(Image is the new Ukrainian postage stamp, I found it here)
Let’s start once again in Mariupol. Shortly after last night’s post was published, reports began to come in that the 36th Marine Brigade had broken out of its defensive pocket and had linked up with the Azov Regiment. I tracked the info back to a site I’d never seen and decided to just sit on it rather than update because I wanted to see a legitimate recognized source report it. Here’s one of The Kyiv Independent‘s reporters confirming it:
The most important news from today is that the marines from the 36th Marine Brigade, low on ammunition, were able to breach enemy lines and connect with the Azov Regiment in Mariupol.
I think about them every day.
— Oleksiy Sorokin (@mrsorokaa) April 13, 2022
Additionally, the Georgian Legion, which is fighting for Ukraine as part of their military, is also still intact and engaging the Russians near Mariupol. From The Globe and Mail:
Russia has claimed that more than 1,000 Ukrainian marines have surrendered in the southern city of Mariupol, but there were competing views about whether the devastating seven-week battle for control of the strategic port on the Sea of Azov was continuing.
Ukraine did not confirm the surrender Wednesday and said that two units of its forces still in the city had instead managed to link up. Mamuka Mamulashvili, the commander of the Georgian Legion, a battalion of volunteer fighters, told The Globe and Mail that his unit had troops “near Mariupol” who were still fighting.
Mr. Mamulashvili said he also had friends among the Ukrainian forces holed up in the massive Azovstal steel factory. He said he had spoken to them in recent days and did not believe they would have surrendered.
“I would know,” he said when asked whether the battle for Mariupol had ended, though he would not discuss the number of fighters who were still holding out. “They have not surrendered. There are still Ukrainian army forces and Georgians there.”
The head of Ukraine’s GUR military intelligence agency told The Globe that efforts to resupply the remaining Ukrainian troops in Mariupol were difficult but continuing.
“The situation in Mariupol is the most complicated situation in Ukraine right now, Major-General Kyrylo Budanov said. “Every resupply of the forces which are defending Mariupol is a special operation which demonstrates the heroism of our warriors.”
Kremlin-controlled media have also accused the Georgian Legion of war crimes after a video surfaced last month showing the roadside execution of at least one Russian soldier who was injured and whose hands were tied. Mr. Mamulashvili said Wednesday that the fighters in the video – at least one of whom has been identified as Georgian – were not members of his unit.
He said the Georgian Legion – which consists of about 700 troops from Georgia, along with some other international volunteers – was, like the regular Ukrainian army, redirecting forces previously deployed around Kyiv south, toward Mariupol, now that Russia had withdrawn its army from around the capital. He said Mariupol could still be liberated from Russian control.
“It is possible – and we will do it.”
Much more at the link!
In other important news from the south of Ukraine, Russia’s Black Sea flagship, the Moskva, got itself blowed up real good!
A Russian source is saying the Moskva has sunk and that the explosion was from a Ukrainian Neptun missile strike. Apparently, Ukraine flew a TB2 UCAV to distract the ship while it was targeted by the Neptun. The ship rolled onto its side after the strike.https://t.co/lACtPPJYVF
— Rob Lee (@RALee85) April 14, 2022
You may recall that it was the Moskva that called for the surrender of the Ukrainian Border Service officers on Snake Island who replied that it was to “Go fuck yourself!” Well it did! The Moskva had a crew of 510, there’s no word on how many Russian sailors may have survived, but this was a huge win for the Ukrainians.
Much more after the jump!
The Ukrainian underground seems to have been busy in Melitipol!
"Unknown patriots" from a likely underground resistance movement killed 70 Russian troops, incl Kadyrovites, in occupied Melitopol (Zaporizhzhia Obl) btw 20 Mar-12 Apr: ?? Intelligence
They were killed by knives/guns during night patrolshttps://t.co/UG10s8OPLb
— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) April 14, 2022
Here is President Zelenskyy’s most recent video and appeal:
Without additional weaponry, this war will become an endless bloodbath, spreading misery, suffering, and destruction. Mariupol, Bucha, Kramatorsk – the list will be continued. Nobody will stop Russia except Ukraine with Heavy Weapons. #ArmUkraineNow pic.twitter.com/miSOL5zvuA
— Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) April 13, 2022
He had a very productive phone conversation with President Biden today. Here’s President Biden’s statement regarding the call:
Statement by President JoeBiden on Call with President Zelenskyy and Additional Security Assistance toUkraine
I just spoke with President Zelenskyy and shared with him that my Administration is authorizing an additional $800 million in weapons, ammunition, and other security assistance to Ukraine. The Ukrainian military has used the weapons we are providing to devastating effect. As Russia prepares to intensify its attack in the Donbas region, the United States will continue to provide Ukraine with the capabilities to defend itself.This new package of assistance will contain many of the highly effective weapons systems we have already provided and new capabilities tailored to the wider assault we expect Russia to launch in eastern Ukraine. These new capabilities include artillery systems, artillery rounds, and armored personnel carriers. I have also approved the transfer of additional helicopters. In addition, we continue to facilitate the transfer of significant capabilities from our Allies and partners around the world.The steady supply of weapons the United States and its Allies and partners have provided to Ukraine has been critical in sustaining its fight against the Russian invasion. It has helped ensure that Putin failed in his initial war aims to conquer and control Ukraine. We cannot rest now. As I assured President Zelenskyy, the American people will continue to stand with the brave Ukrainian people in their fight for freedom.
There was a lot of confusion this morning about whether the US would or would not be sending Soviet era leftover Mi 17 helicopters to Ukraine. There was an announcement that the US would be sending them, then there was an announcement that the US would not and people started complaining about how bad this made the administration’s strategic communication look. Below is the explanation for what happened.
NEW: Another US official adds more context –> The helos were initially part of the package. But Kyiv said to take them out because they wanted to inspect them to ensure they'd be useful for their purposes.
But on the call Z said he wanted them, so the helos were put back in.
— Alex Ward (@alexbward) April 13, 2022
Too much of this stuff is being done in public!
The US is considering sending a top level administration official to Kyiv to meet with President Zelenskyy. From Politico:
The Biden administration is holding internal discussions about sending a high-level official to Kyiv to show further support to Ukraine, two U.S. officials told POLITICO.
No decision on the potential visit has yet been made as deliberations continue inside the White House. President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris remain candidates to represent the U.S. in the Ukrainian capital, though it’s far more likely that a Cabinet member like Secretary of State Antony Blinken or Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin will go, the officials said.
Both Biden and Harris have recently traveled to Poland, a frontline NATO country that borders Ukraine.
A U.S. official visiting Kyiv would be the latest in a parade of Western figures meeting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. In recent weeks, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson made the trip, while the leaders of Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland met Wednesday with Zelenskyy in the capital.
If the administration decides to send someone to Kyiv, it is understood that there won’t be an announcement in advance, due to security reasons. The timing of any potential trip is uncertain and officials cautioned that it may not happen at all due to the fluid nature of the war.
The trip would be highly symbolic for both Washington and Kyiv. The U.S. would affirm its commitment to Ukraine’s resistance against Russia’s invasion, while Ukraine would get to host a top American official in the capital, just weeks after forcing Russian troops to retreat.
More at the link.
Here is the British MOD’s assessment for today:
And here is the British MOD’s updated map for today:
There’s still not a lot of new movement. We’re in the hurry up and wait stage as both sides prepare for the Donbas campaign.
Here’s an interesting analysis from Professor Sun Zhe, who is currently at Columbia University’s CIPA. This is a machine translation using Apple’s translation protocols Commenter YY_Sima_Qian provided a link to a proper translation in comment #6:
The Russian-Ukrainian war has brought human society to a critical moment of historical turning point. Considering the special background of the debate about “system contest” triggered by global epidemic prevention, what kind of strategic judgments and policy choices China makes is related to the national destiny and the “destiny of mankind”. the future of the community.
Domestic strategic scholars often use the phrase “Those who do not seek the overall situation are not enough to seek a region, and those who do not seek the world are not enough for a certain time” to talk about international changes. I think the current Russian-Ukrainian conflict has at least four direct impacts on the global pattern:
First, the judgment of “rising in the east and falling in the west”, which was popular in China in the past few years, is basically invalid. This is mainly to say that developing countries did not “rise of the pack” as described in “The Post-American World”, or that a few countries failed to embark on the track of sustainable development after rising. On the contrary, like Countries such as Russia, South Africa, and Brazil have declined in national strength in recent years, and developing countries are less willing to cooperate collectively, and their overall influence is constantly weakening. Leaving aside the original cause of the Russian-Ukrainian war, the final result of this war is, from a high probability, huge “Venezuelaization” and “sunk costs” of the Russian economy. On the other hand, developed countries represented by the United States have adjusted their diplomatic rhythm extremely quickly, showing great “strategic sympathy and strategic resonance ability” for Ukraine. The ideology of pro-Russian and Ukrainian ideology draws a line, the new strategic pattern of the world is roughly “the dust has settled”, and the political and economic coordinates and development potential of different national groups in the “big chess game” are gradually becoming clear.
Second, due to the dual impact of the Russian-Ukrainian war and the epidemic, the global trend of “economic disconnection” is more obvious. This is mainly to say that adverse forces such as fragmentation of the global market, restrictions on cross-border and cross-border investment, and increased resistance to technology transfer will delay or even put on hold the already difficult process of economic globalization. Originally, when the United States and some developed countries formulate policies such as climate change, investment, and the digital economy, they have begun to emphasize labor rights, environmental protection, and the free flow of data and other values, forming “value barriers” to some extent. Let the role of the value factor in world economic relations become more prominent, and the economic “value barriers” that “take Russia as the boundary” will not only not disappear, but also the all-round and high-intensity sanctions against Russia will further aggravate international energy and capital. and market differentiation and contraction.
Third, the global “governance deficit” leads to a “peace deficit”, which is mainly reflected in the state organizations formed after World War II and the existing global cooperation mechanism, which not only failed to help developing countries implement more effective internal governance, but also failed to prevent local wars and The outbreak of regional conflicts, even during wars, has caused huge controversy over the principles and rules of international humanitarian intervention. How to abandon the old thinking of zero-sum game during the Cold War, abandon the law of the jungle of the law of the jungle, and seek peace through cooperation, and the concept of joint consultation and joint construction of global peace governance is still a huge challenge to the operation of the future international system. The biggest enlightenment of the Russia-Ukraine conflict to the world is that in order to achieve long-term world peace, all countries must insist on resolving disputes by peaceful means, oppose the willful use of force or threat of force, oppose provoking troubles and intensifying conflicts for selfishness, and oppose beggar-thy-neighbor, beggar-thy-neighbor, Benefit others. Regrettably, the performance of the United Nations in this regard has been disappointing, and coordination among major powers has been characterized by inefficiency or even failure, and people must rethink how to build a more effective collective security mechanism.
Fourth, the most controversial outcome of the Russian-Ukrainian war may be that the role of China and the United States has become more prominent, and Russia’s influence on the global political stage has declined, and Russia has gradually been eliminated in the competition for great powers. Some American scholars have used terms such as “neither enemy nor friend” and “hostile partner” to describe the strategic competition between China and the United States. Although it is not completely accurate, the competition between China and the United States in “all areas” and “all regions” will indeed dominate global politics. Different combinations of power. In the process of “confrontation, cooperation and competition” between China and the United States, some countries that were originally in the “middle zone” have re-aligned or “returned to the team”. On the other hand, while emphasizing strategic autonomy and unwilling to become a victim of the game of great powers, most countries have great concerns about whether to strengthen friendly cooperation with China. The U.S.’s efforts to win over its allies and point at China and Russia will undoubtedly have different impacts on the foreign policy choices of countries around the world.
It is worth mentioning that the “bipartisan consensus” formed by the U.S. government and opposition, that is, China’s peaceful development also poses a substantial challenge to the United States, is actually an “inner demon” of the United States toward China. “It is easy to overcome the city, but difficult to attack the heart.” Whether China and the United States can handle each other’s relations well, “it is a question of the century that both countries must answer.” It should be said that the strategic competition between China and the United States is long-term, and the idea of deciding whether to win or lose by means of a “decisive battle” in the short term has no historical and realistic basis. Both China and the United States are conducting difficult national explorations in their own countries, so the basis of the competition between the two countries is actually in the handling of their respective domestic affairs. From this perspective, the real “great exploration lies in the innermost exploration”.
Here’s an interesting thread about the socio-economic drivers of the demographics of the Russian military (she posts some pictures of Russian soldiers, I’m not embedding them below, you can click across on the first tweet in the thread and see them if you like):
What do we know about background and social position of #Russian soldiers, who are deployed in #Ukraine? BBC analysed publicly available info about 1083 Russian servicemen, who were killed in action. Here are some tendencies were found out. Thread
— Olga Ivshina (@oivshina) April 12, 2022
- Regions that reported the highest number of the losses are so called depressed or semi depressed, ie areas with high unemployment and a low standard of living. In Dagestan (93 reported deaths) or Buryatia (53 rep. deaths) it’s very hard to find a job (let alone well paid job)
- In #Dagestan unemployment rate is 15% (compared to average 4% in #Russia), average salary – 400 USD. If one joins army as private they can around 500 USD, but army also provide them food, uniform and a place to live. So a bigger part of the salary remains in your pocket
- During “special operations” salary of a private infantryman of Russian army can reach 2.200 USD because of bonuses. Or even 2.600 USD if you are a sergeant or corporal. This is huge money for those living in the regions
- 20% of officially confirmed losses come from 10 Russia’s depressed regions (plus Dagestan). If we add numbers from semi-depressed regions – it will be roughly 80% of all losses reported by Russian official sources (ie local officials, media and schools).
- Striking example – there are zero(!) reports about military casualties from Moscow. Even Ukrainian sources never mentioned anyone from Moscow city, who was captured or killed in Ukraine.
- It can have 2 explanations: 1) there are very few military units in Moscow itself 2) people from the capital don’t join military that often. But people from Russian regions do. Many males from small towns and villages see army as the only social lift available
- Russian army is an important employer for people from places where it is almost impossible to earn money. “Joining the army gives them a stable salary and sense security” – experts told BBC.
- This is Mikhail Garmaev from Siberia. He finished school,went to college, dropped out, joined the army (as a conscript).Then returned home, got a job(installing alarm systems).But soon he returned to army (becoming a prof soldier. On March 6 he was killed near Kiev. Typical story
- And there are many similar stories if you read biographies of Russian servicemen killed in Ukraine (especially non-officers). Young males in Russian regions study, then try and fail to find a stable job that will allow them to provide for their families. What is left? the Army
- Coffins with Russian soldiers KIA in #Ukraine started coming to other countries of the former USSR. We know at least about 2 funerals in #Kyrgyzstan, 2 in #Tajikistan and 1 in breakaway region of South Ossetia (part of Georgia controlled by Russia since 2008)
- All of them were technically citizens of Russia, who joined the Army. Egemberdi Dorboev lived in Siberia with his mother. He joined the Army in November. 4 months later he was deployed to Ukraine and killed in action
- In early 2000s people from some post-Soviet countries aspired to join the Russian army, because it was a quick way to obtain Russian citizenship. Now there is no such path officially. But some loopholes remain. And again army is almost only social lift accessible for them
- “Those migrants who didn’t get good education and didn’t find a better job in Russia find army career quite attractive. And strong propaganda adds to it”- explains human rights activist Svetlana Gannushkina.
- With all that in mind – some aspects of Russian soldiers’ behaviour in Ukraine look not surprising at all. END<<
Since we’ve spent a fair amount of time focusing on the south of Ukraine lately, here’s an interesting article in The New Yorker about the preparations being undertaken in Odesa in advance of the Donbas campaign.
The Ukrainian port city of Odesa sits atop a labyrinth of catacombs—technically, limestone quarries—which constitute perhaps the world’s largest network of urban tunnels, extending ten stories deep and tracing some fifteen hundred miles beneath the streets. Ever since the nineteenth century, as stonecutters mined the passages to build the city, locals have regarded these voids as a realm of mystery and peril. They have been a setting for both banditry—traffickers smuggled stolen goods through the quarries; fugitives dodged pursuers in the darkness—and heroism. During the Second World War, when the city was placed under siege by the Nazis, Soviet rebels used the tunnels as a secret headquarters. These days, a mysterious crack may open in the sidewalk, and Odesans will experience a sudden awareness of the hollows beneath their feet. But very few ever venture beneath the surface.
Roman Mauser, a thirty-one-year-old electrical engineer from Odesa, began exploring the catacombs as a teen-ager, climbing down metal hatches in the street and spending hours wandering the passageways by headlamp. He discovered a world of forgotten infrastructure: drainage systems, moldering command centers, Soviet bomb shelters. Alongside a team of fellow-explorers, he opened a tour business where he guided people through the catacombs. On YouTube, he launched a channel on which he documented his expeditions. Episodes include a journey through a lattice of drain pipes and an investigation of mysterious inscriptions recorded on catacomb walls.
In early March, as the Russian navy amassed a flotilla of warships in Odesa’s harbor, Mauser’s hobby became a wartime enterprise. Residents had become alarmed by the city’s critical shortage of functional air-raid shelters. When Russian fighters dropped bombs on Kyiv, thousands of residents took cover in the city’s metro system. Odesa does not have a metro. Russia was poised to lob cruise missiles into the city; in the event of a heavy assault, Odesans would need someplace to wait out the bombardment. Throughout the city, military-age citizens were volunteering to man checkpoints and build barricades. Mauser, round-faced and bespectacled, with a poet’s bearing, joined dozens of civilian explorers in an effort to bolster Odesa’s underground defenses.
On one of his first missions, he trekked with a band of men through a warren of limestone tunnels beneath the historic neighborhood of Moldavanka. Sweeping their flashlight beams through the dark, the group arrived at the door of an old bomb shelter. Peering inside, they found rusted walls, piles of rubble, and puddles of stagnant water. The shelter had been built just after the Second World War, when Ukraine was part of the Soviet Union; nearly a hundred feet beneath street level, it could protect hundreds of occupants from even the most forceful air strike.
Mauser and the others worked for days. They cleared debris, painted walls, installed makeshift benches and cots, and stockpiled water. Mauser ran electrical cables through the passageways and rigged lights along the ceiling. Up on street level, the explorers met with residents from the neighborhood and instructed them on how to take cover. For most Odesans, Mauser told me, the catacombs had always been a distant, almost imaginary place; now the tunnels were entering the city’s consciousness in the most urgent way. “We need to prepare people,” he said. “In any attack on our city, the catacombs can save us.”
Much, much more at the link!
Remind me not to piss off any Ukrainian women. Behold Mara, the Ukrainian goddess of death and rebirth of nature as winter gives way to spring!
Warning!!!! Simulated violence and bloodshed!!!!!
Орки біснують від цього відео ?? pic.twitter.com/RhhE8ksjju
— Pilot SamolyotОFF ?? (@pilotmsv) April 10, 2022
We’ll finish with your semi-daily Chef Andres!
By end of the week we @WCKitchen will pass 10 million meals served in Ukraine & other countries—and 6 million pounds of food distributed! This is only possible because of our amazing local teams, 1000s of volunteers & YOU continuing to support #ChefsForUkraine ?? Thank you!! ?? https://t.co/pFlIJh0JiQ pic.twitter.com/lrKOD8o82Y
— José Andrés (@chefjoseandres) April 13, 2022
Adapting to the situation & need…This is the @WCKitchen way! We also have dehydrated food packs freshly made locally that you just add hot water to…perfect for evacuation trains & bomb shelters. We will keep moving quick to help feed the people of Ukraine! https://t.co/Jb8zXFr5SL
— José Andrés (@chefjoseandres) April 13, 2022
Open thread!
Sebastian
Thank you thank you thank you Adam! I really needed to hear this.
SiubhanDuinne
I watched that video yesterday. I’m not convinced the bloodshed is simulated.
//
Adam L Silverman
@Sebastian: You’re welcome.
Geoduck
@SiubhanDuinne: I’ve seen claims that Russian TV is throwing a FoxNews-style hissy fit about that video, portraying it as proof that all Ukrainians are soulless killers.
SiubhanDuinne
Said it before, will almost certainly say it again: This year’s Nobel Peace Prize needs to go to Chef José Andrés and his crew, or the times are really out of joint.
YY_Sima Qian
Adam,
Here is a better translation of the article by Sun Zhe that you quoted & linked to.
https://inf.news/ne/military/a176b3eb75460e2548d3b8c1780d4c76.html
SiubhanDuinne
@Geoduck:
Hadn’t heard that, but not the teeniest surprised.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
Interesting, so these guys have the education for a US style high tech military if the Russian government could be bothered.
Jackie
When I first heard about Moskva‘s mishap, I was stunned. Then elated! Especially being announced the same day the Snake Island official stamp is available! KARMA!
lollipopguild
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: Russia could have a much better military if the person who owns the country wanted one. I get the impression that everything that the “gov” in russia does is designed to steal money for the handful of people at the top of the pyramid.
VeniceRiley
The fact that Eussia tried to passive voice the Moskva explosion as not the result of a mussel at all … many hours after reports that it was hit and heavily damaged, is hilarious to me.
Meanwhile, Poles be trolling the Russian Embassy with “loot.” Piles of old tv and shoes and womens underthings.
ps. On topic of bonuses, telegrams and leak phone convos suggest that is not getting down to the rank and file. Only base pay is arriving in their accounts. And command is raiding their care packages sent from home.
Kelly
@VeniceRiley: We are clumsy idiots that blew up our own ship is so much stronger than Ukraine hit our ship.
Cameron
They’re certainly conducting this operation in a traditional manner: poor people fighting rich people’s wars.
Mallard Filmore
Some gallows humor/propaganda … a protest.
https://twitter.com/avalaina/status/1514194493687447556
Another Scott
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: Galeev argues in one of his long threads that the Tsars and Putin could not tolerate a professional, popular, competent military because it would necessarily be a threat to their hold on power. (And that the only force capable of removing him now are the police forces.)
It seems to me that Russia’s military has cultivated a reputation for terror and cruelty because they recognize that they are a hollow force. They are finding that the Ukrainians know that they have nothing to lose, and they have competent allies, so terror doesn’t cover the Russian failures anymore.
Putin is in a very dangerous position now. He’s reaping the whirlwind, finally.
Cheers,
Scott.
YY_Sima Qian
BTW, the Chinese proverb that Sun Zhe quoted at the beginning of his article:
不谋全局者不足以谋一域、不谋万世者不足以某一时
It literally translates as “Those who do not strategize the whole are not qualified to strategize any single domain, those who do not strategize for all time are not qualified to strategize for any moment.”
CaseyL
Many thanks for this roundup, Adam. A bit of hope amid the dread!
I do wonder how much of the public indecision and apparent fumbling of arms requests is real, and how much is tactical psyops: keep Russia from knowing exactly what we’re sending, and keep them uncertain as to what kinds of weapons (i.e., “offensive” or “defensive”) we’re sending.
Regarding sinking the Moskva – I read somewhere that the missile (a Neptun) which sank it was the only one of its kind Ukraine had…? I don’t understand that, since Neptuns are Ukraine-built. (Though by now they might lack the raw materials to build more of them.) Anyone know anything more about that?
Calouste
@VeniceRiley: Solid recipe for mutiny: bad pay, bad food, bad prospects.
Another Scott
@CaseyL: France24:
I haven’t seen anything about their inventory.
HTH a little.
Cheers,
Scott.
Kattails
Hummm, I wonder whose neck the actress playing Mara was envisioning under her scythe, in order to give such a convincing performance. (those headdresses are amazing)
Jen Psaki could wear one of those, she’s her own badass. The response to the reporter asking if Biden’s remarks were preplanned–“I don’t think we should misunderstand who he is and where he stands on the totem pole which is at the top”.
Somebody’s comment about the flagship: “heroic cruiser Moskva promoted to submarine”
Sister Golden Bear
Russian warship has been promoted to submarine for bravely destroying Ukrainian missiles with its hull.
Calouste
The Russians themselves said that they evacuated the complete crew of the Moskva. I’d assume that means that even if it still afloat it’s pretty much FUBAR, because warships are designed and crews are trained to be able to handle fires on board, it’s the nature of the business, and apparently this one is too dangerous.
Talking about ships, the latest Russian mega yacht seizure happened in Fiji today. Another place on this planet where the oligarchs aren’t safe.
BeautifulPlumage
Ukrainians repairing captured Russian equipment (apologies if this has already been posted):
https://mobile.twitter.com/mdmitri91/status/1513614248978567175
VeniceRiley
@Calouste: ah the report on that is at thedailybeast.com
Kelly
@Calouste: I suppose a well trained, disciplined crew could abandon a burning ship, in the middle of the night during a storm with no loses. But this is a Russian ship.
Martin
Adam, I’m seeing murmurs about sending Reapers to Ukraine. Seen anything like that? That seems like a significant step-up because it would also necessitate equipping them with suitable munitions for it.
BeautifulPlumage
“Ukrainian soldier dismantled the Russian Orlan drone, debunking the Russian drone myth.”
https://mobile.twitter.com/Ninja998998/status/1513420781073489922?cxt=HHwWhICjudKL4IAqAAAA
BeautifulPlumage
Maersk Shipping leaving Russia
https://mobile.twitter.com/mbk_center/status/1514313609463189511?cxt=HHwWjsC-qYyN9oMqAAAA
Adam L Silverman
@Martin: It was in last night’s post.
I’m going to have to start giving quizzes…
Roger Moore
@lollipopguild:
Maybe, but there are powerful reasons beyond graft for Russian leaders not to want a military that’s too well run. Fear of a coup is real and justified, and a powerful, well-run military is a lot more likely to launch a coup than a disorganized one that’s given to infighting.
Roger Moore
@CaseyL:
It sounds as if the Neptune is a very new design that has only just started production. It may very well be true that the ones used against the Moskva were the only ones in service; it’s that new. It’s not like it would be the first time in the history of warfare that a country used weapons as fast as they came off the assembly line. An obvious example is that Little Boy and Fat Man were the only nuclear bombs in the US arsenal at the time they were used. It would have been something like a month or two before another was available.
Medicine Man
@Calouste: They all bought yachts but didn’t get an island lair inside a volcano. Their mistake I guess.
Adam L Silverman
@YY_Sima Qian: Thanks, I just updated it up top.
Fair Economist
The Russians would not have abandoned the Moskva unless they thought it would sink fairly quickly.
I also don’t see how the Ukrainians could have reported first if it was an accident (which the Russian announcement doesn’t claim, it just says the cause of the fire is underinvestigation.)
Adam L Silverman
@Medicine Man: Rookies!
bjacques
@YY_Sima Qian: Thanks for this. That article is easier to understand (is that a Sun Tzu quote?) and there’s a lot of meat in it, especially about the US and China still trying to define themselves, or maybe find the direction in which they may evolve. Speaking of which, yesterday there was a great Twitter thread about the Ukrainian government being largely decentralized, by tradition, giving rise to their capacity for superior capacity for initiative on the ground compared to Russia. Maybe it’s peculiar to Ukraine, if it was historically starved of infrastructure above that needed to plunder its resources (I hope G&T can tell me if this is true or I’m talking out of my ass). If not, might this ethos get more attention from the rest of the world as another model for governance? In peacetime, of course, this can also be a recipe for chaos and paralysis, of course, but Rojava, similarly organized though much smaller, has also managed to hang together and militarily punch above its weight.
Roger Moore
@Calouste:
Sailors are trained to fight fires, but that doesn’t mean they’re capable of doing it when the time comes. Fire fighting and damage control are some of the things that make the difference between OK and great navies. The Russian navy is supposed to have somewhat better professionalism than the army, but they aren’t up to Western standards.
ISTR that Russian ships also tend to be less survivable than their western equivalents. The Moskva was a good example of this. If you look at pictures, you can see they put their missiles right on the deck, and they pretty much cover it. The missiles were in armored launchers, but if they were hit by something big enough to set one of the missiles off despite that armor, it could very easily cause a chain reaction that would doom the ship. American designers work incredibly hard to keep that kind of thing from happening, but the Russian designers seem to have built around the idea that the ship only needed to last long enough to launch its missiles; anything beyond that was a bonus.
Calouste
@Kelly: Indeed somewhat doubtful, but from the pictures up top it looks like they were pretty close to shore, which should help. Anyway, to clarify, my earlier comment wasn’t as much about the Russian claim that they evacuated all crew, as it was about the implicit admission in that statement that they abandoned the ship.
Adam L Silverman
@CaseyL: @Another Scott: @Roger Moore: These are land based. They’re fired from a battery. The Ukrainians had only manufactured one battery – launcher, missiles, etc – before they were reinvaded. They managed to keep the battery safe, move it into place, and use it successfully today. So it’s not that they have one Neptune missile. It’s they have one Neptune battery.
Hkedi [Kang T. Q.]
@Adam L Silverman: Interesting that they have only one battery. Well the Ukrainians definitely got a big military ROI with that system.
Definitely a good day in the Ukrainian war for survival for the good guys. In the fog of war, that’s about the best you can get.
Kelly
@Calouste: I’d read the Russian release earlier. I’m mocking them not you:-)
Martin
@Adam L Silverman: Ah, was late to your post last night and only skimmed it. Quizzes not a bad idea. Students are getting lazy.
Thanks for the excellent updates.
Adam L Silverman
@Martin: Tyler Rogoway has a good thread on what the Reapers would and would not be good for if provided to the Ukrainians. You may want to take a look.
prostratedragon
@SiubhanDuinne: Overdue, in my book.
Martin
@Roger Moore: My dad was a submariner. Lot of training in flooding rooms and putting out fires. Lot of training.
YY_Sima Qian
The outwardly impressive but long in the tooth ex-Soviet Slava class cruiser Moskva getting sunk by a Ukrainian sneak attack utilizing brilliant tactics & maximizing limited resources is really the whole war to date in a nutshell, right down to the fatal blow being ammo explosion due to poor training/maintenance/design.
As an aside, the Russian Navy’s surface fleet has born the brunt of the post-Soviet hard times. Its shipyards can only build light frigates & corvettes, & have to pack them to the gills w/ missiles & other weaponry. Russia used the oil windfall of the aughts & teens to “modernize” the surface fleet’s major combatants (the Kirovs & the Slavas), but the electronics & radars remain less than the state of the art, & the air defense weaponry (surface to air missiles & close-in weapons systems) has always been a weakness. The AK-630 gatling cannons used for CWIS on the Slavas have low firing rate & low muzzle velocity, not really suited for the role.
The Ukrainian Neptune AShMs are sub-sonic w/ a non-stealthy shape, it should not have really threatened a flotilla w/ modern radars & air defenses unless used in large numbers. The warhead size at 150 kg is on the smaller side. Even 2 hits should not have been fatal to a cruiser the size of the Moskva (mission kill more likely), but an ammo explosion caused by fire points to very sub-par damage control, & likely shortcoming in the Soviet era design.
The Russian Navy did manage to modernize its impressive (in theory) fleet of nuclear fast attack & ballistic missile submarines. However, they are not useful in the Ukrainian theater, & given the performance of the other branches of the Russian military to date, not sure how well they would actually perform in a high intensity conflict.
Martin
@Adam L Silverman: Thanks, I just looked at that.
Ukraine seems to be doing well by, in many cases, not doing what Russia might expect of them.
I wonder about operations like dropping the Kerch Strait bridge. A drone with that kind of range doesn’t need to overfly the battlefield – it can swing around the Black Sea and I wonder if Russia could intercept it given their limited operations there.
Mai Naem mobile
I wonder who drew the short straw in Putin’s staff to inform him of the Moskva’s sinking or did they just let him find out from Ukrainian media reporting. He’s got to have blown his top.
bjacques
@Martin: my mother was a submariner. Fine work they do. Fine work.
NotMax
Blurting the pièces calmes out loud.
YY_Sima Qian
@bjacques: The quote is Sun Tzuian, but is actually from a Han Chinese scholar-official at the end of the Qing Empire, as it was teetering on collapse, a quote from his proposal to move the imperial court from Peking to central China (in Hubei Province), because Beijing was exposed & indefensible from attack from sea from the east & vulnerable from encroachment from land from the northwest. A capital in central China is less vulnerable, but also enables greater oversight/control over far flung regions of the empire such as Tibet, Xinjiang & Yunnan, parts or whole of which were coveted by British, Russian & French Empires. Moving the capital was a huge deal, & must take into account considerations for governing all of China, for posterity, hence the quote.
Chetan Murthy
@NotMax:
she seems nice.
Sloane Ranger
Thanks for the update Adam. In light of the Marines joining up with the Azov Battalion, I wonder if all the talk of them surrendering/ being ready to surrender was a psyops to take the Russians off their guard a bit, allowing them to punch through?
Also, any news about the Russian warship heading in Finland’s direction?
Ruckus
@lollipopguild:
I get the impression that everything that the “gov” in russia does is designed to steal money for the handful of people at the top of the pyramid.
It really should be more than an impression. Many people can’t get a job worth getting up for and vova is one of, if not the richest men in the world. He didn’t get that way by any positive method, like say making a better toothbrush, or a better country.
Ruckus
@Cameron:
No use trying to rewrite the history of the world and warfare.
Ruckus
@Roger Moore:
Calouste is right and so are you. If you set a fire near a munitions locker or fuel tank that may make fighting it untenable. If electrical generation was hit that would effect fire fighting pumps. And that doesn’t account for how much actual damage was done. But telling me that all 510 sailors got off the ship is beyond bullshit. You hit one well enough to sink it that fast there are going to be people in the way. This was a bigger ship than I sailed on, and newer. I was stationed on a guided missile destroyer about 100 feet shorter and 200 fewer crew and I can tell you there really, really, really isn’t much of a safe place to be if a missile hit well enough to sink it as fast as it was reported and if it caused everyone left alive to abandon ship in such a short time.
different-church-lady
@NotMax:
Hard to address horrors when you don’t think they’re horrors.
The Pale Scot
That’s fine until one of them sazs “I want your shit, you will submit”
Uncle Cosmo
@Jackie: Begging for a companion stamp now: Identical except ship on its side, burning furiously. Maybe a helpful caption. (How do you say “fucked around and found out” in Ukrainian? Or Russian?)
Geminid
On Monday the Guardian published a story about Iran transferring arms to Russia. Yesterday Ukrainian News and others reported on a phone call between Ukainian Foreign Minister Kuleba and Iranian FM Abdollahian in which the Iranian denied the Guardian’s story. Kuleba took him at his word:
Kuleba went on to thank Iran for the medical team Iran has sent to his country, and said he had requested Iran’s FM, who will visit Moscow soon, to urge Russia to end it’s attacks on civilians and withdraw it’s troops from Ukraine.
EZSmirkzz
Good morning Adam,
On a lighter note;
I first saw this at attrition dot org in the early -mid 90s, but SEO has it with LAPD, JSYK YMMV.
Have a good day, y’all
Warblewarble
LOL ,Ukraine goes postal on Moskva.
Booger
@Warblewarble: Perfect.
debbie
What a pleasure reading this post. Thanks, Adam. I’m so happy the marines escaped and I hope Mara will be very thorough.
debbie
More good news!
wetzel
@lollipopguild: I think people underestimate the infrastructure of America’s defense establishment. People don’t understand the depth of knowledge in a place like Georgia Tech. There are fellows walking around that campus that see in radar.
lowtechcyclist
@NotMax:
So she’s perfectly OK with Russian soldiers torturing, raping, and murdering Ukrainians, and turning their cities into rubble. And once the fighting stops, we should let bygones be bygones.
What a horrible excuse for a human being.
Grrr. Argh.
Raven
@wetzel: When I worked there the people seemed like they were Radar. . . O’Reilly!
Betty Cracker
Commenters of a certain age may appreciate this:
oldster
Reports on status of Moskva are still widely divergent at 2p central Europe time/ 8a east coast time.
Many sources (inter alia the Lithuanian defense minister) saying it sank. Russia saying it’s being towed to port.
I think the onus is on Russia to show us a floating ship, rather than on the Ukrainians to show us a sunken one.
In any case, even the Russian account tells us that the ship is out of commission for years, if not for good. Perhaps they can salvage any missiles that were not destroyed. But it’s not likely.
By all accounts, a huge blow to the Russian Navy. A huge victory for Ukraine — and for freedom.
(A quick and inexpert perusal of wiki suggests that this is among the five largest ships in the Russian Navy, including at number 1 a carrier that sometimes needs to be towed. Then two battle cruisers. Then two cruisers, oops, now just one. Can anyone more knowledgeable check me on this?)
Geminid
@wetzel: “I’m a Rambling Wreck with Doppler Effect.”
wetzel
@Raven: The perfection of the engineer as a human archetype through the ordeal of ten thousand problem sets. Squinting their eyes, trying to find you through the bottle thick glasses, they are very beautiful.
oldster
Damage to Moskva is also damage to Russian prestige, influence, and arms sales. Who will buy a warship from Russia now? They won’t be able to give them away.
I mean, look at the way their armored vehicles have performed. If someone offered me a T-72, I’d say tanks but no tanks.
Raven
@wetzel: I proudly displayed my UGA Diploma on my office wall at 10th and Hemphill!
Uncle Cosmo
@Geminid: ”… and a helluvan engineer!” :^D
Geminid
@Uncle Cosmo: My Atlanta friend’s son went to Georgia Tech and double-majored in food process engineering and business. I think Matt intended to get a job with Coca Cola, and after one job and Master’s degree he did.
wetzel
@Raven: That’s cool. 10th and Hemphill. One foot in mid-town and one foot in down-town. Hope you’re not commuting from Kennesaw!!
My daughter’s at UGA. That school has changed a lot. It’s a lot harder to get into UGA then it used to be. Today’s UGA students just walk around with ear-buds and stare at their phones. UGA campus was a lot more fun in the 1980’s. Spent a summer up there. The days of Love Tractor.
Athens these days has become a mecca for GA homeless. Atlanta is brutal on the homeless. Now there’s a tent city the size of Cairo, GA in the middle of Athens, if you follow Thomas Rd out of downtown past the Standard (one of the new high rise apts) and then down below the overpass, you will find a huge homeless encampment in a several hundred acre wilderness area. It’s just heart-breaking. Tents up and down the hills in every direction into the woods. There must be several thousand people living there.
People think the police are diverting game day traffic to get people out of downtown more quickly. At Thomas and Dougherty, they send you back downtown The Athens police keep everybody downtown longer to prevent visitors from knowing what’s on the other side of that overpass.
trnc
Can we get a stamp made that says “Russian Agent Donald, Go Fuck Yourself?”
Jackie
@Uncle Cosmo: Knowing the Ukrainians – that’s exactly what they’ll do!?
Feathers
The Ukrainians should create a $100ish value stamp intended for overseas collectors. Could probably find their postal system for quite a while.
@VeniceRiley: If the sinking of the Moskva was achieved by a Ukrainian mussel, I am even more impressed by the nation’s ingenuity and patriotic mollusks willing to make the ultimate sacrifice. (Apologies. That’s one of the best autocorrect errors I’ve seen in a while.)
(((Spadizzly)))
@Uncle Cosmo:
Поебался навколо і дізнався.
or in the invaders’ language
Поебался вокруг и узнал.
Miss Bianca
@Betty Cracker:
I certainly appreciated it!
Timill
@oldster: Looking at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_Russian_Navy_ships
it was one of the six biggest.
Carrier: Kuznetsov (refit)
Kirov NBC: Admiral Nakhimov (refit)
Kirov NBC: Piotr Velikiy (in commission)
Slava Cruiser: Moskva (sunk?)
Slava Cruiser: Admiral Ustinov (in commission)
Slava Cruiser: Varyag (in commission)
So the Russians are down to 3 large (over 10 000 tons) warships in commission now.
They have 10 7 500 ton destroyers (6 in commission) and then you’re into the frigates.
oldster
@Timill:
Thanks, Timill!
Latest reports suggest that the ship is incapacitated but not sunk, under tow to Sebastopol but not able to play any role in the rest of the war.
That’s the outcome that matters militarily; an outright sinking would have been more satisfying, but knocking it out of the war is what really matters.
Another Scott
@Betty Cracker: [chef’s-kiss]
Cheers,
Scott.
Raoul Paste
@Mallard Filmore: OMG
Chief Oshkosh
@Raven:
I knew you worked at Sublime!
charon
Detailed writeup here, found via Kos:
https://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/why-russias-navy-ukraine-war-doomed-or-irrelevant
charon
@charon:
Link to the longer piece:
https://realcontextnews.com/ukraine-will-easily-or-destroy-or-sideline-russias-navy-with-game-changing-anti-ship-missiles/
texasdoc
@NotMax: Very late to the thread, but this statement from Marine Lepen about her foreign policy goals if she becomes president of France, makes her sound like a French Trump. Surely the French won’t go for that??
lee
I believe the US DoD has stated that the Moskva is still floating.
It is probably out of combat operations until/if repaired.
I guess UA could use another missile to finish the job, but I’m not sure that would be worth it.
PJ
@texasdoc: @texasdoc: The US went for it, the Brits went for it with Brexit, why not the French?
Another Scott
AlJazeera – Maxar Technologies satellite photo of Moskva in port in Crimea.
Cheers,
Scott.
Elie
Dear Adam,
I have not written to you how much I deeply appreciate your hard work and research to inform us of this situation. It has been essential for me to read to keep up with this. Thank you, thank you, thank you for your incredible analysis and the motivation to keep it up through thick and thin…
oldster
Russia officially confirms that the Moskva sank ( via Tass).
Their story: it sank in a storm while under tow after an accidental fire. Nothing to do with Ukrainian missiles.
That’s obvious bullshit: it sank both after and because of the successful Ukrainian missile strike.
But it may take a few days to find out how soon after the strike it sank. Russia is clearly trying to pretend that it was most of a day later. That would give the sailors plenty of time to get off. The Lithuanian report that it rolled and sank right away would produce many more casualties.
In either case: Ukraine sank the Moskva. That is a cause for celebration. Let’s hope they sink the rest of the Black Sea fleet.
Another Scott
@Another Scott: Whoops. A Reuters story identifies that photo as being from April 7.
Cheers,
Scott.
Tehanu
So why am I not surprised to learn that poverty and lack of opportunity prompts people to join an army? American soldiers are sometimes forced to sign up for food stamps; who can be surprised that young Russians have the same lack of better options? I wonder if the human race will ever prioritize taking care of people over fighting and killing.