In last night’s update I wrote:
Here’s where things are going to get dicey. As the economic responses move from sanctioning specific business and individuals to removing most of Russia’s banking system from SWIFT and going after the wealth – in dollars, pounds, euros, etc; real estate and land; yachts; jets; professional sports franchises; etc – of Putin, his key aides and agents, and the rest of the oligarchs enabling him, as well as going after the mistresses, girlfriends, and children of Putin and his cronies, pressure is going to build. Specifically the pressure by the oligarchs and other sycophants and cronies to protect themselves. Additionally, the increase in the flow of weapons to rearm Ukraine to allow it to withstand the Russian reinvasion is also going to increase pressure on and around Putin.
The war is not going well for the Russians. This was not the speed run to Kyiv to capture and kill as much of the Ukrainian national government and as much of the government of the oblasts as possible and replace them with easily controlled trusted agents. Every day that Ukraine holds out increases the pressure. And that pressure is going to get relieved in two ways. The first is that Putin will up his operational tempo. What he threw at the Ukrainians overnight was much more than he’d ordered be done over the previous two nights. And as day 4 turns into night 5 of the war what he orders will be more than what he threw at the Ukrainians today. CNN reported earlier that its reporting team had eyes on a thermobaric missile launcher just south of Belgorod, Russia near Ukraine. If things continue to go badly, I expect we’ll unfortunately see this type of weapon system deployed. The second way the pressure is going to get relieved is that Putin will begin to go after the US and our EU and NATO allies in ways that he has not yet done so. He will lash out, most likely through increased cyber attacks first, in an attempt to inflict pain to stop, or at least slow down, the resupply of the Ukrainian military.
Putin has seriously miscalculated with this reinvasion. He misunderstood the resistance his forces would face. For whatever reason he seriously misunderstood the competency of the military he’s spent over a decade rebuilding and modernizing. And he misunderstood how the US and its EU and NATO allies, as well as the vast majority of the world, would respond.
Well that didn’t take long!
Putin: "Western countries aren't only taking unfriendly economic actions against our country, but leaders of major Nato countries are making aggressive statements about our country. So I order to move Russia's deterrence forces to a special regime of duty." pic.twitter.com/AC1yHncqZc
— max seddon (@maxseddon) February 27, 2022
From one of the top experts on Russia's nuclear deterrent https://t.co/bOQ8p8wPgy
— max seddon (@maxseddon) February 27, 2022
First off, that DOD statement I referenced two days ago about DOD’s assessment that there had been no change to Russia’s nuclear posture – that statement is no longer operative.
Here’s a nice long detailed thread from James Acton of the Carnegie Endowment’s Nuclear Policy Program.
<THREAD>What does raising the alert level of Russian nuclear forces entail?
Russian nuclear forces can be divided into strategic (which can reach the US) and nonstrategic (which can't.) I'm looking to see whether strategic forces, nonstrategic forces, or both are alerted. (1/n) https://t.co/Mx54KMoSv1
— (((James Acton))) (@james_acton32) February 27, 2022
The technical parts are good. The national strategic policy portions – coming up with a way for Putin to deescalate by giving him things he wants or providing him inducements – are not. Putin has played this card for two reasons.
The first is domestic. Go back to Max Seddon’s translation of Putin’s announcement (emphasis mine):
Western countries aren’t only taking unfriendly economic actions against our country, but leaders of major Nato countries are making aggressive statements about our country. So I order to move Russia’s deterrence forces to a special regime of duty.
Putin is attempting to flip the script here as the war continues to go badly for him in its initial phases and the economic measures being implemented begin to bite everyday Russians in a way he can’t shield them from. Russia isn’t waging war in Ukraine, for Ukraine, by reinvading Ukraine. No, no, no my friends! Russia is being attacked by NATO.
This is what Putin is trying to head off:
Central Moscow flooded with riot police. Cutting protests off before they can begin. pic.twitter.com/sHXFmk8V5Y
— James Longman (@JamesAALongman) February 27, 2022
Russia's Prosecutor General threatens citizens: "Assistance to a foreign state during the period of a special operation will be regarded as treason to the Motherland."
State TV host Olga Skabeeva spreads this threat.
Putin's well-oiled war machine includes propagandists. pic.twitter.com/MVououqzYR
— Julia Davis (@JuliaDavisNews) February 27, 2022
Protesters in Minsk have encircled the building of the General Staff of the Defence Ministry of Belarus and are chanting "Glory to Ukraine!" pic.twitter.com/caj03prp7N
— Tadeusz Giczan ?? (@TadeuszGiczan) February 27, 2022
Because if Putin can’t get those Russians who are displeased and protesting back in line and keep the rest of the Russian people in line and he can’t get the US and our EU and non-EU allies to back off the economic measures targeting him, the oligarchs, and the Russian people, as well as doing military resupply to Ukraine, more of this is going to happen:
⚡️Russian oligarch Deripaska: 'We need peace."
In his Telegram channel, industrial tycoon Oleg Deripaska wrote that peace talks between Russia and Ukraine must begin “as soon as possible!”
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) February 27, 2022
The truth is that Russian forces are targeting NATO civilian targets:
Source:https://t.co/zKiMqrmf8y
— Alex Kokcharov (@AlexKokcharov) February 25, 2022
One of the other civilian ships that Russia has attacked in the Black Sea was flying a Turkish flag. So that’s attacks on two NATO members shipping in the past two days.
Putin is also doing this because he needs to try to unsettle Ukrainians and their leadership as well as the Americans, Europeans, and everyone else. Putin made this announcement shortly after the announcement that Russia had called for unconditional peace talks, which Ukraine agreed to provided they would be held on the Ukrainian-Belarusian border. The Ukrainians took the escalatory remarks in stride.
⚡️️Zelensky doesn't believe in the positive outcome of the negotiations with Russia.
"But let them try, so that no citizen of Ukraine doubts that I, as president, tried to stop the war when there was still a chance, however small," he said in a video address.
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) February 27, 2022
But others have decided that the time for business as usual is over. The Japanese joined the new, harsher economic measures shortly before Putin’s speech:
⚡️Japan joins Western allies to eject selected Russian banks from SWIFT.
Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said on Feb. 27 that Japan will put sanctions on Russia’s dictator Vladimir Putin and extend $100 million in emergency humanitarian aid to Ukraine.
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) February 27, 2022
This is the statement of German Chancellor Scholtz less than 1/2 an hour after Putin’s announcement of escalation:
We must put a stop to warmongers like Putin. That requires strength of our own. We want a strong, modern Bundeswehr and we will spend over 2% of our economic output on ensuring it is suitably equipped.
Yes, we fully intend to secure our freedom and our prosperity!— Bundeskanzler Olaf Scholz (@Bundeskanzler) February 27, 2022
Here’s a full thread tweeting out Chancellor Scholz’s remarks in English.
And the EU has now closed its airspace to Russian air traffic including the private jets belonging to the oligarchs.
⚡️EU shuts its airspace to all Russian-owned, Russian-registered, or Russian-controlled aircraft, President of the EU Commission Ursula von der Leyen said on Twitter.
“Including the private jets of oligarchs,” she wrote.
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) February 27, 2022
I’m in complete agreement with Rick Wilson’s take. I’ve been working Russia’s hybrid warfare or active measures or political warfare or whatever your preferred term is since JAN 2014. I’ve got publications in two different professional (NOT academic) journals on the topic working it from my specialty areas of low intensity warfare and this point from Wilson in tweet #8 is absolutely correct:
8/ He was winning the game when he used the first-world capacity of the Russian state — intelligence, propaganda, financial subversion, political manipulation (eg US 2016 and Brexit, to name just two) — because Russia is the top of those games.
The rest? Nah.
— Rick Wilson (@TheRickWilson) February 27, 2022
This reinvasion of Ukraine was the worst mistake Putin could make. As long as he was seeing massive returns of his political warfare campaigns agains the US, the EU, NATO, and other states, which were costing him pennies on the dollar, combined with low intensity warfare carried out by Spetznaz and Wagner mercenary forces, he looked strategically strong and tactically effective. And no one, apparently including him, had any idea just how bad and ineffective the rebuilt Russian military really is. Until now…
And Tom Nichols, who is an actual Russian subject matter expert is also correct:
I will let you know. For now, this is meant for a domestic audience in Russia as much as for anyone else. https://t.co/gwaIo9u3gR
— Tom Nichols (@RadioFreeTom) February 27, 2022
If things like this in Ukraine weren’t happening to Russian forces, then Putin would not be escalating/threatening escalation:
AaAAAaAAaAAaaaaaaaaAAAAAAA!!!!
These two Russian idiots in Shevchenkove, Kharkiv oblast, had their vehicle sputtered out.
Guess what they did?
They came to a local Ukrainian police station.
And asked if they could have some fuel. pic.twitter.com/HmaUNORQL3— Illia Ponomarenko (@IAPonomarenko) February 27, 2022
Kharkiv authorities: “Dozens” of demoralized Russian soldiers surrender in the city pic.twitter.com/m9KJGOkuyF
— Illia Ponomarenko (@IAPonomarenko) February 27, 2022
Right now the US, the EU, our NATO partners, and our non-EU and non-NATO partners need to continue doing what they’re doing. Increasing the economic pain. Resupplying the Ukrainians. Updating the plans, sequels, and contingency plans for when and under what conditions NATO may have to actually enter the war*. What does not and should not be done is providing Putin with any enticements or rewards for his actions today. Doing that will only reinforce his belief, and teach everyone else, that as long as one has a nuclear arsenal of sufficient size at one’s disposal that one can hold the world hostage to get what one wants. That cannot be allowed to happen.
Open thread.
* I expect that if the attacks on shipping keep up, the initial entry will be to protect the shipping.
debbie
Adam, when did NATO cease to be a mutual defense organization?
Jeffery
The undoing of an oligarch.
Spanky
Hello 1962! How nice to see you again!
Not.
citizen dave
Read a tweet that was “these sanctions are designed to get Putin murdered”. I agree, it’s a possibility. Hoping for one of two outcomes: Putin is taken out internally; Russian generals/military refuse to send nuclear missiles when ordered to by Putin.
Another Scott
OT, re your first graphic – TinEye says it goes back to at least 2017 (with different text). From “GoodBot_BadBot” on reddit.
HTH a little.
Cheers,
Scott.
Kelly
Many videos of unarmed Ukrainians standing in the road blocking Russian vehicles. The Russians drive around them or turn around without harming the Ukrainians. Perhaps it will be difficult to get the Russian army to do the dirty work Putin expects of them.
Yarrow
Thank you for your excellent threads, Adam.
Deripaska can call for peace all he wants. He should be sent to prison for the rest of his miserable life and then rot in hell. Remembering that this happened last October:
FBI agents swarm Washington home of Russian oligarch Oleg Deripaska.
Yarrow
Found this interesting.
Calouste
From the Guardian.
Moscow stock market opens in 12 hours or so. It’s going to be…interesting.
Adam L Silverman
@debbie: It hasn’t stopped being one.
Sebastian
Putin is a dead man walking.
1. There are trillions of dollars at stake and he is in the way.
2. He is overstretched. Kazakstan’s revolution was barely suppressed. Same for Belarus and Minsk is stirring.
3. Sustained losses, especially young conscripts, will push Russian protests into overdrive. Watch for the mothers. Once the police starts clubbing mothers all bets are off.
Adam L Silverman
@Eggbert: You’re banned. And before anyone asks, I did discuss this with Cole.
debbie
@Adam L Silverman:
Then why wasn’t that said every time Putin brought up NATO aggression?
Another Scott
Repost from downstairs – Running news update thread from DW.com (German national broadcaster):
FWIW.
Cheers,
Scott.
Adam L Silverman
@Yarrow: He’s trying to tap dance as fast as possible to avoid facing any repercussions from any of this as well as his past actions on behalf of Putin.
Sebastian
@citizen dave:
The generals will not, under no circumstances, execute such an order. This is not North Korea.
Adam L Silverman
@debbie: Because our news media is terrible? Because the nat sec officials figure they don’t need to repeat the obvious?
Yarrow
@Adam L Silverman: Yeah, I know. Same with Abramovich. They want to keep their lifestyles.
Brit in Chicago
@Sebastian: I hope you’re right! Can you tell us why you’re so sure?
New Deal democrat
As I said in the thread below, I would not be surprised at all by major domestic blowback in Russia itself.
Saw a tweet within the last hour that a Russian UN official apologized for the invasion over a live microphone to his fellow participants at an international conference. The cracks in the dam start very slowly, then all at once.
Sebastian
Not sure if this is confirmed or even an official account.
VeniceRiley
The overflight denial now includes Portugal. Swiss the only holdout. Surrounded by ban countries and no way there.
Love seeing how EU can ratchet up so fast in what I previously regarded as a hopelessly slow and divided bunch. Warms the heart.
Xeni on twitter – and I am rooting for her- is calling out for Russian operatives by name that have pushed cash investments and influence in social media companies like Facebook to be deported.
David Anderson
Adam… 2 questions.
A) The Ukrainians have substantial regular and reserve forces in Western Ukraine. Are they heading east or south?
B) at what point are there Ukrainian buying agents going through every storage yard in central Europe saying ” 12 recently maintained Mig-29s, yes after a quick paint job… We’ll take them. And ohhh 48 T-72s and a battery of SA-11s we’ll take them too?”
When does NATO start rebuilding veteran UA formations with gear that they already know how to use?
MisterForkbeard
@Adam L Silverman: I was wondering how long that would take. He hasn’t exactly been constructive or reasonable.
Thanks again for these posts, Adam. They’re much better than a lot of the coverage I see, and collect a lot of information.
japa21
@Adam L Silverman: Didn’t catch the comment, but thank you.
p.a.
How much are memories of the Chechen Wars influencing Russian public opinion? A Moscow-loyal gvt was eventually restored, but IIRC the Russian military was a mess. Maybe memories of Afghanistan too, although that was a generation ago.
Miss Bianca
@debbie:
Err?
Adam L Silverman
@David Anderson: I don’t know anything more about Ukrainian troop movements than anyone else. It is not being reported on, nor should it be.
As for acquisitions, I expect that what they want is what they’re getting. Resupply for their existing air assets, anti tank weapons, air defense systems, small arms, and ammunition.
Peale
O.K. I’ll keep the stupid questions short today. One of the things I remember reading about this offensive is that it needs to be done before the thaw when lots of Ukraine becomes mud fields. Is this still true, or is that some myth about the place that was carried forward from WWII that doesn’t apply any longer. Like “Sure, at one time, but in the 1960s we put in drainage tiles.”
More serious question: what kind of damage will Russia’s thermobaric missiles do and what is their range?
Sebastian
@Brit in Chicago:
For one I am a fellow Slav and know my distant Russian brothers. Despite the constant pessimism and nihilism, the love for and sense of family is huge. A cousin of 2nd degree removed? Might as well be your brother. A family reunion is 100 people.
Launching nukes to end the world, to be the one who is responsible to end the lives of 100 of your nephews and nieces? Your 3 dozen aunts?
Only if it is to save them. Not to appease a madman. If given the choice they will kill him and be killed themselves in the process.
VeniceRiley
Aww, Adam took a whole pie away! Good job. I rarely root for less pie.
Im also beyond pleased to see how refugees are being treated; by and large. Clearly Europe sees Ukraine as part of Europe!
Miss Bianca
@Adam L Silverman: thank you for that.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
Shades of Trump in 2020 trying make the news about how awful the Democrats were while every day was more stories about Trump’s COVID screw ups.
debbie
@Miss Bianca:
Had that been pointed out when Putin first accused NATO of aggression, and every time he repeated it, he’d look like a bigger buffoon than he already is.
Adam L Silverman
@Peale: I’m really the wrong person to ask on the first question. That’s Cole, Omnes, or Soonergrunt.
On the second, my understanding is that the thermobarics are basically intended to terrorize while doing maximum damage. They are an incendiary and they cause an incendiary effect in their flight path, not just on impact. So shoot one at a target in an urban area and everyone in the flight path or near it is going to get torched. And then so will whatever it hits.
Sebastian
@Sebastian:
Looks like it’s confirmed. 5,000 from Sweden, Denmark sending 2,700 plus stingers.
b1narys3rf
Putin’s dead man switch(es). That’s what’s on my mind today. What has he got? Anything which could stop what’s increasingly feeling like the inevitable? What a goddamned mess.
James E Powell
@p.a.:
I also wondered about that. I’m comparing it to the way many Americans still talk about Vietnam like it was fairly recent. Don’t know how it goes in Russia.
Felanius Kootea
I’ve heard that COVID-19 can have a profound negative impact on brain tissue. Are we sure that Putin didn’t catch it? Jokes aside, thank you for the updates.
Geminid
@Adam L Silverman: Would you please comment on the ways and mans by which donated weaponry will be put in Ukrainian hands?
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@Brit in Chicago: there are something like three instances were Soviet officers blew off launch orders the machine because it was stupid thing to do. There is a whole tradition in the Russian military for that. But like what came up with Trump that if Trump ordered a nuclear attack because of an underdone steak the generals would ignore it.
Kelly
@Peale: About that mud
https://twitter.com/_david_ho_/status/149789193632522649
My Dad ran tracked heavy logging and construction equipment. I grew up to tales of dozers stuck in the mud.
Peale
Glad that Japan has stepped in. My guess is that they weren’t going to wait around to figure out who attacked their tanker yesterday.
I’m trying to figure out who Putin would put in and demand that the Ukrainians accept as their new leader. The 2014 government? Some of the leaders of the separatists?
Did anyone outside of Moscow recognize those breakaway republics? I think it might have only been Daniel Ortega.
James E Powell
@Adam L Silverman:
Massive civilian casualties are not going to help Putin. And it will make it nearly impossible for Ukrainian leaders to capitulate.
VeniceRiley
Poland don’t be like this if you want to keep support over here https://twitter.com/nzekiev/status/1497805019311218689?s=21
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@b1narys3rf: At one point Russian nuclear dead man switch is supposedly some bunker in the Urals with three officers that if they lost contact with Moscow that on their discretion they can order a launch. But who knows no, that bunker could just a be a whine cellar for a Oligarch now.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Felanius Kootea: he doesn’t seem to have much faith in their vaccine, does he?
Brit in Chicago
@Sebastian: Thanks for the reply. Again, I hope you’re right.
Miss Bianca
Even if Putin finds a face-saving way to declare “Victory” and orders a pull-out of Ukraine tomorrow, I fervently hope that by now the world is so sick of his shit that the pressure on oligarchs and hackers and Russian dark money continues and increases – flush that shit out of worldwide socio-political systems for good.
And if that means that Putin subsequently commits suicide by shooting himself in the back of the head several times after downing a cup of plutonium tea, then defenestrating himself and pulling a bathtub after him on the way out the window, well…so much the better.
Adam L Silverman
@Geminid: They’ll be brought in overland from the NATO countries bordering Ukraine. Once in Ukraine, the Ministry of Defense will distribute them overland to where they need to be.
p.a.
If you have the guns, clubs, jails, and enough people willing to use them (domestic or imported) you can put a blowup doll in charge. That’s the tRumpist/white nationalist endgame here if SCOTUS decisions are seen as the illegitimate reich wing hacks they are.
SiubhanDuinne
@japa21:
I saw that there was a comment, but as I had already pied Eggbert a few days ago I just got a cupcake or something and didn’t bother to read it.
Cacti
@Sebastian: It’s official. Was announced by the Prime Minister.
Big effin’ deal since Sweden’s official policy has been neutrality since WWII.
Aid will include: 5,000 anti-tank weapons, 5,000 helmets, 5,000 body shields, and 135,000 field rations.
James E Powell
@Adam L Silverman:
The Ukrainians would have to be trained in their use, right? Or are these just more of the weapons they already use?
JoyceH
I keep seeing videos of Russian tanks and trucks abandoned on the side of the road, out of gas. Naive question – what’s to keep the Ukrainians from slapping a little blue and yellow paint on them, gassing them up and using them?
Brit in Chicago
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: Well that was never actually put to the test in Trump’s case, thank goodness.
I find this a tricky issue (in this country, I mean) because civilian control of the military is an absolutely crucial point of principle. But of course I hope that if Trump had ordered a nuclear strike (or even live firing at demonstrators) then the generals would have found a way to ignore the order, so I have trouble finding a consistent position. Perhaps all we can say is that no rules can take account of someone like Trump. But then who is to decide when the president comes close enough to meeting that criterion?
jnfr
@Spanky:
Really not. I’m having personal flashbacks to the 80s when Reagan threatened to deploy nuclear-tipped Cruise missiles in Germany, just a few minutes flight to Moscow. There were hundreds of thousands of German citizens in street protests then too, and seeing this again gives me the fear.
Kelly
@JoyceH: Been wondering the same thing
Geminid
@Adam L Silverman: Thanks. I guess right now no one has to sneak them in. I was worried that the Russians would be in a position to interdict weapons, but it hasn’t happened yet. I guess they still might bomb transport, at least in the daytime.
b1narys3rf
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: that’s not the ones I’m thinking of but thanks. I mean ones Putin may have designed to expose and fuck up Russian oligarchs in a way that makes them feel like they have to keep him for instance. This is why I can’t be gleeful about all the speculation of his impending demise.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
I don’t pretend to understand international finance, but the rouble is crashing hard
dmsilev
So, I’m reading that the rouble has dropped in value by half since Friday. With Western governments freezing Russian assets and calls starting to escalate from “freeze” to “seize”, I wonder what the oligarchs are going to do to preserve their ill-gotten gains.
Bitcoin? Please let it be bitcoin.
Mary G
Having little knowledge about of these matters, I don’t comment much on your threads, but I want to chime in on appreciation. I come away a bit more informed every time. Also your low tolerance for trolls warms my heart.
Hellbastard
ANy suggestions for credible organizations to donate money to help the Ukrainians? I know my donation isn’t much in the grand scheme of things…
different-church-lady
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: What kind of Olgarch can you call yourself if your wine cellar doesn’t have warheads?
different-church-lady
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
All you have to do to understand international finance is pretend that you do.
Mallard Filmore
@Enhanced Voting Techniques:
If those rockets need all the maintenance that TV shows indicate, I half expect that if they can be lit, they explode in their silos.
Kelly
@JoyceH: Alexander Vindman says Ukraine will use captured Russian equipment
https://twitter.com/AVindman/status/1497973530390147072
tom
Somewhat OT: I was driving from Ann Arbor to Detroit earlier this afternoon when I passed a convoy of at least 100 trucks traveling east on I-94 all flying Ukrainian flags. They weren’t blocking traffic or anything, just driving along. They were getting a lot of waves, thumbs-up signals, and friendly horn-honking from passing cars and other trucks.
I’ve never seen anything like it.
different-church-lady
@b1narys3rf: I think you might mean dead hand, not dead man.
West of the Rockies
@Adam L Silverman:
Sooo glad you banned that idiot.
Mathguy
Adam, thanks for your hard work on all theses updates. Far more useful and informative than anything else I’ve seen.
CROAKER
germy
Mathguy
@dmsilev: I’m sure they’ve seen the Matt Damon ads. Drop a billion or two on Crypto.com!
Calouste
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: On a similar line, I assume most Russian oligarchs have had a message from their western banks over the weekend about new regulations coming in force and the collateral to their loans and lines of credit no longer being what it once was and if they could please contact them at their earliest convenience to avoid unnecessary delays in payments from their accounts.
Sloane Ranger
@Adam L Silverman: And the fact that the supply lines seem to be working effectively is evidence that the Ukrainian government is still in control of most of the country, despite the Russians invading from three sides. As it stands, it looks like the only territory Russia controls is the bits its soldiers and armour are standing on at that moment.
Great news about Kharkov (sp?). Hats off to the Ukrainian people.
Richard Fox
One thing I am hoping for is the dismemberment of the ruthless propaganda machine that has wreaked havoc on our democratic norms for years. Having the money spigot turned off will do wonders. I’m not discounting the amount of damage that moron Putin can do on a global scale in terms of human suffering, but every bit helps. We can’t fight well if our own parties are continually corrupted. Now I’d we can pull the plug on Fox News next.. a boy can dream…
Ken
This is why the commodities and futures trading floors reconcile everything at the end of the day, and seize the assets of
Duke & Dukeanyone who can’t cover their positions. I’ve sometimes wondered what would happen if that were applied more broadly. I suspect there would be some reshuffling of the Fortune 500 list.trollhattan
@Spanky: Do I have to duck-and-cover drill under a tiny desk like back in the day?
different-church-lady
@Adam L Silverman: I am perversely curious about what, roughly, the contents of the triggering comment were.
Mallard Filmore
@Hellbastard:
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/2/25/2082312/-How-to-Help-Ukraine-h-t-Timothy-Snyder-cloris-creator-emptywheel
James E Powell
Is the AP a credible source?
Kyiv mayor Vitali Klitschko says the city is surrounded.
How long can that last?
Sebastian
@Miss Bianca:
There have been plausible speculations about Putin being a narcissist and looking at the situation through that lens. It explains that he couldn’t back out of his troop build-up and had to follow through with the offensive.
He cannot back out of this either, the narcissistic injury of admitting to having been wrong is too big.
On the other hand, what good is it being an oligarch if all your assets are seized? And if the population rises up because their conscript sons are being burned alive by Javelins and NLAWs?
Every Russian mother was worried sick that their son would be deployed in Ukraine, despite official statements they wouldn’t. Now the Ukrainians are letting the captured kids phone home to their parents. Do you think those parents aren’t telling other parents what’s going on?
I have a hard time conveying how big informal communication networks are in Eastern Europe, how much people talk to each other. To give you an example, my cousin (a mother of three with a full-time job) and her next-door neighbor will sit EVERY DAY in her kitchen for an hour or two and chit chat after work, drinking coffee and beer. When the kids come from school and husband from work they both go make dinner, and then after work she will spend an hour chatting on the phone with someone else. Or three people.
Oh yeah, on the way to work she will have coffee with someone and then at work she will sit with her coworker for morning coffee, then for 2nd breakfast (called Gablec, transl. Forky), for lunch of course, and then of course for a mid-afternoon coffee.
The amount of talking to each other is absolutely unreal. It’s a way of life.
By now everyone knows and the mothers that had a mother’s 6th sense screaming, are now worried sick for their children.
Another Scott
@Kelly: Thanks for the pointer. I had assumed that the heavy equipment would stick to the roads / railroads for just that reason.
Cheers,
Scott.
feebog
Thank you Adam for your continuing analysis and commentary. Question about the missile attacks on NATO partner shipping. Wouldn’t this be considered an attack or reprisal on NATO itself, not just the individual countries? Do you think NATO will respond? If so,how?
West of the Rockies
@b1narys3rf:
I hear you. Ugly little Putin is in a mess of his own making, and all because the greedy little goblin has a massive ego.
germy
@Ken:
The Benchley essay was written in 1922.
Some things change, some things stay the same.
Dorothy A. Winsor
edit: link is to an article from 10 years ago.
SiubhanDuinne
I was today years old when I learned that Canada’s Deputy PM (and former Minister of Foreign Affairs), Chrystia Freeland, is Ukrainian on her mother’s side. What’s more, she majored in Slavic studies, and while she was at Harvard she was in an exchange program in Ukraine and the KGB pegged her as a “troublemaker.” She was apparently quite the badass, and I mean that in the best possible way
Back in the day I paid a lot of attention to Canada’s cabinet members, but since retiring I don’t, much. So I found the info about Freeland very interesting.
The Pale Scot
@Enhanced Voting Techniques:
Have you heard of the “Buzzer”?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UVB-76
Kelly
https://twitter.com/olex_scherba/status/1497975994015227907?cxt=HHwWhoC51dvO8MkpAAAA
trollhattan
@Adam L Silverman:
I have to assume sophisticated weapon systems not formerly in the Ukraine arsenal aren’t immediately beneficial, because they need training (who can guess how much) to deploy and operate them. I’m thinking back to the Buk SAM used to shoot down the Malaysian airliner and the probability it was Russians operating it that day.
Shipping, training, deploying timeframe surely varies, depending on the weapon. The good news is every new system gives Russian planners new headaches to deal with.
debbie
@Dorothy A. Winsor:
Hope that’s just the first in a long series of good news.
West of the Rockies
@Miss Bianca:
Here, here! I am so tired of that little ogre’s rat fucking and criminality.
Keithly
@Peale: Tulsi and Tucker, I believe.
debbie
@Kelly:
So many f bombs going on!
West of the Rockies
Apparently… One does not just walk into Ukraine.
trollhattan
@James E Powell:
7-hour old BBC maps show Russian control of north and east Kyiv city limits. A lot can happen in seven hours.
trollhattan
@West of the Rockies: You have to steppe lively.
Sebastian
@James E Powell:
Those are NLAWs that Ukrainians already have in large numbers and are becoming really effective with.
The quantity is mind-boggling though. Estimates were they had several thousand, 3-4k maybe. This is probably doubling it.
Plus the Stingers which the Ukrainians have been asking for. It’s going to be a very bad time to be a Russian helicopter crew.
Interesting bit of info that was buried in all the news is that Germany is also sending 14 vehicles. I haven’t seen that before, all the announced shipments were missiles. I am going to look for which vehicles they are talking about.
Something is telling me it’s the beginning of a new phase of armaments.
BC in Illinois
From Middle Aged Riot on Twitter:
CROAKER
@West of the Rockies:
Azov fighters of the National Guard greased the bullets with lard against the Kadyrov orcs
You can follow the Rangers of the North here
https://twitter.com/ng_ukraine
The Pale Scot
Trucks and APCs for transport yea. I think hopping into a tank and using it just makes yourself a target. For tanks to survive they need infantry support trained to work with tanks. The losses the RU is taking is specifically that they are driving around without infantry sweeping the flanks.
Better to booby trap the tanks for when the recovery detail gets there. If they have to call a bomb squad for every abandoned vehicle….
patroclus
I’m no war expert (like Adam), so all I want to say is how tremendously inspiring the resistance of Ukranians and their leadership has been for the whole cause of freedom, democracy, human rights and the rule of law. It’s amazing how they’ve galvanized almost the entire world. I am familiar with economic sanctions though, and the speed with which the world has announced and implemented some of them is also a consequential development. Especially the SWIFT sanctions against the Russian banks. These were done with Iran and had a huge impact. The sanctions will take time, though, to have an effect. I’m hopeful that Ukraine can continue to hold out for quite some time.
oatler
According to the Old Boys Network, it’s not a bloody war, only a “thoroughly impolite dustup”.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/feb/27/conservative-peer-lord-barker-urged-quit-board-russian-firm-en-oligarch-oleg-deripaska
James E Powell
@Dorothy A. Winsor:
The linked article is ten years old.
different-church-lady
@Kelly: This stuff is really blowing my mind. Did the Russian rank and file go in with the idea that the Ukrainians would be hospitable to this invasion?
JohnC
@Dorothy A. Winsor: The dateline on the referenced Financial Times article is Nov 9, 2012.
We all need to be extra careful to examine our information before passing it along.
Sebastian
@Kelly:
Thank you for sharing this lmao
Geminid
@James E Powell: It took Grant six weeks to get Vicksburg to surrender and nine months to break into Petersburg, and Grant had a lot more resources behind him than the Russians do. Also, urban fighting was not hazard then that is now.
I think more sieges fail than succeed.
Sebastian
@different-church-lady:
They might have been told that the Ukrainian government is an illegitimate regime and that they will be greeted as liberators.
Ken
@Sebastian: I think traditionally that statement includes “and the war will pay for itself.”
West of the Rockies
@different-church-lady:
In matters if international finance, I just nod safely and steeple my fingers
The occasional “Indeed,” with raised eyebrows is a solid touch, too.
The Pale Scot
I’ve read that they are already getting margin calls because they can’t use their assets as collateral
Mary G
Somebody’s happy – the DJIA is up more than 830 so far today. Wall.Street going to make out big from selling some of the confiscated loot?
Sebastian
@Geminid:
All of Ukraine’s police, special police, and gangs of criminals couldn’t win against the unarmed population of Kyiv. Watch Winter on Fire on Netflix to see how absolutely savage the resistance was during the Maidan Revolution. Kyiv is not just any city, it is literally the most experienced and skilled city in terms of urban combat.
Now everyone is armed to the teeth with small arms, high-tech anti-armor missiles, and the Kyiv variant of very nasty Molotov cocktails. The only way for Russia to win this is a general mobilization and human waves a la Stalin. That is simply not a realistic scenario.
Frankensteinbeck
@different-church-lady:
If the reports about surrendered soldiers is correct, the rank and file went in asking, “Wait, is that the Ukrainian border we just passed? You want us to do what!?”
Sebastian
@The Pale Scot:
Can you share?
WhatsMyNym
deleted
Sebastian
@The Pale Scot:
Norwegians already seizing megayachts.
Lyrebird
@Adam L Silverman: Grazie!
..and thanks @Miss Bianca: for so ably applying your clapback skills here the past few days.
Plenty of room for honest disagreement in these here comment threads, no need for copy pasta provocation.
prostratedragon
@germy: That’s about it (qualified in International Economics ages ago, for my sins, though it is now but a palimpsest). Sounds like the context was the Allies demands for reparations from Germany after WWI.
marcopolo
Hey folks. Haven’t been reading through all the threads on this so this may be old or redundant but for folks looking for ways to help those in harms way in Ukraine I did see this piece @ Global Citizen:
9 Meaningful Ways You Can Help Ukraine
Some of them are bog standard like giving to the Red Cross (Ukrainian) but there are a couple Ukraine specific suggestions as well.
Trying to keep positive about all of this, hoping that somehow a way is devised to de-escalate things, but not seeing it myself atm. Very very glad Biden is prez, amazed by the resilience of the Ukrainian people (including their prez), heartened by how quickly and cooperatively the western democracies have pulled together to meet this challenge.
Going for a walk in the lovely sunlight here & full of gratitude for the ability to do it when I think of what so many other folks are dealing with. Everyone have a good rest of Sunday!
And thanks Adam (and all the other front pagers here) for providing your time, knowledge, and ban hammers every so often, lol.
Ken
@Kelly: Soon enough, the answer from every ship will be “We refuse you refueling — Nothing political, but you can’t pay.”
zhena gogolia
@Sloane Ranger: Kharkiv.
Words that have “o” in Russian often have “i” in Ukrainian, to be oversimplifying about it. Russian “o” turns into “e” after a soft consonant or another vowel, hence Kiev in Russian but Kyiv in Ukrainian, roughly.
dmsilev
Sanctions get personal:
What’s next, a ban on selling ludicrously over-long conference tables to Russia?
Sebastian
@Frankensteinbeck:
Also, reports of tankies emptying their fuel tanks as soon as they realize they are headed for Kyiv. We are only on day 4/5 and this is ramping up to a total disintegration of Russian troop cohesion.
A rout is now a, albeit very small and distant, possibility.
mrmoshpotato
@debbie: Well, in all fairness, Russian warships should go fuck themselves.
Baud
@debbie:
Won’t somebody think of the children?
Baud
@Sebastian:
https://youtu.be/ToKcmnrE5oY
(Switch the nationalities)
rikyrah
Thanks for keeping doing these good , informative posts.
Calouste
@Dorothy A. Winsor: That links to a Financial Times article from 10 years ago.
Adam L Silverman
@feebog: It is. I think NATO is tracking it and should things get worse, an appropriate response will be taken.
Spanky
@Mary G: ?? The markets are closed on Sundays.
greenergood
Haven’t had time to read all comments, but the UK could at leat do this? https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-north-east-orkney-shetland-60541028
Bex
@Dorothy A. Winsor: Are the Downfall writers working on this?
Sebastian
There has not been enough talk about the effectiveness of the Turkish Bayraktar TB2 drones.
Here it takes out a mobile missile system or supply truck carrying large missiles.
delk
Ukrainian Smiths “Bigmouth Strikes Again “
eclare
@Adam L Silverman: Thank you! Whatever day it was where he/she ruined every thread was frustrating.
mrmoshpotato
@Mary G:
You get a confiscated yacht! You get a confiscated yacht! Everyone gets a confiscated yacht!
Brachiator
@Mary G:
I thought that was Friday. And based somewhat on Putin supposedly calling for talks.
Geminid
@prostratedragon: These Allied demands were then imposed on Germany by the Treaty of Versailles. That was the root cause of Germany’s notorious hyper-inflation later that decade. The German government let the inflation happen because they needed it to happen.
The Pale Scot
@Sebastian:
The margin calls are those using Russian bonds as collateral.
Russian oligarchs margin calls
It will take a couple of days for assets in the hands of the sanctioned to be IDed I think
mrmoshpotato
@dmsilev: LOL!
Another Scott
@Mary G: My general impression is that when money leaves one investment, it immediately moves into another. It doesn’t just sit in a vault somewhere.
And “flight to safety” in times of international stress is a real thing.
The markets may be quite volatile for a while.
The old adage: DON’T PANIC! applies.
We’ll see!
Cheers,
Scott.
Bex
@Bex: OK, too soon.
dmsilev
@mrmoshpotato: I’m not sure I want a yacht. Can I have some pricey London real estate instead?
Barbara
@different-church-lady:Putin’s speech sounded as if he thought Ukraine would be to Russia what Austria was to Germany when Hitler assumed control of that country. I have no idea whether he actually believes that.
mrmoshpotato
@Baud:
Ok! Ukrainian children should also be telling Russian warships to go fuck themselves.
The Pale Scot
That “yacht” is specially designed for underwater salvage and other things like ripping up undersea cable. Which happened a day earlier to line running from Norway to an off coast island.
Miss Bianca
@tom: Wow. That’s cool. Hope they aren’t part of those “Freedumb” convoys, because I’d hate to have to think badly of them afterwards.
Barbara
@The Pale Scot: The yachts we saw in the Caribbean had anti-aircraft defenses. They called it the Russian oligarch special.
The Dangerman
Putin is a dead man talking. He could find someplace to flee (Donald, MAL got a spare bedroom?) or suffer the end result (and who knows how many others).
lowtechcyclist
@Kelly:
Maybe they’ve finally invented ice-nine.
cain
As this war turns against Putin – I’m curious to know what conversations are happening with Trump and Putin aligned GOP politicians. They must know by now that they are losing the propaganda war.
Trump apparently is going after Biden hard. So are leftists apparently.
I’m really looking forward to seeing the US Govt go after everyone with Russian ties and money. Destroying the propaganda networks and dark money will be good for us.
Ha
I wonder why there wasn’t this outpouring of support when Georgia was invaded. Was it because Obama is not as aggressive as Biden? Did we not have the intelligence assets then as we do now? Geography? Familial ties?
mrmoshpotato
@dmsilev: Sure!
JR
@Mary G: All that money fleeing Russian markets has to go somewhere…
Miss Bianca
@Sebastian: Interesting, thanks for that perspective. Do you think the “nonna network” (just using the term of art I’ve heard before) will have any influence on Putin’s policy-making, tho?
It just seems that there’s no one on earth as isolated from regular human contact as he is right now. Even Trump has/had more in the way of people telling him “shut up, brah.”
Another Scott
@Spanky:
Stock Market ‘futures’ are a way for big players to mess around while the markets are closed. One should remember, though, that futures often have nothing to do with the way the markets actually behaving during the trading day. (I think that one time in the last week DJIA futures were down 500-mumble points but the average ended up a percent or so by the end of the day.)
HTH!
Cheers,
Scott.
Barbara
@Ha: Obama wasn’t president when Georgia was invaded.
Another Scott
@delk: :-D
Thanks.
Cheers,
Scott.
Baud
@Barbara:
That’s no excuse.
Miss Bianca
@patroclus: hear, hear.
ARoomWithAMoose
@Ha: the Russian/Georgia conflict came to a head in August 2008, W. Was still president.
japa21
@Barbara: Right, Bush was. And response was even less than when Russia took over Crimea.But in getting at the main question I think there are a couple reasons why the response to either act did not amount to this.
In the Georgia case, Putin was focused on a small area of Georgia, not the whole country. Plus, Georgia did not have the same proximity to other European countries such as Poland, etc. that Ukraine does. Same applies to Crimea. Although the response was stronger it took into account the basically non-violent approach and that the rest of the country was not directly threatened.
Unfortunately, in both cases the response was either virtually non-existent or too weak to serve as a deterrent to future aggression.
ETA: According to Cole I should just shut up as this is definitely not my field of expertise, so take that into account when reading the comment. And Cole is correct.
Frankensteinbeck
@Ha:
Georgia wasn’t seen as part of the European community like Ukraine is. In cultural, political, and psychological terms Ukraine is seen as our next-door neighbor. What people feel makes a big difference. Add the very practical element that the Ukraine situation is explicitly an anti-NATO move, and this is personal and threatening to a lot of major powers in a way Putin’s previous aggressions were not. No, it’s not fair to Georgia, but it’s how people work and it’s not crazy, either.
Another Scott
@mrmoshpotato: And an MT-LB!
(via https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop)
(My kingdom for a comment editor that defaults to Text!!1)
Cheers,
Scott.
Leto
Also
Video at the link. (top right corner of video will be a speaker icon, click for sound)
patroclus
@Ha: Good question. It’s kind of like the Rhineland in 1935, Austria in 1937, Czechoslovakia in 38-39 and then Poland. The West didn’t react as strongly early because it was thought that Hitler was still a rational actor, that he could be negotiated with, that Germany would never really invade a peaceful independent nation. We learned different then; we’re learning different now.
Lyrebird
Oh yeah me too!
Let delk have the yacht. Maybe we’ll get invited to a party there once or twice. BJ meetup.
JPL
@dmsilev: Oh no! That would really hurt Putin.
dr. luba
@Hellbastard:
People have been asking how they can help Ukraine. If you wish to donate, below are three options that seem good to me:
1. Chef Andres World Center Kitchen: they were the first on the scene, and have been feeding refugees in Poland and now Romania.
2. Medical Aid: the Leleka Foundation of Chicago partners with Ukrainian organizations to provide medical and first aid supplies. As they write: “In the time of the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine, we are focusing on the urgent provision of critical medical supplies to Ukraine’s defenders and civilians. For this purpose, we have rebuilt the logistics chain to deliver all supplies to Poland from where our partners deliver them further to recipients in Ukraine.”
3. Aid to the Ukrainian military. The National Bank of Ukraine has opened a special fundraising account to support the Armed Forces of Ukraine. North Americans can use Google Pay to donate. Click on the green box that says “transfer from a card” .
eclare
@Ha: I think there just wasn’t the awareness of how much Russia wanted to destroy Western democracy. That was in 2008. And Romney was mocked in 2012 for saying Russia was our biggest political foe.
Then 2016 happened.
trollhattan
@Lyrebird:
I’d manage to sink a yacht, but would never sink a mansion. I’m in.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
jesus
this is all bluff and show for the folks at home, right? RIGHT?
Peale
@eclare: also Putin and Mendev were just switching leadership positions. Putin hadn’t become dictator for life then.
Ksmiami
So Adam; there’s 3 outcomes?
1. Russia/ Ukraine negotiations that give Putin a way to de-escalate and yet western nations still defang Russia
2. Lamp post and civil breakdown in Russia
3. genocide in Ukraine followed by n——- w—?
Please advise?
dr. luba
@tom: There’s a large rally in downtown Detroit (Hart Plaza) right now. A friend of mine (not Ukrainian, but was involved in charitable work in Ukraine) came from Ann Arbor to take part. She’s been an activist for years, and says this is the biggest rally she’s ever attended.
Frank Wilhoit
@Felanius Kootea: His face and behavior say steroids.
Ksmiami
@dr. luba: donated- thank you
debbie
@Mary G:
Well, that’ll piss off the RWNJs.
eclare
@Peale: Another good point.
The Pale Scot
@Ha:
Georgia started the war, Georgia isn’t between the EU and it’s gas supply, Ukraine has a large international diaspora, they’re just 80 yrs behind the Irish, Georgia is also the birthplace of Stalin, AKA the Georgians are kinda nuts
Alce _e_ardillo
Adam, I would like to assume that Biden and his NatSec apparatus has e worked through every contingency…..please say ???
@JoyceH: booby traps for one thing. Also may have removed components to make them unusable.
debbie
@Brachiator:
Futures seem to be up a bit.
Redshift
@Peale:
I’ve been wondering the same thing. I checked weather this week for Kyiv and it’s above freezing during the day (though the low temp is below.) I also noticed that almost all the footage and pictures we see of Russian armor shows them on roads. That may just be where it’s easier to get pictures, but I can’t help wondering if it means the warmer temperatures are restricting their movements.
Frank Wilhoit
@BC in Illinois: Decisions are for losers.
mrmoshpotato
@Lyrebird:
Unless he moves, delk’s yacht would be moored in Lake Michigan. You wanna jet to fly from London?
cain
@cain:
Looks like there was an entire post about it that I missed.
Frankensteinbeck
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
The thing is, saying crazy shit is SOP for Putin and Russian television. They lie as often as Trump, including chest thumping. They’re just a lot less incoherently stupid about it. Statements from Russia are useless, and all we can really do is watch what they do and try not to freak out at whatever the latest lie is.
debbie
@Another Scott:
Comments indicate it was a Russian-stolen Ukrainian tractor.
Redshift
@Hellbastard: There’s this link with lots of good resources in the “War in Ukraine” category (up top on a computer or in the menu on a phone.)
mrmoshpotato
@Frank Wilhoit:
Are you trying to hurt George Warcriminal Bush’s feelings?
debbie
@Leto:
“Almost” treasonous, Mitt? ?
Another Scott
@debbie: I wouldn’t be surprised. I only about 50%-trust what appears on Oryx’s web page.
If true, it shows – yet again – how horrible VVP’s supply and support lines are though!
Thanks.
Cheers,
Scott.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
I’m reminded of the “These sanctions are designed to kill Putin” tweet
@Frankensteinbeck: Yeah, I think I need to log off for a while….
debbie
@eclare:
It will be interesting to see how/if this evolves. The Ohio RWNJ candidates for Portman’s seat all contend that it’s China.
Redshift
@Frankensteinbeck: Also, there wasn’t this response when Putin seized part of Ukraine back in 2014, similar to what he did in Georgia.
realbtl
I’m going to park my super yacht next to Manchin’s puny house boat and laugh at him.
Kelly
@Redshift: Thinking further about the two Russian vehicles buried to their chassis in the mud. Could it have been intentional? The ruts just go straight into the bog and it two vehicles. Wouldn’t the second one have noticed the first one bogging down?
The Pale Scot
That’s the best thing I’ve seen in weeks
“Just get this sucker in the barn and it’s mine”
Kelly
Don’t want a super yacht. Couldn’t afford to fill the fuel tank.
Another Scott
@James E Powell:
KyivIndependent news feed:
Cheers,
Scott.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@Dorothy A. Winsor: Winter War of ’39 all over again.
Redshift
@debbie: Well technically, it’s not treason if we’re not formally at war, it’s only sedition. (And we all know how careful Republicans are with keeping their accusations technically accurate…)
Spanky
@Leto: Someone should ask the Mittster why he’s on their team.
The Dangerman
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Circa 1985, I was having a business dinner with an Old Submariner who told me (a drink or two into the night) that if a Soviet Boomer approached launch depth (whatever the fuck that is), we would sink it.
Whoever said it above is half right; if they launched, a whole bunch of the missiles blow up. That’s the good news. Bad news is a whole bunch don’t.
burnspbesq
@Spanky:
Futures markets go 24/7.
Lyrebird
@mrmoshpotato: Oh yeah! I like your thinking.
I’ll take the private jet and keep living where groceries cost about 1/10th of what they do in London. Same with airport parking. Then I can visit London *and* hope for a yacht party invite.
Laughing is good for our sanity and it helps the invaders keep losing the war of worldwide opinion, win!
Gravenstone
@Another Scott: I always wanted my own APC…
germy
Footage:
Captain C
@Ha: Shrubya was President at the time of the Georgia war (and don’t forget that once Obama did gain the Presidency, Republicans did everything they could to thwart his Presidency; I’m sure they would have sided with Hitler over Obama given the opportunity, and history since then has pretty much demonstrated this).
I suspect it was a number of factors–Georgia is farther away, with a much smaller diaspora; Putin didn’t go in full-force and attack cities with his full armed forces, but kept to limited aims (taking full control of the separatist areas of Abkhazia and South Ossetia); Saakashvili was very stupid and gave Putin a provocation to respond to, such that Putin could at least (at that time) somewhat credibly claim to be going in to prevent ethnic cleansing and a humanitarian disaster; this was 2008, and thus before the world saw what Putin would do in Donbas and Syria; everyone has a smart phone now, so when a Kyiv apartment complex is blasted by a missile, we can see it almost in real time…
burnspbesq
@mrmoshpotato:
Yacht’s no use to me, but I’ll take Chelsea Football Club and a big ol’ flat around the corner from Stamford Bridge.
zhena gogolia
@Leto: In the full interview, he says, “There’s no place in EITHER party for this” [hanging around with white supremacists]. Interesting. How many elected Democratic officials are hanging around with white supremacists? Sorry, fuck Mitt.
Kent
@Peale: Russian tanks stuck in the mud
https://twitter.com/NewVoiceUkraine/status/1497920770474917890?s=20&t=_jyyuyr7pry7CVbHqHojMA
debbie
@germy:
A real smoker would never waste an already-lit cigarette, no matter the consequences!
Redshift
As much as I’d like to believe these measures will make the oligarchs turn on Putin, apparently the opposite happened with the oligarchs who were sanctioned after Crimea. I was listening to Preet Bharara’s interview with international security expert Kimberly Martin, and she pointed out that that these guys aren’t rich because they’re brilliant businessmen, they’re rich solely because of their connections to a corrupt system. So even if sanctions hit them hard, trying to get rid of Putin is still a huge roll of the dice.
Sebastian
@The Pale Scot:
It’s also classified as icebreaker if I am not mistaken
debbie
@Redshift:
I think they’re not as careful as they used to be, which is why they’re so ridiculous now.
Spanky
@germy: What’s Ukrainian for “hold my beer?”
A: “Тримай моє пиво”
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: The inverse is true. Bring it on then if Russia just wants to blow it all up. Putin made it clear that he isn’t stopping with Ukraine and likely has regime change in Westminster in mind.
Even Putin gets what he wants today in the Ukriane, tomorrow he will pissy and screaming about the evil West because it went to crap because his plans suck ass. Appeasement just in worth it, Putin has to get his head out of as.
Brachiator
@debbie:
This is a challenge for Republicans since Romney is perceived by some as disloyal to party and to Trump. Some of the usual gang of idiots are trying to use this to bash Obama and the Democrats.
Before the invasion, some conservative pundits were insisting that nobody in America cared about Ukraine and that Biden was making a mistake in trying to make it a big deal.
The Fox News/Republican propaganda alliance are working hard to come up with a new foreign policy lie for the RWNJ candidates since none of what they spew represents independent thinking.
Expletive Deleted
Obviously the war itself and Ukraine’s survival is the most important thing, but as an aside something I’ve been wondering about is what the knock-on effect will be on the propaganda machine/culture wars if Putin is gone, or at least too broke or distracted to keep up the endless cold cyber war.
I’ve seen some snarky comments about rightwingers going quiet after the swift shut off, but for reals; do we think we’re about to get a glimpse at what the internet looks like without floods of trolls spewing covid misinfortmation to and starting pop culture wars?
Redshift
@burnspbesq: There are a lot more of us than them, so we’ll need to divide things up. I’d happily accept a free timeshare on a swanky London flat.
Captain C
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: What are the chances that the Russian boomers each have a Virgina- or Los Angeles-class trailer in torpedo range right now? Also, this woofin’ idiot on Russian State TV must have an IQ high enough to understand that 500 warheads coming out of Russian subs guarantees the end of Russia, yes?
eclare
@debbie: I honestly don’t know which is the bigger threat between China and Russia, maybe they are equal in different ways.
But I sure as hell didn’t know what Russia would do to destroy the west, between 2016 and Brexit, back in 2012.
Uncle Cosmo
@Adam L Silverman: I know you know this, but FTR there are rail links to Ukraine from Poland, Slovakia and Romania at least. My mostly-uninformed guess is that most of the heavy stuff would proceed from or through Germany via either of the first two. (I rode on trains to or from them when I visited in the 2010s.) Problem is that Ukrainian rail gauge is the old Soviet one and differs from that used further west, so there would probably be a holdup at the border while the railcar bogeys are adjusted. Nothing show-stopping – something on the order of a couple of hours max per train (this happened at 3 AM when my train from Kosice in Slovakia reached the Ukrainian border, and went on simultaneously with passport and customs control). And I’ll bet the railworkers on the Ukrainian side would be super motivated to get it done ASAP.
Gravenstone
@germy: First impression was who had the bigger balls, the dude carrying it or the cameraman walking step by step with him? Eventually the camera stops though…
Redshift
@Brachiator: They’re also all-in on China because it does double duty with racism. Anti-Chinese racism comes as easily as breathing to their base, whereas Russians are just foreign white people with funny accents.
West of the Cascades
@Frankensteinbeck: Also August 2008 was a really, really bad time for the world economy, so (as I vaguely recall) the Russian invasion was very much underneath everyone’s radar. President Biden and the Europeans have made sure that isn’t the case this time.
Kelly
@Kent: Now I see why they’re both stuck. There’s a tow cable between them
Mary G
@Spanky: oops. Thanks for the correction.
Bruce K in ATH-GR
@mrmoshpotato:
When I was young and ignorant, I would have taken that offer up in a heartbeat, but now I’m older, sadder, wiser, and know that between fuel, maintenance, crewing, and other upkeep, the only way I could handle owning a yacht would be to go in debt to a Russian oligarch.
Gravenstone
@Kent: Second vehicle looks like a self propelled gun. Still, if this is current, neither one is moving without substantial recovery efforts.
Mallard Filmore
@Another Scott: “HEY !!! STOP! STOP! THAT’S MY TANK!”
Martin
@Redshift: I think you’re seriously underestimating how hard it is to get poor once you get rich. You pretty much have to actively work to lose money.
eclare
@The Pale Scot: That is awesome!
Brachiator
@burnspbesq:
Dow Jones futures open Sunday at 6 p.m. ET, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures.
David ? ☘The Establishment☘? Koch
Well boys, I reckon this is it: new-clear combat, toe to toe with the Russkies.
dr. luba
@trollhattan: No, still the same. Correction has been put out the Klitschko misspoke.
Captain C
@Redshift: If Putin can’t keep them rich, though, they have no incentive to keep supporting him, and in fact every reason to get rid of him before their own damage becomes too great. The sanctions being put in place now are far harsher than the ones after the Crimea invasion.
I think Putin’s rather extreme precautions these days aren’t just due to COVID fear, but an awareness of this fact.
eclare
@germy: Also awesome. I wonder what he’s planning to do with it?
Spanky
@Mary G: No probs. +834 was Friday’s closing number, in the midst of the invasion. Tomorrow’s markets will be interesting.
The Dangerman
@Captain C: Majority of them. Maybe not all of them which is a problem.
Spanky
@Mallard Filmore: That’s what I thought. The guy was chasing the repo man.
Geminid
@Redshift: With China, Republicans try to wriggle past the obvious charge of racism by emphasizing that that it’s the Chinese Communist Party that they are whipping up fear against, and not the Chinese people. Then it’s back to China this, and China that.
Raven Onthill
A few notes:
Sebastian
@Uncle Cosmo:
These are the real freedom truckers.
debbie
Betty Cracker
Rolling Stone correspondent Jack Crosbie filed an interesting report from Kharkiv, which is close to the Russian border and therefore in danger of being overrun. Mostly he’s milling around a hotel lobby, the train station and an underground shelter, talking to ordinary people caught up in the events.
Kharkiv is a college town, so lots of foreign students are trying to get back home. Crosbie interviews a young Nigerian who managed to get a train out of town. Other people hanging out at the station are ordinary Ukrainians who want to travel west. Some are trying to evacuate with their pets:
Here’s Crosbie’s picture of Olga and Simon:
Y’all may have already discussed this, but the WaPo says the Snake Island border guards who were thought to have been killed after they told the Russian warship to go fuck itself may have survived! Ukrainian officials are trying to confirm Russian media reports that indicate at least some lived and are being held in Crimea.
eclare
@burnspbesq: Not enough sun, no beach. Anywhere in the Caribbean is fine with me.
Spanky
@debbie: I’m sure she misspoke, and had meant to say Preznit Pooty Poot.
germy
@eclare:
I was wondering that myself.
debbie
Whoa! Major turnout in Prague!
Baud
@Sebastian:
Brinks Trucks of Ammo!
Kelly
This seems important EU countries will provide fighter jets to Ukraine
https://twitter.com/AFP?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
debbie
Also Berlin
Brachiator
@Redshift:
Yeah, you’re right. Plus the right (and some of the left) love to bash China for taking our jobs and technology. And you have that Orwellian thing. For most of my life, the Soviet Union was the implacable eternal foe, and for a while, Republicans seemed unable to distinguish between Russia and the former Soviet Union. Then magically, under Trump, we needed a new enemy and that was China, while Russia was his trusted buddy.
Not sure when GOP members of Congress started going to Russia for parties, uh I mean trade missions.
Redshift
@Geminid: And that also puts China in three of their favorite xenophobia categories – big&scary, non-white, and commies.
debbie
Uncle Cosmo
@jnfr: Just to be clear: The real sticking point there was deploying Pershing II ballistic missiles with sufficient range to hit Moskva. Cruise missiles fly at subsonic speeds and would have taken ~2 hr from launcher to target; the Pershing IIs could have delivered a nuclear bomb with 5x the yield of Little Boy (Hiroshima) onto targets in the western USSR within 6-10 minutes.
From what I’ve read, the Pershing IIs could not have reached Moscow from West Germany – but the Soviets were convinced, not only that they could, but were also fitted with ground penetration warheads able to take out hardened targets like command & control installations. In which case the missiles would have represented a first-strike threat to decapitate the USSR within 10 minutes of whenever the US launched them.
Scary days!
eclare
@debbie: So cute! I hope they crawl all over him while he lifts.
David ? ☘The Establishment☘? Koch
Germany mobilizes airborne division – yikes! (link)
Kent
@Gravenstone: Some of my misspent younger years were in agriculture. Sometime when you get a vehicle like that stuck up to the axles in mud there isn’t any getting it out until the mud hardens. Although I’m sure the Russians have lots of jury-rigged ways to deal with this sort of thing as most of Russia is mud. This won’t be the first time they’ve seen it.
eclare
@David ? ☘The Establishment☘? Koch: Hahaha…glad for some humor!
dr. luba
@Brachiator: The Hillbilly Elegist has suddenly become very concerned about Ukraine,and how Biden isn’t doing enough to help. After, of course, condemning Biden for doing anything.
Apparently it has come to his attention that there are at least 80K Ukrainian voters in Ohio…..
Miss Bianca
@mrmoshpotato:
Sure! Aren’t some of those oligarchs’ private jets going to be impounded as well?
Yutsano
@eclare: I was gonna say: are we just gonna ignore the fact that Zelenskyy is kinda jacked?
Kelly
@debbie: I read this morning Zelenskyy is the voice of Paddington Bear in the Ukrainian dub
debbie
No idea who this Ukrainian is, but he’s way tougher than Putin:
LadySuzy
Ouch… Big, big Russian convoy heading towards Kiev.
So sad for many Russian soldiers who don’t want to be there, but I hope this convoy is stopped.
LadySuzy
I forgot to post the link to Sky News.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_gDmMVzjIVw
Redshift
@Raven Onthill:
I’m sure he has better troops, but probably not enough of them to cover a country as big as Ukraine. There was the thread from a military analyst yesterday (I think it was posted here) about how corruption and unwillingness to admit bad news to superiors have resulted in unexpectedly weak forces – units have “ghost soldiers”, i.e. they’re under strength, and commanders hide that fact, and higher level commanders don’t want to admit it either, so the top level commanders don’t know. Then when it was go time, they staffed up with poorly-trained conscripts.
I have no way of knowing of that’s accurate, but it certainly proposes an alternate explanation to Putin holding back
Raven Onthill
Is anyone else scared? I sure am.
The Pale Scot
@Kelly:
A new Flying Tigers group is needed. I wouldn’t be surprised if some hotshots would grab a chance to go up against a peer competitor instead of bombing huts
Miss Bianca
@debbie: Why, it’s almost as if ol’ Sleepy Joe actually knew what he was doing, huh?
Raven Onthill
@Redshift: I like that explanation. Cold War Soviet conventional forces were always weaker than claimed and perhaps this is also true of current Russian forces. At the same time I worry that our contempt for an adversary is leading us to underestimate them.
Another Scott
@Raven Onthill: Dictators usually keep their most powerful and most loyal forces for self-preservation.
E.g. Wikipedia: Tanks of Iraq:
(Emphasis added.)
I wouldn’t be at all surprised if VVP were doing the same.
More at the link.
Cheers,
Scott.
Sebastian
@Bruce K in ATH-GR:
They say the two happiest days of boat ownership is the day you buy it and the day you sell it.
The Pale Scot
@debbie:
Is that a Scottish Terrier? Googles not saying
Miss Bianca
@dr. luba: Kay was posting some hilarious takes yesterday on Hillbilly
Elitist’sElegist’s grumpy grudging concession to the fact that he’s now suddenly supposed to CARE about Ukraine! He’s supposed to CARE about people other than himself and maybe his mom!Miss Bianca
@Raven Onthill: No. No one else is scared. You’re all alone out there, buddy.
ETA: Jesus. Enough already with the doom-mongering. Life is rough enough.
debbie
@Miss Bianca:
Imagine that!
eclare
@Yutsano: No, we are not ignoring that at all!
debbie
@The Pale Scot:
I assumed Cocker Spaniel, but I can’t even find its face.
Roger Moore
@Sebastian:
They were also probably told that if they didn’t go, they’d be executed for desertion. Every military has a ferocious set of penalties for soldiers who refuse to fight when commanded. It’s a good bet that a lot of the soldiers who “blunder” into surrendering know perfectly well what they’re doing but feel the need for some kind of excuse, both to save face and to cover their asses legally.
Betty
@BC in Illinois: I think they have decided on both at the same time.
Martin
@LadySuzy: that’s coming through the Chernobyl exclusion zone, or maybe along the edge of it to continue that push into Kyiv from the northwest. That’s where the Chechyn troops were sent, and where their leader was killed. That’s where the airports are.
It’s kind of an obvious point of attack, and also an obvious point to defend. Far as I’ve heard, Russia still hasn’t taken the airport there, which had to have been a key first objective.
Sebastian
@Baud:
Those Polish drivers are loading up on coffee and driving 24/7. Krakow to Lviv is 250 miles, without loading/unloading/weighing/customs it’s a 4 hour drive each way.
Judging by the distinctive air intakes those look like Iveco Eurocargo, capable of up to 19t per truck.
We are looking at up to 200t in that segment of the convoy alone.
The Pale Scot
Sad Trombone, I still like guy I guess
Alce _e_ardillo
@Captain C: How much would it cost to suborn his guards. Presumably they have families also and are not keen on being incinerated.
eclare
@debbie: And he says it all so matter-of-factly. Definitely scary.
Matt McIrvin
@cain: As of about Saturday morning they have always been at war with Eurasia.
PIGL
@Cacti: I guess neutrality stops at the prospect of Russian troops rolling through Finland up to their borders.
SiubhanDuinne
@trollhattan:
Adam!! We need your banhammer in Aisle 100!
:-)
Ceci n est pas mon nym
@debbie: Powerful stuff. If I was some scared miserable Russian conscript seeing the casualties and the burned out tanks, I think it would have a pretty powerful effect on me. Both the threats and the promises of hot food and working electricity.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see mass desertions in the coming week, if they can get messages to that out to the Russian troops.
eclare
@Miss Bianca: That and treating other people/countries with respect go a long way.
Brachiator
@Raven Onthill:
RE: There had been a lot of talk that the sanctions imposed by the European Union and the United States were insufficient to deter the Russians. But the scale of those sanctions has escalated dramatically over the last 48 hours.
I have just recently seen the news about the EU ramping up sanctions.
The news is moving so fast on this it is hard to keep up and digest it all.
We can only hope that Putin might be smart enough to back out if things go against him.
I am hopeful that the Biden administration will continue to handle this thing competently. Otherwise, there is not much to do. And we should be cautious about making too much, positive or negative, about hourly reporting and speculation about unfolding events.
Captain C
@Redshift: If Putin is “holding back,” it would be like if, during the Iraq War, we had spearheaded the assault with a bunch of National Guardsmen driving M-60 tanks and flying F-4s, ignored SEAD, and other than a few companies of SEALS and suchlike flying around doing random, pointless assaults nowhere near the rest of the U.S. forces, had sent none of our best in. That is, really, really stupid. Perhaps someone with military experience can tell me differently, but I would think if you’re going in heavy you send at least some of your best units and do your best to suppress enemy air first.
Chris T.
In my useless and uninformed opinion, what should happen now is that Germany should say something like “In light of Russia’s unprovoked attack on Ukraine, we have changed our stance on admitting Ukraine to NATO. Should Russia immediately cease, we’ll take a long view and think. Otherwise we are for adding Ukraine to NATO.”
PIGL
@Mary G: Adam I second Mary G’s comment here.
Thank you for this and all your past work for us.
Adam L Silverman
@Ha: It was because George W Bush was president.
eclare
@Raven Onthill: As long as Joe/NATO/UKR don’t underestimate RUS, I’m up for contemptuous mocking, like a tractor towing an APC.
Another Scott
NATO has had a couple of giant air refueling tankers in the air over Poland and Romania for several days. They’re both over Romania now. I assume that there are actually more, covering other NATO countries, but those are the ones in the “top 5” at FlightRadar24 at the moment. I guess the USAF Global Hawks are in Sicily, resting, as they’re not obviously out and about at the moment.
Cheers,
Scott.
Kelly
@Kent: Truck Got Stuck – Corb Lund
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pDY6bWT5oTM&ab_channel=LooseMusic
Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes
@germy:
Thats pretty impressive. I guess you leave it in a field and shoot at it until it blows.
Captain C
@Alce _e_ardillo: If I had to guess, more than any individual oligarch has (as the penalties for all involved would be rather extreme, I would think) in normal times, and all it takes is one person to rat the plot out for it to go bad. Now, I suspect the price is starting to inch downwards. I suspect though, his closest guards have been extremely vetted for loyalty and may well have their families being held effectively hostage in some way.
JPL
@Adam L Silverman: Hasn’t Putin already crossed a line which will prevent him from staying in power? If Russia did target residents, wouldn’t that be a case for the Hague? Talking heads mention that we shouldn’t further isolate him, and I really don’t understand that type of comment. He did it to himself.
James E Powell
@Ha:
@Barbara:
This kind of thing happens a lot. Cf. Bank bailouts.
Geminid
@Miss Bianca: This time last week Vance was being assailed for his discreditable attack on General McCaffrey. Vance will be lucky to finish 5th in that primary.
That’s a good thing. The Mandel, Timken, and Gibbons camps can turn their fire onto each other now, and do Tim Ryan’s work for free.
James E Powell
@ARoomWithAMoose:
According to current Republican history, there never was a president named George W Bush. That’s just fake history. We went from the socialist, scandal plagued Clinton administration directly to the socialist, Muslim, anti-white people Obama administration.
trollhattan
@SiubhanDuinne:
Truly honored it was you, who pulled the alarm. :-)
JPL
Reuters: U.N. SECURITY COUNCIL CONVENES RARE EMERGENCY MEETING OF GENERAL ASSEMBLY ON UKRAINE, TO BE HELD MONDAY
Kyle Griffin (@kylegriffin1) / Twitter
Martin
The 2nd front opens in about 8 hours when 150 million Russians discover they can’t get money for groceries.
I dare say, this seems to be working. Russia is getting nowhere in Ukraine, and they’ve invited a shit-ton of domestic pain in return.
JoyceH
@The Pale Scot: The bigger one has a Samoyed-ish look to me.
Another Scott
@Raven Onthill: Remember what Biden said when he gave his speech on February 18 saying that VVP would invade within days, and a reporter asked him how he was so sure?
“We have a significant intelligence capability.”
The US and NATO are not operating blind. Ramping up for war is not something that can be hidden these days.
My $0.02.
Cheers,
Scott.
japa21
@trollhattan: Only because I was still groaning too hard to type.
James E Powell
@germy:
If it ever happens that I am obliged to carry a mine any distance, I would very like start smoking again.
Kent
@Captain C: They notion they sent their worst in first is ridiculous on its face.
Anyone who has been around military operations planning knows that the elite units and their commanders are always clamoring for leading roles in any action. Yes, you keep forces in reserve for a reason. But you also send in your best to get the job done. I expect Russia is no different. The most aggressive and competent commanders are going to be leading the crack units and they are going to be the ones lining up to go first. Therein lies promotions, advancement, and such.
James E Powell
@debbie:
How come we don’t do that here?
dimmsdale
@Another Scott: Been noticing them over the last several days, along with a couple of UAVs (FORTE11 and FORTE12) operating at 50K feet. Not clear to me what exactly they’re refueling up there. Every now and then, a random F16 shows up, presumably NATO. None directly over Ukrainian airspace, but it’s nice to know we have some eyes up there.
Kelly
@Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes:
Seems likely. When I was 16 my older sister was dating a guy fresh from his Army tour in Vietnam. He was a demolition guy. I asked him about disarming booby traps, referencing movie scenes where there courageous UXB guy deftly removes the trigger mechanism. He told me he never did that. He just put some C4 as close to the booby trap as he dared then blew it up.
Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes
@Raven Onthill:
Your concern is noted. Fuck off.
Sebastian
@debbie:
Yellow tape means territorial defense, i.e. civilians who signed up for duty. He seems to be a veteran, though.
Roger Moore
@Another Scott:
And it appears our intel was quite a bit deeper than just satellite photography. We seem to have been intercepting Russian communications and/or had well placed sources who could turn Russian plans over to us.
WaterGirl
@Hellbastard: Click on War in Ukraine in the category bar up top. On mobile, it’s the top item in the hamburger menu.
japa21
@dimmsdale:
Which means Ukraine also has eyes up there. No doubt, as important as all the weaponry and supp,lies are important, the intel being supplied by the EU, etc, is almost as important. Sometimes, it seems Ukraine has known what the Russians were going to do before the Russians did.
Baud
@Sebastian:
Man, Polish truckers really hate vaccine mandates.
Leto
I’ve heard you lot love pictures. Here’s a bunch of tanks stuck in the mud. I’m glad I wasn’t in the Army :)
burnspbesq
There are widespread reports of ATMs in major cities running out of cash.
There’s likely to be a run on every bank in the country tomorrow—if they even open.
It will only be a matter of days before all the bread and toilet paper are gone.
Shit, meet fan.
eclare
@Baud: ROFL!
FelonyGovt
Adam, I wanted to add my voice to thank you for these posts. Definitely the best source for reliable information about this.
Captain C
@Kent: I suspect any allied commander or planner who said something like, “Hey, let’s not send the Big Red One to Omaha beach, just a few companies of green recruits fresh out of basic should be fine, why do we need all these ships and airplanes anyway?” would have been cashiered if not outright jailed as an incompetent traitor.
SamIAm
I was thinking yesterday that NATO should enforce a no fly zone in western Ukraine if for no other reason then to ensure the refugees are safe to escape. But I was very pleasantly surprised that the Ukrainian Air Force is not only functional but still effective. And with the news they’re getting fighters shipped to them I even more encouraged.
I tear up everytime I think of how brave and tenacious the Ukrainian people are
Mary G
@burnspbesq: Which country, Ukraine or USA?
WaPo just now:
E.U. to ban Russian flights from airspace as Putin puts nuclear forces on high alert
Leto
@burnspbesq: This is video from today: Russians have found out about the sanctions and the SWIFT ban. A Bank Run seems to have begun
Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes
I think I’ve told this story before, but I’ll tell it again.
About 30 some odd years ago, there was an elder Ukraine-Russian gent at our Orthodox parish here in Louisville. Most peaceful, cheerful man I ever knew, from the area of the Donbass, spoke very little English, but understood well. An absolute workhorse, he’d thrown himself into any physical task the Parish had. Didn’t know his history until after he died.
Seems that he’d been conscripted early in the Great Patriotic War by the valiant People’s Red Army, and fought Nazis all the way from Ukraine all the way to the far banks of the Elbe, and undoubtedly saw war in a way that would give any man a lifetime of nightmares. Somehow, he didn’t get repatriated, and wound up coming to America with a special supply of skills. Managed to get himself into the US Army and wound up as an NCO, leading ski troopers during the Korean conflict.
I think about his obvious physical courage a lot at moments like this, and how he separated the notion that he was obviously a tough, brave killing machine from the cheerful, peaceful citizen he became.
I like to think he’d be proud of his countrymen today.
Uncle Cosmo
I’m guessing that boomers on station lurk ~100 m down, running as quiet as possible hoping to avoid detection – but in order to launch their missiles they need to be much shallower. The missiles can’t fire up their motors inside the sub or they’d burn a hole in it; therefore they sit in containers with gas generating devices that when activated provide enough overpressure to pop the rocket up out of its tube like a dart from a blowgun, and the first stage ignites after its exhaust cones have cleared the surface. There must be a (probably known but no doubt highly classified) depth at which the gas generator can propel the missile out of the water while keeping enough water above the launch deck to prevent damage to the sub so it can keep launching – but it’s certainly much shallower than the lurking depth.
Presumably Navy hunter-killer subs pick up every Russki boomer as it heads out to station, and lurk within torpedo range, listening intently. Presumably, should they ever pick up the telltale sounds of the boomer rising from the depths, gas generators firing up and outer hatches opening in preparation for launch, the US subs are authorized to “sink their bones to Davy Jones” before they can get anything off.
eclare
@Mary G: Russia
dmsilev
@burnspbesq:
So, just like March 2020 here then.
Sebastian
NATO can’t send units into Ukraine but what are you going to do about “volunteers” going “themselves”?
Remember, most countries’ laws state you lose citizenship if you participate in armed conflict for any other nation. This is huge.
Omnes Omnibus
@Leto: JFC, you don’t just barge in like that. Send a wheeled vehicle to see how bad it is. Recon, it’s not just for breakfast.
Kent
@Sebastian: The French Foreign Legion is letting all its Ukrainians go back to Ukraine with full combat gear.
https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1497841138811785218?s=20&t=q-vGp4EWnohse4aw5Y0h0A
Ruckus
@Sebastian:
Having owned a 30 ft sailboat I can honestly say that yes, the two happiest days are the first and the last.
It is fun to sail though, I will say that unequivocally.
Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes
@Ruckus:
The best boat is always your friend’s boat. Everyone know this.
West of the Cascades
@burnspbesq: Fortunately, all the Russians in line withdrawing rubles from ATMs right now will be able to use them as toilet paper once they are completely worthless.
tybee
@realbtl:
Kent
Unless they were fleeing fire of some sort and needed to get off the road.
eclare
@Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes:
I’m sure he would be.
Roger Moore
@Kent:
They probably didn’t send their worst in first, but it’s quite likely they didn’t send their best in first, either. As I understand Russian doctrine, they plan on leading off with bloody, sledge-hammer attacks designed to crush the enemy’s front line. Once the front line is crushed, they send through follow up forces that dash as rapidly as possible to seize critical objectives deep in enemy territory. Those follow-up attacks are bolstered by some attacks by special forces and other elite units trying to seize critical objectives well behind the front lines.
The initial attacks are important, but the follow-up is actually more important. So the initial attack is launched by good units but not the very best. They need to win those fights, but the units involved are going to take high casualties and need substantial recovery to be useful again. The very best units are reserved for the follow-up and the strikes behind enemy lines, since those are what is actually supposed to win the war.
You can see some of this with the Russian attack on the airport outside Kyiv. That was carried out by the kind of elite forces that were not used in the initial strike. The goal was to capture the airport, bring in heavier forces by air, and be able to get into Kyiv before the Ukrainians could respond. The forces landed at the airport couldn’t sustain operations for very long just using supply by air, but before they ran out of supplies the attack from Belarus was supposed to link up with them. Ukraine’s successful defense of the airport was a major blow to the Russian plans. They beat some of the best troops Russia has, and they gave the defenders of Kyiv time to prepare for the main ground attack.
Sebastian
@Kent:
Yeah, read about that. However, considering how pacifistic and lawful Dans are, something bigger is afoot here. This is a monumental departure from two centuries of established policy.
I would not be surprised if the “volunteers” sign up in groups of 100, miraculously knowing each other, and finding high-tech gear ready exactly like the ones they used at their old job, er, two days ago.
Mo MacArbie
At this point, anyone fearing nuclear war after cheering on the meteor is guilty of the rankest hypocrisy.
Sebastian
@Kent:
Like with Jehowa’s Witnesses, they wanted to get away from the Church of St. Javelin.
Calouste
@Sebastian: I think I read yesterday that the French Foreign Legion allowed Ukrainians who are part of it to go to Ukraine to fight. Also, the UK foreign secretary said that they would back UK citizens to go to Ukraine and fight.
Brachiator
@Another Scott:
Also, too, we don’t have a president who depends on Fox News for intelligence briefings.
Kent
That would be an act of war. Because it would mean shooting down Russian planes. Might as well just send in a couple of armored divisions.
Ruckus
@Captain C:
I served during the draft days of Vietnam. The people serving ran the gamut of skills and humanity. There may be a force of really, really dangerous people somewhere but if it’s just citizens they all run the gamut of skills and humanity. The training can make a difference to a degree but if someone doesn’t really want to be there, very little is going to change their mind.
eclare
@West of the Cascades: So true!
Captain C
@Kent:
I think the only reason you would hold them back is a) you already have enough elite units at the spearhead to do the job, and b) you want that particular elite unit really angry when they step off.
Spanky
I for one am not going to shed a tear if the St. Petersburg troll shops get shut down because no one’s getting paid. I hope it comes to that.
Kent
@Roger Moore: I don’t think it is a question of best vs not so best. It is more of a question of different units being designed and armed around different objectives. The heavy armor and artillery that you would send in on a first assault is different from the lighter troops you would send in to follow up. Doesn’t make one “better” than the other. Are the Rangers better than the 1st Armored Division? More “elite” maybe, but not “better” as a fighting force.
I doubt the Russians are sending in reserve units (equivalent of National Guard) to be the tip of their spear.
hotshoe
@Geminid:
@Miss Bianca:
Yes, just how many times did he fall out that window.
That’s the question I want to hear.
JPL
@Sebastian: US would have volunteers for both sides.
Ruckus
@Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes:
It’s true even when you own your own! A buddy had a 36 ft catamaran that was of course far faster than a mono hull and it could sail about 3-4 times the speed of my boat. Neither was quite the same as going full speed in a US navy DDG.
Kent
No, Germany doesn’t need to be SAYING things. They don’t run NATO anyway. Germany needs to be DOING things, like helping arm Ukraine and sanction Russia. The war will be long over before any discussion of NATO expansion ever takes shape.
debbie
Morzer
@Kelly: And apparently he can do the hard stare as well. Paddington 1 Putin 0.
debbie
Yarrow
Zelensky is the Ukrainian voice of Paddington. The picture in this tweet is awesome. Sorry, you have to click through to see it.
Morzer
@Redshift: All pre-modern armies had ghost soldiers on their rolls. Often it was a way for commanders to make a bit of extra cash by selling their rations/collecting their pay. Looks like the Russian army, supposedly so big and scary, is still pre-modern in significant ways and not as big and scary as we were told. Also, credible reports that they don’t have up-to-date equipment for all their units. Putin massed a lot of men near the Ukraine, but not necessarily a lot of soldiers.
trollhattan
@Mo MacArbie: If “strategic meteors” did not exist in the same universe as “warp drive” then, maybe? Here on earth, strategic and tactical nuclear weapons exist, believe you me.
eclare
@debbie: So cute, but I bet she can cut a bitch.
Morzer
@tybee: I am going to park my superyacht on Manchin’s little rowboat and laugh as he struggles ashore cursing my name.
eclare
@Yarrow: Hahaha…
JPL
@Yarrow: Love that!
trollhattan
@Kent: Not just shoot down Russian planes but also take out ground-based antiaircraft assets. It’s another way of saying “make war” only without boots on the ground.
trollhattan
@Spanky: They could still spite-troll.
What if they get conscripted and have to go serve?
Peale
@Redshift: I’m imagining General Klink of the 9th Army calling HQ about the state of his troop. Which is just him. He’s the troop.
Quiltingfool
@marcopolo: Making quilts is a way for me to relieve anxiety; I went looking through my quilt photos and found one done in blues and yellows. Want to start making a quilt with Ukraine colors and maybe sunflowers, too.
https://pin.it/6J0xhPZ
eclare
@Quiltingfool: Lovely!
JPL
@Quiltingfool: Beautiful.
JPL
@eclare: Just curious, did you ever sleep last night. You were commenting into the wee hours. Of course, I would only know that because……
SamIAm
@Kent:
True, but Russian planes would have to pull the trigger first if they wanted to harass either refugees or Ukrainian armed forces.
The mere presence of NATO planes would act as a deterrent. I don’t recall any Russian fighter jets willing to engage US fighters in Syria even though Putin’s puppet was in office.
But then again I’m just a dog on the Internet so what do I know? ?
Yarrow
Kinda feel like this isn’t going to work well for her Senate campaign.
OMG the west is trying to cancel Russia! Cancel culture is out of control!
Another Scott
@Leto: Looks kinda like an airport terminal. Maybe travelers? It is a long line though…
Thanks.
Cheers,
Scott.
JPL
@Yarrow: Same excuse that Marjorie Taylor Greene used. She didn’t want to cancel supporters of America First. In other words, she gave a long incoherent statement about her appearance at a white nationalist convention.
West of the Rockies
Trump was visibly cowed by Putin. Putin is being revealed to be a weak and stupid goblin.
Trump, you were terrified by the 8th grade kid who just got his ass kicked during recess by three 2nd graders.
SamIAm
@Quiltingfool:
Beautiful!
Kent
I expect the Russians would call the bluff of any declared no fly zone over Ukraine by going about their business of air war as before and daring NATO planes to shoot them down. Which NATO would be forced to do in order to enforce a no-fly zone. And then we are in WW3 and you start risking Russian cruise missile strikes on NATO capitals and such.
MomSense
@Quiltingfool:
That’s beautiful!!
The Pale Scot
@Sebastian:
Lincoln Brigade, Flying Tigers,
Countries don’t have to prosecute
zhena gogolia
@Martin: You think the Russians haven’t noticed anything yet? They’re way ahead of you.
ghost cat
@Hellbastard: You might try this list and this one, both by Timothy Snyder. His twitter feed @TimothyDSnyder is also very informative.
He also recommends this list, which, in addition to groups needing financial assistance, has lots of links to trusted media sources, Ukrainian officials to follow, and twitter accounts
trollhattan
@Yarrow: “Just as wrong” doing lots of heavy lifting there.
eclare
@JPL: Hahaha…no. I get insomnia from time to time, and another friend does too, and with everything going on, we stayed up and texted about the news.
Which I know is the *worst* thing you can do, but I’m taking a break from work right now, so I tell myself I can always nap later.
ETA> I’m used to it. Two full days wo sleep is no biggie. On the third day things start to get weird…
The Thin Black Duke
Why do I feel like I’m stuck inside a Charlie Stross novel?
SamIAm
Oh, fun fact (and by fun I mean gut wrenchingly disturbing). Putin’s father served in a destruction battalion of the NKVD during WW II. For those who aren’t familiar with the sickening history of the destruction battalions they were created to terrorize civilian populations by doing things like burning people alive and breaking all bones in the hand of a 12 year old boy who had the audacity to fly the Estonian flag.
Putin’s father must be looking up from Hell with pride at how his boy turned into a sociopathic monster.
eclare
@SamIAm: “I learned it from you, Dad!” Ugh.
Another Scott
A small jet left Geneva and is heading to Moscow. “CL60”, no listed country information.
I assume it’s some sort of diplomat based on all the borders it has to cross. It’s good there are some lines of communication still open.
Cheers,
Scott.
Liminal Owl
@CROAKER: All gall is divided into three parts.
@Kelly: Speaking of mud… https://youtu.be/z4_CsuRugyE
@Leto:
patrick II
@Roger Moore:
I saw a Petreus interview where he said essentially the same thing.
Jinchi
Does anyone here know why the Russian vehicles all have a “Z” apparently hand painted on their sides?
The Pale Scot
Actual footage
Omnes Omnibus
My god, look at this. They are just sitting there.
Kelly
@Liminal Owl: Waist Deep in the Big Muddy, classic of it’s genre
zhena gogolia
@Omnes Omnibus: What does that mean?
JPL
The people who know Putin the best — people I know in Russia — are worried about his recent nuclear statement. The people who know him the least are saying it’s cheap talk.
Michael McFaul (@McFaul) / Twitter
Omnes Omnibus
@zhena gogolia: They are parked on a road. Artillery and Close Air Support could just destroy them at leisure.
ETA: It is insanely unprofessional.
japa21
@zhena gogolia: I think he means that they are really nice targets. Be interesting to know how much air cover they have.
zhena gogolia
@JPL: Could you link it so that the date stamp is in your comment? Then I can control click and get the tweet in an incognito window.
zhena gogolia
@Omnes Omnibus: Okay.
raven
@Omnes Omnibus: This is pretty good
japa21
@zhena gogolia: https://twitter.com/McFaul/status/1498065915665022983
Baud
@Omnes Omnibus:
Why haven’t they been?
trollhattan
@Omnes Omnibus: Yoikes.
In other circumstances the phrase “target-rich environment” would be uttered out loud by folks who would love a go at that. Pity Ukraine doesn’t have an enormous air force.
I remember during the buildup to Gulf War II Cheney Boogaloo, being at a wildlife refuge when a freight train rumbled along the trestle that passed through the grounds, pulling miles and miles of military equipment, painted in fresh desert camo. The reality of what was going to occur had not really hit me before that moment.
eclare
@zhena gogolia: I have the same question…
JoyceH
Couple things. I’ve been watching the news and two questions –
First – these ‘peace talks’ on the Belarus border, PLEASE tell me that Zelenskyy himself isn’t planning to attend!
Second – CNN keeps showing a ‘three mile long’ Russian convoy on its way toward Kyiv. On the road. So – someone is going to get ahead of them to destroy and/or booby trap the road, right? Right?
raven
@Omnes Omnibus: I was on a convoy running on a dirt road in triple canopy and the guy in the lead truck because he “heard a noise in his truck”. The sgt had me haul ass up to him and pointed his 16 at him and said “you better move this fucking truck”!!!
Baud
@trollhattan:
IIRC, the decision to invade Iraq was disastrous and the occupation was disastrous, but the military campaign was ably handled.
raven
@Baud: Because they have little of either.
Kent
Which part of the military campaign? The first 3 weeks or the “surge”?
Baud
@raven:
Good reason.
dmsilev
@Omnes Omnibus: Maybe the ground is already muddy enough that they have no choice but to stay on the road?
Baud
@Kent:
The very beginning of the invasion to the fall of Baghdad. First three weeks, I guess.
My memory may be hazy though.
zhena gogolia
@japa21: Thanks. Scary thread. So I think I’ll stop reading it.
Suzanne
@Yarrow: Wendy Rogers is batshit insane and has been for decades.
eclare
@raven: I took a logistics class in college as a business elective taught by a retired Army veteran. I can’t remember his rank, maybe Major.
Omnes Omnibus
@Baud: Yet. I don’t know. But damn.
zhena gogolia
@eclare: Read the intervening replies.
Spanky
@Omnes Omnibus:
No man, the A10 pilots.
Omnes Omnibus
@dmsilev: Possibly. That isn’t good for the Russians.
WaterGirl
@Omnes Omnibus: Can you elaborate?
David ? ☘The Establishment☘? Koch
raven
@dmsilev: You don’t light out cross country with wheeled vehicles.
Matt McIrvin
@Brachiator: The US right’s shift toward Russia predated Trump. I think it started after 9/11 when Russia made a great show of being our ally against Muslim terrorists, and of course Russia played that up hugely in their fights with Chechen insurgents. But it really got momentum during the Obama years when Russia was targeting US evangelicals and portraying Putin as the protector of white Christendom–there was this implied comparison of Putin vs. Obama, that Putin unlike Obama was “a STRONG President who loved his country.” I think that was just part and parcel of the general freak-out over the President being black.
Geminid
@JoyceH: Zelensky won’t be there. These talks won’t accomplish much. Neither side is ready to stop shooting now, so there isn’t much that can be agreed on except the principle that there can be talks.
trollhattan
@Baud:
At the time I saw all that armor, etc. the PR campaign was still in full swing, so seeing all that equipment headed for the transport ships verified for me that the decision had been made and the bastards were just waving their arms pretending like it was still up for debate.
Had never seen so much hardware at one time, before or since. (Fleet in port excepted.)
zhena gogolia
Here’s a column in the Kyiv Independent about how foreigners can help.
https://kyivindependent.com/opinion/victor-tregubov-are-you-a-foreigner-who-wants-to-help-ukraine-heres-how/
zhena gogolia
@David ? ☘The Establishment☘? Koch: They were already panic-withdrawing on Thursday and Friday.
Miss Bianca
@Another Scott: Another thing I keep thinking about is how Ukraine kept saying, shh, shut up America, you’re overreacting. In hindsight, not such a good look.
But I find myself suspecting that Ukraine and the US might have been doing some double-teaming there. (“Psst…we’ll say “the Russians are coming, the Russians are coming! And you say, “Nah, mang, ain’t gonna happen, it’s all cool.””)
Now I know I’ve been cooped up too long – cabin fever is turning me into a conspiracy theorist.
David ? ☘The Establishment☘? Koch
T’anks for the memories:
Ukraine pounding Russian tanks and transports
Photo #1
Photo #2
JoyceH
@eclare: Years ago I was taking a Navy course (military law, I think), and some other guy in the same building was taking a different course, not sure what. I’d see him on class breaks sitting in the smoking area. (The Old Days!) He was working on a homework that involved loading some sort of landing vehicle. Had a cardboard chart and these little paper bits that represented the things to be loaded. Later on, I ran into him and asked how his homework turned out. He’d failed. Reason – he’d put the MAPS at the very back of the vehicle.
hotshoe
@Geminid:
@Miss Bianca:
Yes, just how many times did he fall out that window.
That’s the question I want to hear.
@Kelly:
Truck Got Stuck
one of my favorite (and hokey) country songs. And with a little subversive edge to it:
“We put what timber we had, underneath the wheels
And we was all out of sand, but managed to steal
Two sacks of the best modern canola seed you ever did see … “
Miki
Works for me.
eclare
@JoyceH: OMG!
Martin
Ignore what I suggest here when Adam weighs in, but this is turning into a very clear proxy war with the US/NATO/EU acting through Ukraine to engage with Russia directly, which is both about as safely as you can do it while still engaging with Russia, and pretty fucking effective if it works. I think this is why Estonia and Finland and Germany are departing with either tradition or national law or seemingly common sense. I mean, Russia just threatened Finland, so why give away your anti-tank weapons? Because if Ukraine can kill the russian armor, then the threat goes away. This is everyones best opportunity to deal with Putin, so it looks like everyone is going in.
The problem is that while this is trivially explained as purely a defense of Ukrainian sovereignty, Putin is welcome to make his own interpretation and see it as US/NATO/EU trying to take him down a peg, which isn’t wrong, it’s just that he started it. Putin is not a rational actor here. He’s not a steward of the Russian army – the Russian army is a personal asset of his. This is why Trump was such a problem – if his pizza took more than 30 minutes, he felt he had the right to send in Seal Team 6 to liquidate the franchise.
Baud
@Matt McIrvin:
Wasn’t the shirtless Putin on horseback meme from the Obama period and part of all that propaganda?
raven
@eclare: Was it good?
Jinchi
@David ? ☘The Establishment☘? Koch:
We were repeatedly told that sanctions wouldn’t work.
WaterGirl
@Miss Bianca: I suggested weeks ago that it might have been a choreographed two-step between Biden and Zelensky.
I don’t know if that’s what happened or not, but I didn’t think that was crazy talk then, and I don’t think it’s crazy talk now.
Baud
@Jinchi:
In the Twitter age, we are repeatedly told everything.
Miss Bianca
@Sebastian: I’ve been wondering how many Ukrainian-Americans are finding themselves feeling a sudden yen to
take an armed vacation invisit the old country again right now.eclare
@raven: He was a good teacher, and it was a good class. We had multiple choice quizzes every Friday, and we had to answer Alpha, Bravo, Charlie, etc.
I also remember that he had amazing posture, for some reason.
Feathers
One thing I think Putin may have underestimated is the freedom to act Biden would now have after having pulled out of Afghanistan. This whole mess was undoubtedly planned before that happened, and there may very welll not have been a rethinking when it happened.
I see many people posting about why are we going so hard now when we didn’t before? Being tied up in Iraq and Afghanistan was surely a large part of it.
Also, it wasn’t as clear that Putin’s danger wasn’t just internal. Brexit and the 2016 election showed that clearly. Trump probably would have handed Putin Ukraine on a platter in his second term. Putin was able to grow for four years without US intelligence sharing what it knew with allies. Something more than we currently know about spooked the countries of Europe. Maybe it was the papers stashed at Mar A Lago.
I really hope this ends as well as it can for Ukraine and that it also brings a real commitment to unrolling the corrupt money laundering asset hiding financial system that allowed this to happen. Really going after the Russian buyout of right wing America is overdue as well. Hoping that this is a cluestick for the Village to see that being beholden to Putin is not a good thing.
Omnes Omnibus
@WaterGirl: I am reminded of the Syria crisis and how people were freaking that Kerry had gone crazy and was saber-rattling. Then it turned out to be part of a coordinated strategy.
Odie Hugh Manatee
Shit… we’re almost at 1 Tbogg unit. Must be serious…
Thanks for the thoughts on this, Adam. ?
Omnes Omnibus
@Feathers: Too many people at home and abroad saw the withdrawal as a sign of weakness. It was instead a sign of strength in that the US could finally cut its losses and remain the major player in the international scene.
JPL
@japa21: Thanks. I was called away.
Miss Bianca
@Quiltingfool: I love blue, white, and yellow together – some of my favorite color combos. With sunflowers, that would be lovely.
Raven Onthill
@Redshift: one report I’ve seen, and I think likely, is that the Russian units in Belarus are rotten with covid. It could be affecting their readiness and morale.
JPL
@zhena gogolia: Next time, I’ll include the entire link. McFaul still has a lot of connections in Russia, so is trustworthy.
zhena gogolia
@Feathers:
Very good point.
Wapiti
@Martin: related to the NATO partners’ action, yesterday or Friday President Biden announced some large amount ($150M ?) of military aid for Ukraine. And while such aid won’t get there fast enough, it does tell the Ukrainians: “We’ll help you replace any ammo you use against Putin this month.”
Miss Bianca
@Omnes Omnibus: Just sitting there? Not moving? Because that’s a pretty terrifying-looking convoy (unlike the assclown convoy that stalled outside KC).
ETA: Ah, I see what you said. Damn, Skippy. Did they just run out of fuel? Are they waiting for orders?
David ? ☘The Establishment☘? Koch
Dirty rats fleeing sinking ship
Captain C
@Morzer: So, something like this.
Another Scott
(via Popehat)
Cheers,
Scott.
Matt McIrvin
@Feathers: Putin thought that after 4 years of Trump and COVID knocking the world flat, NATO was a paper tiger and would fall apart if he made even an implicit nuclear threat.
Jay
@Jinchi:
all forces use quick signifiers to identify “friendly” from “hostile” forces, more so when it takes an expert eye or in some cases, a serial number to differentiate between a T-64M and a T-64BM.
The signifier will be crude, easily identified, because it will be applied at the last minute, to try to keep it secret, so the “hostile forces” can’t easily use it to sow confusion.
NATO forces tend to use digital signifiers.
Leto
@Omnes Omnibus: you know how many times I’ve heard, “This’ll be awesome!” :)
persistentillusion
@debbie: Cockers don’t have coarse coats like the dog pictured. Grew up in a family that bred Cockers so that Mom and Dad didn’t have to directly talk about SECHS. Look, animals reproducing, deduct from that!
Miss Bianca
@WaterGirl: Well now that I’ve seen what a good dancer Zelenskyy is, the two-stepping part definitely seems more plausible to me.//
David ? ☘The Establishment☘? Koch
Even the Drooonze are getting into the fight:
Droooonze take out Russian column (video)
Another Scott
This seems significant, and some Twitterers are saying that they have already arrived (without providing any evidence other than the time stamp difference).
i24News.TV (reprinting an AFP story):
FWIW.
Cheers,
Scott.
japa21
It is 2 AM in Kyiv. Has anybody heard anything about what is happening there?
Peale
@Martin: I’m hoping that they have better intelligence than I do about what Putin might do.
Raven Onthill
Another Scott
@japa21: VladDavidzon is still up apparently.
(It being Kyiv.)
HTH a little.
Cheers,
Scott.
Captain C
@David ? ☘The Establishment☘? Koch: As I (and many others) have said, Putin only retains power over the oligarchs as long as he protects their interests. Like a mob boss, once he can’t do that anymore, his lifespan can be measured in days at best.
Kind of like the last 15 or so minutes of Casino, when, once the Feds got in, lots of people got clipped, except in this analogy Remo Gaggi would have been the one who fucked up and got whacked.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@JPL:
Well…. that’s probably the worst thing I’ve seen all day
Jay
Orxy has had to add a new category to his tracking of losses,
“RUF armored vehicles stolen by Ukrainian Civilians”
Suzanne
A thought I have had today…. it seems like Trump’s (and Tucker’s) Putin blowjobs might just be the thing that cracks their edifice of support. Just a little. Like, I think it is undeniable at this point that Trump is dumb as a fucking stump, and traitorous. His die-hards will of course ride or die for him, that’s not who I’m talking about. But he also had the support or at least the allyship of a bunch of people who think he’s a useful idiot and who want his cohort in their coalitions. And it feels like this might have just demonstrated that he’s not actually a very useful idiot. More like a superfluous idiot. It only matters at the margins, but that’s a step.
Am I too optimistic in thinking that these events will get the GOP to firmly sideline him?
Captain C
@Jay: Kind of like the invasion stripes on Allied D-Day aircraft. At that point, it was more important to avoid friendly ground fire than hide from Nazi planes (as there were very few Nazi planes left available to attack the invaders, seeing as how they were needed to defend the Fatherland from bombers and provide what little support they could on the Eastern Front.
Miss Bianca
@Suzanne: Perhaps too optimistic – what I’m hoping for, more than Republicans to finally find a spine, is that the great mass of mushy middle “both sides are the same” folks wake up and realize, oh hey – maybe both sides are *not* the same. Maybe the difference between one party sucking up to Putin and one not sucking up to Putin really *is* a bigger deal than they thought.
That’s why I keep hoping more keeps coming out about Russian-Trump connections in the January 6 committee hearings.
Another Scott
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
“Yes sir” only goes so far.
Cheers,
Scott.
Sebastian
@Omnes Omnibus:
They are not going to survive the night.
This is the rush to obey Putin’s order to take Kyiv by Monday. Ukrainians are going to Javelin and NLAW the whole convoy after Bayraktars take out the front and back.
This is going to be a massacre.
WaterGirl
@zhena gogolia: zhena, if you go to the WAR IN UKRAINE link in the blue category bar up top, i have McFaul’s twitter link in there.
Can you see if you are able to right-click on that to open it incognito mode?
I think you’re on a computer or a table, if you’re on a phone, you can find WAR IN UKRAINE in the hamburger menu there.
Kirk Spencer
@Jinchi:
IFF.
Raven Onthill
These sharp observations from Carole Cadwalladr, who reported the Cambridge Analytica story in the UK, on the information war.
And, damnit, when McFaul is worried, raising concern is not fearmongering.
JPL
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Yes it is.
SiubhanDuinne
@Miki:
Love that!
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@Raven Onthill: The argument McFaul is talking about is basically the Russians have gone Imperial Japanese fatalistically stupid; “we’re going to win again the odds because of our superior willpower” and when that does not happen “we will all die together rather than endure the shame of defeat.”
SiubhanDuinne
Not to trivialise this thread at all, but we are just six comments away from a TBogg Unit.
Curtis
Just chipping in to push this post to a Tbogg unit. Wonder when the EU fighter jets they’re giving to Ukraine will arrive.
https://twitter.com/AVindman/status/1498092550162366464
Yarrow
Are we gonna TBogg this bitch?
Enhanced Voting Techniques
Here is a read what they think Putin’s nuclear order (might) mean
https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2022/02/what-just-happened-putins-nuclear-forces-heres-what-experts-say/362501/
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@SiubhanDuinne: well, I’ll do my bit
I’m looking up-thread for a comment about an unidentified plane heading to Moscow, and speculation that it represents some diplomatic activity? I thought I saw something earlier that Zelensky asked the Israelis to act as intermediaries. Has anyone else seen that?
David ? ☘The Establishment☘? Koch
TBogg Unit
Leto
T-Bogg or bust!
Miss Bianca
@Raven Onthill: your concern is noted. And yes, Cadwalladr is making some good points, but they are no surprise to anyone who has bothered to follow Adam Silverman’s posts here.
They may news to normies, I’ll grant you that.
Kayla Rudbek
@Sebastian: and that a boat is a hole in the water that you pour money into.
WaterGirl
@Miss Bianca: I thought that was a really good tweet thread. I was thinking of front-paging it in fact. So well laid out, step by step. You didn’t think it was good?
Another Scott
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: My comment at #401. It landed (presumably in Moscow) a while ago.
Here’s a January story (in Polish) about the plane.
HTH a little.
Cheers,
Scott.
Miss Bianca
@WaterGirl: Did I say I didn’t think they were good?
I said, they’re no surprise to anyone who’s been following Adam’s posts here since, oh, say, 2016 at least.
Raven Onthill
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: McFaul says that Putin is increasingly isolated and irrational. I wonder if perhaps Putin isn’t suffering from covid-induced dementia, which seems to be a thing. Even if has has never had covid, he is after all an old man.
That whole “we will die gloriously” thing crops up in Russian (and Western) culture as Christian martyrdom, but it has been centuries since it has been seen in its most lethal form.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Another Scott: thanks– here’s hoping someone can convince Putin to climb down (I am not optimistic)
(and alas, my Polish ends at gin dobre)
Geminid
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: The NYT and the Times of Israel reported on a Friday call between Zelensky and Israeli Prime Minister Bennet in which Zelenski asked that Bennet mediate a resolution of the conflict, citing Israel’s “good relationship” with Russia and Ukraine. Zelenski has also asked Erdogan of Turkey to do the same. I think Zelenski knows this conflict cannot be resolved diplomatically at this time, but he is looking forward to a time when it could be, and Israel and/or Turkey might help.
An article tonight in the Times of Israel reprted that Bennet and Putin have talked on the phone, and Putin rejected Bennet’s mediation.
WaterGirl
@Miss Bianca: Maybe I interpreted your initial comment wrong. I was seriously asking, not accusing. :-)
The Pale Scot
HA Ha! So it could be a Scottie..
But the paws are too big and the ears from what I can see are too smal
What set me off was the overcoat and greying neck.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Geminid: thanks
hardly surprising, alas
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@Raven Onthill: Well, for my money, when you have stories of whole Russian unites mutinying rather than deploy to the Ukraine the will for a Japanese 1945 self immolation isn’t there. I will also note a lot of the Japanese leadership wanted a way out of a mass grave and it took them a while to find the excuse to marginalize the crazies.
The other article says they think Putin’s order was basically administrative.
Matt McIrvin
@Raven Onthill: The rumors are that Putin has isolated himself in a bubble for fear of COVID, to an absurd degree. He’s in his late sixties but as far as I know he doesn’t have any particular immunosuppressed condition–if he gets a decent vaccine in him, which Putin of all people must be able to score, he ought to be able to slap on a mask and interact with people to at least the degree that my parents and in-laws do. But he requires multiple layers of distancing protocols and checks just for people to talk to him. The pandemic combined with the debilitating effects of absolute power may be getting to him psychologically, even if he never got the virus. Especially if he never got the virus.
Geminid
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Putin has not yet given up on gaining a military advantage in Ukraine, so he’s not going to ask for another country’s mediation at this point. That could change. Israel does have good relations with Ukraine, economic and otherwise. Israel also has a lot of high level talks with Russian government officials, and one of the first places Bennet visited after he became Prime Minister last year was Moscow. He met with Putin, as his predecessor, Netanyahu, had done several times in recent years.
The reason the Israelis talk to the Russians so much is that Russia has an airbase in Northeast Syria with advanced anti-aircraft missiles that cover the skies of Lebanon and Syria (and parts of Israel for that matter). Israel has been conducting a bombing campaign against Iranian assets in Syria for years, with qualified acquiescence from the Russians. That has entailed a lot of deconfliction. I think this problem would keep the Israelis from being good mediators, but they may still provide a good channel for communication.
Peale
@Matt McIrvin: I don’t know enough about Kremlinology to figure out who the actual enforcers are that he has loyal to him. But based on his behavior, one wouldn’t even need much of a coup. These billionaire industrialist types could just hire maskless workers to brick in his door. He wouldn’t even know it was happening since he won’t leave his room unless he needs to.
If we can get out of this without mushroom clouds, I’m not going to shed a tear if people pay attention enough over the next few days as to just how much their own leaders were raking it in with a few dozen billionaires feeding them.
Another Scott
Meanwhile, …
(Emphasis added.)
Clown. He (and his team) can’t get the simplest things straight.
Grr…,
Scott.
Peale
@Geminid: I would like a third party mediator who isn’t the US, I know that the blob will crow, but the US doesn’t need to sign onto another agreement that Putin will not uphold. If Ukraine does manage to move this to a stalemate or make Putin reconsider his strategy again, then we shouldn’t be in the room talking about them. They can negotiate on their own. Will never happen though, because the blob likes to think nothing this big should happen without the US taking the lead.
Peale
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: He probably thinks of Israel as a US puppet. Little does he know…
Ksmiami
@Sebastian: I hope so. Eliminate that convoy.
Matt McIrvin
I also hope that Xi Jinping is paying very close attention to the international response here.
Geminid
@Peale: Putin would never agree to mediation by the U.S. or most any NATO countries, because they have allied with Ukraine. Turkey might be an exception. They are a regional power and have decent relations with both Russia and Ukraine. Although Turkey supplied Ukraine with many of the drones that are wreaking havoc on Russian forces, I don’t believe that they are shipping more now that war has broken out.
Putin won’t ask Turkey or anyone else to mediate this conflict until he decides this war will not be won, though. His forces in Ukraine may force this decision. Some now seem to be engaging in passive and not-so-passive mutiny.
Ruckus
@Kayla Rudbek:
As I said earlier in this post, I was the owner of a big enough boat that it couldn’t be trailered, it sat in the water or in a boat yard. The premise that a boat is a hole in the water into which you pour money is true and the premise also extends to the blocks in the boatyard.
J R in WV
I hope the convoy of many dozens of Russian (not Soviet) weapons and trucks is stopped and obliterated.
I want to thank Adam and all the jackals who contributed to this post and thread, very informative. I especially liked the Russian tanks and tracked weapons abandoned, stuck, and otherwise disabled, with Ukranians raiding those units for weapons and ammo. The later post with the video of the drone weapon explosion, followed by various secondary munitions blowing off, wonderful.
Also that drunk ramming other boats in the Sarasota yacht basin with his yacht — hysterical. Hope I don’t have to attempt to build a fallout shelter, not the best weather for that exercise. Have the equipment, but OMG, not now….
Ruckus
@Raven Onthill:
Vova isn’t that old.
I’m older than him and I know a bunch of people older than I am, some a couple of decades older.
That’s not to say that he isn’t insane, deranged, diseased, out of his fucking mind….
Captain C
@Matt McIrvin: He may also be scared of poisoning, biological assassination (an ex-KGB-er would have at least a great imagination about such), or suchlike. He has to know that a lot of people legit would like him off the board by whatever means necessary at this point.
BTW, I saw someone with your name post something on one of my friend Chad’s (the physicist) Facebook posts. Was that you? If so, how do you know him? (I went to college with him.)
opiejeanne
@Raven Onthill: He’s 69. I wouldn’t necessarily call that an old man.