Exclusive: Biden's administration wants to expand a federal COVID-19 tracking system to provide a more detailed view of how respiratory and other infectious diseases are affecting patients and hospital resources, according to a draft reviewed by @Reuters https://t.co/74KEQ7j9j0 pic.twitter.com/YPIx6g0IlH
— Reuters (@Reuters) March 14, 2022
The CEO @pfizer made the media circuit over the weekend, pitching the need for a 4th shot against #COVID19 . But Israeli studies show it's not very helpful, possibly unnecessary.https://t.co/8i0D9EVfF7
— Laurie Garrett (@Laurie_Garrett) March 14, 2022
What happens in the UK and Europe doesn't stay there.
5 out of 5 warnings predicted what would happen in this US.
Let's make believe the 6th won't. pic.twitter.com/BFPpGsZXV7— Eric Topol (@EricTopol) March 14, 2022
======
Fascinating how many of the worst performers are Eastern European/Balkan but even within that group there's a five-fold difference between the top and bottom. pic.twitter.com/E9mwaFdEvA
— Michael Hobbes (@RottenInDenmark) March 14, 2022
Europe and the US have been using "but the data" for more than two years now to avoid giving poor countries, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa, any credit for handling the pandemic better than us. It just doesn't pass the smell test for me.
— Michael Hobbes (@RottenInDenmark) March 14, 2022
While excess deaths will include deaths not directly caused by COVID, it is likely a much better measure of the overall cost of the pandemic in lives, as it includes the results of deferred care and deaths of despair, all of which are linked to the pandemic.
— (((Jeremy Posner))) (@jmp_nyc) March 14, 2022
Yup. From an actuarial perspective numbers of expected deaths is very predictable, so excess deaths is a very reliable number and does not need fully accurate COVID testing.
— (((Jeremy Posner))) (@jmp_nyc) March 14, 2022
Mainland China reports 5,154 new coronavirus cases, the biggest one-day increase on record
— BNO Newsroom (@BNODesk) March 15, 2022
China battles its biggest surge in COVID-19 cases since Wuhan in 2020 https://t.co/ewgFnVswvY pic.twitter.com/qRh7BRpTMa
— Reuters (@Reuters) March 15, 2022
China posted a steep jump in daily COVID infections, with new cases more than doubling from a day earlier to a two-year high as a virus outbreak expanded rapidly in the country's northeast https://t.co/PkS3YVLGLk pic.twitter.com/Fff3XPmukN
— Reuters (@Reuters) March 15, 2022
A northeastern Chinese province on Monday imposed a rare travel ban on its population as the region's Omicron outbreak helped drive China's tally of new local COVID-19 cases so far this year higher than any recorded in 2021. https://t.co/I8JLGToD40
— Reuters Health (@Reuters_Health) March 14, 2022
Shanghai official rules out need for COVID lockdown at the moment https://t.co/srPenNZdg5 pic.twitter.com/bFrL65WwzP
— Reuters (@Reuters) March 15, 2022
China's efforts to curb its largest COVID-19 outbreak in two years has forced companies including Apple supplier Foxconn and automakers Toyota and Volkswagen to suspend some operations, raising concerns over supply chain disruptions https://t.co/K9O8rw5mqx pic.twitter.com/h9dQvUNkK5
— Reuters (@Reuters) March 14, 2022
Hong Kong reported 27,765 Covid-19 infections on Tuesday, of which 15,809 were from rapid tests.
Full, trusted coverage on HKFP: https://t.co/w8LTgNgHXy
Covid data explainer: https://t.co/5l83n2Y37W pic.twitter.com/djOeNhHQJT— Hong Kong Free Press HKFP (@hkfp) March 15, 2022
Half of Hong Kong's 7.4M population has already caught Covid & 26,908 new cases were reported Monday along w/ 249 deaths. Cases are being driven by #omicron's subvariant, BA.2, a more infectious sibling than the original, which swept across the US https://t.co/tnMLha8gfq
— delthia ricks ? (@DelthiaRicks) March 15, 2022
Excerpts from a long, grim thread:
NEW: I’m not sure people appreciate quite how bad the Covid situation is in Hong Kong, nor what might be around the corner.
First, an astonishing chart.
After keeping Covid at bay for two years, Omicron has hit HK and New Zealand, but the outcomes could not be more different. pic.twitter.com/1Ol4HHs9kT
— John Burn-Murdoch (@jburnmurdoch) March 14, 2022
Vaccines.
Or more specifically: the elderly vaccination rate.
When Omicron hit, *more than two-thirds of people aged 80+ in Hong Kong were still unvaccinated*, compared to a couple of percent in New Zealand and Singapore. This was a year after vaccines became available. pic.twitter.com/YOf70ujEsm
— John Burn-Murdoch (@jburnmurdoch) March 14, 2022
Here’s our full story, from @mroliverbarnes, @primroseriordan, @imandylin2 and me, on the crisis in Hong Kong and how it got there https://t.co/X6bDrwW9hg
But there’s more…
— John Burn-Murdoch (@jburnmurdoch) March 14, 2022
In recent days China has locked down tens of millions in several cities, as it braces for a much worse wave than Jan 2020 where the bulk of infection was confined to Hubei province.
Story from @rwmcmorrow @primroseriordan @ruiyanggloriali @kathrinhille https://t.co/SbGobuPkWU
— John Burn-Murdoch (@jburnmurdoch) March 14, 2022
India will start administering COVID-19 vaccinations to 12- to 14-year-olds from March 16, the country's health ministry said on Monday, as schools reopen across the country with standard restrictions amid a significant fall in cases. https://t.co/xdxaIDxFc3
— Reuters Health (@Reuters_Health) March 14, 2022
The Tokyo Metropolitan Government will not request an extension of COVID-19 countermeasures scheduled to end on March 21, the Nikkei newspaper reported on Tuesday. https://t.co/YA7BDYEU1y
— Reuters Health (@Reuters_Health) March 15, 2022
War in Ukraine could make the Covid pandemic worse, according to the World Health Organization. There's significant risk of severe disease because of low vaccination rates in Ukraine & refugees have fled to surrounding areas w/ low vaccination rates https://t.co/IQj70nlsOP
— delthia ricks ? (@DelthiaRicks) March 14, 2022
Demand for the COVID-19 vaccine produced by U.S. biotech firm Novavax has been underwhelming in the European Union's main countries in the early rollout, so far undermining hopes that it could convince vaccine sceptics to get a shot. https://t.co/i1qoD6fR1N
— Reuters Health (@Reuters_Health) March 14, 2022
It has been 42 days since Denmark dropped masks. Here is the mortality curve. I don't need an explanation, so save your keystrokes. pic.twitter.com/o3yEJwWDPG
— Diego Bassani, PhD (@DGBassani) March 14, 2022
Germany reported a record high seven-day incidence of the coronavirus on Tuesday, just days before the planned easing of restrictions. https://t.co/h3qD8Qrort
— Reuters Health (@Reuters_Health) March 15, 2022
French health authorities reported 18,853 new COVID-19 infections on Monday, a figure showing a week-on-week increase for the tenth consecutive time on the day France lifted most of the restrictions put in place to contain the pandemic. https://t.co/i1rVF4N6Yh
— Reuters Health (@Reuters_Health) March 15, 2022
Britain to ditch last COVID travel measures on Friday – minister https://t.co/gVNVna1dUf pic.twitter.com/B5SvMqqOzA
— Reuters (@Reuters) March 14, 2022
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Wish it not to be true, but –
COVID increasing in 37% of wastewater sites & see surges abroad
*Now* is key moment to act in red/orange zones
➡️ Vaccine events, esp in low-income areas
➡️ Mask mandates in high exposure settings: Schools & work
➡️ Supplies of tests & N95s pic.twitter.com/o9H1Nj5Pun— Julia Raifman (@JuliaRaifman) March 14, 2022
Yes, here is the linkhttps://t.co/K6CNCK0cwm
— Julia Raifman (@JuliaRaifman) March 14, 2022
"We argue the lower severity of Omicron is a coincidence and that ongoing rapid antigenic evolution is likely to produce new variants that may escape immunity and be more severe"https://t.co/PwuwYMmYSq@pvmarkov @ArisKatzourakis @NatureRevMicro pic.twitter.com/35weGu27LQ
— Eric Topol (@EricTopol) March 14, 2022
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Florida's excess death rate was *4 times* higher than MA & 3x higher than NY, Aug-Dec 2021.
Fascinating paper @JAMA_current on how life expectancy & health in some states is plummeting as state leaders adopt positions that are bad for health. https://t.co/ulOGBzTaii pic.twitter.com/hOVwy6jesq
— Amy Maxmen, PhD (@amymaxmen) March 14, 2022
JPMorgan to resume hiring unvaccinated individuals, drop mask mandate -memo https://t.co/XcXP9hzcGG pic.twitter.com/Xv7RIJOtRq
— Reuters (@Reuters) March 14, 2022
It could also mean that getting immunized against COVID-19 helps protect you from liking Joe Rogan.
— Hunter (@HunterDK) March 14, 2022
NeenerNeener
Monroe County, NY:
52 new cases on 3/14.
Deaths now at 1805, up 5 from last week.
They’ve stopped reporting on the hospitalizations and the breakdown between vaxed and unvaxed.
Cliosfanboy
Thank you Anne. I look forward to reading this each morning.
rikyrah
The news from Hong Kong???
dmsilev
The numbers in China are per-capita small compared to what we’ve been seeing here, but OMG that trend line. Doubling every couple of days is not a recipe for happy fun times.
Locally, the seven day case rate in LA County has just about hit 10 per 100,000; perhaps more importantly, our hospitalization count has now dropped below 500 with fewer than 100 in the ICU, both numbers being roughly 9 month lows.
Amir Khalid
Malaysia’s Ministry of Health reported 22,030 new Covid-19 cases yesterday in its media statement, for a cumulative reported total of 3,845,601 cases. It also reported 92 deaths for an adjusted cumulative total of 33,899 deaths – 0.88% of the cumulative reported total, 0.96% of resolved cases.
Malaysia’s nationwide Rt stands at 0.96.
169 confirmed cases are in ICU, 97 of them on ventilators. Meanwhile, 33,872 more patients have recovered, for a cumulative total of 3,502,760 patients recovered – 91.1% of the cumulative reported total.
Two new clusters were reported yesterday, for a cumulative total of 6,883 clusters. 377 clusters are currently active; 6,506 clusters are now inactive.
21,636 new cases reported yesterday were local infections. 394 new cases were imported.
The National Covid-19 Immunisation Programme (PICK) administered 51,798 doses of vaccine on 14th March: 14,496 first doses, 2,055 second doses, and 35,247 booster doses. The cumulative total is 68,214,783 doses administered: 27,331,455 first doses, 25,775,007 second doses, and 15,317,615 booster doses. 83.7% of the population have received their first dose, 78.9% their second dose, and 46.9% their booster dose.
NotMax
FYI.
Appears to be little question that last statistic is now primed for increase. How dramatically remains uncertain.
YY_Sima Qian
On 3/14 Mainland China reported 3,507 new domestic confirmed (73 previously asymptomatic), 1,647 new domestic asymptomatic cases.
Guangdong Province reported 48 new domestic confirmed & 68 new domestic asymptomatic cases.
Guangxi “Autonomous” Region reported 4 new domestic confirmed (all at Qinzhou, all mild) & 19 new domestic asymptomatic cases (5 at Qinzhou, 3 at Fangchenggang & 11 at Chongzuo). There currently are 72 active domestic confirmed (48 at Fangchenggang, 15 at Baise, 7 at Qinzhou & 1 each at Chongzuo & Nanning) & 93 active domestic asymptomatic cases (44 at Fangchenggang, 12 at Baise, 28 at Chongzuo, 5 at Qinzhou & 4 at Liuzhou) in the province. 1 zone at Fangchenggang are currently at Medium Risk.
Hunan Province reported 1 new domestic confirmed case, at Changsha, a person arriving from elsewhere on 3/13, tested positive upon arrival. There currently are 3 active domestic confirmed cases in the province (1 each at Changsha, Xiangtan & Huaihua).
At Inner Mongolia “Autonomous” Region 15 domestic confirmed cases recovered. There currently are 45 active domestic confirmed & 1 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province.
Tianjin Municipality reported 51 new domestic confirmed (8 previously asymptomatic, all mild) & 4 new domestic asymptomatic cases, 43 are traced close contacts already under quarantine, 11 from screening of residents in areas under movement restrictions & 1 from screening of persons deemed at risk of exposure. 2 domestic confirmed case recovered. There currently are 197 active domestic confirmed & 22 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the city. 3 sites are currently at High Risk. 9 sites are currently at Medium Risk.
Shandong Province reported 106 new domestic confirmed (43 previously asymptomatic, 64 mild & 2 moderate) & 107 new domestic asymptomatic cases. There currently are 954 active domestic confirmed cases & 1,305 active asymptomatic cases in the province.
At Shanxi Province there currently are 23 active domestic confirmed cases in the province (12 at Jinzhong, 5 each at Yuncheng & Taiyuan & 1 at Jincheng).
Hebei Province reported 13 new domestic confirmed & 185 domestic asymptomatic cases. There currently are 195 active domestic confirmed & 432 active asymptomatic case in the province.
Liaoning Province reported 24 new domestic confirmed & 9 new domestic asymptomatic cases. 9 domestic confirmed cases recovered. There currently are 128 active domestic confirmed & 20 active domestic cases in the province.
Heilongjiang Province reported 7 new domestic confirmed (4 mild & 3 moderate) & 8 new domestic asymptomatic cases. 2 domestic confirmed cases recovered & 8 asymptomatic cases were released from isolation. There currently are 39 active domestic confirmed & 70 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province.
Jilin Province reported 3,076 new domestic confirmed (19 previously asymptomatic, 3,059 mild & 17 moderate) & 991 new domestic asymptomatic cases. There currently are 6,024 active domestic confirmed (2,025 mild & 27 moderate) & 2,591 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province. There are another 1,427 cases that are preliminarily positive, awaiting confirmation.
Beijing Municipality reported 6 new domestic confirmed cases (all mild), 4 are traced close contacts already under home or centralized quarantine, & 2 from fever clinics.
Shanghai Municipality reported 9 new domestic confirmed & 130 new domestic asymptomatic cases, 107 of the new domestic positive cases are traced close contacts already under centralized quarantine & 32 from screening of persons deemed at risk of exposure. 1 domestic asymptomatic case was released from isolation. There currently are 90 active domestic confirmed & 767 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the city. 9 sites are currently at Medium Risk.
Shaanxi Province reported 53 new domestic confirmed cases (49 mild & 4 moderate). There currently are 245 active domestic confirmed cases in the province. 13 sites at Xi’an, 2 at Baoji & 2 at Hanzhong are currently at Medium Risk.
At Hubei Province 4 domestic confirmed cases recovered. There currently are 26 active domestic confirmed (21 mild & 5 moderate, all at Wuhan) & 5 active domestic asymptomatic (4 at Wuhan & 1 at Xianning) cases in the province..
Jiangsu Province reported 20 new domestic (1 previously asymptomatic) & 27 new domestic asymptomatic cases. 12 domestic confirmed cases recovered & 1 domestic asymptomatic case was released from isolation. There currently are 161 active domestic confirmed & 114 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province.
Anhui Province reported 1 new domestic confirmed (mild, at Ma’anshan) & 11 new domestic asymptomatic (9 at Ma’anshan & 1 each at Tongling & Haozhou) cases. The cluster at Ma’anshan was discovered when close contacts of domestic positive cases at Changzhou in Jiangsu were traced. The case at Haozhou is a person arriving from Shanghai on 3/13, & the case at Tongling was found at fever clinic. There currently are 1 active confirmed (at Ma’anshan) & 15 active domestic asymptomatic (190 at Ma’anshan, 2 at Suzhou & 1 each at Anqing, Chuzhou, Haozhou & Tongling) cases in the province.
Zhejiang Province reported 31 new domestic confirmed & 7 new domestic asymptomatic cases. There currently are 104 active domestic confirmed & 8 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province.
Gansu Province reported 7 new domestic confirmed (2 previously asymptomatic) & 20 new domestic asymptomatic cases. 2 domestic confirmed cases recovered. There currently are 140 active domestic confirmed & 123 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province.
Fujian Province reported 10 new domestic confirmed cases, all at Quanzhou, 9 are employees at the same hotel found via voluntary screening, & 1 found via fever clinic. There currently are 11 active domestic confirmed (10 at Quanzhou & 1 at Xiamen) & 1 active domestic asymptomatic (at Zhangzhou) cases in the province.
At Xining in Qinghai Province there currently are 2 active domestic confirmed cases in the city.
Henan Province reported 1 new domestic confirmed case, at Shangqiu, a person arriving from Shanghai, tested positive upon arrival. There currently are 7 active domestic confirmed (5 at Puyang & 1 each at Shangqiu & Zhengzhou) & 1 active domestic asymptomatic (at Puyang) cases in the province. 7 sites at Puyang are currently Medium Risk.
Chongqing Municipality reported 10 new domestic confirmed (all mild) & 2 new domestic asymptomatic cases, 10 are traced close contacts already under centralized quarantine, 1 via screening of persons deemed at risk of exposure, & 1 at fever clinic. There currently is 24 active domestic confirmed & 5 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the city. 3 dormitory buildings are currently at Medium Risk.
Yibin in Sichuan Province reported 2 new domestic asymptomatic cases, both arrived from Beijing on 3/8.
Yunnan Province reported 4 new domestic confirmed & 24 new domestic asymptomatic cases. 3 domestic confirmed cases recovered. There currently are 67 active domestic confirmed & 301 active domestic asymptomatic cases remaining in the province. As the province does not break down recoveries by administrative divisions, I cannot track the count of active cases in administrative divisions, given the multiple simultaneous outbreaks.
Imported Cases
On 3/14, Mainland China reported 95 new imported confirmed cases (20 previously asymptomatic, 3 in Guangdong), 121 imported asymptomatic cases, 2 imported suspect cases:
Overall in Mainland China, 149 confirmed cases recovered (93 imported), 64 asymptomatic cases were released from isolation (40 imported) & 93 were reclassified as confirmed cases (20 imported), & 7,251 individuals were released from quarantine. Currently, there are 11,984 active confirmed cases in the country (2,612 imported), 8 in serious condition (2 imported), 8,650 active asymptomatic cases (1,610 imported), 6 suspect cases (all imported). 184,281 traced contacts are currently under centralized quarantine.
As of 3/14, 3,198.272M vaccine doses have been injected in Mainland China, an increase of 5.036M doses in the past 24 hrs.
On 3/15, Hong Kong reported 27,765 new positive cases, all domestic (11,956 via RT-PCR & 15,809 from rapid antigen tests), 228 deaths (29 fully vaccinated, including 2 boosted) + 56 backlogged deaths.
On 3/15, Taiwan reported 39 new positive cases, all imported.
New Deal democrat
Now that the weekend is over and most States are reporting again, cases fell in the US to 31,800, a decline of slightly less than 25% for the week. This is a lower rate than all but roughly 5.5 months since the pandemic began. Cases declined in all jurisdictions except AK, AZ, DE, and WA.
Deaths declined sharply to 1031, nearly 60% below their recent peak. Some of this decline is probably due to late reporting by some States, notably OH, AZ, NV, and TN, as well as some rural States.
The 10 worst States are AK at 52 per 100,000, followed by ID at 40, then VT, WV, AR, ME, RX, CO, Wa, and CO, all between 14 to roughly 20. The 10 best jurisdictions are HI at 3 per 100,000, followed by NE, LA, IN, KS, MD, SD, UT, OH, and PR at 5.4.
There has been a lot of concern in the past week about a new wave beginning in some countries. I checked yesterday and in Norway, Sweden, Denmark, India, and South Africa, all of which have almost 100% BA.2 cases, were all still in decline. Whatever is driving the upturn, it is not simply BA.2. It is more likely the (once again) too early lifting of mitigation measures where original Omicron was – relatively speaking – kept at bay. In the US, before any upturn, we should see the rate of decline drop below 10% per week, and an increasing number of jurisdictions either flat or rising. That hasn’t happened so far.
Matt McIrvin
@New Deal democrat: I think we can see a bottoming out in the wastewater numbers here in New England, which is usually the earliest indicator. The lag in reported cases hides it a bit but the wastewater counts in metro Boston are not decreasing any more. That’s been the case for a few weeks. I don’t really see a consistent increase yet–any change is lost in the noise.
Baud
@New Deal democrat:
@Matt McIrvin:
I wonder if the warming weather will help us here.
Elizabelle
After evading the virus for years and months, came down with a case late last week and tested positive at the pharmacy yesterday. Spent the weekend in bed rest, with bad head and chest congestion, but actually feeling much better by the time covid was confirmed. Main thing this does is lock me down in house quarantine through the weekend. Pretty mild case; coughing at night, but well enough during the day to get a nice long (solitary!) afternoon walk outdoors.
Vector was my friend who swore she just had seasonal allergies, and hacked all over the car for about two days straight. (Surprise! Allergies can co-exist with ….) She has a slightly tougher case, but is recuperating too.
A little surprised that covid reared its head this late in the cycle. Still in Germany, and they require masking and proof of vaccination to eat in restaurants; are practicing social distancing. I found it interesting that President Obama finally contracted the disease, as well. Maybe just a fluke, for all of us, or maybe there is another surge upon us.
Anyway, grateful for the miracle vaccines that delayed this disease’s onset, and will make it milder and survivable.
Wishing all the jackals continued good health. (And awaiting news of baby Mousebumples jackal — that is something to look forward to.)
Baud
@Elizabelle:
Glad the symptoms are mild. Hope this means you’ll have time to comment more.
Elizabelle
@Baud: Thank you. I have been lurking. Just have not had much to add to the discussions; you all have had that under control.
Matt McIrvin
@Elizabelle: Feel better soon!
I think part of what’s happening is that people who were relatively careful through the Omicron wave and happened not to get it are now the people at the highest risk of infection, since they don’t have Omicron-specific antibodies (or many neutralizing antibodies at all, since they probably got their booster shot all the way back in November). So now that people are generally relaxing mitigation measures, we’re the ones most likely to get COVID. Of course, if you’ve been vaccinated and boosted, the chance of it being really dire is lower.
My doctor was talking about how we might not get another wave until the fall. I am not so sanguine–we didn’t go the whole summer last time; I suspect we will see a bounce just from the international Omicron wave spilling back over, and masking/vax mandates in the cities easing up. Control measures always seem to be really reactive with a frustrating lag in policy change. But I’m hoping we have low case counts at least a bit further into the spring.
Kalakal
@Elizabelle: Glad to hear it’s mild and you’re feeling better
YY_Sima Qian
@Elizabelle: Very glad to hear that it was pretty mild for you!
OzarkHillbilly
Where does Ron DeSantis go for his congratulations?
@Elizabelle: Happy it’s mild for you.
rikyrah
@Elizabelle:
????????
New Deal democrat
@Baud:
“I wonder if the warming weather will help us here.”
Spring and fall are the two seasons with the least indoor activity, so I think it will help.
Matt McIrvin
@OzarkHillbilly: He’ll get his congratulations, thanks to the novel therapeutic techniques of lying and screwing with the numbers.
topclimber
God bless Laurie Garrett but the one study cited in Nature.com shows the fourth booster is effective at returning protection to that of third shot, counteracting waning over time. Other “observational” studies cited in the article see even more efficacy.
New Deal democrat
@Matt McIrvin:
“ I think we can see a bottoming out in the wastewater numbers here in New England, which is usually the earliest indicator.”
The CDC site shows increases in the past 15 days in about 3/8’s of reporting sites, but declines in 5/8’s. Further, (as best I can tell) the overall trend isn’t an increase, but rather a bifurcation, as there has been an increase in sites reporting lower numbers as well.
topclimber
@New Deal democrat: Warm weather won’t help in the South as a/c use explodes.
Elizabelle
Very troubling to see the low vaccination rates among the elderly in Hong Kong and China. Actually, that rather surprises me. What a heartache, though, since it takes a while for the vaccine’s effectiveness to build, even if millions of shots were administered today.
This pandemic throws us a curve, every chance it gets.
I wonder if its lessons, and the debacle that Putin has brought upon himself (and, by extension, autocrats and oligarchs in his sphere of influence), will actually help with a kind of global reset, maybe beneficial in the long term, in the coming months and years. Which is not to ignore the tragic death toll in Ukraine and losses from a preventable virus, at this point.
Although there are many who prefer to ignore the whole thing.
Soprano2
Our wastewater surveillance shows the numbers are still declining, although for some reason our large plant hasn’t reported any numbers since the first of the year. Our 7-day average for cases is at its lowest number ever, 15. The 7-day case rate per 100,000 is 36, which is the lowest it’s been since July 2020. I figure we’ll be a an all-time low for hospitalizations in a week or two. All this is probably because of the relatively low vaccination rate, so it’s temporary because it’s due to our extremely high rate of infections. Plus all those totally avoidable deaths. *shudder* Vaccinations are still creeping up at about 0.01% a day. *sigh* I hope we can make it to 60% vaccinated in my county, I think that’s the most I can hope for at this point. Right now we’re at 58.59% with at least one shot, 53.84% fully vaxxed (2 shots)
That Hong Kong graph is a stark advertisement for the efficacy of the vaccines.
YY_Sima Qian
@Elizabelle: It surprised me a bit, too. However, the old & frail were more afraid of of the fever & soreness from vaccination than getting COVID-19, because the “Zero COVID” policies had been so successful in Mainland China & Hong Kong. Omicron BA.2 can change that in an instant. I think Taiwan’s vaccination rate for the > 80 y.o. cohort is only ~ 60% w/ 2 shots. The governments on both sides of the Taiwan Strait need to have a serious strategy to vaccinate all the hesitant elders ASAP, or the 2 years that their “Zero COVID” policies have bought will be for naught, as we are witness in Hong Kong.
Kalakal
@topclimber: Yes, she’s sort of on a different point. The 4th dose may (or may not) not improve protection significantly from the level provided by a 3rd dose, what it does seem to do is restore the level of protection ( which wanes over time )back up to that provided shortly after the 3rd dose. Just because *all* it does is restore rather than increase level of protection (maybe) does not make it valueless
It’s like arguing refilling a cars gas tank is pointless because it doesn’t increase the capacity of the tank
Soprano2
@YY_Sima Qian: I think “Zero Covid” was destined to fail no matter where it was tried, especially with the advent of Omicron. I understand why they did that, and if their most commonly used vaccine were more protective against Omicron it would have worked better, but at this point I think the “Zero Covid” ship has sailed for China.
PeakVT
There have been no deaths attributed to COVID in Vermont for 7 days. The state currently has the second lowest death rate per capita and the second highest vaccination rate (or fourth including territories) in the country. If Vermont was a country, it would rank 66th in the world, just behind Canada (99 deaths per 100k vs 97 deaths per 100k in VT).
Betty
@Amir Khalid: Hi Amir, do you which vaccine people there are receiving?
Matt McIrvin
@Kalakal: It’s the old question of what the vaccines are for: infection control, or prevention of severe disease and death. If you want to use them to help with infection control–and they are significantly helpful, though far from perfect–you’ll want to give people new shots in advance of every wave. If it’s just severe disease prevention, there seems to be a diminishing return from more shots after the third shot (which provides durable protection in most people).
Soprano2
I wonder how much of a supply chain problem the real lockdowns in China will cause. I’m sure the press will cover it well, rather than just blaming Biden for the problems. /s/s/s/s/s/s
lowtechcyclist
@Elizabelle: Glad your case isn’t too bad, and that you seem to be recovering well! Best wishes to your friend too.
lowtechcyclist
I guess the CDC must test just a sample of sewage treatment plants, because we’ve got one here in northern Calvert County, and it doesn’t show up on their map, even with zooming in. (It may be the only one in the county, practically all the county is currently on septic systems.)
I assume the nearest dot on their map is up in Baltimore; would be nice to get a closer-to-home read.
Matt McIrvin
@New Deal democrat: Yeah, the “3/8 of sites are increasing” point doesn’t scare me much–you’d expect that with a nationwide shallow decline that has a lot of noise around it. What I mostly see are these sort of local straggler outbreaks that fizzle out rapidly, with longer-lived ones in low-vaccination places like Idaho and rural Georgia. But I do expect that over several weeks or months, as antibodies from past infection decline, the chance that one of those blows up nationwide will increase.
Bruce K in ATH-GR
@OzarkHillbilly:
He can go to hell. No congratulations will be offered there, but he can go to hell regardless.
Bruce K in ATH-GR
Greece: repost from Monday while waiting to see what the Tuesday numbers look like:
“…the news isn’t great. The Sunday lull dropped the new numbers to 11,986, but Monday’s numbers are out, and the new cases are double that – 22,694. Deaths rose from 48 to 70, and intubated patients rose from 356 to 364.
Prime Minister Mitsotakis has tested positive.
Source: Kathimerini”
Elizabelle
@lowtechcyclist: Thank you for the kind wishes.
To you, and rikyrah, and kalakal, and Matt McI, and YY Sima, and Ozark, and all the jackal buds.
Grateful to have held off first contact with the virus for a year. Got my first Pfizer vaccine 368 days ago. Those vaccines bought us all so much time. And life.
smith
@Kalakal: There’s also the fact that right now very few people in the world are more than 6 months out from their boosters. We know the effectiveness of the vaccine wanes over 4-6 months, especially in older people. How much more will it wane beyond that? And since old people were near the front of the line for boosting, they will be among the first to experience waning vax effectiveness.
If a fourth shot is withheld from old people until next fall, many of them by that time will be almost a year past the booster. I have a sinking feeling that reluctance to go ahead with additional shots is as much to do with wishful thinking that the pandemic is over and unwillingness to devote more resources as to public health considerations.
mrmoshpotato
@Elizabelle:
Sorry to hear that. Wishing you both speedy recoveries.
Cliosfanboy
My university went “Masks Optional” a week ago. Every day a few fewer students wear them to class. I still am. Fortunately my school is still passing out free N95s. Even better, they’re the kind with loops around the head, NOT the kind that loop behind the ears. (I HATE! those)
Cliosfanboy
@Elizabelle: Hope you’re better soon!
Elizabelle
@mrmoshpotato:
@Cliosfanboy:
Thank you both.
And, like Clio, def a fan of masks.
Sloane Ranger
Yesterday the UK reported 170,985 new cases, but this includes cases from the weekend as we no longer update the Dashboard on Saturdays and Sundays and also excludes Scotland, which did not report due to a technical issue. The rolling 7-day average is up by 48.1%. New cases by nation,
England – 163,954
Northern Ireland – 5523
Scotland – Did not report due to technical issue.
Wales – 1508.
Deaths – There were 135 deaths within 28 days of a positive test reported yesterday. This includes deaths that occured over the weekend. The rolling 7-day average is up by 2.1%. 125 deaths were in England, 7 in Northern ireland, 3 in Wales and Scotland did not report due to technical issues.
Testing – 585,290 tests took place yesterday. The rolling 7-day average is up by 7.4%.
Hospitalisations – As of Thursday, 10 March, 11,944 people were in hospital and 254 were on ventilators as of Friday, 11 March. The 7-day average for hospital admissions was up by 16.9% on 7 March.
Vaccinations – As of 13 March, 91.7% of all UK residents aged 12+ had had 1 shot of a vaccine, 85.6% had had 2, and 67% had had a 3rd shot/booster.
Barbara
@Soprano2: “Destined to fail” needs context. “Zero Covid” did not fail to keep the death rate low in China as a vaccine was being developed. In that sense, it succeeded. It might not be sustainable where vaccination rates are not high enough, or where the vaccine itself does not give good protection against the most recent variant, but that does not make the policy a failure. It makes the policy an incomplete solution in light of subsequent events. Here we are, at one million dead, thumbing our noses at a country that has turned itself upside down to protect people.
Elizabelle
@Barbara: Truth. And we are possibly at two and up to three million dead. We know there has been an incredible (sometimes intentional) undercount of the virus’s toll.
The Castle
@PeakVT:
One thing I find very strange is that the official COVID death toll in Vermont is 608, but the CDC excess death estimate is over three times higher, at 1,967.
The average discrepancy between the official and excess death estimates is about a 10% undercount nationwide, and most states cluster around that. None are even close to being off by double, and yet Vermont is off by over 300%.
I have not seen any explanation for this anywhere. It’s not just a small state thing.
If the excess death numbers are a better metric, then Vermont is actually just in the middle of the pack in the US for death rates.
Bruce K in ATH-GR
Greece: Tuesday report. New cases rose to 26,536 from 22,694 reported on Monday; 50 new dead, from 70 on Monday; and ICU intubations are at 358, from 364 reported Monday. (Source: Kathimerini)
NeenerNeener
@topclimber: I sure hope so! I had my 4th shot about 10 days ago and I have an MRI coming up this Friday. I’ll need to do that unmasked, since my claustrophobia can’t handle anything on my face, even with Valium.