”. The sensitivity here is understandable of course.
sab
@zhena gogolia: For no earthly reason? Seriously? My husband would sacrifice his lifa and his honor to have his kids safe.
prostratedragon
@sab: I think zg refers to Putin (hock) as the pointless instigator.
The Pale Scot
@Jinchi:
“Transnistrian forces” will have a short half life I think
zhena gogolia
@sab: I meant the Russian-started war.
Everyone is pretty quick to impute the worst motives on here. I guess I’ll go back to staying away from these threads. Read but don’t comment.
Geminid
@The Pale Scot: I imagine that a lot of potential draftees have left Transnistria for Ukraine or Moldova. Transnistria is a very long and skinny quasi-country, and no one lives far from it’s borders.